De Beursvloer #83: Schijthner praat de beurs omhoog

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Op zaterdag 25 april 2009 10:11 schreef henkway het volgende:

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dat is toch leuk, dus we kunnen nog omhoog kijken??

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Bears and bulls agree: The roller-coaster hasn't stopped

April 25, 2009 at 6:00 AM EDT

As global equities mainly extended their rally this week from the grim lows of early March, the bears remained utterly unimpressed. The bulls, meanwhile, were busy pawing through the latest entrails in search of any evidence to support their contention that the worst must surely be over.

Where both sides tend to agree is that regardless of the direction the market takes in the days ahead, the path is going to be strewn with increased volatility.

In one of his last missives before returning to his Bay Street roots next month, Merrill Lynch economist David Rosenberg reaffirmed his status as one of the more astute members of the bear clan. Just because a market rally looks as if it may have some legs is no reason to abandon one's fundamental views.

Recalling one of the rules laid down many years ago by Bob Farrell, Merrill's legendary former chief market strategist, Mr. Rosenberg labelled the rally at best a “reflexive rebound” of the sort “that occurs between the down legs of the secular bear market.”

Such rebounds, fuelled by the return of vast amounts of cash gathering little more than dust on the sidelines, tend to run higher than a typical bear market bounce – a gain of 25 to 50 per cent, versus 10 to 20 per cent. They also last longer – four to eight months, compared with four to eight weeks.

But the bulls are having none of it. They prefer the rosier outlook of such high-profile converts to their cause as famed investor Marc Faber, who used to proudly wear the moniker Dr. Doom. Now, he sees a long climb ahead for equities, buoyed by all that government largesse.

They can even make a gloomy earnings season look mildly positive.

Hey, Microsoft's profit didn't fall as much as the experts thought. Ford is burning through less of its cash, the big U.S. banks are looking less shaky, and a rash of other major companies have managed to match or slightly exceed profit projections.

Never mind that the bar was set really low to begin with, or that heavy cost cutting is all that enabled the IBMs to reach their targets.

But not even the most bullish of the positivists can dismiss the fact that serious market volatility is likely to be refuelled by the imminent arrival of several potentially market-altering developments.

These include the release next week of key U.S. economic gauges such as the latest gross domestic product and non-farm payroll numbers. Then there's the critical survival deadline faced by Chrysler.

And we'll also soon learn how the 19 U.S. banks deemed too important to fail by the Washington crowd fared on their government stress tests. (We have visions of several overfed bankers collapsing from cardiac arrest on their stationary bicycles.)

One closely followed measure of volatility is the Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index, better known as the VIX.

This important gauge of investor worry typically drops when the stock market is on the upswing.

“I think the VIX is going to rise sharply again,” says Jeff Augen, an expert New York options trader who has written three books on the subject and teaches other financial pros the nuances of his sophisticated craft.

“We've had a bear market rally that reduced the VIX, but I think that that's temporary.”

We asked Mr. Augen to be our volatility guide, because no one loves a serious bout of the stuff more than options traders, who live for such conditions. They don't usually care whether a market heads up or down. How it moves is what matters.

One day during the meltdown last fall, the VIX shot up to a midday record of close to 90. (Previous record highs were in the 50s in 2001 and 1997; in good times, the level fell to the high teens.)

But it has been below 40 since the beginning of this year and stood yesterday at just under 37, which is back to the levels of last September.

“Will we get another spike that high? I personally think that that's very likely,” says Mr. Augen, who began his career as a molecular biologist.

His latest options tome is a bit of light reading called Trading Options at Expiration: Strategies and Models for Winning the Endgame (FT Press).

The fear spike could happen at any time in response to a dreadful GDP number, awful job stats or worse-than-expected earnings.

“We could get any one of a number of pieces of very negative news which would create the next leg down [in the market].”

Another of Bob Farrell's maxims is that bull markets are more fun than bear markets. Unless, that is, you're an options trader.

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Op zaterdag 25 april 2009 16:19 schreef Dinosaur_Sr het volgende:

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ach, als het niet uitkomt kan ie nog altijd het PPT de schuld geven.

waar zouden goeroes zijn zonder het PPT?

