Hurricane Season 2014: Orkanen & Cyclonen

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El Nino may tame Atlantic Hurricanes
There are indications that an El Niņo is on the way for the middle and latter parts of 2014. The phenomenon may impact the weather in portions of the United States, starting this summer.

Fluctuations in the sea surface temperature over the tropical Pacific Ocean have been observed and recorded for approximately the past 60 years. These fluctuations are known as the El Niņo Southern Oscillation or ENSO. When the waters are cooler than average for a several-month period, the event is called La Niņa. Opposingly, when the waters are warmer than average over several months, the event is called El Niņo.

According to AccuWeather Long Range Forecaster Mark Paquette, "We are confident that an El Niņo is in the early stages of developing and may reach moderate strength moving forward into mid- to late summer of 2014."

While El Niņo will not have an impact on this spring and summer's severe weather, it may come on early enough and strong enough to have impact on the upcoming hurricane season in the Atlantic and Eastern Pacific.

Disruptive winds, known as wind shear, often develop off the Atlantic coast of the United States and sweep over a large part of the basin during El Niņo.
"It is possible that a budding El Niņo and developing wind shear may truncate the number of hurricanes originating from near the west coast of Africa during the middle and latter part of the season," Paquette said.

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El Nino to show in time for Atlantic season?
El Nino to show in time for Atlantic hurricane season? It's just one factor for forecasters

Well, the first omen of the coming hurricane season is a good one: El Nino looks like he's ready to stick his head up.But don't put your shutters away just yet.

"While all (computer) models predict warming in the tropical Pacific, there is considerable uncertainty as to whether El Nino will develop during summer or fall," the federal Climate Prediction Center cautions.

El Nino is a warming trend in the Pacific that creates shear winds in this hemisphere - the sort of winds that strip apart hurricanes.

El Ninos are generally good things. A recent federal study of more than a half-century of storms found a correlation between the number of hurricanes and El Nino or cooler water La Nina years. Both devastating Hurricane Hugo in 1989 and the near-miss Lowcountry swipe by Hurricane Floyd in 1999 occurred during strong La Nina years.

But forecasters are beginning to suspect just where and how warm the waters get play bigger roles in Atlantic conditions than the simple emergence of an El Nino. And the phenomenon is just one in a roulette wheel of climate factors that determine the storm season. For example, shear winds persisted in the Atlantic last summer, despite the absence of an El Nino, leading to a quiet season that baffled forecasters so completely they continued to call for a late season surge in storms even as few developed.

In fact, the long range computer modelling that now suggests a late summer El Nino is itself suspect. Long range predictions are what weather pros call "low confidence" forecast.

"The models have been totally wrong with El Nino predictions before," said Mark Malsick, S.C. Climate Office severe weather liaison. "The general (carved in Jello) rule of thumb is that the number of North Atlantic hurricanes is reduced during an El Nino; however, the hurricane threat to the South Carolina is not eliminated."

It is, in other words, way too early to say.