WKN Weer, Klimaat en Natuurrampen
Lees alles over het onstuimige weer op onze planeet, volg orkanen en tornado's, zie hoe vulkanen uitbarsten en hoe Moeder Aarde beeft bij een aardbeving. Alles over de verwoestende kracht van onze planeet en tal van andere natuurverschijnselen.
20% inmiddelsquote:Op donderdag 11 augustus 2011 10:24 schreef aloa het volgende:
93l (nummer 4 voor de kust van Afrika) lijkt de meeste kans te hebben om uit te groeien tot een zware orkaan.
Volgens mij gaan ze niet samenvoegen.quote:Op donderdag 11 augustus 2011 20:39 schreef Co_OL het volgende:
Gaan 92l en 93l samenvoegen? 92l gaat met 11 mph en 93l met 13 mph
Ze zijn nu allebei 40%. GFS laat 92l richting Bermuda en New Foundland trekken.
quote:Tropical Concerns for Leewards, Bermuda, Canada
Two tropical systems forecast to soon form in the Atlantic could pass too close for comfort to the Leeward Islands, Bermuda and Atlantic Canada over the next couple of weeks.
As we have been saying here at AccuWeather.com, the Atlantic is locked and loaded with the potential for up to three named systems by August 25.
According to Tropical Weather and Hurricane Expert Dan Kottlowski, "At least two of these systems may become strong enough and whipped around by high pressure in the central Atlantic in such a way as to pass close to or over Bermuda."
Next up could be the Canadian provinces somewhere from New Brunswick to Newfoundland, essentially the Gulf of St. Lawrence region.
The track, let alone formation of the two systems, is in no way set in stone. However, at this point we wanted to make folks aware of two potential troublemakers.
A shift in track is possible with one or both systems. That shift would bring them closer to, or farther away from, the Antilles, the Bahamas and the East Coast of the U.S.
As of late this week, the two systems were mere tropical waves cruising westward, relatively fresh arrivals from the African continent.
These systems, like many others before and after, will have to battle areas of wind shear and dry air, as revealed by dust originating from the Sahara Desert, along the way.
Interestingly, at least two long-range computer models are seeing the two systems at this early stage and developing them, bringing them around the Atlantic high pressure area, and driving them northward through the western Atlantic.
We are not saying the models have a 100 percent right idea on the storms and their supposed tracks, but we are relaying concerns we have in this matter.
On a personal note, I am not a fan of long-range computer model forecasts in the tropics. However, my 28 years of professional forecasting experience tell me that when two commonly used models are essentially predicting the same outcome with minor variances, the situation is worth watching.
If either of the two or both tropical waves slowly organize and become legitimate named tropical systems, they could become strong enough and large enough to have impact on populated areas.
Size, intensity and exact track of the systems will matter as far as local impacts. Even a weak system could bring a period of disruptive, heavy, gusty squalls to island areas such as the Leewards and Virgin Islands.
Both systems will pass nearby the Leeward Islands first. The first system is on track to approach and pass the Leewards spanning Sunday into Monday (Aug. 14 and 15). The second system is due to pass days later; Thursday into Friday of next week (Aug. 18 and 19).
Bermuda may have to deal with the first system spanning Tuesday into Wednesday. The second system would pass near Bermuda the weekend of Aug. 20 and 21.
Part of Atlantic Canada sticks out to the east hundreds of miles relative to the U.S. coast. As a result, at this early stage, people and interests from New Brunswick to Nova Scotia will need to monitor storm development in the tropical Atlantic. The first system would make its run at the region Thursday into Friday of next week (Aug. 18 and 19). The second system would be of concern for the region the week of Aug. 22.
Additionally, shipping and cruising interests will want to watch the situation closely, as the outcome currently most certain is for at least periods of rough seas in the western Atlantic.
Even if both storms were to stay east of the U.S., one or more episodes of rough surf and dangerous rip currents could occur.
