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De Verenigde Staten kennen extreme weersituaties. Tornado's en orkanen eisen elk jaar tientallen levens. Plotseling opkomende onweersbuien zijn vooral in Florida gevaarlijk. In bergachtige gebieden en in woestijnen neemt de grond weinig water op en veranderen beekjes als gevolg van hevige regenval plotseling in kolkende watermassa's.

Ook in Europa en in Nederland komen tornado's voor. Voor Europa hebben we inmiddels dit topic:
WKN / Tornado's in Europa #1


Tornado's

Tornado's ontstaan overal in de Verenigde Staten, maar het merendeel ten oosten van de Rocky Mountains in Texas, Kansas en Oklahoma, ook wel Tornado Alley genoemd. Jaarlijks razen ongeveer 1000 tornado's over de Verenigde Staten.

Er zijn twee tornadoseizoenen. De eerste is in april en mei en het tweede in november. In november beperken de tornado's zich tot Alabama, Mississippi en Louisiana.

Florida is berucht wegens het grote aantal onweersdagen. In Lightning Alley onweert het op meer dan 90 dagen per jaar.

Tornado's vs Orkanen

Tornado's worden vaak verward met Orkanen. Terwijl tornado's lokaal veel schade aan kunnen richten hebben we het bij tornado's over een klein gebied (enkele kilometers in doorsnee) waarbij de zware tornado's windsnelheden van 400-500km/u kunnen halen en daar totale verwoesting aanrichten. Vaak duurt een tornado hooguit enkele minuten of incidenteel tientallen minuten.

zie ook: Tornado information - Wiki en Tornado Fujita Scale

Als je wilt weten wat de schade kan zijn bij verschillende tornado's kijk je even hier waar in foto's wordt afgebeeld wat de schade is.
https://watchers.news/201(...)age-scale-in-images/

Orkanen daarentegen zijn enorme (onweers-/noodweer) complexen die honderden kilometers qua omtrek kunnen zijn waarbij de zwaarste orkanen windsnelheden van 250-300+ km/u worden gehaald en er een vloedgolf aan water mee komt die meters hoog het land op wordt gestuwd. Tevens kunnen deze complexen wel een dag aanhouden en daarbij enorme hoeveelheden neerslag laten neerdalen op een enorm groot gebied.

Meer informatie over de orkanen vindt je hier:
WKN / Hurricane Season 2014: Orkanen & Cyclonen



Tornado risico per maand


Het Amerikaanse Weather Channel geeft bij elke voorwaarschuwing aan wat de risico's zijn voor die dag en de dagen er na. Dit noemen ze de "TOR:CON" waarde. Aan de hand van die waarde wordt bepaald wat het tornado risico zal zijn:

quote:
8+ Very high probability of a tornado
6 - High probability of a tornado
4 - Moderate chance of a tornado nearby, but hail and/or high wind gusts possible
2 - Low chance of a tornado, but hail and/or high wind gusts possible
0 - Near-zero chance of a tornado or a severe thunderstorm
De TOR:CON index loopt van 0 tot 10. Vermenigvuldig het getal met 10% om het risicopercentage te krijgen dat een tornado binnen 50 mijl het aangegeven gebied zal treffen.

The birth of an EF-4 tornado

Enkele site's voor informatie:
National Weather Service
Tornado Records
Storm Reports
AccuWeather
SevereStudios met live-stormchase map
National Center for Atmospheric Research
Current Cape & Lift USA
Weatheronline Expert maps
Chasing-Live.net

Weather Channel Live Zend uit als het echt *nodig* is :)
Weather Channel Live

Tv-Stations USA by state
Newslink TV-stations by state

News channels Alabama:
CBS42
Fox Alabama Live
ABC3340
WBRC

News channels Arkansas:
KATV
Fox16

News channels Indiana
channel 14

News channels Kansas:
KAKE
KSN
Kansas Weather Channel LiveStream

News channels Mississippi
MS NewsNow
WCBI

News channels Nebraska
KETV
NBC Nebraska

News channels Texas:
TXCN
KXXV
KLTV
TexasStormChasers

News channels Oklahoma:
News9
KFOR
Oklahoma Weather Tracker

News channel Louisiana/Kentucky
Wave 3 News

News channel North Carolina
9 WNCT

Tornadochasers
Tornadovideos.net
Tornado titans
Kansas Twisters
Tornadocentral
Texas Storm Chasers
Storm Trackers

