Crisis in Oekra�ne #100 De bevrijding van Oost-Oekraine

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Op dinsdag 1 juli 2014 00:05 schreef Happel het volgende:
Nu gaat de fullscale burgeroorlog dus echt beginnen.

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A major breakthrough took place in the Ukrainian civil war, which is changing the geopolitical situation around the Southeast.
The Analytical Department of ANNA-NEWS is exploring the motives of the Russian leadership and the policy of nonintervention in the events in Ukraine.
The Donbass struggled and became stronger

First, not only were the Novorossiya voluntary forces not crushed by the Ukrainian Army and detachments of retributive expeditions, but actually strengthened, even while incurring losses. Specifically:
1. Donbass voluntary forces (militia) acquired a sufficient quantity of MANPADS to close the Donbass airspace.
2. The Kiev authorities' aircraft is flying over the Donbass blindly, because the militia has destroyed or taken control of radar stations in controlled territory.
3. Kiev aviation group (Army Aviation and Air Force) have suffered heavy losses and been forced to use anything that can fly, including helicopters with United Nations markings.
4. The militia have acquired heavy weapons, particularly T-64 tanks, Grad multiple launch rocket systems, and sufficient amounts of cannon artillery not only for deterrence, but also for a gradual transition to the offensive.
5. Heavy shelling and the destruction of infrastructure has dramatically increased the influx of volunteers and accelerated the formation of new militias, including from miners who left idled mines in Akhmetov;
6. The unity of command is gaining strength parts militia leadership. At the same time, parts of Kiev and the Khaganate showed signs of confusion and disarray.
7. The Border is still under the control of the Donbass voluntary forces.

Kiev is exhausted
Secondly, Kiev’s retributory machine has begun to fizzle out. They have deployed almost all their reserves, which has frustrated those in regions loyal to Kiev:
1. Kiev units have suffered huge losses that the Kiev junta is forced to hide from the public.
2. Facts have emerged about choked transportation lanes and conscripts being stripped from their parents to be sent to the front.
3. Kiev authorities are not able to plan operations strategically, or even at the tactical level.
4. In Kiev controlled В/Ч they are repairing virtually everything possible. This indicates the depletion of stocks, workable machinery, and equipment;
5. Manipulation of equipment procurements have been reported, for example, body armor has been delivered with an insufficient protection class;
6. At the beginning of June, meetings were held in Kiev that meant to require soldiers be provided with the necessary equipment before being sent to the eastern front.
7. Dormant resistance cells were activated in Kiev controlled territory. It is a well known fact that campaign materials for Novorossiya are being distributed in Kherson, Kharkiv and Odessa.
8. The Eastern border is no longer controlled by Ukraine. The morale of the border areas controlled by Kiev have fallen to the point that they have abandoned border checkpoints, retreating deep into Ukraine, and at worst (for Kiev) have crossed the Russian border and are hiding there. It should be noted that the Russian Federation does not pursue Ukrainian border guards, who have escaped from Ukraine.

Inadequacy of Ukrainian elites
The incompetence of the Kiev authorities has been revealed, as has its absolute inability to negotiate and its inadequacy as managers:
1. The standard of living fell sharply in Ukraine: in lieu of �Europe� — there has been a tremendous growth in utility and commodity price payments.
2. Accelerating economic collapse: plant closings, reduced economic activity, rising unemployment.
3. The disruption of gas negotiations indicates that Kiev has no money. �No� in the sense of, �none at all�.
4. A state of emergency has been caused in the energy sector, not only with the ceasing of pumping gas into storage, but also upcoming coal supply disruptions;
5. With budget increases derailed and credit frozen for Kiev, authorities have been forced to ask creditors to restructure their debt.

