Olietopic #12 - Recessie op komst

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Op maandag 11 juli 2011 08:57 schreef Perrin het volgende:
En niet te vergeten dat we nog even alle voertuigen met verbrandingsmotoren moeten ombouwen naar voertuigen met electromotoren, inclusief nieuwe dikke accu.

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Op maandag 11 juli 2011 09:02 schreef stbabylon het volgende:

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Waarvoor je heel veel nu al schaarse (edel)metalen nodig hebt

We're sooooooooooo fucked

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Op maandag 11 juli 2011 15:24 schreef JimmyJames het volgende:

Je zou toch denken dat het 'energierendement' van zonnepanelen alleen maar toeneemt net zoals de snelheid van computers?

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The Last Drops: How to Bridge the Gap Between Oil and Green Energy

For all our talk of an online future unbounded by physical limits, life in our increasingly global economy still requires the movement of actual people and things, often over long distances. And without a steady supply of prehistoric hydrocarbons, that movement would come to a halt. More than 95 percent of the vehicles on Earth--from cars to trucks to freighters to jumbo jets--run on oil products, and without them we’d be hard-pressed to commute to the office or import our gadgets, much less till our fields or get food from the farm to our kitchens.

We face some complex choices, not just about where to extract what kind of oil, but also about when to extract it. But find one we must. We have already burned our way through most of the world’s easy oil. Now we’re drilling for the hard stuff: unconventional resources such as shale and heavy oil that will be more difficult and expensive to discover, extract, and refine. The environmental costs are also on the rise. Oil production remains a significant local ecological hazard—as we were reminded by the disastrous failure of the Deepwater Horizon well in the Gulf of Mexico last year--even as oil’s large carbon footprint threatens the global environment as a whole.

Bridging the gap between our current oil economy and an as-yet-undefined clean-energy economy will not be easy. Alternative systems, such as hybrid cars powered by biofuel drawn from oceanic algae farms, may be vastly more sustainable someday. But “sustainability” is an economic concept as much as it is an environmental one. People will always prefer cheap energy to expensive energy. (Indeed, many people in less-wealthy nations require cheap energy simply to survive.) And the process of making alternative energy systems affordable will be long and uncertain, in part because the oil-based systems they must compete against (internal combustion engines, for instance) will themselves become even more efficient and alluring.

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Op maandag 11 juli 2011 21:09 schreef Basp1 het volgende:

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Ik vind het een beetje samenraapsel van dingen. Ze hebben het over de verschillende soorten bronnen die we nog tot onze beschikking kunnen hebben. Bij sommige techologien zet men er dan nog even de eroei bij. Verder springt men dan nog een paar keer op de tak van co2 uitstoot en het afvangen ervan. Voornamelijk lijkt het mij over komen als een artikel om zo lang mogelijk de transitie naar een duurzame energievoorziening uit stellen goed te praten alleen omdat we nog meer olie kunnen winnen.

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But of course, we don’t live in a perfect world. For now, oil producers will do what they have always done, which is to extract oil as cheaply as they can. And oil consumers will follow suit, buying the cheapest energy they can. We may eventually ask the market to take the true costs of production into account, perhaps by way of a carbon tax or some kind of climate regulation. Or we may not. Energy policy has never been particularly far-sighted. There is little chance that the transition to a clean-energy economy will be entirely clean. It will require trade-offs and compromises, and the cost of those trade-offs and compromises will rise with every year that we wait to get serious about moving away from oil.

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Op maandag 11 juli 2011 06:31 schreef Q. het volgende:

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Oh ja, goed idee, als ze nu investeren in een experimentele techniek hebben we vast over tien jaar al honderden werkende centrales. Want zoveel hebben we er nodig om het gebrek aan olie op te kunnen vangen.

Even ter vergelijking, om dezelfde hoeveelheid energie op te wekken als we nu uit olie halen hebben we 6800 kerncentrales nodig. Er zijn er momenteel 400 op de wereld.

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Conclusion
Gaining an illustrative picture of a subject is very much a matter of habit. When
considering the consequences of peak oil, no everyday experiences and only few historical
parallels are at hand. It is therefore difficult to imagine how significant the effects of being
gradually deprived of one of our civilisation’s most important energy sources will be.
Psychological barriers cause indisputable facts to be blanked out and lead to almost
instinctively refusing to look into this difficult subject in detail.