Mayflower, AK, EF5 tornado april 2014
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El Reno, OK, EF5 tornado 31 mei 2013 - R.I.P. Team Twistex
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Moore, OK, EF5 tornado 20 mei 2013
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Joplin EF5 Tornado 22 mei 2011
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Tornado Outbreak 27 April 2011
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Tuscaloosa EF4 Tornado 27 April 2011
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hagelstorm Oklahoma City 16 mei 2010
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Yazoo City EF4 24 april 2010
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Parkersburg EF5 Tornado 25 mei 2008
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Greensburg EF5 4 mei 2007
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Nieuwsberichten, foto's, filmpjes over tornado's, onweer, overstromingen etc etc kun je hier in dit topic kwijt.

Vorige delen
Topicreeks: Weeralarm VS
pi_187145668
Tornado Emergency voor Kansas City

spann twitterde op woensdag 29-05-2019 om 01:41:02 KMBC chopper pilot suggests the tornado near Linwood Kansas is nearly one mile wide. Rain wrapped. https://t.co/lh5rST37My reageer retweet
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NWSKansasCity twitterde op woensdag 29-05-2019 om 01:43:32 Debris is falling from the sky from this tornado as far away as Tonganoxie, KS!Take shelter now if in the path! reageer retweet
pi_187145704
quote:
0s.gif Op woensdag 29 mei 2019 01:42 schreef Houtenbeen het volgende:
Tornado Emergency voor Kansas City

spann twitterde op woensdag 29-05-2019 om 01:41:02 KMBC chopper pilot suggests the tornado near Linwood Kansas is nearly one mile wide. Rain wrapped. https://t.co/lh5rST37My reageer retweet
[ afbeelding ]
Zit ik ook te volgen, flinke jongen.
Deze gek is zojuist in z'n auto gestapt, eerst nam hij nog de moeite om zich binnen te verschuilen maar toen hij hoorde dat de tornado anderhalve kilometer breed was, is hij gelijk in z'n auto gestapt _O-
https://www.pscp.tv/AnonLogos/1DXxyNlDZwLKM
En wat live TV
https://www.pscp.tv/w/1zqKVazXjemxB?q=tornado
pi_187145729
NWSKansasCity twitterde op woensdag 29-05-2019 om 01:53:31 The large tornado is still on the ground and is approaching Interstate 70! We expected it to cross the interstate near the the Leavenworth and Wyandotte county border (just west of the KS Speedway) right around 7 PM CDT (or shortly after). reageer retweet
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BNONews twitterde op woensdag 29-05-2019 om 01:56:09 BREAKING: Tornado causes major damage in Linwood, Kansas; multiple buildings destroyed - Fox 4 https://t.co/witKEjHNk3 reageer retweet
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RyanMaue twitterde op woensdag 29-05-2019 om 02:01:25 Monster tornado on camera viewed over Legends Speedway I-70 & I-435 junction. https://t.co/zIhu9uw4zt reageer retweet


NWSKansasCity twitterde op woensdag 29-05-2019 om 02:17:52 Debris is falling from the sky from this tornado along I-70, north-northeast of Edwardsville, KSTake shelter now if you are in the path of this tornado! reageer retweet


[ Bericht 17% gewijzigd door Houtenbeen op 29-05-2019 02:19:03 ]
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NWStornado twitterde op woensdag 29-05-2019 om 03:00:48 Tornado Warning including Staten Island NY, Newark NJ, Elizabeth NJ until 9:30 PM EDT https://t.co/qxC0tXZeeV reageer retweet
Nu ook een Tornado warning voor Newark en New York
  Moderator woensdag 29 mei 2019 @ 08:03:29 #10
8781 crew  Frutsel
pi_187146743
quote:
Verenigde Staten getroffen door meer dan 50 tornado's in 24 uur tijd
Hevige tornado's houden de Verenigde Staten in de greep voor de twaalfde dag op rij. In 24 uur tijd raasden meer dan 50 tornado's door 8 verschillende staten. Ohio en Indiana zijn het zwaarst getroffen. Eén man kwam om het leven, 130 mensen raakten gewond en de materiële schade is enorm. Vijf miljoen mensen zitten zonder stroom.