Gobbling up each other: escalation of an inter-species struggle
Battles between the Euromaidan factions of the Beni Kolomoyskiy Khaganate and the Tymoshenko faction have become more intense:
1. Ukrainian elites have selected to engage in simultaneous war with all on several fronts and are regularly tripping over each other.
2. Poroshenko, the President of Euromaidan entering into an open war with the head of the Khaganate, Igor Kolomoiskiy, as evidenced by Kolomoiskiy’s open disobedience to Poroshenko’s decision on a temporary truce in the Donbass and leaked information about Poroshenko’s intentions to remove Kolomoyskiy and his protege from power.
3. In Odessa, Gennady Trukhanov won the mayoral election, sworn to Kolomoiskiy, the Poroshenko protege, Edward Hurwitz, failed miserably.
4. Territorial defense battalions funded by Kolomoiskiy act in isolation from parts of Kiev, disobeying and conducting raids (the Azov Battalion of A. Biletskiy under the name of O. Lyashko and the shattered Idar Militia Battalion);
5. Poroshenko was forced to fight in Kiev, with Tymoshenko’s people, forcing them out of power and pushing the idea ofearly parliamentary elections.

Europe is given pause for thought
Four postponements for transferring Kiev to prepaid gas has led to a radical shift in EU policy towards Russia and energy supplies:
1. Europe, actually, acknowledged that Moscow’s proposed gas price for Kiev was fair.
2. Commissioner Oettinger initiated the transfer to prepayment and extended negotiations, which demonstrates the EU elites' is aware of the depth of the energy problem.
3. Gazprom refused to use the Ukrainian underground gas storage facilities, preferring to pump gas directly to the EU underground gas storage facility.
4. Nord Stream temporarily shut down for scheduled maintenance from June 24 to 28, and only one branch of the pipeline will be active from June 28 to July 4.
5. The EU will reconcile with the required conditions within a month or two, after which it will accept almost any of Gazprom’s requirements for the South Stream and gas supply.
6. EU elites do not believe shale gas supplies from the United States are truly feasible (and rightly so).

Thus, the attitudes of European politicians are reformed, and its carriers are forced to look at the Ukrainian events not from an ideological standpoint, but from the perspective of the economy and a healthy pragmatism that brings the positions of the EU and the Russian Federation closer together. Under these circumstances, the United States finds themselves acting as a �third wheel�.

Trends in the development of the Ukrainian Civil War
A number of trends and future developments in Ukraine can be predicted, based on the aforesaid, provided that Russian troops are not deployed in the Donbass and Ukraine. The deployment of troops will nullify this matrix scuttle all progress in the EU’s turn to Russia. Europeans will push for sanctions and the conclusion of the Transatlantic Free Trade Area Agreement with the United States, which will lead to a sharp increase in the US’s geopolitical position and the rapid weakening of Russia’s standing.

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Op dinsdag 1 juli 2014 11:22 schreef Happel het volgende:
Ah, daar komen de Rusland fappers weer.

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Laat in de avond op 30 juni hield een telefoongesprek tussen minister van Buitenlandse Zaken van de Russische Federatie Sergej Lavrov en minister van Buitenlandse Zaken Frank-Walter Steinmeier, Frankrijk en Oekra�ne L.Fabiusom P.A.Klimkinym de ontwikkeling gehouden op dezelfde dag eerder vierweg-telefoon conferentie met de hoofden van Rusland, Duitsland, Frankrijk en Oekra�ne.

De ministers bespraken de situatie in Oekra�ne en de maatregelen die moeten worden genomen om de wapenstilstand, het scheppen van voorwaarden voor de oplossing van de humanitaire problemen te verlengen en om de onderhandelingen over de regeling van interne Oekra�ense crisis beginnen.
Werd overeengekomen vier-verklaring, die het initiatief van de Russische grenswachten aan vertegenwoordigers van Oekra�ne en de OVSE-waarnemers te hosten op drie checkpoints op het Russische grondgebied te nemen aan het toezicht op de situatie aan de grens verwelkomd; sprak zijn steun uit voor de organisatie voor dit doel directe contacten tussen de Russische en Oekra�ense grens diensten en aanneming bij het ​​besluit van de OVSE Permanente Raad over de inzet van waarnemers. Benadrukte de noodzaak van een spoedige hervatting van de activiteiten van de Contactgroep overeenstemming te bereiken over een voor beide partijen duurzame wapenstilstand te bereiken. Opgeroepen tot de onmiddellijke vrijlating van alle gijzelaars.

