Stratfor: Nederland is rijp voor protest

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In the Netherlands, Conditions Are Ripe for Protest

January 8, 2014 | 1100 GMT

The closure of the Aldel aluminium smelter near Delfzijl, a city in the Dutch province of Groningen, could cost the local community more than 600 jobs.

The European crisis has made conditions in the Netherlands ripe for protest. On Jan. 5, some 1,000 people took part in a peaceful demonstration against the closure of an aluminum smelter in the Dutch region of Groningen. Although unremarkable in itself, the demonstration could be an early symptom of a much larger issue: Discontent is growing as unemployment remains high and as the region's residents feel neglected by the central government.

The Netherlands is a core eurozone and EU country that was hit by the European financial crisis as it spread from the southern periphery to the wealthier countries of Northern Europe. The Netherlands has a relatively strong right-wing Euroskeptical party, the Freedom Party, and as a consequence of the lingering crisis, it is fertile ground for new protest movements to emerge and for existing movements to intensify and expand.
Analysis

Though relatively small, the recent protest in Groningen is indicative of a growing trend of protest movements throughout Europe. Movements in Italy and France, such as the Pitchfork and Red Cap campaigns, have garnered significant attention and reflect a common theme: A regional issue, separate from political parties and trade unions, has catalyzed the growing frustration of different segments of society, generating a campaign of protest that spreads throughout the country.

Social media has enabled disparate groups to organize. In the Netherlands, a group on Facebook called "Groningers in Opstand" (Rebellious Groningers) was created on Dec. 30 and currently has around 23,000 followers. The website appears to be the main channel for organizing current and planned protests, the next of which is scheduled for Jan. 8 and should remain peaceful, according to the group.
Beyond the Smelter

The closure of the aluminum smelter is just one of the reasons Groningers are unhappy. Although the loss of jobs from the bankruptcy triggered the creation of the Groningers in Opstand group, there is broader discontent among the region's residents. The negative effects of natural gas exploration, economic stagnation and the feeling of neglect by the central government are other issues that could easily sustain the protests.

Unemployment is also a contentious issue in the Netherlands. Although the Dutch unemployment rate in November 2013 was at 6.9 percent, down from 7 percent during the summer and well below the EU average of around 11 percent, it is still the highest rate since the beginning of 1996. The employment gap has narrowed over the past two decades, but the northern provinces of the Netherlands, including Groningen, generally have a higher unemployment rate than the rest of the country. The north relies more heavily on industry (energy and chemical) and agriculture -- both sectors of diminishing importance -- than the south, which is more oriented toward services and logistics. Moreover, the north also faces a more rapidly declining and aging population than the south. The unemployment rate in the north is around one percentage point higher than the national average.



The natural gas sector is particularly important in Groningen but is not without controversy. The Groningen natural gas field is one of the largest in the world; in 2012, it produced 49 billion cubic meters of natural gas. A government supervisory body recently noted that natural gas exploration in Groningen should be slowed down because of a rise in exploration-related earthquakes, damaging houses and triggering public discontent. However, revenue from the field is an important source of income for the Dutch government, hence there is little room to reduce exploration in the region without further weakening the state's financial situation, which is already difficult as a result of the ongoing economic crisis.

The Netherlands is likely to remain one of the most troubled European economies in 2014. In November 2013, the EU Commission noted that it expects the Netherlands' gross domestic product to grow by only 0.2 percent in 2014 while unemployment rises to 8 percent. High unemployment and economic stagnation are weakening the political elite. The Dutch government coalition, composed of the liberal People's Party for Freedom and Democracy and the Labor Party, jointly won 79 of 150 seats in the last parliamentary elections in 2012. Polls from December 2013 give the coalition between 37 and 46 seats. The right-wing Freedom Party and the centrist D66 party are benefiting from the growing discontent with the government.

This year, the current Dutch government will likely pursue several measures to address the issues of growing discontent and Euroskepticism. The government has long been one of the strongest supporters of austerity in troubled countries that were demanding aid. However, implementing cuts domestically has proved to be more troubling in light of weak growth, and the government will likely reduce its efforts to meet EU deficit targets to mitigate domestic public anger.
An Evolution in Strategy

In a move similar to the United Kingdom's strategy, the Dutch government will adopt some elements of the Euroskeptics' political agenda by highlighting its intent to constrain Brussels' influence on national matters. The government is expected to call for stricter control of the national social security system's use by foreigners and -- in more general debates about the European Union -- note that the Netherlands is skeptical of giving up more sovereignty. Even more than Germany, the Netherlands boasts an export-oriented economy (exports of goods and services account for 88 percent of the Dutch GDP compared to around 50 percent of the German GDP) and depends on the European Union's common market. Because of this, the Netherlands is generally interested in European integration and strong control over countries it has supported financially. However, as a small nation the Netherlands also wants to ensure it does not lose influence with the larger European powers such as Germany and France and is hesitant to give up sovereignty entirely.

Calls for small-scale protests are unlikely to resonate in the Dutch parliament or government, but it will be important to observe whether the movement in Groningen diversifies or spreads in the coming weeks. It will be difficult for protest movements to develop the formal structures necessary to sustain protests and gain political influence. Movements that start peacefully may also risk losing general support and legitimacy if more extremist and violent groups join the protests.

Protests against job losses due to company closures are common throughout Europe, so the recent unrest in Groningen may remain insignificant. And it may not even be the Groningers in Opstand movement that gains wider traction throughout the country. But local protests can be symptomatic of a more general frustration among the population. In light of continued economic weakness and high unemployment, the Netherlands is fertile ground for protests to grow in 2014. In the short term, the Freedom Party will likely try to fuel protests, hoping to attract voters for the European Parliament elections in May that will be an important gauge of support for the right-wing and Euroskeptical parties throughout Europe.