Crisis Oekraïne - Rusland #153 De Yalta waarschuwing

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Op maandag 15 september 2014 21:09 schreef deelnemer het volgende:

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shaunwalker7 twitterde op maandag 15-09-2014 om 15:17:57 I started working as Moscow Correspondent for the Guardian exactly a year ago. It's been a fairly busy year. reageer retweet

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shaunwalker7 twitterde op maandag 15-09-2014 om 15:24:24 One of 1st stories a year back was Glazyev threatening UKR faced "potential collapse". Thought he was nuts at time. http://t.co/kCdQHIOcW2 reageer retweet

Ukraine's EU trade deal will be catastrophic, says Russia

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The Kremlin aide added that the political and social cost of EU integration could also be high, and allowed for the possibility of separatist movements springing up in the Russian-speaking east and south of Ukraine. He suggested that if Ukraine signed the agreement, Russia would consider the bilateral treaty that delineates the countries' borders to be void.

"We don't want to use any kind of blackmail. This is a question for the Ukrainian people," said Glazyev. "But legally, signing this agreement about association with EU, the Ukrainian government violates the treaty on strategic partnership and friendship with Russia." When this happened, he said, Russia could no longer guarantee Ukraine's status as a state and could possibly intervene if pro-Russian regions of the country appealed directly to Moscow.

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shaunwalker7 twitterde op maandag 15-09-2014 om 15:25:26 "Russia could no longer guarantee Ukraine's status as a state and could intervene if pro-Russian regions of the country appealed to Moscow." reageer retweet

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shaunwalker7 twitterde op maandag 15-09-2014 om 15:25:49 It's all there. I even remember thinking carefully about how to phrase the piece as it all sounded so bonkers at the time. reageer retweet

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Ukraine and EU ridicule Russian threats
23.09.13 @ 09:29

KIEV - EU personalities and Ukrainian politicians have made light of Russia's latest threat against Ukraine if it signs an EU pact.

Speaking at a conference in Yalta, Ukraine, at the weekend, Sergei Glazyev, an aide to Russian President Vladimir Putin, said Russia will ruin Ukraine if it takes the EU path.

Amid jeers from some delegates in the audience, he said Russia will impose new trade tariffs on Ukrainian goods, worth up to ¤35 billion, leading it to default on its sovereign debt.

"We don't want to use any kind of blackmail … But legally, signing this agreement about association with the EU, the Ukrainian government violates the treaty on strategic partnership and friendship with Russia," he noted.

"Who will pay for Ukraine's default, which will become inevitable? … Would Europe take responsibility for that?" he added.

Russia in recent months already banned Ukraine's top chocolate brand, Roshen, on phytosanitary grounds.

It also imposed special customs checks on Ukrainian trucks in August causing a temporary standstill in trade.

The moves come ahead of an EU summit with former Soviet countries in Vilnius in November at which the EU and Ukraine aim to sign a political association and free trade deal.

For her part, Lithuanian President Dalia Grybauskaite told the Yalta meeting: "Ukraine is too big, too strong and too important to allow others to decide its fate. It is the decision of Ukraine to be with the European Union or not."

Polish foreign minister Radek Sikorski described Russia's tactics as a "19th-century mode of operating towards neighbours."

He added in a quip on the Roshen ban that if Ukraine signs the EU pact: "I undertake to eat more Ukrainian chocolate."

Ukrainian trade minister, Petro Poroshenko, who owns the Roshen firm, noted that Russia's threats are counterproductive.

"For the first time in our history more than 50 percent of people support European integration, and less than 30 percent of people support closer ties with Russia … Thank you very much for that Mr Glazyev," he said.

Viktor Pinchuk, one of Ukraine's richest businessmen, told Reuters that Russia's tactics are "totally stupid."

Moscow aside, the EU delegates also warned that unless Ukraine frees jailed former PM Yulia Tymoshenko - who has spent two years in custody after a show trial - the EU-Ukraine pact could fall by the wayside.

"The request from the European Union on Tymoshenko's case is still on the table and, without a solution, I do not see a possibility for the signature," Grybauskaite said.

Aleksander Kwasniewski, a former Polish president who has, as part of an EU parliament mission, over the past year tried to negotiate Tymoshenko's release, added: "She is ill. She needs surgery. She needs therapy and rehabilitation."

But Yanukovych himself refused to budge.

He said: "We are trying, and are seeking even today, to find a way of approaching this very difficult question relating to Tymoshenko … At the moment, we have not yet said either 'Yes' or 'No' [to her release]."

