[Centraal] Crisis in Syrië en Irak #472

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When can Syria’s rebuilding begin?



DUBAI - The coming year is expected to mark further progress in reducing violence as Syria moves towards an endgame and Syrian President Bashar President Assad will remain at the helm for the foreseeable future despite widespread concerns of his credibility and decisions through Syria’s descent into chaos.

However, with Syria seeing increased stabilisation and improved security, international focus has increasingly been shifting to rebuilding the war-torn country.

Damascus has been staging trade fairs, international flights into Syria are restarting and diplomats are returning with directives to re-establish trade and secure opportunities to assist in Syria’s rebuilding.

Since the conflict in Syria began almost eight years ago, more than half its pre-war population of approximately 23 million have fled their homes — nearly 7 million are displaced internally and another 6 million fled abroad.

The United Nations estimates that more than two-thirds of Syria’s remaining population is dependent on humanitarian assistance for survival. Food production and availability are at record lows. The United Nations’ Food and Agriculture Organisation said the agricultural sector, which accounts for almost one-quarter of Syria’s GDP, needs $16 billion to recover.

Large parts of Syria’s major cities and infrastructure lie in ruins. Gas, electricity and road networks need to be rebuilt. As many as one-in-five houses was damaged during the war and the United Nations estimated that $48 billion was urgently needed for investment in housing stocks alone.

Rebuilding Syria will be a costly and prolonged effort — and it will need considerable international assistance in the form of aid, grants and loans.

In December, Assad suggested that the cost of rebuilding Syria would be at least $400 billion, much higher than the $250 billion estimated by UN Special Envoy for Syria Staffan de Mistura last year.

Some observers may view talk about rebuilding Syria as premature, considering that Israel’s efforts to contain Iranian influence in Syria are becoming more intense militarily and that Turkey’s impending moves against Kurdish militias are likely to be iron-fisted. However, most of those confrontations are likely to take place largely away from Syria’s largest urban centres and commercial hubs.

Syria has survived the worst of the conflict that has engrossed it since 2011 and, while considerable political uncertainty remains, tentative efforts at rebuilding are under way.

China — Syria’s largest trading partner — has been a priority focus for Damascus as it courts investors and contractors for megaprojects. Syria has signed approximately $2 billion worth of reconstruction projects in the past year with Chinese partners. With Europeans staying away in terms of trade and investment, China could gain the most from the lucrative contracts available in Syria.

The Friends of Syria group, which includes the United States, the United Kingdom and Canada, has declared it will withhold $10 billion in pledged assistance until the process of a political transition “away from Assad” becomes evident.

As such, the United States has effectively ruled out any foreseeable role in rebuilding Syria. Washington’s sanctions list features hundreds of Syrian officials, businessmen and companies that US citizens have been barred from doing business with for years.

Now the Caesar Syria Civilian Protection Act, already passed by the US House of Representatives and sent to the US Senate, may soon mean sanctions for foreign companies or individuals doing business with the Syrian government or its front companies.

The possibility of wider US sanctions will complicate emerging Arab efforts to re-engage Syria.

Arab countries have thrown their support behind proposals to Damascus comprising manpower and equipment from Jordan and Egypt and financial backing from the Gulf.

Regional Arab countries say the rebuilding of Syria offers a timely opportunity to reactivate political ties and economic cooperation that are mutually beneficial and could offer strategic gains to all sides, properly managed.

There is hope that a diplomatic reset with Syria backed with new economic partnerships could help Syria’s reintegration into the Arab fold or at least counterbalance the influence Tehran has over Damascus in the short-term.

The fact that Iran’s struggling economy — apparently facing its most difficult conditions in four decades, as Iranian President Hassan Rohani said in his speech on the Iranian revolution’s anniversary — constrains Tehran’s ability to invest significantly in Syria at this stage and creates advantages for Syria’s Arab neighbours interested in forging new partnerships.

Analysts said the United States would be wise to avoid sanctioning Arab contractors doing business in Syria because that would help counterbalance Iranian influence and profits there.

The next year is pivotal for Syria and its neighbours in setting the tone for how cooperation and collaboration may work and how skilfully competing interests can be balanced by international stakeholders as Syria’s rebuilding takes off.

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Despite high price of Syrian reconstruction, business, influence opportunities abound



Syria’s President Bashar al-Assad paid a visit to Iran Feb. 25 — his first such trip since the outbreak of the Syria conflict. In Tehran, Assad was promised help with Syria's recovery that Damascus itself estimates will cost an astronomical $250-400 billion.

