De beursvloer #99: Don't marry for money, borrowing is cheaper

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Time for Investor Vacations: Marc Faber

Published: Friday, 17 Jul 2009 | 4:24 AM ET

Investors should take a holiday from now on as the best part of the rally is over and now there are more chances that markets would go down, Marc Faber, author of the Gloom, Boom and Doom Report, told CNBC Friday.

"What I'm telling clients? I think the summer is shaping up nicely and to take a holiday essentially. Because I think the gravy is out. We had a huge rally March to June," Faber said.

"It looked a week ago as if the market would break down. When markets are about to break down and they don't then there's a counter-trend rally," he added.

The S&P 500 index might go as high as 970 or even 1020 but then it will turn down again, Faber predicted, adding that earnings figures must be studied thoroughly.

"We have to look very carefully at how these results were achieved because there's a lot of massaging of results right now," he said.

But for the long term investors should still favor stocks over bonds, according to Faber.

"I think a balanced portfolio of high quality shares like WPP [WPP-LN 419.50 2.75 (+0.66%)] and J&J [JNJ 59.25 0.29 (+0.49%) ]…you buy the blue chips and you go to sleep, in 10 years time for sure you have made some money," he said. "Better to be a shareholder of something than somebody owes you something."

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Ultimate Crisis Is Still Coming: Marc Faber
Published: Friday, 17 Jul 2009 | 3:51 AM ET

We haven't seen the last of the crisis despite all talk about green shoots, and the surge in markets was caused by nothing more than the excess liquidity coming from central banks, Marc Faber, author of the Gloom, Boom and Doom Report, told CNBC Friday.

"If you pump money into the system and you create large fiscal deficits, you create volatility," Faber said.

"We've seen an intermediate low in March, we'll rally for a year or so or maybe 18 months… the ultimate crisis will happen much later, and the ultimate crisis would clean the system," he added.

Asked when this would be, he said he could not forecast a precise timing: "it may be 5 years time, 10 years time, but that's not the last crisis."

There are two opposing views, those who believe deflation is the big danger, with asset prices and demand collapsing, and those who think the biggest risk is inflation and a weak dollar, Faber said.

"In general in a crisis such as we have today where there is a deficiency of demand and huge overcapacity under normal conditions you would have deflation… now comes in the government and creates these huge deficits," he added as an explanation for his belonging to the "inflationists" camp.

"Already you have money-printers Mr. Bernanke and Mervyn King… we have never had this experiment in the history of mankind, all governments throwing money at the system," Faber said.

One way of dealing with the crisis would be to fire half the government workers in the world, "because if you shift government activity to the private sector the economy becomes more dynamic," he said.

"It's a transition time that is maybe painful. Why does California have these problems? It's not that there are too many teachers in California but the education department is very bloated," Faber added.

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Op vrijdag 17 juli 2009 12:22 schreef pberends het volgende:

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http://www.moneycontrol.c(...)/40/newsvideo/406688

Uitstel van executie. AEX 100-150 punten in 2011, 2012, here we come. Maar eerst naar de 280

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Op vrijdag 17 juli 2009 13:00 schreef Lemans24 het volgende:

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Iemand gaat hier goed geld verdienen de komende jaren aan shorts...

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Op vrijdag 17 juli 2009 13:46 schreef pberends het volgende:

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Timing is zeer belangrijk. We kunnen best de 325 zien begin 2010, voordat we echt nieuwe lows gaan zien.

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In het worst case scenario, met een sterftecijfer van één op driehonderd, rekent de regering op 65.000 doden. De Britse regering vreest dat zeker zestig procent van de bevolking het virus zal oplopen, en dat de helft daarvan daadwerkelijk ziek zal worden.

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Op woensdag 15 juli 2009 21:30 schreef TeringHenkie het volgende:
Stijgen we niet gewoon ontzettend omdat er gruwelijk veel puts zijn geschreven rond de 265-270?

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Op vrijdag 17 juli 2009 14:21 schreef pberends het volgende:
65.000 H1N1-doden gevreesd in Engeland
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= economy down the drain.

Nee hoor, gewoon negeren die paupergriep! KOPEN!

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Op vrijdag 17 juli 2009 15:31 schreef pberends het volgende:
Wie nog "goedkoop" short wil gaan met een relatief laag risico moet dat nu tijdens expiratie doen.

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Op vrijdag 17 juli 2009 14:58 schreef Lemans24 het volgende:
KPN boven de 10

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Op vrijdag 17 juli 2009 15:35 schreef pberends het volgende:
KPN boven de 10, verkopen!!!!!!!!

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Op vrijdag 17 juli 2009 15:41 schreef Lemans24 het volgende:

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Na drie-en-halve maand nog gedaan ook!
Netto 82 euro winst, het is geen vetpot met KPN.