In de stad Dayton in Ohio is de ravage enorm. Delen van de stad zijn volledig verwoest, huizen, elektriciteitspalen en ontelbare bomen gingen tegen de grond. Een 82-jarige man kwam om toen een geparkeerde auto in zijn huis sloeg.

Er werden windsnelheden opgetekend tot 225 kilometer per uur. In Oklahoma en Arkansas zijn rivieren buiten hun oevers getreden en staan hele buurten onder water. Het einde van het noodweer is nog niet in zicht.

"Tornado Alley"
De Verenigde Staten worden nu al twee weken geteisterd door een ongeziene reeks tornado's. Die razen vooral door het midwesten, dat trouwens bekend staat als "Tornado Alley". Het extreme weer wordt veroorzaakt door een mix van warme, vochtige lucht uit het zuidoosten en ongewone kou uit de Rocky Mountains. Maandag werd het huidige record verbroken van minstens acht tornado's per dag, gedurende 11 opeenvolgende dagen.

Dit jaar hebben 10 tornado's al het leven gekost aan 38 mensen in de VS. Ter vergelijking: in 2011 kwamen 161 mensen om en raakten er meer dan 1.100 gewond door een gigantische tornado in Missouri.

President Trump, die op staatsbezoek is in Japan, heeft via Twitter laten weten dat hij de situatie op de voet volgt.
  Moderator woensdag 29 mei 2019 @ 08:06:11 #11
8781 crew  Frutsel
  Moderator woensdag 29 mei 2019 @ 08:40:06 #12
8781 crew  Frutsel
  Moderator woensdag 29 mei 2019 @ 10:50:45 #13
8781 crew  Frutsel
pi_187148716
teringjantje :o
pi_187152000
Twister freaks die een raket met een sensor op de tornado bij Lawrence afvuren, "MONSTER WEDGE".
aaronjayjack twitterde op woensdag 29-05-2019 om 03:28:46 NEW VIDEO: Rocket Launch from Dominator 3 into wedge tornado just south of Lawrence, KS earlier tonight capturing incredible data! MISSION ACCOMPLISHED #kswx. @SeanSchofer @ReedTimmerAccu @ChasinSpin @curtisbrooks80 https://t.co/S1KRc2suwd reageer retweet
  woensdag 29 mei 2019 @ 16:11:58 #15
25889 Sitethief
Fulltime Flapdrol
pi_187153466
quote:
Tevens kunnen deze complexen wel een dag aanhouden en daarbij enorme hoeveelheden neerslag laten neerdalen op een enorm groot gebied.
Dat zijn korte orkanen zeg :D.
Stroek: Sitethief, die is heel groot en sterk :Y.
Faat: *zucht* zoals gewoonlijk hoor Sitethief weer in de bocht >:)
  donderdag 30 mei 2019 @ 20:57:20 #19
300435 Eyjafjallajoekull
Broertje van Katlaah
pi_187173632
Prachtig. Damn, ik zou dat toch graag eens in het echt willen zien, ookal is het allemaal vreselijk die schade.
Opgeblazen gevoel of winderigheid? Zo opgelost met Rennie!
pi_187216545
quote:
2s.gif Op donderdag 30 mei 2019 20:57 schreef Eyjafjallajoekull het volgende:
Prachtig. Damn, ik zou dat toch graag eens in het echt willen zien, ookal is het allemaal vreselijk die schade.
Zeker lijkt me heel indrukwekkend :)
pi_187318001
Reed Timmer lanceert raket in Tornado...

https://www.washingtonpos(...)m_term=.be49eab3d3da
  Moderator maandag 21 oktober 2019 @ 16:34:22 #22
8781 crew  Frutsel
pi_189549250
quote:
EF2 tornado rips through Dallas
An EF-2 tornado left major damage on structures and power towers in Dallas, USA on Sunday night, October 20, 2019. Authorities urged commuters to avoid affected areas as emergency services are conducting major roadway repairs.

According to the National Weather Service, the twister touched down near Love Field Airport around 21:30 LT before heading northeast through the city. No fatalities or injuries were reported as of 00:20 LT the following day, October 21, until the system pushed up through Arkansas killing one person.