However, Damascus' blueprint for reconstruction is important. In mid-2017, Damascus produced an ambitious strategy for rebuilding the country, allegedly pre-approved in April by the Central Committee of the Al-Baath Arab Socialist Party. It focuses on economic and social recovery in the face of Western sanctions, giving the green light to companies and businesses from friendly countries to conduct commercial and investment projects, branding reconstruction as a prize for participants with long-term profits and promoting a “destroyer pays” formula, particularly to the Gulf states as sponsors of the main opposition groups.

The Syrian authorities used the annual Damascus International Fair, a respected forum in prewar times that took place in 2017 for the first time in five years, as an opportunity to demonstrate a "quick restart" for Syria. The Syrian leadership also took a series of steps to improve legal and institutional frameworks so as to attract foreign investors and press the local private sector to take a more active reconstruction role. A 2016 law permits partnerships between the government and private companies for the rebuilding of Syria's industries and infrastructure, except in the oil and gas sector, under a council established and chaired by the prime minister.​

Local consultants for the government have outlined several priorities for 2018-2022: construction of electricity plants, solar panels, electrical towers and wind turbines; transportation of energy; investment in railways and improvement of airports; construction of dry freight logistics centers and ports; and production of electrical micro-components and basalt fiber. There has been a growing demand for practical adaptation of public-private partnerships under direct governmental guarantees that are particularly required in the electricity sector.

In June 2017, Assad announced reforms including the creation of an inter-ministerial “assistance center” that together with “electronic feedback” and “human resources” centers would support direct dialogue with regular citizens. This month, Prime Minister Imad Khamis announced he will meet with investors on a weekly basis.

Damascus views economic aid from friendly countries such as Russia, Iran, China and India as a strong driving force of reconstruction.

In 2013, Iran opened a line of credit for Syria worth $3.5 billion and extended it by $1 billion in 2015. During Khamis' visit to Tehran in January 2017, the Iranians obtained the right to operate the phosphate mines in Sharqiya, southwest of Palmyra. In September 2018, Iranian companies agreed to open plants in Syria to produce construction materials and in October, an accord was signed to build a 540-megawatt energy plant in Latakia. On Jan. 29, 2019, the Iran-Syria High Bilateral Committee held its 14th summit in Damascus, co-chaired by Khamis and Iran’s First Vice President Eshaq Jahangiri.

The Russian efforts to raise economic ties to the same level as military coordination and political dialogue have been managed under the auspices of a joint commission on trade, economic, scientific and technical cooperation that met in December 2018 in Damascus. Its priorities included the oil and gas industries, water resources, health care and transportation, meaning the modernization of seaports, railroads and the national air navigation system.

After sitting on the sidelines of the Syrian conflict for some time, the Chinese have been seeking a role since 2016, believing that neither Moscow nor Tehran can benefit from small-scale deals because of their own economic problems. In July 2017, the Syrian Embassy and the China-Arab Exchange Association created an ad-hoc group on Syrian reconstruction in Beijing. The Chinese promised to invest $2 billion in an industrial park in Syria.

India has promised $20 billion for the recovery process (5-8% of the total estimated needs). Despite Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s visit to Israel in July 2017, Damascus confirmed it maintains a “pragmatic relationship” with New Delhi, reassuring India that all prewar joint projects between India and Syria in steel and electricity as well as in the oil and gas sectors will be revived.

Other recent developments give reason for cautious optimism on Syria's reconstruction: Lebanon is expanding the seaport of Tripoli to make it a transit hub to Syria. At the end of 2018, inter-Arab discussions spread about readmitting Syria to the Arab League, aiming to find a counterbalance to the growing influence of Iran and Turkey and coinciding with a visit to Damascus by the President of Sudan. In December 2018, the UAE Embassy was reopened in Damascus, followed by the creation of a Syrian export center in Dubai.

There is more than meets the eye when it comes to Western states. While many are still reluctant to allocate funds for Syria's reconstruction, some are of two minds whether their own influence in Syria should be yielded to the Syria-friendly states. Ericsson, Siemens, CMA-CGM and other companies are asking European governments for protection of their business interests in Syria. The Czechs are in the vanguard, having maintained their embassy in Damascus throughout the conflict. In 2017, the Aradoz brewery was opened with Czech technical aid in a Syrian town of Safita. Brussels wants Syria to stop bleeding refugees. During the conflict, the EU has mobilized $12 billion for food, shelter and medical treatment in Syria and neighboring countries, including $2.7 billion for 2019-20.

Nevertheless, serious challenges persist.

1. The Syrian leadership is still unable to restore the full economic integrity of the country, with vast territories out of its control. At the same time, urban terrorism continues to plague civilians and the business community.

