Zonnevlammen #2: Recht op aarde af

SOLAR FLARE X2 CLASS MOST POWERFUL CMA IN FOUR YEARS IT WILL HIT EARTH IN 48HRS FEB 15 2011.mov

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Sterrenwacht waarschuwt voor "extreem ruimteweer"

Bij de Koninklijke Sterrenwacht (KSB) zijn afgelopen nacht de automatische alarmsystemen in werking getreden: op de Zon is een extreme zonnevlam waargenomen. Dat meldt de KSB, die waarschuwt voor een mogelijke impact voor onze planeet. De vorige zonnevlam van die grootte dateert van december 2006. Sommigen opperden in 2009 zelfs dat de Zon zogenaamd "dood" zou zijn. Maar niets is minder waar, aldus de KSB. Volgens de gespecialiseerde website spaceweater.com deed zich de eerste zogenaamde "x-flare" voor van de nieuwe zonnecyclus (die 11 jaar duurt), de 24ste cyclus. De piek was om 02.56 uur Belgische tijd.



De KSB waarschuwt op basis van satellietgegevens, onder andere van de Belgische Proba-2 satelliet, dat een plasmawolk zich richting Aarde voortbeweegt met een vermoedelijke snelheid van 1.000 km/s. Die wolk zal de Aarde donderdag treffen. Een satelliet die zich vlak voor de Aarde in het zicht van de Zon bevindt heeft ook reeds een stroom van energetische deeltjes waargenomen. Voorlopig is het stormniveau niet bereikt, voegt de KSB eraan toe.

Noorderlicht
Het ruimteweerteam moet nu in de eerste plaats de magnetische structuur van de wolk proberen te achterhalen. Die bepaalt hoe het magnetisch schild van de Aarde op de impact zal reageren. Als een aantal voorwaarden zijn voldaan, kunnen we misschien donderdag het noorderlicht waarnemen, zegt de Sterrenwacht. Extreem ruimteweer kan satellieten doen uitvallen en kan gevolgen hebben voor de stroomvoorziening op Aarde.

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Monsterflare heading for earth
The sun unleashed its strongest solar flare in four years last night (Feb. 14), hurling a massive wave of charged particles from electrified gas into space and toward Earth.

The solar storm sent a flash of radiation that hit Earth in a matter of minutes. Now a huge cloud of charged particles is headed our way. These coronal mass ejections, as they are called, typically take around 24 hours or more to arrive. They can spark spectacular displays of the aurora borealis, or Northern Lights, at high latitudes and sometimes even into the northern United States.

The mega flare, which registered as a Class X2.2 flare on the scale of solar flares, was the first class X flare to occur in the new solar cycle of activity, which began last year. The sun is now ramping up toward a solar maximum around 2013.

"It has been the largest flare since Dec 6, 2006, so a long time coming," said Phil Chamberlin, deputy project scientistfor NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory, which observed the flare. "There were some clues that led us to believe the likelihood of moderate to large flares (M class or above) could occur, but we were all surprised when it actually happened to be a large X-class."

Class X flares are the strongest types of solar flares that can erupt from the sun. There are also two weaker categories: Class M flares, which are medium strength but still powerful, and Class C flares, which are the weakest storms from the sun.

Last night's X2.2 flare is the most powerful solar eruption of the sun's current weather cycle, called Solar Cycle 24. According to the website Spaceweather.com, which monitors space weather and skywatching events, the flare was the strongest of the last four years.

"It just means that Solar Cycle 24 is ramping up!" Chamberlin told SPACE.com. "This is the first of probably many more X-class flare to occur over the next 2 to 4 years as we reach the peak and then descend back down from solar cycle 24 maximum."

The Monday flare came on the heels of another, only slightly less powerful, class M6.6 flare on Sunday, Feb. 13. Both events erupted from the same area on the sun, called active region 1158

"AR 1158 is in the southern hemisphere, which has been lagging the north in activity but now leads in big flares!" NASA scientists wrote on the Solar Dynamics Observatory website.

Yesterday's Class X flare erupted at 8:50 p.m. EST on Feb.14 (0150 GMT Feb. 15).

Such a flare can bathe the Earth in high doses of ultraviolet radiation and X-rays hurl a huge burst of solar wind in our direction. When this burst arrives at Earth, the electrons and protons from the solar wind come into contact with our planet's magnetic field, and stream toward the magnetic poles.