Peak oil, however, is unavoidable. This study shows the existence of a very serious risk
that a global transformation of economic and social structures, triggered by a long-term
shortage of important raw materials, will not take place without frictions regarding
security policy. The disintegration of complex economic systems and their interdependent
infrastructures has immediate and in some cases profound effects on many areas of life,
particularly in industrialised countries.

The results of this study provide starting points for further research (cf. Chapter 4). This,
however, should not conceal the fact that the most difficult part of preparing for drastic
shortages in the resource base of the German economy will probably be the task of
implementing suitable preventive measures. The paradigm shift connected with this – less
efficiency, more robustness – contradicts economic logic and can therefore only partly be
left to market forces.

Even if the developments described in this study do not occur as depicted, it is still
necessary and sensible to prepare for peak oil. The time factor may be decisive for a
successful transformation towards post-fossil societies. In order to accelerate democratic
decision processes in this respect, it is necessary to embed the dangers of an eroding
resource basis in the public mind. This is the only way to develop the necessary problem
awareness for prospective settings of the course. In general, decentralised solutions can
indeed be encouraged by centralised agencies, but not developed and implemented. At the
same time, Bundeswehr internal options for preparation must be evaluated and exploited.

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Op woensdag 31 augustus 2011 16:20 schreef waht het volgende:
De laatste keer dat de Duitsers met een olie-probleem zaten lag heel Europa in puin.

Verder komt dit wel overeen met het standpunt van de Amerikaanse 'army engineers'.

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http://wikileaks.org/cable/2009/04/09DHAHRAN89.html
5. (S/NF) On Apr 6, Jack Moore (protect), Director of Aramco's
Washington office, told the CG and EconOff that Aramco's
Executive Management have grown increasingly concerned about the
new U.S. administration's pledges to end America's dependence on
foreign oil imports. He said that al-Falih once angrily
asserted to him, "We [Aramco] can take care of their addiction!"
(Note: This statement was meant as a threat to cut off Saudi
oil supplies to the U.S. End Note.) However, Moore said that
he has tried to reassure the Executive Management that this was
merely domestic political rhetoric and that the U.S. will
continue to be a strong market for Saudi oil for a long time to
come. [..]
6. (S/NF) Moore said that al-Falih and other senior Executive
Management appear to take the U.S. administration's anti-foreign
oil comments "personally."
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North Sea gas production falls 25%

North Sea gas production has slumped by 25% in the second quarter of the year, an alarming increase in the rate of decline that will cut tax revenues and could put more pressure on government to agree controversial shale gas developments.

Figures from the Department of Energy and Climate Change (DECC) also show a 36% rise in coal imports, but a leap from 6.3% to 9.6% for the amount of electricity generated by wind and other renewables.

The department records that the output of oil and associated gas liquids fell by 16% in the three months to the end of June, compared with a year earlier – the biggest decline since records began 16 years ago.

This left Britain importing 3.6m tonnes of oil in the second quarter, compared with 2.8m tonnes in the same period of 2010, even though total oil demand fell by 1.7%.

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Op woensdag 31 augustus 2011 16:35 schreef Perrin het volgende:

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Vooral opmerkelijk, wat mij betreft, is 't verschil tussen de toon van urgentie in de militaire rapporten en de schijnbare complete desinteresse van politici.

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Op maandag 3 oktober 2011 08:26 schreef Q. het volgende:

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Het is langere-termijn denken hè? De politiek heeft maar een blikveld van maximaal 4 jaar, met lange-termijn-maatregelen win je op de korte termijn geen stemmen.

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Op maandag 3 oktober 2011 08:51 schreef Dinosaur_Sr het volgende:
Als je ziet hoe China de zonnecel industrie probeert te monopoliseren, vinden ze kennelijk een strategische asset.

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Op maandag 3 oktober 2011 12:35 schreef Basp1 het volgende:

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Waarom zouden ze ook nog een olieland willen veroveren (aangezien we toch bijna op de piek zitten ) in dat opzicht hebben de chinezen volgens mij wel een veel langere termijn waarop hun hun strategische keuzes baseren.

