Accuweatherquote:First Frost on the Way for Some Northern States
The chilliest air since last spring will sweep into part of the northern U.S. and neighboring Canada, bringing the first frost of the season to some locations.
A large area of high pressure will build southward from northern Canada and will roll into the northern Plains, Midwest and Northeast U.S. this week.
The much cooler air will first pour into the northern Plains and Canadian Prairies today into Tuesday and will spread into the Northeastern U.S. during the second half of the week.
The forecast magnitude of the chilly shot and the overall high pressure area is a little early for the time of year but has happened before.
The average date of the first frost or freeze is just that, an average.
According to Agricultural Meteorologist Dale Mohler, the greatest risk of damaging frost is over the Upper Midwest.
"The core of the chilly air and necessary clear skies and light winds for frost lies from the eastern Dakotas to much of Minnesota northern Iowa, western Wisconsin, southern Manitoba and part of Northwestern Ontario Wednesday night and Thursday night," Mohler said.
"Farther east, there is still some risk of frost, but the number of hours necessary to damage tender plants and vegetables will be much less and temperatures will be very marginal," Mohler added.
A light frost (associated with marginal temperatures) can leave some plants undamaged. A freeze (prolonged below-freezing temperatures) causes the fluid inside the plant to freeze, destroying the cells. Different plants, because of their cell structure, can resist frost to a certain point.
Mohler was referring to areas east of Chicago to the mid-Atlantic and New England.
The warm waters of the Great Lakes modify temperatures this early in the season. So when an air mass moves in from southern Canada and across the northern Plains, it passes over the Great Lakes, picking up a bit of warmth.
"There will also be cloud cover issues and perhaps some wind working against frost farther east," Mohler added.
The risk of frost is generally for rural locations and open areas in the suburbs. In the larger cities, including those of the Upper Midwest, the heat given off by pavement and buildings should be enough to ward off the risk of frost.
Forecast low temperatures are made for a height about six feet above the ground. In clear, calm situations, the temperature nearest the ground, not including pavement or concrete, can be 10 degrees lower or more. This is why we mention frost when actual temperatures are forecast to be above freezing.
It is possible by next weekend that enough cool air is still around, winds diminish and skies clear to allow frost in the normally cold spots of the mid-Atlantic and New England.
The southward push of cool air across the Great Plains, combined with a storm brewing in the Southwest, could initiate areas of rain to some needy locations farther south, including part of Texas, Oklahoma, New Mexico, Kansas and Colorado.
Cooler Weather On The Way for Sizzling Southquote:...WIDESPREAD SUB FREEZING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TONIGHT AND EARLY
.SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE RED RIVER VALLEY THIS
EVENING INTO MINNESOTA BY THURSDAY MORNING. THIS HIGH WILL BRING A
DRY AIRMASS...CLEAR SKY AND LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT INTO EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD IN LOW TEMPERATURES FROM
25 TO 30.
Jan Visserquote:In Noord-Amerika heeft zich een overgang naar aanmerkelijk kouder weer voltrokken. Deze doet zich inmiddels ook in een groot deel van de VS gelden. Eindelijk is het op zinderende 'southern Plains' (Texas, Oklahoma) gaan afkoelen (zie kaartje).
Oliver Oeckerath stelde ondertussen een ‘Canadees overzicht’ samen. Ik citeer: “Grootvadertje Vorst is dezer dagen al op bezoek in de Canadese provincie Saskatchewan. Onder invloed van een koudbloedig hogedrukgebied werd het dinsdag in Spiritwood niet warmer dan 8,8° (normaal: 16,8°). De nacht naar woensdag leverde daar met -7,0° de eerste stevige vorst van de herfst en meteen een evenaring van het op 30 september 1996 gevestigde maandrecord op. In het stadje Rosetown, waar voor september een gemiddelde minimumtemperatuur van 3,9° te boek staat, duikelde het kwik zelfs naar -7,7° (record: -8,7°).
Regina, de provinciale hoofdstad (180.000 inwoners), noteerde -5,2°. De bel met koude lucht schuift inmiddels oostwaarts. Gistermiddag bleef ket kwik in Geraldton, Ontario, steken op een magere 6,3° tegen 15,3° normaal. Vanochtend vroeg zijn in het gebied ten noorden van het Bovenmeer (Lake Superior) ook de eerste natte sneeuwbuien van het seizoen mogelijk.
quote:La Nina returns
Last month, La Niņa conditions returned and are expected to gradually strengthen and continue into the Northern Hemisphere through the 2011/2012 winter, according to a National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Climate Prediction Center webinar held Thursday.
