Hurricane Season 2022

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"Although the cyclone threat is easing, heavy rainfall, flooding and damaging winds remain hazards right across the Top End for the remainder of this week and into the weekend," the Bureau of Meteorology's Jude Scott said.

"Daily rainfall totals of 50 to 100 millimetres of forecast with more than 200 millimetres a possibility in some locations close to the system."

The cyclone is now moving west over the Top End, with sustained winds of 75 kilometres per hour near its centre with gusts of up to 100 kilometres per hour.

It is expected to weaken to below cyclone strength later today as it moves over the lower Top End, bringing strong winds and heavy rainfall.

Ms Scott said Tiffany was forecast to “track quite quickly” across the base of the Top End.

"The Top End community should be prepared for wet and windy conditions and flash flooding as we move into a vigorous active monsoon phase for the remainder of this week and into the weekend," she said.

https://www.abc.net.au/ne(...)ing-bom-nt/100751238

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Op vrijdag 4 februari 2022 14:19 schreef Frutsel het volgende:
Nog een invest ten oosten van Batsirai

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Active Atlantic hurricane season expected once again, AccuWeather forecasters say
People in the hurricane-prone parts of the U.S. should get an early start on preparations, AccuWeather forecasters advise -- especially since tropical development could begin ahead of the actual start of hurricane season.

The Atlantic hurricane season is two months away, with the official start arriving on June 1, but AccuWeather forecasters released predictions for the coming season this week, noting that there is a high chance for a preseason storm to develop and that another active tropical season is expected. AccuWeather forecasters emphasized that now is the time to prepare, especially since some communities are still recovering from devastating storms over the last couple of years.

The past two hurricane seasons were extraordinarily active, as AccuWeather meteorologists predicted, with the historic 2020 season reaching unprecedented levels and setting a new record for the number of named storms with 30. The 2021 tropical year was almost as prolific with 21 named storms, making it the third most active on record in terms of named systems. It also forced meteorologists to use the entirety of the designated storm name list for the second straight season.

Of course, the seasons prior to 2020 and 2021 certainly weren’t underachievers, with the devastating trio of major hurricanes -- Harvey, Irma and Maria -- striking over a one-month stretch in 2017, and hurricanes Florence and Michael blasting parts of the Southeast in 2018. In fact, the last season with a below-normal number of named storms was 2015

So what can residents living in hurricane-prone areas of the United States expect in 2022? More of the same, unfortunately.

AccuWeather’s team of tropical weather forecasters, led by veteran meteorologist and hurricane expert Dan Kottlowski, is once again predicting an above-normal season in terms of tropical activity in the Atlantic, as well as a higher-than-normal chance that a major hurricane could make landfall in the mainland United States, Puerto Rico and the U.S Virgin Islands.

Specifically, Kottlowski’s team is forecasting 16-20 named storms and six to eight hurricanes. Of those hurricanes, about three to five are forecast to reach major hurricane status, which occurs when a storm reaches Category 3 strength with winds exceeding 111 mph or higher.

AccuWeather’s forecast of 16-20 named storms is higher than the 30-year average of 14 per year, while the projection of six to eight hurricanes is about in line with the normal of seven. It’s also nearly identical to how 2021 played out. Last year, the 21 named storms included seven hurricanes and four major hurricanes. Eight of those storms made a direct impact on the U.S. About four to six direct impacts are predicted for 2022.

In order to make such a long-range prediction, Kottlowski’s team studied a number of current weather trends, past hurricane seasons and climatological models to help piece together this meteorological puzzle. Here’s a deeper look at how several influential factors will shape the 2022 season.

La Ni�a once again expected to play a key role
The climatological phenomenon known as La Ni�a can help shape weather patterns worldwide, and in particular, play a major factor in how active a hurricane season can become.

La Ni�a is part of a three-pronged climatological pattern known as the El Ni�o Southern Oscillation [ENSO], which is a short-term climate fluctuation that is determined by the warming or cooling of the waters in the equatorial Pacific Ocean.