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Stocks Rally But Dow's Win Streak Dies

Friday, April 24, 2009

Buoyed by a round of mostly positive economic and earnings reports, the markets closed out the week with a buying binge on Friday but the gains failed to extend the Dow’s six-week win streak.

Today's Markets

The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 119.23 points, or 1.50%, to 8076.29, the S&P 500 added 14.31 points, or 1.68%, to 866.23 and the Nasdaq Composite gained 42.08 points, or 2.55%, to 1694.29. The consumer-friendly FOX 50 picked up 9.64 points, or 1.53%, to 638.27.

While Friday’s rally wasn’t enough to push the Dow or S&P 500 into the green for the week, the Nasdaq Composite finished positive for the seventh-straight week, the longest such streak since December 2005.

The markets traded in positive territory for nearly the entire day as the bulls were lifted by better-than-expected housing and manufacturing reports and several positive earnings reports, especially Ford’s (F: 4.9801, 0.5083, 11.37%). Energy stocks were also boosted by a 3.7% rally for crude, which ended at two-week highs.

“The fact this was the busiest earnings week of the season and the market maintained stayed strong is pretty impressive for the bulls,” said Michael James, senior equity trader at Wedbush Morgan Securities. “Right now it’s clearly a case of the glass being more than half full.”

NYSE trader Doreen Mogavero echoed that sentiment, telling FOX Business, “I think the sentiment is clearly very bullish in the past week or so, quite different from the previous weeks. I’m not sure if that scared me or not. I think it does because I’m still not ready to commit."

Underscoring the bullish sentiment, the markets mostly yawned at the release of new details about the government's bank "stress tests” and more signs that Chrysler LLC is headed toward bankruptcy, as soon as next week.

Even though the Dow ended with minor losses this week, the benchmark index erased most of Monday’s 290-point plunge and is still up almost 24% since hitting 12-year lows in early March. The markets have been lifted in recent weeks by signs the 17-month recession may have hit a bottom and oversold conditions

“A sideways market is very bullish. Being able to hold onto a move like this is definitely a positive for the bulls,” said Frank Davis, director of sales and trading at LEK Securities.

More than half of the Dow's 30 components closed higher on Friday, led by double-digit percentage gains for American Express (AXP: 25.19, 4.19, 19.95%) and Microsoft (MSFT: 20.91, 1.99, 10.52%), each of which reported results late Thursday. On the other hand, defensive stocks like Wal-Mart (WMT: 47.86, -1.03, -2.11%) and McDonald's (MCD: 54.27, -1.02, -1.84%) posted the index's largest percentage losses.

The Nasdaq Composite mounted even stronger gains than its sister indexes as tech giants such as Research in Motion (RIMM: 68.76, 0.49, 0.72%) rallied on the positive earnings from Microsoft and Amazon.com (AMZN: 84.84, 4.23, 5.25%).

"The bear market rally has begun pulling in doubters. I am still skeptical -- though I must admit -- it has been a great trade from Dow 6600," Peter Kenny, managing director of Knight Capital Markets, wrote in a note.

Stress-Free Markets

The markets had little reaction to new details released by the Federal Reserve about the government's bank "stress tests," which were administered to see how much capital cushion banks need in case the recession deepens. While the Fed didn't say how many or which banks need more cash, it did release the methodology it used to conduct the stress tests, including GDP tumbling as much as 3.3% in 2009.

Wall Street's optimistic view on things was most evident on the earnings front as the markets handsomely rewarded companies like Ford, American Express and Amazon.com that beat expectations. But blue-chip companies such as Honeywell (HON: 31.44, -0.94, -2.9%) and 3M (MMM: 57, 2.842, 5.25%) that missed the Street weren't really penalized and failed to take down the broader markets.

Ford provided Wall Street with a rare dose of positive auto news as the car maker said it lost 75 cents per share in the first quarter, topping expectations. The auto maker said it doesn't need a government bailout and could break even in 2011 as its cash burn slowed to $3.7 billion and it still has $21.3 billion in cash.

