Deel 1 dag:
quote:
... Benelux, Germany, the Czech Republic, Poland, Slovenia, Slovakia, Hungary and the Alpine regions ...
Similar cyclogeneses in the past featured well structured split fronts due to potential instability build-up with interacting high-level dry air, low/mid-tropospheric boundaries and deep lift. Right now the dry mid-level air is rather ill defined in forecast cross sections. BL moisture will reach accetable values along/ahead of the cold front, but postfrontal air mass suffers from a well mixed and dry BL air mass. Hence, numerous foci for somewhat augmented thunderstorm probabilties exist over an extensive area, but right now no region can be detected, where substantial thunderstorm probabilities exist. Hence despite aggressive gradient flow, only a broad level 1 area was issued. Please keep in mind that ESTOFEX does not issue level areas for non-convective straight-line wind events. Please refer to your local weather agency for more information about that threat.
Deel 2:
quote:
... Benelux and Germany during the late afternoon and overnight hours ...
Despite a rather dry postfrontal air mass, rapidly steepening mid-level lapse rate due to the advection of very cold mid-/upper level air assists in neutral forecast profiles. Some models indicate weak mid-level disturbances, which cross the area and result in an increase of showers/isolated thunderstorms. Even enhanced friction along the coasts of the Netherlands my assist in spotty CI. Any deeper updraft may bring strong winds down to the surface and with isolated thunderstorm activity forecast, we added this activity to our level area. Severe wind gusts will be the primary threat, but once again an isolated tornado event can't be ruled out due to very favorable LL shear.