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The End of Economic Growth

You might have heard the news: we're at the end of growth. Growth of the economy, of consumption, of wealth. That this would happen isn’t news to those who’ve followed the writings of Meadows, Heinberg, and many others. What’s different now is that the end of growth may have actually arrived.

On Friday we learned that after only two years of expansion (mid 2009 - mid 2011), the U.S. economy is re-entering recession.

Why is this happening so soon? What's the bigger context here?

We're not just entering a new recession - we're at the end of growth as we've known it.
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We have passed or are near many of the peaks in natural resources, both by drawing down non-renewable resources and by hyperexploiting renewable ones.

As the foundation of oil upon which we've built our industrial system crumbles, we will face direct economic impacts. Hirsch, whose 2005 study for the Department of Energy on the peaking of world oil production is still the gold standard, conducted further studies to try to understand how oil connects to GDP. He concluded that there's a 1-to-1 relationship: for every 1% oil production declines, world GDP declines 1%.

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Op maandag 3 oktober 2011 14:59 schreef JimmyJames het volgende:
Yergin heeft trouwens een nieuw boek. Heeft iemand het al gelezen?

http://www.amazon.com/Que(...)id=1317646744&sr=8-1

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The Energy Expert You Shouldn’t Trust

This could be a dangerous reliance, for Yergin is an advocate for the fossil fuel community, not an honest broker of information. Nearly all the data cited in the book is from his company and is proprietary and non-public, so it can’t be verified or challenged. He doesn’t appear to take seriously the views of people he doesn’t agree with, and they are not included in his extensive bibliography or interviewee list. When he makes (or quotes himself making) forecasts, it is almost always at the high end of “as much as,” putting the best possible picture on things. He treats overall supplies and continued growth as assured. He is skeptical only when it comes to the concept that new sources of energy could upset the status quo.

One thing Yergin never asks, though, is what if he’s wrong?

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There Will Be Oil, But At What Price?

Conventional crude ended its 150-year-long growth trajectory in 2004 and flattened out around 74 million barrels per day. Crude supply did not budge when oil prices tripled from 2004 to 2008, but global demand remained firm, shrugging off a recessionary dip in 2009. All the growth in supply since then was not crude but unconventional liquids, including natural gas liquids, biofuels, refinery gains, synthetic oil from tar sands, and other marginal resources. These liquids are by no means equivalent to crude. Yergin's calming charts include these unconventional liquids and hide the fundamental issue of the depletion of mature fields. They also hide the declining energy density, higher cost, and lower flow rates of these new resources.

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Op maandag 11 juli 2011 15:24 schreef JimmyJames het volgende:
Hoe zit het eigenlijk met die zonnepanelen in de sahara? Kunnen we afhankelijk blijven van Noord-Afrika en het M-O voor onze energiebehoeftes

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Je zou toch denken dat het 'energierendement' van zonnepanelen alleen maar toeneemt net zoals de snelheid van computers?

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Op dinsdag 18 oktober 2011 13:27 schreef Basp1 het volgende:

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Als ik het goed heb is Brent een wat lichtere oliesoort waardoor je ontzwavelings - raffinage installaties niet zoveel hoeven te werken en volgens mij was er een tekort aan ontzwaveling - raffinage voor de zwaardere oliesoorten.

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Op dinsdag 18 oktober 2011 15:03 schreef tjoptjop het volgende:
Van wat ik begrepen heb is het verschil voornamelijk vanwege de invoer van Canadese olie icm beperkte raffinage capaciteit in dat gebied en geen directe verbinding naar de Golf.

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IEA Sees Dire Future For Climate, Energy Without New Technology

PARIS -(Dow Jones)- The world is headed for a "dire future" where high energy prices drag on economic growth and global average temperatures rise by more than 3.5 Celsius unless significant innovations to lower the cost of clean energy and carbon capture technology, said the International Energy Agency Wednesday.

Speaking at the conclusion of a two-day meeting with international energy ministers and business leaders in Paris, senior officials from the agency painted a gloomy picture of the world's current trajectory.