Op het laatste moment de Oekra�ense kant publicatie van een consensus document heeft geweigerd, zeggen dat het klaar is om te gaan voor het eerst na de onvoorwaardelijke bilaterale wapenstilstand was. Een dergelijke stap Kiev is zeer betreurenswaardig, vooral omdat vier-verklaring juist de partijen opgeroepen om de actie om snel te kunnen bereiken van de betreffende overeenkomst in de Contactgroep. Daarnaast is de Oekra�ense kant in de vorm van een ultimatum eist de bijeenroeping van de Contactgroep van de Russisch grondgebied en niet in Donetsk, die de vorige vergadering gehost.

Rekening houdend met de ontvangen over de deelnemers informatie die de Oekra�ense kant op 30 juni andere contacten in verschillende formaten indruk dat positie wisseling van Kiev, waaronder bedrijf op de avond van 1 juli de wapenstilstand niet te verlengen, was niet zonder invloed van buitenaf, ondanks de positie van de vooraanstaande leden van de EU.

Nogmaals, de oproep om te stoppen met Oekra�ne als ruilmiddel in de geopolitieke spelletjes, af te zien van het opleggen van strafrechtelijke lijn op de gewelddadige onderdrukking van de protesten. Alle moeten worden geleid in de eerste plaats de taak om een onmiddellijk einde aan het bloedvergieten, duurzaam staakt-het-vuren en het begin van het object en open onderhandelingen over de toekomst van de Oekra�ense staat in het belang van alle burgers en regio's zetten.
Overeengekomen op initiatief van Duitsland en Frankrijk vier ministers verklaring ter ondersteuning van de Russische voorstellen over gezamenlijke grenscontroles is ontworpen om een ​​belangrijke bijdrage aan de verwezenlijking van deze doelstellingen te maken - in de veronderstelling, natuurlijk, sparen de wapenstilstand. Annuleer deze modus autoriteiten in Kiev en scherpe intensivering van de vijandelijkheden ondermijnd een belangrijke diplomatieke actie ontwikkeld door de gezamenlijke instructies van de leiders van Duitsland, Rusland, Oekra�ne en Frankrijk.

Wij zijn ervan overtuigd dat de inspanningen om de situatie terug te keren naar de intercom kanaal moet worden voortgezet, waaronder de dringende bijeenroeping van de Contactgroep. Zal al het mogelijke doen om dit te vergemakkelijken. Als het gezond verstand zal zegevieren en zal worden hervat een wapenstilstand, dan bereid om te werken met partners om de uitvoering van de in de overeengekomen afspraken leiden, maar niet in werking als gevolg van de positie van Kiev verklaring opgenomen.

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Op dinsdag 1 juli 2014 14:12 schreef deelnemer het volgende:
Als je de rebellen in Oost-Oekraine als een proxy van Rusland ziet, of als representanten van de gedeelte van de bevolking van Donbass, dan is duidelijk dat de rebellen een deling van het land afdwingen. Dat is voor een soeverein land onacceptabel. Rusland zo zoiets in eigen land nooit accepteren. Het zijn de rebellen die hun zin doordrijven, zonder enig mandaat (niemand heeft hen gekozen als vertegenwoordigers). Dat is een vorm oorlogsvoering en Oekraine verdedigd het eigen land tegen deze aanval.

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He recalled that since June 16 Ukraine was shifted to prepayment rules and would be getting precisely the amount of gas it has paid for. “Today they are paying nothing and get nothing,” he said.

“What they are getting are so-called reverse supplies. We do know what this is all about. It is artificial reverse traffic. There is no such thing in reality,” Putin said. “How is it possible to use the same pipe to pump gas both ways? It does not take to be big specialist in the gas sphere to understand that this is unrealistic,” Putin said.

“They have devised some shady schemes with some of their partners. They are getting Russian gas and paying to some of their partners in Europe, who under-consume these amounts,” Putin said. ”We see everything,” he said. “We have taken no action so far for the sole purpose of not exacerbating the situation,” Putin said.

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A journalist Denis Kulaga came under mortar fire near Izvarino checkpoint in Ukraine’s eastern Luhansk region has been wounded but feels better, Russian TV channel representative told ITAR-TASS.

He also noted that the journalist’s appeal will be posted on the Internet soon.

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Russische diplomaten: Kiev onder druk van 'buitenaf' om door te gaan met oorlogshandelingen