During the October through December 2011 period, there is evidence that La Niņa favors an increased chance of above-average temperatures across the mid-section of the country, according to the weather forecasters.
The nation’s Corn Belt will feel La Niņa’s effects through the end of the year. “Moving into this fall, the Corn Belt region weather conditions are typically warm and dry during La Niņa,” said Jon Gottshalk, NOAA Climate Prediction Center. “With La Nina we have a 4 in 5 chance of below normal precipitation for November through March.” Gottshalk added that as the winter months proceed there is a tendency for the northern portion of the Corn Belt to return to colder temperatures.
The effects of La Niņa also added to the record drought conditions in the Southern Plains. Much of Texas, Oklahoma and parts of New Mexico and Kansas remain mired in extreme to exceptional drought. The agriculture damage in Texas alone is estimated at $5.2 billion. The climatologists say that weather indicators suggest that drought conditions in the area may remain in place.
According to NOAA, U.S. weather disasters in 2011 exceeding $1 billion in damage set a new record at 10.
August precipitation varied considerably across the Midwest as crop stress became much more widespread with the dry conditions of the month, according to NOAA. Due to the weather and following disappointing field surveys in many locations, crop yield estimates were lowered well below the 5-year averages. Yields are also expected to vary considerably from field to field and even within fields.
Drought affected areas in the Midwest expanded from less than 1% on July 26 to more than 18% on Aug. 30. Severe drought area went from 0% to nearly 5% of the Midwest in the same time period.
For details on the weather and climate events of the Midwest, see the weekly summaries in the
Jan Visserquote:na vijf maanden zijn afgelopen zaterdag (10 september) de laatste resten van de opgestapelde sneeuwbergen in de Canadese stad Edmonton gesmolten (bron: Alexandra Pope).
Jan Visserquote:Oliver Oeckerath bericht over de afkoeling in het oosten van de Verenigde Staten: “Door toedoen van de restanten van de voormalige tyfoon ROKE, die op 21-22 september jongstleden nog Japan had geteisterd, is het in het oosten van de Verenigde Staten flink afgekoeld. Tijdens het afgelopen weekeinde werd op de toppen van de Appalachen voor het eerst deze herfst een sneeuwdek gevormd. In de staat West Virginia, Pocahontas County, rapporteerde de 1478 meter hoge Snowshoe Mountain (38° noorderbreedte) zondagmiddag een sneeuwhoogte van 10 cm. Maandagochtend lokale tijd wordt er een tapijt van 23 cm verwacht.
Sneeuw van betekenis ook in het oosten van Canada: op de grens van de provincies Québec en Labrador viel in het stadje Schefferville zaterdag een pak van 20 cm.”
Twitterbericht van Joe Bastardiquote:Thousands of Northern Colorado residents from Berthoud to Wellington are still without power this afternon while heavy, wet snow continues to fall.
Trees, burdened by the heavy snow, fell on power lines throughout Northern Colorado, causing widespread power outages. The snow also knocked out transformers and other power units.
Xcel Energy, which serves a large portion of Northern Colorado, said Wednesday afternoon that they hoped to restore power to nearly everyone by midnight. More than 100,000 of Xcel's consumers were hit by power outages from the storm. the company said it was adding personnel focused on restoring power, and that crews would work through the night to resolve the problems.
Poudre Valley REA, which supplies power to rural areas, said at 1:30 this afternoon on its website at PVREA.com that more than 4,800 customers were without power, down from more than 8,000 customers earlier this morning. Power was restored to the Bellvue area, but the majority of the affected areas were concentrated west of Interstate 25 from south of Berthoud to Wellington.
PVREA said that three line crews have been dispatched from its neighboring cooperative, Mountain View Electric, to help with the outage. PVREA also said it has hired several contractors to help with its tree mitigation efforts.
Some residents in the Terry Lake neighborhood north of Fort Collins experienced a power outage Tuesday evening only to see power restored very early this morning. However, the power went out again about noon today, a caller told the Coloradoan.
In Loveland, police cautioned residents there to take driving precautions because of the power outages. In a posting on the city of Loveland's website, Loveland.com, a note from the police said: "Due to the snowstorm, power is out in central and south Loveland, including traffic signals at several intersections. Please treat all intersections where the signals are dark as four-way stops."
Loveland's Thompson School District closed schools today, in part, because the power was off in several schools.
PVREA said all available crews and equipment had been out since 9 p.m. Tuesday night to repair damages caused by downed trees and heavy snow. Earlier in the morning, more than 8,000 were without power. Crews also were staged in the foothills from Lyons to Red Feather Lakes.
