Hurricane Season 2010 - Things are about to change...

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Op dinsdag 1 juni 2010 18:48 schreef woid het volgende:

[..]

dan zou Agatha Alex gaan heten...

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Agatha deaths rise to 180 in Central America
By JUAN CARLOS LLORCA (AP) – 5 hours ago

GUATEMALA CITY — Villagers used hoes and pick axes on Tuesday to hunt for victims of landslides that have killed at least 180 people in Central America while officials in Guatemala's capital tried to cope with a vast sinkhole that swallowed a clothing factory.

Thousands remained homeless and dozens still missing following the season's first tropical storm. Rescue crews struggled to reach isolated communities to distribute food and water.

"This is a total tragedy," said Jose Vicente Samayoa, president of a neighborhood group in Amatitlan, a flooded town south of Guatemala's capital.

Officials in Guatemala reported 152 dead but said 100 people were still missing. In the department of Chimaltenango — a province west of Guatemala City — landslides buried rural Indian communities and killed at least 60 people.

Curious onlookers also gathered at a massive and almost perfectly circular sinkhole that swallowed an entire intersection in Guatemala City over the weekend, gulping down a clothing factory but causing no deaths or injuries.

Authorities estimate the hole is 66 feet (20 meters) wide and nearly 100 feet (30 meters) deep, but they are still investigating what caused it.

Nearly 125,000 people were evacuated in Guatemala and thousands more fled their homes in neighboring Honduras, where officials raised the death toll rose to 18 late Tuesday.

Most schools also resumed classes on Tuesday in Honduras.

In El Salvador, 11,000 people were evacuated. The death toll rose to 10 and two others were missing, President Mauricio Funes said Monday night.

About 95 percent of the country's roads were affected by landslides, but most remained open, Transportation Minister Gerson Martinez said. He said 179 bridges had been wrecked.

Agatha made landfall near the Guatemala-Mexico border on Saturday with tropical storm winds of up to 45 mph (75 kph). It dissipated the following day over the mountains of western Guatemala.

The rising death toll is reminding nervous residents of Hurricane Mitch, which hovered over Central America for days in 1998, causing flooding and mudslides that killed nearly 11,000 people and left more than 8,000 missing and unaccounted for.

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Op dinsdag 8 juni 2010 17:59 schreef kahaarin het volgende:
Olielek Golf van Mexico bijna onder controle

Hopelijk lukt het nu dan, iig 1 zorg minder.

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In the midst of cleaning up after Tropical Cyclone Phet, Oman and Pakistan could be in the line of fire as another tropical system begins to develop.

According to AccuWeather.com meteorologists, models continue to suggest a tropical cyclone will develop in the Arabian Sea this weekend.

Heavy rain will continue across southwestern India over the next few days. Rainfall of 2-4 inches can be expected through the end of the day on Friday.

Meteorologists foresee this system moving off the shore over the open water of the Arabian Sea on Saturday.

This most recent tropical development could be the fourth named system of the tropical season in the Indian Ocean.

Tropical Cyclone Phet made landfall over Oman, northwest India and southern Pakistan last week, causing several deaths and many injuries and resulted in thousands becoming displaced after flooding and mudslides.


The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) provided rainfall estimates of Tropical Cyclone Phet from its Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission satellite (TRMM) between May 31 and June 6.

TRMM reported rainfall totals of 23.6 inches as Phet traveled over the Arabian Sea. The highest reported totals out of northeastern Oman reached 17.7 inches and between 5.9 and 11.8 inches in Pakistan as Phet made landfall.

Tropical cyclones in the Indian Ocean and South Pacific are the equivalent to the naming of tropical systems as hurricanes in the Atlantic, and typhoons in the Western Pacific.

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Climatology argues against development of 92L, since only one named storm has ever formed between Africa and the Lesser Antilles Islands in the month of June--Tropical Storm Ana of 1979 (Figure 2). However, sea surface temperatures (SSTs) underneath 92L are an extremely high 28 - 30°C, which is warmer than the temperatures reached during the peak of hurricane season last year, in August - September. In fact, with summer not even here, and three more months of heating remaining until we reach peak SSTs in the Atlantic, ocean temperatures across the entire Caribbean and waters between Africa and the Lesser Antilles are about the same as they were during the peak week for water temperatures in 2009 (mid-September.) While 92L will cross over a 1°C cooler patch of water on Monday, the storm will encounter very warm SSTs of 28-29°C again by Tuesday.

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Op zondag 13 juni 2010 13:05 schreef SoldMayor het volgende:
Ziet er goed ik denk eerst storm van het jaar

En kan btw meteen een sterke worden

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The forecast for 92L
A major issue for 92L, like it is for most June disturbances, is wind shear. The subtropical jet stream has a branch flowing through the Caribbean and tropical Atlantic north of 10° N that is bringing 20 - 40 knots of wind shear to the region. Our disturbance is currently located at 7°N, well south of this band of high shear, and is only experiencing 5 - 15 knots of shear. This moderate amount of shear should allow for some steady development of 92L over the next few days as it tracks west-northwest at 10 - 15 mph. The National Hurricane Center is giving 92L a medium (30% chance) of developing into a tropical depression by Tuesday morning. Based on visible satellite imagery over the past few hours, I believe this forecast is not aggressive enough, and that 92L has a 50% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Tuesday morning. Another factor holding 92L back is its proximity to the Equator. I would give 92L higher chances of developing if it were not so close to the Equator. The system is organizing at about 7°N latitude, which is so close to the Equator that it cannot leverage the Earth's spin much to help it get spinning. It is quite unusual for a tropical depression to form south of 8°N latitude.

The farther south 92L stays, the better chance it has at survival. With the system's steady west-northwest movement this week, 92L should begin encountering hostile wind shear in excess of 30 knots by Thursday, which should be able to greatly weaken or entirely destroy the storm before it gets to the Lesser Antilles Islands. However, residents of the islands--particularly the northern Lesser Antilles--should follow the progress of 92L closely, and anticipate heavy rains and high winds moving through the islands by Saturday or Sunday next weekend. The GFDL and HWRF models are predicting that 92L will develop into a moderate strength tropical storm that will then be weakened or destroyed by the end of the week, before it reaches the islands. This looks like a reasonable forecast.

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Op zondag 13 juni 2010 22:04 schreef Frutsel het volgende:
volgens andere sites 30 tot 40% kans... en idd watertemperatuur zegt niet alles... kan zijn dat Alex toch nog even op zich laat wachten

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1. A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 1025 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST
OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS HAS CHANGED LITTLE DURING THE PAST SEVERAL
HOURS. HOWEVER...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
CONDUCIVE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE AS IT
MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH. THERE
REMAINS A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.