  Moderator maandag 21 oktober 2019 @ 16:49:14 #23
8781 crew  Frutsel
  Moderator dinsdag 29 oktober 2019 @ 13:26:10 #24
8781 crew  Frutsel
pi_189683015
quote:
ICT: 2019 Dallas tornadoes the costliest tornado event in Texas history, USA

A tornado outbreak that hit Dallas on October 20, 2019, is now the costliest tornado event in the history of Texas and the 11th weather disaster in the USA in 2019 whose damage topped 1 billion dollars.

The Insurance Council of Texas (ICT) has estimated about $2 billion in insured losses following 9 tornadoes that ripped through North Texas on Sunday, October 20.

Preliminary projected estimates include over 30 000 auto and home claims. Commercial and business claims projections are still coming in at this time and the financial impact may likely rise.

"This makes the October 20th Dallas tornado outbreak the costliest tornado event in Texas history," ICT said.

In contrast, the Garland/Rowlett tornado of December 26, 2015, resulted in insured losses of $1.2 billion dollars.

"Sunday’s tornadoes, however, extended over a wider geographic span impacting a variety of homes and commercial property. The multiple tornadoes uprooted decades-old trees, brought down power lines, made many roads impassable and immeasurably changed the landscape of some neighborhoods."

Thankfully, despite the large scale property damage, there were no fatalities.

An EF-3 tornado was the first [and strongest] in the series of twisters which swept across a path almost 26 km (16 miles) in just over 30 minutes through the northern area of Dallas county. According to the National Weather Service, it had maximum winds of 225 km/h (140 mph).

A tornado outbreak that hit Dallas on October 20, 2019, is now the costliest tornado event in the history of Texas and the 11th weather disaster in the USA in 2019 whose damage topped 1 billion dollars.

The Insurance Council of Texas (ICT) has estimated about $2 billion in insured losses following 9 tornadoes that ripped through North Texas on Sunday, October 20.

Preliminary projected estimates include over 30 000 auto and home claims. Commercial and business claims projections are still coming in at this time and the financial impact may likely rise.

"This makes the October 20th Dallas tornado outbreak the costliest tornado event in Texas history," ICT said.

In contrast, the Garland/Rowlett tornado of December 26, 2015, resulted in insured losses of $1.2 billion dollars.

"Sunday’s tornadoes, however, extended over a wider geographic span impacting a variety of homes and commercial property. The multiple tornadoes uprooted decades-old trees, brought down power lines, made many roads impassable and immeasurably changed the landscape of some neighborhoods."

Thankfully, despite the large scale property damage, there were no fatalities.

An EF-3 tornado was the first [and strongest] in the series of twisters which swept across a path almost 26 km (16 miles) in just over 30 minutes through the northern area of Dallas county. According to the National Weather Service, it had maximum winds of 225 km/h (140 mph).

Furthermore, Garcia called $2 billion a "pretty conservative estimate" since the twisters did not just cause destruction to residential properties in North Dallas, but also to commercial establishments.

However, insurance industry meteorologist Bryan Wood does not agree with the figures. "Given that the majority of the damage in the tornado is EF-0 or EF-1, I believe that a $2 billion damage estimate is too high," he tweeted.

Wood added, "For comparison, the Joplin tornado, which had a much larger proportion of damage at EF3-plus, was $2.8 billion."

"From what I’ve seen, a lot of varying degrees of roof damage is the biggest damage mode. It does add up – but probably closer to $1 billion than $2 billion."
  Moderator maandag 6 januari 2020 @ 16:06:14 #25
8781 crew  Frutsel
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NWSShreveport twitterde op maandag 06-01-2020 om 14:03:38 A potentially significant severe weather event looks more likely by the end of this week as a powerful storm system enters the region. All modes of severe weather appear to be in play with this system. Prepare ahead and have your weather safety plan ready! #arwx #lawx #okwx #txwx https://t.co/CDLrPYnWHt reageer retweet