Xcel Energy, meantime, reported this morning that 13,745 customers near Fort Collins were without power. Xcel said on its website that 14 crews were working on restoring power in the area. The company said it was adding additional crews in Fort Collins and Greeley.
Xcel and Poudre Valley REA provide electric service to areas outside the general Fort Collins city limits, while the city of Fort Collins Utilities, which has not reported any outages, provides power within the city.
Both Xcel Energy and Poudre Valley REA asked customers for their patience on their websites at XcelEnergy.com and PVREA. com.
A view of the Uptown area of Denver around midday Wednesday.quote:Snow from noreaster may cause as much tree damage as Irene Dc to southern New England!
quote:Up to a foot of heavy wet, back-breaking snow will plaster areas north and west of I-95 Saturday, causing massive power outages, downed trees and travel nightmares.
The storm will hit hard and fast, traveling from southwest to northeast over the mid-Atlantic and New England in less than 24 hours.
The heaviest snow from the storm will stretch from along the Virginia/West Virginia border through a large swath of central and eastern Pennsylvania to southeastern New York state, northwestern New Jersey, northern Connecticut, central and western Massachusetts to southern New Hampshire and southwestern Maine.
Cities that are likely to receive the heaviest snowfall include: Hartford, Conn., Frederick, Md., Worcester, Mass., Nashua, N.H., Netcong, N.J., Newburgh, N.Y., Allentown, Pa., Winchester, Va. and Martinsburg, W.Va.
In these areas and others over the interior Northeast, the snow will come down hard enough to accumulate on the roads making for slippery driving. The worst conditions will be in the hilly areas and the mountains, where slightly lower temperatures are in store.
Thousands of trees could come down, and over a million people could be without power. Some rural roads could be blocked for days by fallen trees. Driving or walking through wooded areas during and immediately following the storm could be dangerous.
Thunderstorms could accompany the snow, adding to the drama.
While the heaviest accumulation will miss the I-95 cities from Washington, D.C., and Baltimore to Philadelphia, New York, Providence and Boston, some wet snow will fall on the heart of the downtown areas and can cover rooftops, trees and grassy areas. Streets in the downtown areas of these cities will be mainly wet.
Because of the intensity of the rain and snow, with increasing winds, expect flight delays and cancellations in the Northeast and ripple-effect delays elsewhere throughout the nation.
The storm will turn into a "Halloween Weekend Screamer" in New England. Not only will some communities be battling problems from heavy snow, but also dramatically increasing winds that will also down trees and wires.
Powerful northeasterly winds will cause coastal flooding along east- and northeast-facing shorelines of New England. For part of the region, this could be an Irene with snow.
The storm will bring a period of heavy rain and the potential of urban flooding along the coast of the mid-Atlantic and the immediate southern and eastern coasts of New England.
It's Not a Halloween Prank
Snowfall during October is not uncommon in the Northeast in general, but when it does occur it typically only falls on a very narrow swath, high elevations or a relatively small patch of land.
According to Expert Senior Meteorologist Henry Margusity, "During this storm, the extent of places that may receive 6 to 12 inches is unprecedented."
Unlike many storms which tend to underachieve, this one will overachieve and is likely to be a record-breaker.
It will catch many people off guard because of its intensity and fast-hitting nature.
quote:Oliver Oeckerath bericht over de sneeuwsituatie in de VS: "In het noordoosten van de VS staat een tiental staten tussen West Virginia en Maine vanmiddag en in de nacht naar zondag een beruchte "nor`easter" te wachten: een lagedrukgebied dat langs de oostkust richting Nova Scotia koerst. Terwijl langs de lijn Washington-Boston voornamelijk regen of natte sneeuw wordt verwacht, transformeert de neerslag in het binnenland met een noordoostelijke aanvoer in droge sneeuw. Amerikaanse weerdeskundigen voorspellen dat op een voor eind oktober weergaloze schaal een pak van 15 tot 30 cm zal gaan vallen.
In de Appalachen is zelfs tot meer dan een halve meter sneeuw mogelijk met intensiteiten van lokaal 10 cm per uur. De Canadese weerdienst rekent vervolgens ook in het zuidwesten van de provincie New Brunswick op een laag van 15 ā 20 cm. Er wordt veel overlast verwacht, omdat talloze bomen en hoogspanningsleidingen onder het gewicht van de papperige sneeuw zullen bezwijken".
quote:...midden in Pennsylvania , zelfde breedte als NY , Madrid