quote:Tonga prepares for catastrophic winds
‘Catastrophic’ winds are being predicted by Fijian forecasters for the northern parts of the Pacific Island of Tonga.
Cyclone Ian has been labelled a Category 4 Cyclone system. It is packing winds up to 170 kilometres per hour, and gusts have reported to be up to 230 kilometres per hour.
Vava’u, Tonga, where Cyclone Ian is predicted to hit hardest.
People in the regions of Vava’u and Niaofo’ou are boarding windows and clamping down outside furniture. Around 100 tourists are in the areas predicted to be worst hit.
‘On our island and the small outer islands here, there are between 10,000 to 12,000 people. And right now there are now many tourists, maybe 100′, Kjelll Stayv, owner of a small hotel in the northern region of Tonga told local media.
The Tonga Meteorological Service re-issued warnings on Wednesday local time, after cancelling a cyclone alert for the same region on Tuesday. The alert warned of gale force winds, thunderstorms and the risk of sea flooding.
Forecasters say Cyclone Ian will bring ‘a lot of damage to the Kingdom.’
Ik zet hem er ff bijquote:Op dinsdag 14 januari 2014 12:39 schreef Turbomuis het volgende:
Was die niks voor de OP?
Hier te zien op de windmap.quote:
Bron: Washington Postquote:An early start to hurricane season? “Subtropical” storm may be forming…
Tropical storms have occurred during every month in the Atlantic, but January storms are rare. Today, Subtropical Storm Arthur could be forming about 2,000 miles east of the Bahamas.
The official Atlantic hurricane season spans June 1 through November 30, but nature does not always obey our arbitrary boundaries. On average, about 97% of tropical cyclone activity falls within the official hurricane season, while the remaining 3% is spread out among the six off-season months. Looking back to 1851, only two known storms have formed during January: Hurricane #1 in 1938 (formed January 3), and Subtropical Storm #1 in 1978 (formed on January 18).
The low pressure system shown in the satellite image above is mostly located in the middle and upper parts of the atmosphere, with just a hint of a presence at the surface. The surface low is centered near 24N 42W, and as of 7 am EDT this morning, it was analyzed at 1010 mb (29.82″).
Every model I looked at develops this in the short term, and although it may not meet the structural requirements for a tropical cyclone, it could easily meet the requirements for a subtropical cyclone (what is a subtropical cyclone?). Conditions should remain marginally favorable for this system to maintain itself for about the next 4-5 days before it gets absorbed into a mid-latitude front.
If this system does acquire enough organization and surface winds increase to 40 mph, it would earn the first name on the 2014 list: Arthur. It is not and will not be a threat to land.
Lijkt nu toch wat te gaan komen volgens gfs. Stelt nog niet veel voor, maar dat zie je vaker...quote:
Moet jezelf maar ff kijken, want ze doen het niet allemaal. Je kan ook kijken via google earth.quote:Op maandag 3 februari 2014 06:46 schreef the_butler het volgende:
Ik volg de GFS al drie dagen, het lijkt er sterk op dat er inderdaad bezoek gaat komen. ECMWF, hoewel zoals altijd conservatiever, ziet ook een sterk lage druk gebied op vrijwel dezelfde plek. Ik hou het allemaal lekker in de gaten, kijken wat er komen gaat.
Aloa, heb jij een goede bron voor recente satelliet beelden van de Indische oceaan? - JTWC is zo traag met hun updates...
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