Komend weekend mogelijk noodweer voor delen Texas, Oklahoma, Arkansas en Louisiana
  dinsdag 7 januari 2020 @ 21:01:24 #26
83025 INViCTuS
Mountains & Nature
pi_190925640
quote:
0s.gif Op maandag 6 januari 2020 16:06 schreef Frutsel het volgende:
NWSShreveport twitterde op maandag 06-01-2020 om 14:03:38 A potentially significant severe weather event looks more likely by the end of this week as a powerful storm system enters the region. All modes of severe weather appear to be in play with this system. Prepare ahead and have your weather safety plan ready! #arwx #lawx #okwx #txwx https://t.co/CDLrPYnWHt reageer retweet
[ afbeelding ]

Komend weekend mogelijk noodweer voor delen Texas, Oklahoma, Arkansas en Louisiana
Vrijdag en zaterdag! Komt een portie koude lucht aan wat enorm gaat botsen met de huidige lucht. Reed was net al live met voorbeschouwing. In potentie kan dat een beste outbreak worden
Never Stop Exploring!
Life begins at the end of your comfort zone!
Follow me on Twitter: https://twitter.com/EdwinKr83 Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/edwinkr83/
pi_190952772
  vrijdag 10 januari 2020 @ 15:31:36 #28
83025 INViCTuS
Mountains & Nature
pi_190964873
Reed is onderweg. Zeer explosieve situatie. benieuwd wat er evt gaat komen
Never Stop Exploring!
Life begins at the end of your comfort zone!
Follow me on Twitter: https://twitter.com/EdwinKr83 Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/edwinkr83/
  Moderator vrijdag 10 januari 2020 @ 15:35:37 #29
8781 crew  Frutsel
pi_190964951
Moderate Risk is groter geworden


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spann twitterde op zaterdag 11-01-2020 om 19:19:49 We have confirmed 3 fatalities associated with the earlier tornado near Carrollton in Pickens County… West Alabama. reageer retweet
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At 11:18 AM CST, 3 WNW Carrollton [Pickens Co, AL] EMERGENCY MNGR reports TORNADO. *** 3 FATAL *** CORRECTS PREVIOUS TORNADO REPORT FROM 3 WNW CARROLLTON. *** 3 FATALITIES REPORTED *** HOUSE DAMAGED ON SETTLEMENT ROAD. TDS SIGNATURE.
"Light thinks it travels faster than anything. It doesn't. For wherever light travels it finds darkness has got there first and is waiting for it."
  zondag 12 januari 2020 @ 17:45:59 #32
307331 aloa
Steeds harder, steeds sneller
pi_190997376
Zeker elf doden door noodweer in zuiden van Verenigde Staten

Het noodweer dat over het zuidoosten van de Verenigde Staten raast, heeft aan minstens elf mensen het leven gekost. Door hevige wind en regenval zitten duizenden mensen in onder meer de staten Alabama, Louisiana en Texas zonder stroom.

Onder de doden zijn twee mensen die hielpen bij een ongeval als gevolg van het ijzige weer. In Alabama kwam iemand om het leven door een tornado. In Louisiana was de wind zo sterk dat een huis tientallen meters werd meegesleurd, met een dodelijk slachtoffer tot gevolg.

Veel huizen zijn verwoest en wegen zijn onbegaanbaar door de regen. Honderden vluchten zijn geannuleerd als gevolg van het noodweer.

De gouverneur van Arkansas heeft de noodtoestand uitgeroepen in zijn staat. Het nationale weerstation, de National Weather Service, waarschuwt op Twitter voor meer tornado's in het oosten van het land:

https://nos.nl/artikel/23(...)erenigde-staten.html
94257
478969
I wish I was special
  Moderator maandag 13 januari 2020 @ 12:34:58 #33
8781 crew  Frutsel
pi_191007953
quote:
Teams from the National Weather Service fanned out across Alabama on Sunday to assess storm damage from Saturday’s severe weather.

As of Sunday night five tornadoes have been confirmed: Three in north Alabama and two in central Alabama -- including the deadly Pickens County storm.

The National Weather Service in Birmingham said its survey team confirmed a tornado hit Pickens County near Carrollton and gave it a preliminary rating of EF2 with top winds of 134 mph.

The Pickens County storm is being blamed for three deaths and seven injuries on Settlement Road near Carrollton.