He hinted that she might go free if she admits to being guilty of abuse of office when she was PM and asks for a pardon.

"Only the court can give an answer or [there can be] a voluntary decision by Tymoshenko," the Ukrainian leader noted.

Speaking to EUobsever in Kiev after the Yalta event, EU diplomats said Ukraine has fulfilled almost all other conditions for signing the EU pact in November.

The main EU proposal on Tymoshenko is to send her for medical treatment in Germany at the time of the Vilnius meeting.

But one EU contact noted that unless Ukraine also drops the legal cases against her: "She will never accept it. It would mean she could never go back to Ukraine because she would risk spending years in prison. It would be the end of her political career."

Another EU source said even if the deal is signed in Vilnius, there is a danger Ukraine will not implement it because its oligarchs are making a fortune out of the status quo, with Ukraine half-way between the EU and Russia.

Tymoshenko herself in an emotional appeal sent to Yalta urged the EU to go ahead with the pact.

She also warned, however: "Authoritarianism, disrespect for the rule of law and human rights, and poor economic governance will not disappear by default only because the agreement is signed."

If it is signed, it could also take a long time for each of the 28 EU countries to ratify the treaty.

The European Commission has prepared a legal proposal to give parts of the EU pact "provisional application" right away.

But some member states, such as the UK, are against the move because it would create a precedent in which the commission implements pacts before EU national governments have had their say.

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Ukraine’s economy contracted about 1.3% in the second quarter, and the country’s debt rose to $134.4 bln, according to a statement from Ukraine’s central bank. But despite the daunting economic climate today, many economists and business experts agree that if Ukraine finds a way to survive through the transition, the economic benefits will be far more substantial than they would be with Russia’s Custom Union.

The question is, how will Ukraine survive if the Kremlin shuts its doors (despite Ukraine’s attempts to continue the dialogue) and the EU promises take time to turn into economic benefits? Perhaps with the help of friends. If the international attendance at this year’s Yalta conference is any indication, Ukraine has many of them.

The summit by the Black Sea, organized by Ukrainian billionaire and steel industry tycoon Victor Pinchuk, serves as a playground for European and American politicians, thinkers and economists to discuss the world’s most pressing issues, including the Eastern European region. This year’s conference featured American power couple Bill and Hillary Clinton, former British prime minister Tony Blair, and a nice cast of American and European politicos, economists, thought-leaders and bankers — like Mario Monti, Dominique Strauss-Kahn and Patrick Cox among others.

Bill Clinton said that he “doesn’t approve of all the pressure that Ukraine has been subject to” by its neighbor, and suggested that as long as there is room for freedom and enterprise, Ukraine has all the chances for prosperity. He pointed out that the US supported South Korea because it seized the promise of freedom and progress. His remarks were followed by Tony Blair, the former prime-minister of Great Britain, who said: “We should stick with you and help you on that journey”

Ukraine and Russia have to find some way to cooperate and make decisions together that would work for both countries, but it’s also understood that Ukraine needs to have a plan B in case Russia continues its abusive tactics and shuts the door on Ukrainian businesses. Finding new markets and attracting new investments could be the way. If Western friends step in with more than just talk of democracy and transparency, Ukraine might achieve a level of strength that would be helpful in dialogue with a behemoth such as Russia.

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The elegant white palace combines Neo-Renaissance style with the light subtlety of Moorish architecture. Loaded with symbolism, it is the place Viktor Pinchuk, a Ukrainian tycoon with a taste for intellectual debate, chose to set up his conference ten years ago. Hardly any speaker did not reflect on Yalta’s history. But never before have these reflections been as fitting as this year. The future of Ukraine, a country of 48m people, and of Europe was being decided in real time. The Yalta conference, now in its tenth year, was a display of fierce diplomacy, formidable brain power and the precarious position of the European Union.

The guestbook read like a Who's Who of Europe. Mario Monti and Gerhard Schröder, a former prime minister of Italy and a former chancellor of Germany, along with Dominique Strauss-Kahn, former managing director of the IMF, were lamenting the lack of visionary and inspiring European leaders who could re-ignite the passion for a united Europe. Egemen Bagis, Turkey’s chief negotiator with the EU, passionately lectured them on the benefits of fiscal discipline.