The disturbance can create a geomagnetic storm in Earth's magnetic field.

"Geomagnetic storms are possible when the CME arrives 36 to 48 hours hence," Spaceweather.com reported.

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Plasmawolk bereikt aarde
De plasmawolk die maandag de zon heeft verlaten, heeft vrijdagmorgen de aarde bereikt. De 'coronal mass ejection' botste omstreeks 02.00 uur Belgische tijd met het magnetisch veld van de aarde. De impact was niet zo hevig als enkele dagen eerder werd verwacht.

Donderdag had de Koninklijke Belgische Sterrenwacht al laten weten dat de plasmawolk hoogstwaarschijnlijk was vertraagd door de zonnewind en door twee voorafgaande minder snelle plasmawolken.

De wolk heeft hierdoor een deel van zijn energie verloren, wat verklaart dat de impact minder energetisch was. De voorspelling luidde dat er in België geen poollicht te zien zou zijn.
Zonnemassa

Een plasmawolk is een grote hoeveelheid zonnemassa die wordt weggekatapulteerd. Zo'n wolk bereikt meestal na twee tot vijf dagen onze planeet als ze onze richting uitvliegt. Een plasmawolk kan een magnetische storm veroorzaken.

Radiocommunicatie wordt bemoeilijkt of kan wegvallen, navigatiesystemen ondervinden nadeel, elektrische stromen kunnen geīnduceerd worden in elektriciteits- en pijpleidingen. Bij magnetische stormen is de breedtegraad belangrijk. Of het dag of nacht is, maakt niet uit.

Het magnetisch veld van de aarde beschermt ons tegen de impact van plasmawolken.

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Scientists warn for solar 'Katrina'
The sun is waking up from a long quiet spell. Last week it sent out the strongest flare for four years – and scientists are warning that earth should prepare for an intense electromagnetic storm that, in the worst case, could be a “global Katrina” costing the world economy $2,000bn.

Senior officials responsible for policy on solar storms – also known as space weather – in the US, UK and Sweden urged more preparedness at the annual meeting of the American Association for the Advancement of Science in Washington.
“We have to take the issue of space weather seriously,” said Sir John Beddington, UK chief scientist. “The sun is coming out of a quiet period, and our vulnerability has increased since the last solar maximum [around 2000].”

“Predict and prepare should be the watchwords,” agreed Jane Lubchenco, head of the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. “So much more of our technology is vulnerable than it was 10 years ago.”

A solar storm starts with an eruption of super-hot gas travelling out from the sun at speeds of up to 5m miles an hour. Electrically charged particles hit earth’s atmosphere 20 to 30 hours later, causing electromagnetic havoc.

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APPROACHING ACTIVE REGION: A significant active region is about to emerge over the sun's northeastern limb. The underlying sunspots are not yet visible from Earth, but the region's towering magnetic canopy is already in view. NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) took this picture during the early hours of Feb. 23rd:

A better view is had by NASA's STEREO-B probe, stationed over the sun's eastern limb where it can see the region from top down. Recent movies beamed back by STEREO-B show flashes of extreme UV radiation and hints of magnetic instability. This could herald a period of renewed solar activity when the region turns toward Earth in the days ahead. Or the action could peter out beforehand. Stay tuned for updates.
Bron: Spaceweather.com

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The quiet didn't last long. Earth-orbiting satellites detected an M3-class solar flare at 0735 UT on Feb. 24th. The source was an active region located just behind the sun's eastern limb. The eruption produced strong radio emissions, a coronal mass ejection (not Earth directed), and this spectacular picture taken by NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory:

The active region responsible for this blast will emerge over the eastern limb during the next 24-48 hours, setting the stage for possible geoeffective solar activity. Stay tuned for updates.

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Another X-flare heading for earth?
X-FLARE: March 9th ended with a powerful solar flare. Earth-orbiting satellites detected an X1.5-class explosion from behemoth sunspot 1166 around 2323 UT. A movie from NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory shows a bright flash of UV radiation plus some material being hurled away from the blast site:

A first look at coronagraph images from NASA's STEREO-B spacecraft suggests that the explosion did propel a coronal mass ejection (CME) toward Earth. This conclusion is preliminary, however, so check back later for updates.