The survey team from Pickens County has sent back a preliminary report that the damage they are seeing is rated at least EF2, at 134 mph. The survey is still ongoing, and more details will be shared when it is available. #alwx

That tornado touched down at 11 a.m. less than 2 miles east of Pickensville and was on the ground for 6.33 miles, according to a preliminary report from the weather service, lifting just less than 7.5 miles southwest of Reform. It was 1,056 yards wide at its peak.

Several homes were damaged along the path, but the tornado likely peaked in intensity along Settlement Road. The weather service said numerous homes were damaged or destroyed on the west side of Settlement Road, while homes on the east side of the road received minimal damage.

According to the weather service, “of the homes destroyed, six were site-built homes. Four manufactured homes were completely destroyed, three of which had anchoring systems that failed. All four manufactured home frames were found considerable distances from the home sites. Three fatalities occurred in two of these manufactured homes on Settlement Road."

All of the injuries occurred on Settlement Road, according to the report. However, other homes not on that road were also damaged. A total of 22 homes were damaged in some way, according to the weather service.
NWSBirmingham twitterde op zondag 12-01-2020 om 16:02:40 The survey team from Pickens County has sent back a preliminary report that the damage they are seeing is rated at least EF2, at 134 mph. The survey is still ongoing, and more details will be shared when it is available. #alwx https://t.co/rPecIRWPne reageer retweet
  maandag 13 januari 2020 @ 21:40:58 #34
83025 INViCTuS
Mountains & Nature
pi_191015945
Never Stop Exploring!
Life begins at the end of your comfort zone!
Follow me on Twitter: https://twitter.com/EdwinKr83 Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/edwinkr83/
  Moderator maandag 10 februari 2020 @ 11:09:44 #35
8781 crew  Frutsel
pi_191438722
Enhanced Risk voor Woensdag

  Moderator maandag 17 februari 2020 @ 11:28:08 #36
8781 crew  Frutsel
pi_191550192
quote:
Experts predict near- to above-average tornado activity this spring

Every day that passes, the calendar draws nearer to spring — peak tornado season for much of the central and eastern United States. And atmospheric scientists have cast their predictions for tornado season 2020, calling for a near to slightly more active season than average. There are also signs that peak periods of storminess could ramp up earlier in the year than during some previous seasons.

Victor Gensini, a professor of atmospheric sciences at Northern Illinois University, said he gently leans toward an above-average tornado season.

Genisini rose to prominence in the field of seasonal forecasts for severe weather in recent years, most recently predicting 2019′s record tornado onslaught nearly four weeks in advance. He specializes in determining how “teleconnections,” or the presence of distant and seemingly tangential atmospheric features, can have impacts on weather closer to home.

An average to above-average season
This year, he’s forecasting bouts of severe weather to begin increasing in frequency and intensity during March and April. May looks to be a busy month as well.

“If the current pattern doesn’t change significantly, we could be up for … periods of intense activity, followed by shutdowns,” he explained. Predicting exactly when those busy spurts will line up is a bit more challenging. “It’s going to coincide with where we are in the sub-seasonal cycle.”

Gensini alludes to smaller-scale, shorter-duration atmospheric disturbances that can bolster or inhibit storminess over the Lower 48. In past years, there have been larger, more obvious ingredients in place. But not so much this year. The atmosphere will be a bit more fickle.

“Last year it was very obvious when the stars would align,” Gensini said. “I think usually by March 1, things become pretty clear. Are there any sort of ‘big players?’ I kind of think of [the atmosphere] as a big orchestra … all the instruments playing together in an ensemble. Some years, you have some instruments playing louder than the others and controlling the narrative and the tune.”

John Allen, a professor of meteorology at Central Michigan University, says the “big player” is usually from El Niņo or La Niņa.

“If you think about how these systems are connected, we’re thinking here about a cascade of scales,” said Allen, discussing the link between large-scale climate systems and the comparatively fleeting nature of tornadoes and severe thunderstorms. “El Niņo interacts on a scale of several thousands of [miles], with interactions going through a middle man.”

That middle man? The jet stream.

The jet stream’s role
In order for supercells — rotating thunderstorms — and tornadoes to form, two ingredients must be present in the atmosphere: instability, and wind shear.