The meeting concluded that growth in energy demand will be powered largely by coal and the only hope of restraining the rise in global temperatures to safe levels is to hope that the creation of cheaper technologies to capture carbon dioxide "might eventually allow it to be used in a more environmentally benign manner."

The meeting, which was attended for the first time by ministers from a large number of emerging economies, was a clear acknowledgement of how economic realities conflict with the goal of reducing carbon dioxide emissions.

"The scale and breadth of the energy challenge is enormous," the IEA said.

Growing dependence on fossil fuels will also be economically damaging, it said. "Persistently high levels of spending on energy imports would impose a drag on economic growth in many countries," it said. "The risk of serious energy supply disruptions would continue to mount."

High oil prices this year have contributed to the economic slowdown many countries are currently experiencing, said the head of the IEA's oil markets division, David Fyfe.

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Fat Replaces Oil for F-16s as Biofuels Head to War: Commodities

The U.S. Air Force is set to certify all of its 40-plus aircraft models to burn fuels derived from waste oils and plants by 2013, three years ahead of target, Air Force Deputy Assistant Secretary Kevin Geiss said. The Army wants 25 percent of its energy from renewable sources by 2025. The Navy and Marines aim to shift half their energy use from oil, gas and coal by 2020.

“Reliance on fossil fuels is simply too much of a vulnerability for a military organization to have,” U.S. Navy Secretary Raymond Mabus said in an interview. “We’ve been certifying aircraft on biofuels. We’re doing solar and wind, geothermal, hydrothermal, wave, things like that on our bases.”

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Kuwait Sets Biggest Gulf Clean-Energy Goal to Boost Oil Exports

Sun-drenched Kuwait, a desert nation with no solar-power plants and electricity demand that’s growing about 8 percent a year, has set the most ambitious target for using renewable energy in the Gulf region.

OPEC’s fifth-biggest oil producer, whose air conditioners run cheaply off state-subsidized oil-fired power plants, aims to generate 10 percent of its electricity from sustainable sources by 2020, said Eyad Ali al-Falah, assistant undersecretary for technical services at the Ministry of Electricity and Water.

Kuwait is trying to free up oil for export and expand its generation capacity to support increased tourism, manufacturing and home building in a $112 billion development program.

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Op donderdag 27 oktober 2011 15:29 schreef Perrin het volgende:

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Op donderdag 27 oktober 2011 15:30 schreef stbabylon het volgende:

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Maar er is nog ladingen olie! Echt!

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Op donderdag 27 oktober 2011 17:15 schreef tjoptjop het volgende:

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Klopt, olie zal nooit opraken.

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Cash generation from operations was $11.5 billion during the third quarter. This is, yet again, a new quarterly record for the company and has resulted from continued strong operational performance.

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CNN: Former military leaders call for 30% cut in oil consumption

Conway was part of a group of 11 recently retired three- and four-star generals and admirals who prepared a report on American energy dependence as a national security threat.

In the report, Conway said that an oil tanker attack might now be beyond al Qaeda's capabilities, but the intent was clear.

He and the other military leaders said oil imports are directly linked to security, and that political compromise and resolve are necessary to slash demand by 30% within 10 years. Present circumstances give other countries or terrorists too much power to choke off oil supplies and cripple the U.S. economy, they say.

"Weaning America from oil in substantive ways will make us safer as a nation," the report says. "The pace and consistency of our country's movement along the path to energy security is a vital national security challenge."

Retired U.S. Army Gen. Paul Kern, the chairman of the group that debated and wrote the report, said Tuesday that too often the energy debate only focuses on short-term concerns, with long-term goals postponed.

"The time has come," Gen Kern told CNN. We can't put this off anymore."

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Op woensdag 2 november 2011 07:57 schreef RemcoDelft het volgende:
Zeggen dat je 30% minder olie moet verbruiken is natuurlijk makkelijk en zou zeker goed zijn, maar hij zegt er niet bij hoe zeker?

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Mexico's Pemex Oil Production Slips In First Week Of November

MEXICO CITY (Dow Jones)--Mexico's state-run oil company Petroleos Mexicanos, or Pemex, said on Monday that oil production in the first week of November averaged 2.512 million barrels a day, compared with full-month October's average of 2.563 million barrels a day.