2. The gradual territorial partition of Syria is likely to continue under the influence of outside players with geopolitical ambitions.

3. Ambiguity remains over the fate of Idlib, the north and the northeast. Damascus may need to strike a deal with the Kurds to grant access to the eastern and northeastern regions that are rich in mineral resources and fertile agricultural land. Without them, the authorities will be left with few resources to supply the reconstruction-costly regions, including big cities like Damascus, Aleppo and Homs.

4. Local business elites oppose the formalization of relations with the government, entailing paying taxes and customs duties and obligations such as sponsorship of social projects. After years of war, the authorities have to reward loyalist field commanders, communities and entrepreneurs that are happy with their informal status.

4. There are differences among the Syrian elites in their attitudes toward friendly countries such as Iran, Russia and China. Despite sympathies based on Alawite-Shiite ties and the existence of Shiite shrines in Syria, controversy remains between the secular nature of power and society in Syria and theocratic one in Iran. Tehran's aid is frequently met with mistrust, assessed not as charity but rather as a bid for dominance in rebuilding Syria.

5. The UN does not recognize Syrian reconstruction as a nationwide political process. Thus, the 2018 Humanitarian Response Plan addressed only saving lives, alleviating suffering and enhancing protection, based on the Whole of Syria approach.

6. There is a wide diversity of outside assessments of reconstruction prospects, coupled with a lack of confidence in the success of investments. A majority of Western and Arab analysts are skeptical about rapid economic recovery under Assad’s rule. Many politicians in Europe and especially in the United States reject any joint efforts with the Syrian government. The US approach involves several planning guidelines: bypass official authorities, concentrate on cross-border aid and focus on the areas outside the government's direct control; view the reconstruction as a bottom-up process aimed at enhancing the autonomy of local actors; concentrate on places where destruction had been less severe than in the urban centers of Western Syria; go slowly to minimize the impact of poorly designed projects and to avoid flooding communities with resources they cannot absorb.

7. The Syrian opposition and the loyalists are frequently hostile to each other, and that reality poses difficulties for establishing new business relationships.

In sum, the process of rebuilding Syria will depend upon future political-military developments, international attitudes and the domestic reconciliation process.

Read more: https://www.al-monitor.co(...)n.html#ixzz5gpO6Cph9

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Op donderdag 28 februari 2019 22:16 schreef Slayage het volgende:
Geweldig dit


Overheidssteun aan rebellen belemmert vervolging van Syriëgangers

Advocaten van Syriëgangers gebruiken Nederlands Syriëbeleid om hun cliënten vrij te krijgen. Hoogleraar en rechter Henny Sackers denkt dat ze een kans maken.

Het probleem zit hem volgens Sackers niet bij erkende terreurgroepen als IS, maar bij jihadistische groepen die niet op internationale terrorismelijsten staan, zoals Ahrar al-Sham. Daarvan kan niet zomaar worden bewezen dat die terroristisch zijn, en dus kunnen Syriëgangers, die voor dit soort groepen zeggen te hebben gevochten, mogelijk vrijuit gaan. Al helemaal als die groepen ook nog eens het stempel ‘gematigd’ van het ministerie van buitenlandse zaken gekregen, zoals gebeurde in 2015. Sackers: “Als er straks een eerste vrijspraak volgt, zal vervolgens geen enkele officier van justitie meer een zaak willen aanspannen.”

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Op donderdag 28 februari 2019 22:49 schreef Peunage het volgende:

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Lekker voor Nederland.

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Op vrijdag 1 maart 2019 15:34 schreef Slayage het volgende:
Wat de neuk

twitter:

Charles_Lister twitterde op vrijdag 01-03-2019 om 15:12:56 Get this.A #Syria refugee seeking asylum in #Germany now works for the far-right (*anti-refugee*) AfD party.He spends his spare time spreading pro-#Assad bile online... and he used to work for pro-#Hezbollah media in #Lebanon.Meet: Kevork Almassian:https://t.co/BO1G2pQNFa https://t.co/4Q9EBw2dI6 reageer retweet

twitter:

p_vanostaeyen twitterde op zaterdag 02-03-2019 om 17:04:20 Hay’at Tahrīr as-Shām executed 10 ISIS members after an attack last night on a restaurant in Idlib https://t.co/EglB60CNqo reageer retweet

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Op zaterdag 2 maart 2019 18:16 schreef Slayage het volgende:
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ruimt wel op

[ afbeelding ]

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Op woensdag 13 maart 2019 01:43 schreef Jellereppe het volgende:
Het is stil geworden. Assad heeft geen plannen om het land te herenigen? Of heeft die een jaar pauze ingelast om op adem te komen.