An unstable atmosphere, caused by vertical temperature contrasts, results in lifting motion that can give rise to thunderstorms. To get those storms to spin, you need wind shear — a change in wind speed and direction with height. And when the jet stream is nearby, there’s usually plenty of wind shear present. The jet stream is a swift current of rapidly moving air in the upper atmosphere. Jet stream speeds can occasionally top 150 mph.

As winds near the ground generally don’t approach speeds of that magnitude, there’s a significant change of wind speed with height in the vicinity of the jet stream generating wind shear.

Disturbances embedded within the jet can trigger bouts of severe weather, since jet stream meanderings usually carry cold air aloft. That’s a key factor in thunderstorms. The wind shear imparted by the jet, meanwhile, can encourage storms to rotate.

Connection to El Niņo and La Niņa
Long-range severe weather forecasts don’t start in Tornado Alley. In fact, they don’t even start in the United States. The first place to look? The Pacific Ocean.

Water temperatures in the tropical Pacific Ocean can have enormous bearings on our weather. Water temperatures there fluctuate in response to the El Niņo Southern Oscillation, or ENSO. During El Niņo, water temperatures over the eastern equatorial Pacific run anomalously warm; those same seas are atypically cool during La Niņa.

ENSO, sort of like a pendulum, can swing irregularly between the two states every few years. Knowing a bit about the status of El Niņo or La Niņa generally offers insight as to how the jet stream will behave.

[January was the most unusually warm month ever recorded without an El Niņo]

The warm East Pacific waters that occur with El Niņo help steer moisture from the subtropics across the Baja Peninsula, and eventually over the northern Gulf of Mexico. That can increase low cloud cover and lower temperatures. Meanwhile, the energized polar jet stream is diverted far to the north, where it’s far removed from the key zones for severe weather. Without the polar jet’s added wind shear, hail and tornado chances on the Great Plains decline. Allen and his team showed this in 2015.

La Niņas, on the flip side, bring warmer and drier conditions to the southern United States, and colder weather to the north. That temperature clash can brew severe storms. And a polar jet lurking nearby can help spin up tornadoes — especially in the eastern Plains.

This year, however, ENSO looks to be “close to neutral,” according to Allen.

“ENSO is a dominant mode for most seasonal forecasts,” Allen said. “[This season] you don’t have the main predictor that’s pulling the strings.”

More subtle weather features may dominate this season’s forecast

With no dominant ENSO influence, the focus shifts to other features.
Those more subtle features are a lot more finicky and tougher to predict. Plus, they’re much more difficult to spot from a distance. Gensini, however, already has his eyes on something.

“There’s a lot of convection anchored near the equatorial international date line,” said Gensini, referencing a batch of showers and thunderstorms in the central Pacific. It’s tied to a region of above-average water temperatures. “If that warm pool continues into the spring, I’d have reason to consider an average to an above-average season.”

The warm pool could influence the position and strength of the jet stream enough to shape the Lower 48′s severe weather season.

“The positioning of the jet stream across the U.S. is vital for springtime severe weather frequency,” Gensini said.

Gensini and Allen alike hope these predictions will help emergency managers better plan and prepare for dangerous bouts of severe weather.

“FEMA could benefit in moving around assets or resources,” said Gensini, on the benefits of seasonal tornado forecasts. “Insurance companies could model potential losses. These forecasts are targeted toward educators, administrators, [emergency managers] — the folks that are sort of spreading the message and creating a weather-ready nation.”
  dinsdag 25 februari 2020 @ 21:39:21 #37
307331 aloa
Steeds harder, steeds sneller
pi_191686329
AccuWeather meteorologists are forecasting more than double the average number of tornadoes in the U.S. for one month in particular.

https://www.accuweather.com/en/videos/vok6zgsd
94257
478969
I wish I was special
  Moderator dinsdag 3 maart 2020 @ 11:23:04 #38
8781 crew  Frutsel
pi_191809770


Tornado vlakbij Nashville, Tennessee

Sybbi twitterde op dinsdag 03-03-2020 om 11:20:09 Wow RT @StormchaserUKEU: WOW... Screen grab view of the #tornado in the Nashville area of Tennessee, USA this morning 3rd March! Photo via Stephen Barabas Facebook; #severeweather #NashvilleTN https://t.co/rTb2pb5Spd reageer retweet
  Moderator dinsdag 3 maart 2020 @ 11:24:25 #39
8781 crew  Frutsel
pi_191809786
Ook schade daar...