Energy stocks like Hess (HES: 56.12, 3.454, 6.56%) and ConocoPhillips (COP: 41.03, 1.05, 2.63%) rallied on Friday as crude oil closed at a two-week high thanks to a weaker dollar and the stock market rally. Crude settled up $1.93 per barrel, or 3.89%, at $51.55.

Data Dump

Wall Street responded positively to a pair of better-than-expected government reports Friday that bolstered the bulls' case for an economic recovery coming sooner rather than later.

The Commerce Department said March durable goods orders fell by 0.8%, the seventh decline in the past eight months but much better than economists had forecasted.

The government also said new home sales tumbled by 0.6% in March to a higher-than-expected annual rate of 356,000 units. The report also upwardly revised February's data to show a 8.2% jump in sales in February, nearly twice as much as previously reported.

Corporate Movers

Chrysler LLC is said to be readying a bankruptcy filing as soon as next week, whether or not it reaches a deal with lenders or an alliance pact with Italian auto maker Fiat. At the same time, sources tell FOX Business Chrysler is near a deal with the Canadian Auto Workers union, a potential big step in the auto maker's restructuring efforts, bankruptcy or not.

Citigroup (C: 3.17, -0.03, -0.94%) CEO Vikram Pandit could be removed by U.S. regulators seeking to take as strong a stand on banks as they did with General Motors (GM: 1.68, 0.0583, 3.59%), the New York Post reported. Citi finance director Ned Kelly, who has been mentioned as a possible replacement for Pandit, said such a move would be “dramatically destabilizing both for Citi and the system.”

3M (MMM: 57, 2.842, 5.25%) suffered a worse-than-expected 48% plunge in first-quarter profit as sales tumbled 21.3% to $5.1 billion as customers cut inventory amid falling demand. The bellwether manufacturer also cut its fill-year view. However, execs told analysts they see a bottom to the recession at the end of the second quarter or beginning of the third quarter.

Amazon.com (AMZN: 84.84, 4.23, 5.25%) rose sharply a day after the online retailer easily beat the Street with a quarterly profit of 41 cents per share. However, Amazon.com sees weaker-than-expected results for the second quarter.

Honeywell (HON: 31.44, -0.94, -2.9%) suffered a 38% decline in first-quarter profit and cut its 2009 earnings outlook due to the weak economy. The industrial giant said it now sees 2009 profit tumbling up to 24% from last year.

American Express (AXP: 25.19, 4.19, 19.95%) saw its shares jump a day after reporting stronger-than-expected quarterly results and saying it intends to pay back its TARP funds.

Microsoft (MSFT: 20.91, 1.99, 10.52%) matched analysts' estimates by reporting a profit of 39 cents a share but the software titan cut its 2009 view.

Xerox (XRX: 5.94, 0.19, 3.3%) turned a first-quarter profit of 5 cents per share even as revenue tumbled 18% to $3.55 billion. However, the company cut its 2009 outlook below the Street’s view.

Schlumberger (SLB: 49.56, 2.91, 6.24%) disclosed a 28% decline in first-quarter profit but the earnings exceeded analysts’ expectations by a nickel. The world’s largest oilfield services company said it doesn’t see any “significant recovery” in North American gas drilling before 2010.

Global Markets

In London, the FTSE 100 rose 3.43% to 4155.99 while France's CAC 40 gained 3.13% to 3102.85 and Germany's DAX gained 3% to 4674.32.

In Asia, Japan's Nikkei 225 fell 1.57% to 8707.99 while Hong Kong's Hang Seng gained 0.29% to 15258.85. China's Shanghai Composite fell 0.62% to 2448.60.

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Op zaterdag 25 april 2009 20:35 schreef SeLang het volgende:
Email uit den ouden doosch.
Deze kwam ik net tegen:
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Call AEX 1100

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Op zaterdag 25 april 2009 20:39 schreef SeLang het volgende:

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Begin 1999.
Krijg ik aandelen ING aangelapt op 55 gulden
en Philips op 70 gulden

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Op zaterdag 25 april 2009 20:42 schreef SeLang het volgende:

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Nee, dat is een erfenis uit China (2000)