Interestingly, it would not take much for an approaching dip in the jet stream to capture one or both systems in such a way as to pull them closer to the East Coast of the U.S.
Kweenie of dit al eens gevraagd is, maar zijn de kwaliteitsposters hier (en elders in DE) vooral amateurs of ook echt professionele meteorologen?
And what rough beast, its hour come round at last,
Slouches towards Bethlehem to be born?
Slouches towards Bethlehem to be born?
Ik denk dat de meeste amateurs zijn.quote:
Kweenie of dit al eens gevraagd is, maar zijn de kwaliteitsposters hier (en elders in DE) vooral amateurs of ook echt professionele meteorologen?
Wat/wie zijn kwaliteitsposters?quote:
Kweenie of dit al eens gevraagd is, maar zijn de kwaliteitsposters hier (en elders in DE) vooral amateurs of ook echt professionele meteorologen?
Iedereen met solide kennis en mooie infographicsquote:
And what rough beast, its hour come round at last,
Slouches towards Bethlehem to be born?
Slouches towards Bethlehem to be born?
Maar dat kun je op internet wel vinden, als je er interesse in hebt.quote:
[..]
Iedereen met solide kennis en mooie infographics
IDD net bij NASA vandaan wat een ding zeg:)quote:
[..]
Maar dat kun je op internet wel vinden, als je er interesse in hebt.
On the Hunt for the Birth of a Hurricane: How the AIRS spaceborne instrument is helping in the campaign to understand some of Earth's most powerful storms
Het ziet er allemaal weer wat minder uit nu. GFS laat de gebieden maar traag ontwikkelen. Volgens GFS gaat 93l op de Bovenwindse eilanden af. ECMWF en NOGAPS laten helemaal niets zien.
Afwachten wat de volgende run gaat doen.
Afwachten wat de volgende run gaat doen.
Mmmm allemaal op elkaar, doet me denken aan vorig jaar. Alles stelde niets meer voor 
Wel weer een mooi gezicht met 4 op n rij
Wel weer een mooi gezicht met 4 op n rij
Weer of geen weer, altijd actueel www.onweer-online.nl
GFS brengt 93l zelfs nog in de golf (25 Augustus. 
) Beetje ver weg. De nieuwe run loopt nu binnen.
It's a busy day in the tropical Atlantic, with the National Hurricane Center tracking four areas of interest (Invests.) None of these systems is a danger to any land areas over the next three days. The disturbance of most concern is the one farthest from land, a tropical wave that emerged from the coast of Africa two days ago. This wave, (Invest 93L), is located about 500 miles southwest of the Cape Verde Islands, and is moving westward at 15 - 20 mph. Recent visible satellite loops show that 93L has lost some of its heavy thunderstorms since yesterday, and the system is poorly organized, though there is a good deal of spin to the system. There is dry air to its north that is interfering with development. The SHIPS model and University of Wisconsin CIMSS wind shear analysis are showing high wind shear in excess 20 knots affecting 93L, which has undoubtedly contributed to the storm's loss of organization. Sea surface temperatures are 27.5°C, which is one degree above the 26.5°C threshold usually needed to support a tropical storm.
Forecast for 93L
High wind shear above 20 knots is predicted along 93L's path through Saturday afternoon, followed by a drop to the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, for the succeeding four days. This should allow the storm to organize over the weekend. The latest 00Z and 06Z model runs of the four best models for predicting tropical storm formation (GFS, ECMWF, NOGAPS, and UKMET), have only one model, the GFS, that is indicating significant development of 93L. This model brings 93L near the northern Lesser Antilles Islands by Wednesday. NHC gave 93L a 40% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Sunday morning in their 8am outlook. Given 93L's recent struggles, I'd put these odds at 30%.
