Campi Flegrei Napels: Supervulkaan kan leven Europa in bedreigen

quote:

Op zondag 11 juni 2023 17:01 schreef crystal_meth het volgende:

[..]
Euh, ik kan niet posten in dat topic (krijg geen invulveld, en ook geen boodschap "er is al ... dagen niet gepost, klik hier als je toch...").
En als ik één van de posts daar quote krijg ik dezelfde "interface" als bij een gesloten topic (maw geen "preview" of "invoer" button).

quote:

Parts of Italian volcano ‘stretched nearly to breaking point’, study findsParts of Italian volcano ‘stretched nearly to breaking point’, study finds

Campi Flegrei (Phlegraean Fields) near Naples is now in ‘extremely dangerous’ state, say academic experts

Half a million people live on a sprawling volcano in Italy – and the risk of an eruption has never been greater, according to a study.

The Campi Flegrei (Phlegraean Fields) volcano may be less well-known than Vesuvius, but is “extremely dangerous”, study co-author Stefano Carlino told AFP.

Vesuvius wiped Pompeii off the map almost two millennia ago, while the vast volcanic Campi Flegrei area near Naples last spewed lava, ashes and rocks in 1538. But the Campi Flegrei is not one to take lightly – the volcano’s eruption 30,000 years ago is reported to have contributed to the extinction of Neanderthal man.

It can seem less dangerous than it is because, instead of growing into a traditional mountain, the volcano has the shape of a gentle depression 7.5-8.5 miles (12-14km) across. A resurgence of activity in the early 1980s led to the evacuation of 40,000 inhabitants, but the volcano has been relatively quiet since then.

“We’re not saying there will be an eruption, we are saying that the conditions for an eruption are more favourable,” Christopher Kilburn from University College London told AFP.

The tens of thousands of small earthquakes that have taken place since the 1950s weakened the caldera, the basin at the top of the volcano.

And the report – published in Nature’s Communications Earth & Environment journal on Friday – found “parts of the volcano had been stretched nearly to breaking point”.

The quakes have been increasing in number since 2019, while the pressure below has been building. The coastal town of Pozzuoli has been lifted by nearly four metres (13ft) – roughly the height of a doubledecker bus – since the 1950s, it said. The tremors and ground uplift are cumulative, meaning volcanic activity does not need to intensify for an eruption to become more likely.

“An eventual eruption could be preceded by relatively weak signals, such as a smaller rate of ground uplift and fewer earthquakes,” the study’s authors said. They point to the eruption of the Rabaul caldera in Papua New Guinea in 1994, which was preceded by small earthquakes occurring at a 10th of the rate than had occurred during a crisis a decade before.

The probability of a big eruption occurring is “very low”, Carlino said. “What is more likely are small eruptions.”

And while the volcano is closer to rupture, that does not necessarily mean an eruption will take place, Kilburn said. Even if the crust cracks, “the magma needs to be pushing up at the right location for the eruption to occur”, he said.

The researchers used a model based on the physics of how rocks break and applied it in real time to the volcano, which is flat and mostly hidden – either under buildings or coastal waters.

They measured the tremors and ground movements and compared them with previous eruptions of other, similar volcanoes.

“We cannot say with certainty what will happen, what matters is being prepared for any eventuality,” Carlino said.

Five hundred thousand people live in what Italy’s civil protection agency has designated the red zone – the area at highest risk. Another 800,000 people live in the yellow zone.

Authorities have drawn up an evacuation plan, under which residents will be moved out using their own or public transport within three days. The risk level – green, yellow, orange and red – is reviewed monthly.

“The alert level in Pozzuoli is currently yellow,” council spokesperson Giordana Mobilio told AFP, adding that locals receive alerts for all tremors of a magnitude of 1.5 or greater.

quote:

"An eventual eruption could be preceded by relatively weak signals, such as a smaller rate of ground uplift and fewer earthquakes,"

quote:

Italian supervolcano may erupt after more than 500 years - study
Researchers emphasize that further investigation is needed to accurately predict the occurrence of an eruption.

The Campi Flegrei supervolcano in southern Italy has reportedly weakened, increasing the likelihood of an eruption, according to new research conducted by University College London (UCL) and Italy's National Research Insititute for Geophysics and Volcanology (INGV).

Using an innovative model that analyzes earthquake patterns and ground uplift, the peer-reviewed study, published in the journal Nature's Communications Earth & Environment, found that certain parts of the volcano have been stretched to the point of potential rupture. However, the researchers emphasize that further investigation is needed to accurately predict the occurrence of an eruption.