When sea-surface temperatures are anomalously warm in this part of the Pacific and stay that way over a period of 12-18 months, climate experts say an El Ni�o phase is underway. When the reverse is true, and water temperatures are lower than average, a La Ni�a phase is declared. The third phase, ENSO-neutral, is when water temperatures are around average.

lees hier verder

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The same storm that has soaked portions of the central Appalachians and mid-Atlantic region for days could eventually transform into the first named tropical depression or named system of the 2022 Atlantic hurricane season, AccuWeather forecasters say.

The system in question is still days away from taking shape, but even if a tropical or subtropical system doesn't take shape, adverse coastal conditions loom for areas from New York to Florida.

Even though rain will slowly retreat from northwest to southeast across much of the Northeast and mid-Atlantic, winds will kick up along the mid-Atlantic and southern New England coasts this weekend.

By midday on Mother's Day, clouds may break at times from the central Appalachians to the interior mid-Atlantic and southern New England. Cool conditions with highs ranging from the 50s to the mid-60s may still prompt the need for a jacket or sweater for those heading out for Mother's Day dinners.

https://www.accuweather.c(...)er&utm_medium=social

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Op dinsdag 24 mei 2022 18:20 schreef -Sigaartje het volgende:
We beginnen weer!

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The 2022 East Pacific hurricane season began less than two weeks ago on May 15, and AccuWeather meteorologists are already tracking two areas of interest in the basin. Forecasters say one zone, in particular, stands a significant chance of spawning the first named storm of the season, which may go on to strike southern Mexico during the last days of May.

Satellite imagery on Wednesday depicted several large clusters of showers and thunderstorms roaming the waters south of Mexico. On Thursday, those scattered storms continued to largely remain offshore from Mexico's Pacific Coast. None of the areas showed signs of a counterclockwise circulation, which could indicate the early stages of tropical development, but forecasters expect that to change later this week.

"The area of most significant concern is near the southern coast of Mexico where low pressure is expected to develop around the end of this week," AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Adam Douty said.


https://www.accuweather.c(...)er&utm_medium=social

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Op zondag 29 mei 2022 19:10 schreef Starhopper het volgende:
Kan het gebeuren dat ze de oversteek over land aardig weet te overleven en in de golf nog ellende gaat veroorzaken?

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Op woensdag 1 juni 2022 13:20 schreef Frutsel het volgende:
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Iet giet Oan

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Op zaterdag 4 juni 2022 18:00 schreef -Sigaartje het volgende:
De resten van die Pacifistische orkaan van een paar dagen terug komen dus weer tot leven.

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Op zaterdag 4 juni 2022 18:13 schreef aloa het volgende:

[..]
De eerste in de pacific gaat (zeer waarschijnlijk) de eerste in de Atlantische oceaan worden.

Best wel uniek volgens mij.

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Op zaterdag 4 juni 2022 18:14 schreef -Sigaartje het volgende:

[..]
Ja, en zo te zien wordt het een grotesk ding.

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Op donderdag 23 juni 2022 13:57 schreef Frutsel het volgende:
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The Atlantic hurricane season has been in slumber for nearly a month, but don’t expect it to remain quiet for too much longer because the peak of hurricane season is on the way.

Tropical Storm Colin, which briefly impacted the coastal Carolinas with heavy rain and gusty winds on July 2 and 3, was the last system to roam the Atlantic Basin.

However, it’s not unusual for a lull in activity in the tropics in June or July before the season begins to ramp up in August.

According to the National Hurricane Center, an average June in the Atlantic features one named storm every one to two years, while July averages one named storm each year.

But as you can see in the graph below, roughly 90% of an average Atlantic hurricane season is still remaining as we head into August.

The period from August through early October tends to produce the most hurricanes and tropical storms in an average year. September is the single most active month of the Atlantic hurricane season, with Sept. 10 marking the official seasonal peak.

Consequently, this same period is typically when the strongest, most impactful hurricanes roam the Atlantic Basin.

Just in the last five years – from 2017 through 2021 – the US was struck by four hurricanes in August, five in September and four in October. That included last year’s Hurricane Ida, which devastated parts of southeastern Louisiana after making landfall as a Category 4 hurricane on Aug. 29.

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Orkaanseizoen op Atlantische Oceaan blijft op zich wachten. Redenen en gevolgen!