92L
An African wave midway between the northern Lesser Antilles Islands and the coast of Africa, near 18°N 45°W, is moving west-northwest at 20 mph. This system, (Invest 92L), is being given a 40% chance of development by NHC. Recent visible satellite loops show a modest amount of heavy thunderstorm activity, but no signs of a surface circulation. A Windsat pass from 8:04 am EDT this morning also showed no surface circulation, and noted top winds of around 35 mph. Water vapor satellite loops show that a large area of dry air surrounds 92L, and this dry air is causing problems for the storm. The SHIPS model and University of Wisconsin CIMSS wind shear analysis are showing moderate wind shear of 10 - 20 knots affecting 92L. Sea surface temperatures are 27 - 27.5°C, which is a degree above the 26.5°C threshold usually needed to support a tropical storm.
Forecast for 92L
Moderate wind shear of 10 - 20 knots is predicted along 92L's path over the coming five days, which should allow the storm to organize if it can handle the dry air surrounding it. The latest 00Z and 06Z model runs of the four best models for predicting tropical storm formation (GFS, ECMWF, NOGAPS, and UKMET) show weak development or no development of 92L, and NHC gave 92L a 40% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Sunday morning in their 8am outlook. A steady west-northwest motion for 92L is predicted by all of the models, which should make the storm miss the Lesser Antilles by a comfortable margin. However, Bermuda may be at risk from 92L next week.
94L
A broad low pressure system about 700 miles northeast of the northern Lesser Antilles Islands has developed a small amount of heavy thunderstorm activity, and may be a threat to become a tropical depression early next week. This system, (Invest 94L), is currently headed west-southwest at 10 mph, but is expected to turn northwest later today. Recent visible satellite loops show some spin to the cloud pattern at middle levels of the atmosphere, but no signs of a surface circulation. This system is also battling dry air, which is keeping the its heavy thunderstorms relatively meager. The SHIPS model is showing moderate wind shear of 10 - 20 knots affecting 94L. Sea surface temperatures are 28°C.
Forecast for 94L
Moderate wind shear of 10 - 20 knots is predicted along 94L's path over the coming five days, which should allow slow development, if it can handle the dry air surrounding it. None of our reliable models for predicting tropical storm formation (GFS, ECMWF, NOGAPS, and UKMET) show no development of 94L, and NHC gave 94L just a 20% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Sunday morning in their 8am outlook. Bermuda is the only land area that needs to be concerned with 94L.
95L
The final invest out there is an area of disturbed weather along on old frontal boundary several hundred miles off the coast of North Carolina. This sytem, Invest 95L, is headed northeastwards out to sea, and is not a threat to any land areas.
Dr. Jeff Masters
) Beetje ver weg. De nieuwe run loopt nu binnen.
It's a busy day in the tropical Atlantic, with the National Hurricane Center tracking four areas of interest (Invests.) None of these systems is a danger to any land areas over the next three days. The disturbance of most concern is the one farthest from land, a tropical wave that emerged from the coast of Africa two days ago. This wave, (Invest 93L), is located about 500 miles southwest of the Cape Verde Islands, and is moving westward at 15 - 20 mph. Recent visible satellite loops show that 93L has lost some of its heavy thunderstorms since yesterday, and the system is poorly organized, though there is a good deal of spin to the system. There is dry air to its north that is interfering with development. The SHIPS model and University of Wisconsin CIMSS wind shear analysis are showing high wind shear in excess 20 knots affecting 93L, which has undoubtedly contributed to the storm's loss of organization. Sea surface temperatures are 27.5°C, which is one degree above the 26.5°C threshold usually needed to support a tropical storm.
Forecast for 93L
High wind shear above 20 knots is predicted along 93L's path through Saturday afternoon, followed by a drop to the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, for the succeeding four days. This should allow the storm to organize over the weekend. The latest 00Z and 06Z model runs of the four best models for predicting tropical storm formation (GFS, ECMWF, NOGAPS, and UKMET), have only one model, the GFS, that is indicating significant development of 93L. This model brings 93L near the northern Lesser Antilles Islands by Wednesday. NHC gave 93L a 40% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Sunday morning in their 8am outlook. Given 93L's recent struggles, I'd put these odds at 30%.