The Campi Flegrei volcano has exhibited signs of unrest for over 70 years, with periods of intensified activity in the 1950s, 70s and 80s, followed by a slower phase of unrest in the past decade.

During these periods, tens of thousands of small earthquakes have occurred and the coastal town of Pozzuoli has experienced an uplift of nearly 4 meters (13 feet), equivalent to the height of a double-decker bus.

The study employed a model developed at UCL to assess volcano fracturing. By analyzing earthquake patterns and ground uplift, the researchers concluded that certain sections of the volcano are nearing the breaking point.

Campi Flegrei volcano is moving closer to rupture, not guaranteeing an eruption
Professor Christopher Kilburn, lead author and UCL Earth sciences expert, explained that while the study confirms the Campi Flegrei volcano is moving closer to rupture, it does not guarantee an eruption.

"The rupture may open a crack through the crust, but the magma still needs to be pushing up at the right location for an eruption to occur," he explained. "This is the first time we have applied our model, which is based on the physics of how rocks break, in real-time to any volcano.

This study represents the first application of the model in real-time to an active volcano. Professor Kilburn highlighted the model's accuracy, as it correctly predicted the increasing number of small earthquakes associated with Campi Flegrei's unrest. Adjustments will now be made to improve estimates of the likelihood of new routes being formed for magma or gas to reach the surface.

Dr. Nicola Alessandro Pino from the Vesuvius Observatory, representing the INGV in Naples, emphasized the volcano's weakening state. Despite smaller stresses compared to the last major crisis 40 years ago, parts of the volcano are becoming more vulnerable to rupture.

Campi Flegrei is unique in that it does not resemble a typical volcano. Instead of forming a traditional mountain, it takes the shape of a gentle depression spanning 12-14 kilometers (7.5-8.5 miles), known as a caldera. This unique structure has led to the establishment of a community of 360,000 people on its surface.

Over the past decade, the ground beneath Pozzuoli has been gradually rising at a rate of approximately 10 centimeters (4 inches) per year. Additionally, a significant number of small earthquakes have been recorded since the mid-1980s, with April registering the highest monthly count of over 600.

These disturbances are attributed to the movement of fluids approximately 3 kilometers (2 miles) below the surface, possibly including molten rock (magma) and volcanic gas. The ongoing phase of unrest appears to be driven by magmatic gas seeping into rock fractures, permeating the 3-kilometer-thick crust.

The earthquakes result from faults slipping due to crustal stretching. Analysis of earthquake patterns from 2020 suggests that the rock is exhibiting inelastic behavior, breaking rather than bending.

Dr. Stefania Danesi from INGV Bologna highlighted the challenge of deciphering underground activities and the reliance on interpreting clues provided by the volcano, such as earthquakes and ground uplift.

The researchers emphasized that the unrest observed since the 1950s has cumulative effects. Consequently, an eruption may be preceded by weaker indicators, such as a reduced rate of ground uplift and fewer earthquakes.

The researchers stressed that an eruption is not inevitable. Dr. Stefano Carlino from the Vesuvius Observatory explained that, like other volcanoes that have remained dormant for generations, Campi Flegrei might establish a new pattern of gentle uplift and subsidence or return to a state of rest. Preparedness for all possible outcomes is crucial.

quote:

Op vrijdag 16 juni 2023 16:46 schreef MissButterflyy het volgende:
Toevallig nog geweest een paar dagen geleden en er wonen echt heel veel mensen in dat gebied. Mocht de vulkaan uitbarsten is dat een enorme ramp.

Er liggen schijnbaar 5 dorpen vlakbij waarvan 3 niet eens een rampenplan hebben gemaakt mocht het tot een uitbarsting komen.
Naples en omgeving is prachtig en de mensen zijn heel vriendelijk maar ook zeer chaotisch, veel zaken daar hebben ze niet op orde.

Laten we hopen dat de uitbarsting nog wat honderden of duizenden jaren op zich laat wachten.

quote:

Op vrijdag 16 juni 2023 16:55 schreef heywoodu het volgende:

[..]
Als iets als dit uitbarst vraag ik me af of een rampenplan voor een dorpje in de buurt überhaupt enige zin heeft

quote:

Op vrijdag 16 juni 2023 17:58 schreef MissButterflyy het volgende:

[..]
Uiteraard. Maar stel je voor: alles wijst erop dat die uitbarsting snel komt omdat een groot oppervlak grond omhoog komt. Moet je dan niet een plan van aanpak hebben?

quote:

Op vrijdag 16 juni 2023 18:11 schreef Netsplitter het volgende:
Eigenlijk precies hetzelfde als wat ik lees/hoor over Yellowstone.

quote:

The Campi Flegrei volcano in southern Italy is weakening and potentially erupting.