  Moderator dinsdag 3 maart 2020 @ 11:25:40 #40
8781 crew  Frutsel
pi_191809807
Ook doden gevallen lees ik nu

quote:
Nashville tornado kills at least two, hits CBS affiliate directly

A tornado near downtown Nashville early Tuesday killed two people, police said, and hit the CBS affiliate in the city directly. WTVF-TV described damage around town as extensive.

The city's emergency operations center was activated. An emergency shelter was set up. Residents were urged to avoid downed power lines. Electricity was out in many areas.

Schools were closed for the day but polling stations for the Super Tuesday primary were to stay open.

The twister was one of at least two that touched down in central Tennessee. The one near downtown reportedly stayed on the ground into Hermitage, about 10 miles east of the city.

A video posted online from east Nashville showed what appeared to be a well-defined tornado moving quickly across the city. Lightning repeatedly flashed while much of the city was in the dark. The whirl of the wind could be heard gusting after the tornado moved out of sight.
  Moderator dinsdag 3 maart 2020 @ 11:26:46 #41
8781 crew  Frutsel
pi_191809824



  Moderator dinsdag 3 maart 2020 @ 11:34:38 #42
8781 crew  Frutsel
  Moderator / Redactie Sport dinsdag 3 maart 2020 @ 11:39:07 #43
359864 crew  Nattekat
De roze zeekat
pi_191809976
Zo vroeg al...
100.000 katjes
Maakte de 100.000e post in BIT
Er eens op uit?
  Moderator dinsdag 3 maart 2020 @ 12:02:05 #44
8781 crew  Frutsel
pi_191810320



ChrisPipkinWx twitterde op dinsdag 03-03-2020 om 07:58:35 Here’s a view of Nashville, TN as the tornado sirens blared through the city tonight. Thoughts are with those who are being impacted! 🌩 #tnwx #nashville 📸: Snapchat https://t.co/xqSssJLIbo reageer retweet
Blijft indrukwekkend die tornado sirens...
  Moderator dinsdag 3 maart 2020 @ 12:12:28 #45
8781 crew  Frutsel
pi_191810469
Lijkt op EF2 of Low EF3... als ik dat zo lees

Before and After...



pi_191811734
ABC twitterde op dinsdag 03-03-2020 om 13:45:44 LATEST: At least nine people dead as tornado rips through Nashville city and suburbs. https://t.co/GuUAC1uNBT reageer retweet
  Moderator dinsdag 3 maart 2020 @ 16:47:29 #47
8781 crew  Frutsel
pi_191814398
quote:
0s.gif Op dinsdag 3 maart 2020 13:47 schreef Houtenbeen het volgende:
ABC twitterde op dinsdag 03-03-2020 om 13:45:44 LATEST: At least nine people dead as tornado rips through Nashville city and suburbs. https://t.co/GuUAC1uNBT reageer retweet
Inmiddels gestegen naar 19!
https://fox17.com/news/lo(...)-in-middle-tennessee
  dinsdag 3 maart 2020 @ 17:40:25 #48
83025 INViCTuS
Mountains & Nature
pi_191815134
Boh, das een heftig nachtje geweest
Never Stop Exploring!
Life begins at the end of your comfort zone!
Follow me on Twitter: https://twitter.com/EdwinKr83 Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/edwinkr83/
  dinsdag 3 maart 2020 @ 18:25:48 #49
307331 aloa
Steeds harder, steeds sneller
  dinsdag 3 maart 2020 @ 21:53:58 #50
83025 INViCTuS
Mountains & Nature
pi_191819732
22 doden al
breakingweather twitterde op dinsdag 03-03-2020 om 21:41:03 22 fatalities and many more injuries have been reported across Tennessee after a massive tornado ripped through Nashville, Tennessee and surrounding areas: https://t.co/YJJQ0QJPlP https://t.co/81qE2mv3YP reageer retweet
Never Stop Exploring!
Life begins at the end of your comfort zone!
Follow me on Twitter: https://twitter.com/EdwinKr83 Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/edwinkr83/
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