92L
An African wave midway between the northern Lesser Antilles Islands and the coast of Africa, near 18°N 45°W, is moving west-northwest at 20 mph. This system, (Invest 92L), is being given a 40% chance of development by NHC. Recent visible satellite loops show a modest amount of heavy thunderstorm activity, but no signs of a surface circulation. A Windsat pass from 8:04 am EDT this morning also showed no surface circulation, and noted top winds of around 35 mph. Water vapor satellite loops show that a large area of dry air surrounds 92L, and this dry air is causing problems for the storm. The SHIPS model and University of Wisconsin CIMSS wind shear analysis are showing moderate wind shear of 10 - 20 knots affecting 92L. Sea surface temperatures are 27 - 27.5°C, which is a degree above the 26.5°C threshold usually needed to support a tropical storm.
Forecast for 92L
Moderate wind shear of 10 - 20 knots is predicted along 92L's path over the coming five days, which should allow the storm to organize if it can handle the dry air surrounding it. The latest 00Z and 06Z model runs of the four best models for predicting tropical storm formation (GFS, ECMWF, NOGAPS, and UKMET) show weak development or no development of 92L, and NHC gave 92L a 40% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Sunday morning in their 8am outlook. A steady west-northwest motion for 92L is predicted by all of the models, which should make the storm miss the Lesser Antilles by a comfortable margin. However, Bermuda may be at risk from 92L next week.
94L
A broad low pressure system about 700 miles northeast of the northern Lesser Antilles Islands has developed a small amount of heavy thunderstorm activity, and may be a threat to become a tropical depression early next week. This system, (Invest 94L), is currently headed west-southwest at 10 mph, but is expected to turn northwest later today. Recent visible satellite loops show some spin to the cloud pattern at middle levels of the atmosphere, but no signs of a surface circulation. This system is also battling dry air, which is keeping the its heavy thunderstorms relatively meager. The SHIPS model is showing moderate wind shear of 10 - 20 knots affecting 94L. Sea surface temperatures are 28°C.
Forecast for 94L
Moderate wind shear of 10 - 20 knots is predicted along 94L's path over the coming five days, which should allow slow development, if it can handle the dry air surrounding it. None of our reliable models for predicting tropical storm formation (GFS, ECMWF, NOGAPS, and UKMET) show no development of 94L, and NHC gave 94L just a 20% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Sunday morning in their 8am outlook. Bermuda is the only land area that needs to be concerned with 94L.
95L
The final invest out there is an area of disturbed weather along on old frontal boundary several hundred miles off the coast of North Carolina. This sytem, Invest 95L, is headed northeastwards out to sea, and is not a threat to any land areas.
Dr. Jeff Masters
Koers van Franklin lijkt gunstig voor ons tot nu toe 
Weer of geen weer, altijd actueel www.onweer-online.nl
Ik hoop het..quote:
Koers van Franklin lijkt gunstig voor ons tot nu toe
93l is van de kaarten verdwenen. GFS (andere modellen ook niet) laat het ook niet meer terugkomen in deze run (0.00uur)
Tropische Depressie 7 trekt richting Bermuda..
Tropische Depressie 7 trekt richting Bermuda..
Nu al bij TD 7 en dan Augustus nog worden afgemaakt en komen September en Oktober nog.
Aardig actief dus alleen nog steeds geen orkaan.
Aardig actief dus alleen nog steeds geen orkaan.
Het moet eigenlijk nog allemaal goed op gang komen. Half augustus t/m half oktober (Met de piek in september) is de drukste periode.
Op 
2011 Atlantic Stormsquote:Op zondag 14 augustus 2011 20:16 schreef Frutsel het volgende:
[..]