Wie gek is op tropische stormen heeft net zoals de onweerliefhebbers een zware tijd. Momenteel is er van onweer in de Benelux amper sprake en dat kunnen we ook zeggen over de ontwikkeling van orkanen op de Atlantische Oceaan. Ten westen van Afrika start traditioneel de aanvoer van vochtige en warme luchtmassa’s rond deze tijd van het jaar. Eenmaal boven de Atlantische Oceaan kunnen lagedrukgebieden aan kracht winnen door het warme zeewater en weinig windschering.

Dat het orkaanseizoen momenteel niet op gang wil komen heeft ook haar invloed op het Europees weerbeeld. Vaak hebben dergelijke tropische systemen of ex-orkanen een bepalende invloed op het weerbeeld in West-Europa. De vorming van blokkades (al dan niet tijdelijk) door lagedruk en hogedruk kan op dit moment niet geforceerd worden door dergelijke systemen. Het is dus hoogstwaarschijnlijk aan te nemen dat het huidig weertype met droogte in grote delen van Europa niet meteen op de schop gaat.



Droogte in Europa is ook goed te zien op bovenstaande kaart. Het volume water aanwezig in de waterlopen is in vele regio’s minder dan tegenover de referentieperiode 1980-2021 (@dr_xeo)

Mocht het orkaanseizoen niet op gang komen, kunnen we de vergelijking gaan maken met 1914. Toen was er slechts 1 tropische storm te bespeuren en geen enkele orkaan. In tijden van klimaatopwarming zou je toch veronderstellen dat het dit jaar anders moet verlopen door de extra energie die beschikbaar is in de atmosfeer. Wat is er aan de hand?

ACE score blijft onder normaal

Aangezien er momenteel weinig tot geen tropische depressies zijn op de Atlantische Oceaan is onderstaande ACE score eerder laag te noemen. De parameter wordt berekend door elke 6 uur de maximale windsnelheid in knopen te bepalen. Als er dus weinig tot geen depressies met wind actief zijn, is het logisch dat de curve erg laag blijft. Meer informatie over de ACE-index.


Meestel kent het orkaanseizoen al enkele tropische stormen in de maand juli en augustus. Nu zien we dat 2022 op vlak van ACE-score eerder bedroevend laag scoort. Realtime grafiek

Saharazand als storende factor?

Meteorologen en weerdiensten wereldwijd gaan bij een afwijking zoals hierboven al snel op zoek naar verklaringen. Een mogelijke antwoord ligt in de hoeveelheid Saharazand die vanaf het westen van Afrika over delen van het Atlantisch Bassin trekt. Door de filterende functie van de aerosolen is het zeewater ten westen van Afrika niet echt heel erg warm tegenover normaal. Tevens zorgt de dikke laag aan zand ook voor een ongunstig klimaat met droge en hete luchtlagen.


Ten westen van Afrika zien we de storende factor voor tropische depressies erg goed. Grote hoeveelheid Saharazand veroveren het centraal en oostelijk deel van de Atlantische Oceaan. (tropics)

Piek van het orkaanseizoen moet nog komen

Ondanks de trage start van het Atlantisch orkaanseizoen maken weinig meteorologen zich zorgen. Het is namelijk de verwachting dat we vanaf dit moment en zeker in september en oktober moeten rekening houden met tropisch geweld. Dan wordt de temperatuur van het zeewater optimaal benut door allerlei ‘tropische systemen’ en kan het snel gaan. Voorwaarde is dat de factor Saharazand dan wel wat afneemt en dat de windschering niet significant gaat stijgen. Windschering kan een goed georganiseerd stormsysteem namelijk helemaal in de war sturen en ‘uit elkaar trekken’.

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Op donderdag 1 september 2022 12:04 schreef Frutsel het volgende:

[..]
@:Danielle op komst

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Op vrijdag 23 september 2022 17:08 schreef Momo het volgende:
[ twitter ]

Hermine gaat ie waarschijnlijk heten

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Op vrijdag 23 september 2022 17:08 schreef Momo het volgende:
[ twitter ]

Hermine gaat ie waarschijnlijk heten

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Op woensdag 5 oktober 2022 09:14 schreef Frutsel het volgende:
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