After four years without any X-flares, the sun has produced two of the powerful blasts in less than one month: Feb. 15th and March 9th. This continues the recent trend of increasing solar activity, and shows that Solar Cycle 24 is heating up. NOAA forecasters estimate a 5% chance of more X-flares during the next 24 hours

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Solar activity heats up
April 14, 2011: If you've ever stood in front of a hot stove, watching a pot of water and waiting impatiently for it to boil, you know what it feels like to be a solar physicist.

Back in 2008, the solar cycle plunged into the deepest minimum in nearly a century. Sunspots all but vanished, solar flares subsided, and the sun was eerily quiet.

"Ever since, we've been waiting for solar activity to pick up," says Richard Fisher, head of the Heliophysics Division at NASA Headquarters in Washington DC. "It's been three long years."

Quiet spells on the sun are nothing new. They come along every 11 years or so—it's a natural part of the solar cycle. This particular solar minimum, however, was lasting longer than usual, prompting some researchers to wonder if it would ever end.

News flash: The pot is starting to boil. "Finally," says Fisher, "we are beginning to see some action."

As 2011 unfolds, sunspots have returned and they are crackling with activity. On February 15th and again on March 9th, Earth orbiting satellites detected a pair of "X-class" solar flares--the most powerful kind of x-ray flare. The last such eruption occurred back in December 2006.

Another eruption on March 7th hurled a billion-ton cloud of plasma away from the sun at five million mph (2200 km/s). The rapidly expanding cloud wasn't aimed directly at Earth, but it did deliver a glancing blow to our planet's magnetic field. The off-center impact on March 10th was enough to send Northern Lights spilling over the Canadian border into US states such as Wisconsin, Minnesota, and Michigan.

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Begint de zon aan een winterslaap?
NIJMEGEN - De warmtebron van onze aarde lijkt van slag. Volgens Amerikaanse astronomen wordt de zonnecyclus verstoord en maakt de zon zich op voor een winterslaap. Dinsdag presenteerden verschillende teams in New Mexico metingen die suggereren dat de zon lang inactief blijft en misschien niet meer op gang komt. Moeten we ons opmaken voor een (kleine) ijstijd?

Sterrenkundige Frans Snik van het Sterrenkundig Instituut van de Universiteit Utrecht plaatste onlangs een zonnetelescoop in Arizona om de nieuwe zonnecyclus te bestuderen.

Wat is uw verwachting, komt de volgende zonnecyclus wel op gang?

„Of en wanneer er een nieuw zonnecyclus begint is koffiedik kijken. In 2007 werd het begin van de nieuwe zonnecyclus verwacht, maar deze begon uiteindelijk pas in 2011. Er is veel onbekend over de cyclus van de zon. Doordat we niet in de zon kunnen kijken en de processen in de zon complex zijn, is voorspellen uitermate moeilijk. De zon volgt ‘gewoonlijk’ een vast patroon waarbij binnen elf jaar activiteit (zonnemaximum) wordt afgewisseld met kalmte (zonneminimum).

Wat bestudeert de nieuwe Nederlandse zonnetelescoop in Arizona?

„De zonnetelescoop bestudeert magnetisme buiten de zonnevlekken. Een zonnevlek is een groot magneetveld dat uit het binnenste van de zon komt. Het is de vraag of in het magneetveld buiten deze vlekken ook sprake is van een elfjarig cyclus. In ieder geval zullen we bijdragen aan het begrip van de activiteitscyclus van de zon.’’

Wat merken we op aarde van een lange periode van zonneminimum?

„Het zal afgelopen zijn met het noorderlicht. De nodige activiteit van de zon om tot de lichtshow te komen blijft bij zonneminimum namelijk afwezig. Qua temperatuur is er een klein verschil van ongeveer een tiende graad. Opvallend is dat ondanks dit kleine verschil elf van de laatste zestien Elfstedentochten gehouden zijn tijdens een zonneminimum. Een lange periode van zonneminimum kan ervoor zorgen dat het nog iets kouder wordt, al ontbreekt het bewijs voor deze bewering. In de tweede helft van de 17de eeuw was er een lange periode van zonneminimum die wordt aangeduid als de ‘Kleine IJstijd’. De vele schilderijen uit deze periode tonen dan ook veel ijs en sneeuw.”

Hoe beīnvloedt de zonnecyclus de opwarming van de aarde?