We moeten nog ff, misschien dat Samson in September of Oktober nog ff langswipt
Arlene Bret Cindy Don Emily Franklin
Gert Harvey Irene Jose Katia Lee
Maria Nate Ophelia Philippe Rina Sean
Tammy Vince Whitney
quote:
ik heb al een mail gestuurd dat ze Sean ff moeten vervangen
Op de hele lange termijn (29 augustus) is er weer een enorm gebied te zien in de golf. Nog ver weg. Dat kan dan een gebied zijn wat achter 93l ontstaat.
[ Bericht 21% gewijzigd door #ANONIEM op 15-08-2011 20:19:42 ]
[ Bericht 21% gewijzigd door #ANONIEM op 15-08-2011 20:19:42 ]
Record Nears: 7 Storms Without a Hurricane
If Tropical Storm Gert, currently churning to the east of Bermuda, fails to strengthen to a hurricane, this year will be the first since record-keeping began to have seven tropical cyclones come and go before the season's first hurricane.
The last time a hurricane season saw so many tropical storms before seeing a hurricane was 2002. That year, Tropical Storm Gustav eventually broke the string by strengthening to a Category 4 hurricane. Gustav struck Louisiana on Sept. 8, killing 112 people.
Gert has only an 8 percent chance of strengthening to a hurricane over the next 72 hours, according to the National Hurricane Center. But even if Gert doesn't become a hurricane, this unprecedented run of tropical storms may not be all that meaningful.
Recent stretches of less powerful tropical storms could be due to the fact that more storms are getting names today than in the past, said Phil Klozbach, a hurricane forecaster at Colorado State University in Fort Collins. Fifty years ago, small tropical storms would have gone unnoticed, whereas today they are being named.
"I wouldn't get too caught up in that [new record] except that it's an interesting piece of trivia," Klozbach told OurAmazingPlanet.
The hurricane forecast from the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) calls for 14 to 19 named storms (which include tropical storms and hurricanes), seven to 10 hurricanes and three to five major hurricanes (Category 3 or higher).
"I'd say if we go another two weeks and there's no hurricane there might be something going on," Klotzbach said.
Hurricane season kicks into high gear around Aug. 20, Klozbach said. Last year was a late-blooming season, but it was unusually active. Those hurricanes might not have been noticed by people in the United States, however, as none of them made landfall in the U.S.
A hurricane has not hit the United States in nearly three years. If no hurricanes hit the United States this year, the 3-year gap would be the longest lull between U.S. hurricane landfalls in recorded history, according to data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.
bron
If Tropical Storm Gert, currently churning to the east of Bermuda, fails to strengthen to a hurricane, this year will be the first since record-keeping began to have seven tropical cyclones come and go before the season's first hurricane.
The last time a hurricane season saw so many tropical storms before seeing a hurricane was 2002. That year, Tropical Storm Gustav eventually broke the string by strengthening to a Category 4 hurricane. Gustav struck Louisiana on Sept. 8, killing 112 people.
Gert has only an 8 percent chance of strengthening to a hurricane over the next 72 hours, according to the National Hurricane Center. But even if Gert doesn't become a hurricane, this unprecedented run of tropical storms may not be all that meaningful.
Recent stretches of less powerful tropical storms could be due to the fact that more storms are getting names today than in the past, said Phil Klozbach, a hurricane forecaster at Colorado State University in Fort Collins. Fifty years ago, small tropical storms would have gone unnoticed, whereas today they are being named.
"I wouldn't get too caught up in that [new record] except that it's an interesting piece of trivia," Klozbach told OurAmazingPlanet.
The hurricane forecast from the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) calls for 14 to 19 named storms (which include tropical storms and hurricanes), seven to 10 hurricanes and three to five major hurricanes (Category 3 or higher).
"I'd say if we go another two weeks and there's no hurricane there might be something going on," Klotzbach said.
Hurricane season kicks into high gear around Aug. 20, Klozbach said. Last year was a late-blooming season, but it was unusually active. Those hurricanes might not have been noticed by people in the United States, however, as none of them made landfall in the U.S.