Pemex said in a production report that in the Nov. 1-6 period, it sent an average of 1.497 million barrels a day of crude oil to export terminals, versus 1.414 million barrels a day on average in October. In the November period, Pemex kept 1.084 million barrels a day on average for its national refineries, compared with 1.158 million barrels a day last month.

The state oil monopoly has maintained crude-oil exports at relatively high levels this year, as it imports increasingly large quantities of gasoline, diesel fuel and propane gas, due to a lack of refinery capacity.

[In its latest trade report, Mexico's National Statistics Institute said that September's petroleum imports rose 79% as compared with the year-ago month, to $4.28 billion, and petroleum exports of mostly crude oil grew 31.8%, to $4.37 billion, making the nation a net petroleum exporter by a small margin for the month in dollar terms.

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Op woensdag 2 november 2011 07:57 schreef RemcoDelft het volgende:
Zeggen dat je 30% minder olie moet verbruiken is natuurlijk makkelijk en zou zeker goed zijn, maar hij zegt er niet bij hoe zeker?

Time to Deliver

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IEA Chief Economist delivers keynote speech at B20 Business Summit
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On investment in energy infrastructure…
The World Energy Outlook 2011, which will be released on 9 November, will show that $38 trillion of investment is required to meet projected energy demand through to 2035 and that investors in energy projects are facing a multitude of risks.

Breaking down this cumulative investment, Dr Birol explained that $16.9 trillion will be require for power; $10 trillion for oil; $9.5 trillion for natural gas; $1.1 trillion for coal; and $0.3 trillion for biofuels.

On access to energy…
Dr. Birol also stressed that over 1.3 billion people, around 20% of the global population, lack access to electricity, and 2.7 billion people, around 40% of the population, are without clean cooking facilities.

Investment of USD 48 billion per year is needed to provide universal energy access to the billions of the world's poor who lack it by 2030. While this is more than five times the current level of investment to expand energy access, it only represents around 3% of projected global energy investment.

On fossil fuel subsidies…
Fossil-fuel subsidies result in an economically inefficient allocation of resources and market distortions, while often failing to meet their intended objectives, Dr. Birol argued, presenting the findings of the report prepared for G20 Leaders.

Fossil fuel subsidies have been driven higher by the rebound in international energy prices. They totalled $409 billion in 2010 – about $110 billion up on 2009.

He warned that without further reform, spending on fossil-fuel consumption subsidies is set to reach $660 billion in 2020, or 0.7% of global GDP.
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Op dinsdag 8 november 2011 09:08 schreef waht het volgende:

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Jazeker, verbruik van fossiele brandstoffen wordt hier en daar gesubsidieerd.

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Op dinsdag 8 november 2011 09:14 schreef RemcoDelft het volgende:

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"Subsidie" is een groot woord: de eigen inwoners mogen het simpelweg kopen voor een prijs lager dan de wereldmarkt. Ik zou willen dat wij dat mochten met aardgas.

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Op dinsdag 8 november 2011 10:29 schreef Q. het volgende:

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Maar goed dat dat niet kan, dan zijn je voorraden helemaal zo op! Lage prijzen werken verspilling in de hand.

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Op dinsdag 8 november 2011 10:29 schreef Q. het volgende:

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Maar goed dat dat niet kan, dan zijn je voorraden helemaal zo op! Lage prijzen werken verspilling in de hand.

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'Alleen Iran wil de Grieken nog olie verkopen'

Griekenland is afhankelijk van Iraanse olie, omdat de meeste leveranciers geen olie meer willen verkopen aan de Grieken en banken weigeren een overeenkomst te financieren. Maar de Verenigde Staten en Europa willen juist de handel met Iran aan banden leggen, vanwege het nucleaire programma van het land.

Dat meldt persbureau Reuters vandaag op basis van verklaringen van oliehandelaren. 'Bedrijven als die van ons kunnen niet aan Griekenland leveren. Het risico is te groot', zegt een handelaar van een groot internationaal oliebedrijf tegen Reuters. 'Ons financieel departement weigert gewoon zaken te doen met Griekenland. Niet dat het land ons niet heeft betaald. Het is gewoon een voorzorgsmaatregel.