There are enormous calderas with a width of more than 5 km at one in ten historically active volcanoes. These volcanoes frequently experience several periods of instability over many years before erupting, depending on their forerunners’ additive impacts. As a result of the potential for structural changes in the crust, these episodes have the potential to sow discord and invalidate traditional eruption predictions.

Researchers from the National Research Institute for Geophysics and Volcanology (INGV) in Italy and the University of California, Los Angeles (UCL) have found that the Campi Flegrei volcano in southern Italy is deteriorating and more prone to erupting.

Volcanoes that reawaken after a long period of dormancy shatter the crust before magma can erupt. Repeatable seismicity fluctuations with ground movement precede rupture, tracing applied stress from local earthquakes. Since 2004, a rupturing sequence has developed at Italy’s Campi Flegrei caldera.

The volcano last erupted in 1538 and has been unrest-free for more than 70 years, with two-year increases in the 1950s, 1970s, and 1980s and a slower period in the past ten years. During these times, tens of thousands of minor earthquakes have occurred, and the coastal town of Pozzuoli has risen by almost 4 meters.

The study, published in Nature Communications Earth & Environment, used a fracturing volcano model created at UCL to evaluate earthquakes and ground uplift patterns and determined that portions of the volcano had been stretched nearly to breaking point.

Lead author Professor Christopher Kilburn (UCL Earth Sciences) said, “Our new study confirms that Campi Flegrei is moving closer to rupture. However, this does not guarantee an eruption. The breach may have opened a break in the crust, but magma must still be moving up in the appropriate place for an eruption.

The study is the first of its sort to forecast a rupture at an active volcano, marking a significant step forward in their goal of improving eruption forecasts worldwide.

They used the model for the first time in 2017. Campi Flegrei has behaved exactly as they predicted, with an increasing number of small earthquakes indicating pressure from below.

They will now have to revise our procedures for estimating the likelihood of new routes for magma or gas reaching the surface.

Dr. Nicola Alessandro Pino from the Vesuvius Observatory, representing the INGV in Naples, said, “Our results show that parts of the volcano are weakening. This means it might break even though the stresses pulling it apart are smaller than during the last crisis 40 years ago.”

Campi Flegrei is the nearest active volcano to London, with a mild depression 12-14 km across that explains why 360,000 people live on its roof.

The ground beneath Pozzuoli has been rising at around 10 cm (4 in) per year for the past decade. Persistent minor earthquakes have also been recorded for the first time since the mid-1980s. The flow of fluids around 3 km (2 miles) beneath the surface, some of which may be molten rock, magma, or natural volcanic gas, has created the disruption.

quote:

Op dinsdag 4 juli 2023 10:34 schreef Starhopper het volgende:
Hoe gevaarlijk is deze vulkaan? Wat gaan we merken als hij tot uitbarsting komt?

quote:

Op dinsdag 4 juli 2023 10:46 schreef Hatseflats22 het volgende:

[..]
De hele aarde krijgt dan de kleur van dit forum

quote:

Op dinsdag 4 juli 2023 10:34 schreef Starhopper het volgende:
Hoe gevaarlijk is deze vulkaan? Wat gaan we merken als hij tot uitbarsting komt?

quote:

Op dinsdag 4 juli 2023 10:48 schreef Frutsel het volgende:

[..]
Afhankelijk van het soort uitbarsting en de duur ervan... dit soort vulkanen zijn in staat om kleine uitbarstingen te produceren die op kleine schaal en regionaal voor problemen kan zorgen. Zoals omleiding vliegverkeer, kleine evacuaties

Tevens kunnen de uitbarstingen groter zijn waarbij je moet denken aan een grotere straal rondom het eruptie punt waar zich magma/lava naar toe verplaatst, zware asval in de regio, weken lang vliegverkeer, honderdduizenden evacuees

Maar worst-case scenario is een complete uitbarsting die weken duurt waarbij de complete baai platgelegd wordt, miljoenen moeten verhuizen en dan kom je op een situatie dat er zoveel as in de lucht kan komen dat de zon wordt geblockt en mogelijk een jaar zonder-zomer / geen daglicht / geen fotosynthese meer / planten dood etc etc
Wereldwijde afkoeling/ramp.

Maar goed, laatst genoemde lijkt minst waarschijnlijke maar supervulkanen kunnen dat veroorzaken. Naar verluidt zijn er 7 op aarde waar dit er één van is en Yellowstone de bekendste is.
Laatste eruptie van een supervulkaan was Toba zo'n 70000 jaar geleden.