A hurricane has not hit the United States in nearly three years. If no hurricanes hit the United States this year, the 3-year gap would be the longest lull between U.S. hurricane landfalls in recorded history, according to data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.
bron
93l is weer behoorlijk verzwakt. 20%
Verderop voor de kust van Afrika lijkt een nieuw gebied te ontstaan.
Verderop voor de kust van Afrika lijkt een nieuw gebied te ontstaan.
Je zal haast verwachten dat de V.S. dit jaar een landfall gaat krijgen. GFS laat om de zoveel tijd een gebied in de Golf zien en in de run van vanmorgen is het een direct hit op Florida.
Kaartje 28augustus
[ Bericht 0% gewijzigd door #ANONIEM op 16-08-2011 11:40:03 ]
Kaartje 28augustus
[ Bericht 0% gewijzigd door #ANONIEM op 16-08-2011 11:40:03 ]
En GFS laat deze doortrekken naar Florida en misschien wel de golf. Ziet er gevaarlijk uit en keert steeds terug in de kaarten. Morgen (of vrijdag) onstaat waarschijnlijk de invest van dit systeem.quote:
GFS laat as zondag een flinke storm zien bij Puerto Rico
[ afbeelding ]
En die Donna...dat was er eentje zegquote:GFS/Euro, forecasting wave as strong as Donna was in 1960 when it came off Africa to emerge off the African coast Sunday
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Donna
Gaat 93l toch nog de volgende storm met een naam krijgen en misschien de eerste orkaan dit seizoen?
wundergroundquote:Caribbean disturbance 93L
A westward-moving tropical wave in the Central Caribbean a few hundred miles south of Hispaniola, Invest 93L, has increased in organization overnight, building up a modest amount of heavy thunderstorms. Low-level spiral bands have begun to form on all sides of the storm this morning. There are currently no signs of a surface circulation, though there is plenty of large-scale rotation apparent on satellite imagery. Dry air surrounds 93L and has infiltrated the center of the disturbance, giving 93L a doughnut-like appearance. However, the disturbance is steadily moistening its environment and is under low wind shear of 5 - 10 knots, so this dry air should gradually mix out today and allow 93L to continue to organize. There is a hurricane hunter mission scheduled for this afternoon at 2pm EDT to see if a tropical depression is forming.
93L will bring heavy rain showers to southern Haiti this afternoon and to Jamaica tonight. By Thursday, 93L's forward motion will slow to 10 - 15 mph, and the storm will bring heavy rains to Northern Honduras and Northeast Nicaragua. These rains will spread to Belize and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula by Saturday. The latest SHIPS model forecast shows wind shear remaining in the low range and the atmosphere steadily moistening as 93L enters the Western Caribbean on Thursday. All of the models agree that the ridge of high pressure steering 93L to the west will remain strong, forcing the storm into a landfall Friday in Northeast Nicaragua or Northeast Honduras. It is possible that 93L will have time to intensify into a Category 1 hurricane before then, though landfall as a tropical storm would be more likely, given the dry air that 93L needs to overcome. Regardless of development, the storm will bring very heavy rains of 4 - 8 inches or more to Nicaragua and Honduras. These rains are likely to cause dangerous flash flooding and mudslides. NHC gave 93L a 30% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Friday morning in their 8am outlook; I'd put these odds at 50% now, given the continued increase in organization seen on satellite images.
quote:A tropical wave near 14°N 34°W, about 500 miles west-southwest of the Cape Verde Islands off the coast of Africa, is moving westward near 15 - 20 mph. This wave has little heavy thunderstorm activity associated with it due to dry air, but an impressive amount of large-scale spin is obvious in visible satellite loops. This wave is expected to arrive in the Lesser Antilles Islands by Saturday. Three of our four reliable models for predicting tropical storm genesis predict that this wave could develop into a tropical depression sometime Friday through Sunday. A west-northwest track through the Northeast Caribbean bringing the storm near Puerto Rico by Sunday or Monday is favored by most of the models.