„Een zonneminimum kan de aarde een beetje helpen af te koelen en de opwarming door de uitstoot van CO2 te maskeren. Het gevaar is wel dat bij het begin van een zonnemaximum de aarde de schade van CO2 dubbel en dwars terugkrijgt. Het is dan ook raadzaam voorzichtig te blijven met de uitstoot van CO2"

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BIG SUNSPOTS: NOAA forecasters estimate a 40% chance of M-class solar flares today. The source would be one of three big sunspots emerging along the sun's northeastern limb. Click on the image to view a 3-day movie from NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory:

Among the three, the leading sunspot AR1260 is most active. It has produced more than a dozen C-class flares in the past 24 hours, more than doubling the total for the entire month of July so far. New sunspot AR1262, however, could eventually cause more trouble. Magnetograms of the active region reveal a delta-class magnetic field that harbors energy for powerful X-class eruptions. Readers with solar telescopes are encouraged to monitor developments.

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CHANCE OF FLARES: Sunspot 1260 has developed a delta-class magnetic field that harbors energy for powerful X-class solar flares. Such an eruption today would be Earth-directed as the sunspot turns to face our planet. (continued below)

Note: In yesterday's news item, sunspot 1263 was mislabeled 1262.

Sunspot 1260 is leading a parade of big sunspots across the solar disk--one of the finest displays of solar activity in years. Even the smallest dark cores in these sunspot groups are as wide as planets, and they are crackling with C-class flares. Readers with solar telescopes are encouraged to monitor developments.

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M6-CLASS SOLAR FLARE: Earth orbiting satellites have just detected a significant M6-class solar flare. The source appears to be sunspot 1261. Increased energetic proton fluxes are possible in the vicinity of Earth. Stay tuned for updates.

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Op dinsdag 9 augustus 2011 14:05 schreef basst2005 het volgende:
Wat betekend dit precies?

[ afbeelding ]

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EMERGING SUNSPOT: A big new sunspot is emerging over the sun's northeastern limb. AR1271 has at least four dark cores and it is crackling with small flares. The sunspot's entrance was captured in this 24-hour movie from the Solar Dynamics Observatory:

NOAA forecasters estimate a 60% chance of M-class solar flares during the next 24 hours. Because of its location near the sun's limb, AR1271 does not yet pose a threat for Earth-directed eruptions. This could change in the days ahead, however, as the sunspot turns to face our planet. Readers with solar telescopes are encouraged to monitor developments.

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Nasa briefing on Thursday due to recent Solar Flare activity

Solar Flare Activity Prompting NASA to Convene a News Briefing Thursday in Washington.
Increasing solar activity and the threat that coronal mass ejections (CME) pose to Earth has prompted NASA to convene a news briefing at its Headquarter building in Washington on Thursday afternoon.

Thursday’s briefing has been arranged, space agency officials say, in light of new information coming from NASA’s Solar Terrestrial Relations Observatory (STEREO), spacecraft and other NASA probes. The briefing will feature new details about the structure of solar storms and the impact they have on Earth.

The briefing panellists are Madhulika Guhathakurta, STEREO program scientist; Craig DeForest, staff scientist, Southwest Research Institute, David Webb, research physicist, Institute for Scientific Research, Boston College; and Alysha Reinard, research scientist, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and the University of Colorado.

A massive solar flare, the largest recorded in four years, occurred last Tuesday prompting fears the blast could result in some disruption to Global Positioning Satellites (GPS) or communication signals around the world.

Solar flares happen when the powerful magnetic fields in and around the sun reconnect. They’re usually associated with active regions, often seen as sun spots, where the magnetic fields are strongest. The most powerful flare on record was in 2003, during the last solar maximum. It was so powerful that it overloaded the sensors measuring it. The current solar cycle will peak in 2013.

A powerful X-class flare can create long lasting radiation storms, which can harm satellites and even give airline passengers, flying near the poles, small radiation doses. X flares also have the potential to create global transmission problems and world-wide blackouts.

In 1989, a geomagnetic storm energised ground induced currents which disrupted electric power distribution throughout most of Quebec province in Canada and produced aurora borealis displays as far south as Texas in the USA.