Lawrence Summers, a former American treasury secretary, and Robert Zoellick, an ex-head of the World Bank, were reflecting on the imbalances of the world economy. David Petraeus, a retired general and former head of the CIA, and Bill Richardson, a former energy secretary, talked about the shale-gas revolution that is changing the balance of power between Russia and the West. Mr Pinchuk himself was having a ball, moderating a session between Tony Blair and Bill Clinton.

Yet the real focus of the conference was Ukraine itself. It is close to signing an association and free-trade agreements with the EU at a summit in Vilnius in November. The EU is keener than ever on the agreement. Russia, on the other hand, considers this a red line. Crossing it could spell a trade war. Although this is the closest Ukraine has ever been to Europe, the deal hinges on one issue: the release of Yulia Tymoshenko, a former prime minister of Ukraine, from jail, which European leaders have put down as a precondition for signing the agreement.

Viktor Yanukovich, Ukraine’s president, seems to have an almost irrational fear of Ms Tymoshenko. His apparent reluctance to let her out of jail is a subject of enormous frustration. Mr Yanukovich, who spoke in Yalta alongside Dalia Grybauskaite, the president of Lithuania, which holds European presidency, was challenged both by Ukraine’s opposition and by Ms Grybauskaite. One of the most arresting moments was a dramatic exchange between Yuri Lutsenko, Ms Tymoshenko’s ally and himself a former prisoner, and Mr Yanukovich. “You had enough wisdom to stop an experiment with me. I am appealing to you, Viktor Fedorovovich: a man who is not afraid of Putin should not be afraid of Yulia Tymoshenko. As twice convicted, I am asking you to take a pen and sign her pardon,” Mr Lutsenko, a former interior minister told Mr Yanukovich. A dramatic pause hung in the air, but Mr Yanukovich did not surprise the audience with an impromptu display of mercy.

Meanwhile ¦tefan Füle, the EU enlargement commissioner, Carl Bildt, the Swedish foreign minister, and Radek Sikorski, the Polish foreign minister, were working hard behind the scenes and in public to convey a message: EU countries would like to sign the association agreement, but they will not be able to do so with Ms Tymoshenko in jail. This message seemed to be lost in translation. “Yanukovich thinks they will sign anyway and are simply paying a lip service to Ms Tymoshenko,” one person close to Mr Yanukovich said. Vladimir Putin, Russia’s president, seems to think the same, which explains the almost hysterical behaviour of the Kremlin towards Ukraine, which mainly consists of threats and insults.

Russia is fast losing Ukraine through its own arrogance and bullying. The contrast between the way Ukraine is treated by Russia and the West was only too obvious in Yalta. Whereas America was represented by a dozen high-level officials, including the former secretary of state, Hillary Clinton, who gave a speech, Russia did not even bother to send its ambassador. Its only representative was Sergei Glaziev, a nationalist-minded economic advisor to Mr Putin, whose job was to warn Ukraine against a “suicidal” step. He was also said to be the author of a leaked plan that proposed “putting pressure from all sides, creating a sense of inevitability of joining the [customs] union as way of survival for the ruling elite”.

If this was the plan, it achieved the opposite result. Mr Glaziev’s contemptuous speech in Yalta (he accused Ukrainian officials of not even reading the association agreement they were signing) prompted an ironic comment from Petro Poroshenko, the Ukrainian trade minister and chocolate maker, whose sweet wares were hit by Russian sanctions. “For the first time in our history more than 50% of people support European integration and less than 30% of people support close ties with Russia. Thank you very much for that, Mr Glazyev,” he said. If Ukraine signs the EU association agreement in Vilnius, it may consider sending a thank-you note to Mr Putin.

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shaunwalker7 twitterde op zaterdag 13-09-2014 om 12:17:32 Over lunch today at the Yalta conference we will have Tony Blair on resolving conflict. Later: Dr Harold Shipman on patient aftercare. reageer retweet

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BradCabana twitterde op maandag 15-09-2014 om 23:38:48 #Ukraine offers "special status" (which means nothing) for 3 years to #Novorossiya ... am I missing something? Did the NAF surrender? reageer retweet

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ArmedResearch twitterde op dinsdag 16-09-2014 om 00:17:34 #Georgian volunteer battalions headed to/already in #Ukraine according to media. https://t.co/M1bjZyI1i9 reageer retweet

За мир в Україні грузини в добровольчих батальйонах Вікна новини 15 09 2014

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Op dinsdag 16 september 2014 08:31 schreef homme7 het volgende:

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ja en die Roebel stort steeds verder ineen en de oligarchen van Poetin sjouwen hun miljarden naar Zwitserland anders krijgen ze een oorlogsbelasting