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EARTH-DIRECTED FLARE: This morning at 0150 UT, sunspot 1283 produced an M5.3-class solar flare. A movie from NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory shows the flash of extreme UV radiation. Because of the sunspot's central location on the solar disk, the eruption was Earth-directed and a CME might be heading our way. Stay tuned for updates.

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STRONG SOLAR ACTIVITY: Sunspot 1283 is crackling with solar flares. Yesterday, Sept. 6th, the active region produced an M5.3-class eruption at 0150 UT followed by a X2.1-class event at 2220 UT. NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory recorded this extreme UV flash from the X-flare:

The flares produced waves of ionization in Earth's upper atmosphere, briefly altering the propagation of low-frequency radio signals around our planet. Moreover, the two eruptions hurled clouds of plasma (CMEs) in our general direction. A preliminary analysis of SOHO and STEREO imagery suggests that the CMEs could sail substantially north of Earth, delivering a glancing blow to Earth's magnetic field as they pass. ETA: Sept. 8-10. Stay tuned for updates

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NOTHER X-FLARE: Earth-orbiting satellites have detected another strong flare from sunspot 1283. The X1.8-class event at 2238 UT on Sept. 7th produced a bright flash of extreme UV radiation and hurled an inky-dark plume of plasma into space. Click to view the movie from NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory:

This is the third significant flare from sunspot 1283 since Sept. 6th. All three eruptions propelled CMEs in the general direction of Earth. Not one of the CMEs, however, will hit our planet squarely. Glancing blows from the three clouds will commence sometime on Sept. 9th and continue through Sept. 11th, possibly sparking minor geomagnetic storms.

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Mega quakes occur more frequently when sun has fewer sunspots: researchers

The frequency of mega earthquakes increases during periods when the sun has fewer sunspots, a team of Japanese researchers has found.

The finding was made by a team led by Kiyofumi Yumoto, a researcher in space and earth electromagnetism at Kyushu University's Space Environment Research Center.

The March 11 Great East Japan Earthquake occurred when there were few sunspots. The latest research suggests that the sun's activity could influence movements beneath the earth's surface.

Sunspots gradually increase and decrease in number in a cycle of about 11 years, and cause changes in the earth's atmosphere. The research team investigated the possibility that they could also produce changes beneath the earth's surface, and compared data on the number of sunspots between 1963 and 2000 and the 327,625 earthquakes of magnitude 4 or more that occurred during this period.

The study found that 65 percent of the earthquakes with magnitudes between 4.0 and 4.9 occurred during the periods with the fewest sunspots (each lasting about two years). The figure was around the same for earthquakes with magnitudes between 5.0 and 7.9. However, the figure was higher for the 28 mega earthquakes with magnitudes in the 8.0-9.9 range, with 79 percent of them occurring during periods with the fewest sunspots.

When there are fewer sunspots, a phenomenon occurs in which solar winds, or streams of charged particles from the sun, get stronger an average of three to four times a month. Seventy percent of the earthquakes of magnitude 6.0 or stronger occurred at such times.

Solar winds that become stormy are known to be able to induce strong currents in power transmission lines, which can lead to major blackouts.

"The relationship between the sun and the activity of earthquakes is not clear, but we hope that this is a step in uncovering the mystery of quakes," Yumoto said.

The results of the group's research will be announced at a meeting of the Society of Geomagnitism and Earth, Planetary and Space Sciences, which opens in Kobe on Nov. 3.

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Op maandag 26 september 2011 21:58 schreef zenkelly het volgende:
CME(één van de ..) is aangekomen: KP=8!!! Zelfs in België is nu poollicht te zien....wie kan de bewolking en regen ff wegduwen, dan zouden we hier ook wat kunnen zien!

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Sunspot 1302
it's BIG...
it's BAD...

and it's coming our way...

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Op dinsdag 27 september 2011 20:00 schreef DemonRage het volgende:

[..]

Dat kan ik nergens lezen op spaceweather.com... maar we kijken nu wel bijna recht in de loop van het geweer.

twitter:

spaceweather twitterde op dinsdag 27-09-2011 om 19:01:23 Sunspot 1302: It's Big. It's Bad. And It's Coming Our Way http://srs.gs/16hN reageer retweet

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Op dinsdag 27 september 2011 20:00 schreef DemonRage het volgende:

Btw... deze astroīde staat ook maar pas in het lijstje:
2011 SE58 Sep 27 0.6 LD -- 13 m