De Beursvloer #81: Euronext plat. Duimen draaien dus!

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Global Stocks Rally May Falter, State Street Says (Update1)

April 20 (Bloomberg) -- A rally in global stocks is likely to falter as a prolonged recession dents corporate earnings, according to State Street Global Advisors Inc.

The MSCI AC World Index has surged 27 percent since its March 9 low after lenders from JPMorgan Chase & Co. to Bank of America Corp. said they made money at the start of 2009 and the U.S. government unveiled plans to buy as much as $1 trillion in toxic assets from financial firms. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index advance in the past six weeks is the steepest since 1938.

“We’re likely to see a pullback in stock markets as earnings disappoint,” said George Hoguet, global investment strategist at Boston-based State Street Global Advisors, which oversees $1.4 trillion. “We are undergoing a severe shock and the global economy will take several quarters to get back to trend growth.”

Profits at S&P 500 companies dropped for six straight quarters through December and are forecast to decline until September. The world economy will contract 1.7 percent this year, the World Bank said last month, while the International Monetary Fund said April 16 the “severe” global recession has “worrisome parallels” to the Great Depression.

“It’s hard for global equities to sustain a rally absent stabilization in the U.S.,” Hoguet, who is also a senior portfolio manager at State Street Global, said in an April 18 interview in Shanghai.

Mark Jolley, strategist at MainFirst Securities Hong Kong Ltd., shares the view that equities are set for a correction.

Consolidation Overdue

“Six weeks of consistent gains is typically a healthy medium-term signal for any equity market but is also typically indicative of a market overdue for some consolidation,” Jolley wrote in a report published today.

The S&P 500 advanced 29 percent to 869.60 through April 17 since hitting a 12-year low on March 9. More than $12 trillion in government spending to fix the financial system and revive the economy pushed banks up 83 percent since March 6, paring the S&P 500’s 2009 decline to 3.7 percent from as much as 25 percent.

Investors like billionaire Kenneth Fisher and Marc Faber say those gains will continue. Fisher predicted last week that the S&P 500 will rally as much as 70 percent above its March lows, as stocks were cheap compared with long-term interest rates.

Faber, who publishes the Gloom, Boom and Doom report, said last week government spending will boost bank profits, lifting the U.S. stock gauge to 1,000 in the next three months.

Emerging Markets

S&P 500 futures fell 0.7 percent to 860.4 as of 1:04 p.m. in Tokyo, while the MSCI Asia Pacific Index slipped 0.2 percent.

State Street added to its “overweight” on emerging market stocks a month ago, said Hoguet. Banks in emerging markets face fewer uncertainties and potential write-offs on asset values than financial companies in developed economies, he said.

The Boston-based firm, the world’s largest money-manager for institutions, is “overweight” Russia, Turkey, Israel and Brazil among emerging markets, and “underweight” China, where first-quarter gross domestic product grew at the slowest pace in almost a decade, Hoguet said.

The Shanghai Composite Index has rallied 38 percent this year through last week, trailing only Peru among 89 stock gauges tracked by Bloomberg.

“I’d be cautious on the A-share market, which has seen a sustained run,” said Hoguet, referring to China’s local- currency stocks. “For China’s rally to continue, we need to see improving macroeconomic data coming not just out of China, but a slowdown in the rate of decline in the U.S.”

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Op maandag 20 april 2009 10:25 schreef Lemans24 het volgende:
Vandaag is groen!
Heineken en KPN in de plus.

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Op maandag 20 april 2009 10:22 schreef lammegiraf het volgende:
jemig...de sprintertjes raken we nu nog niet kwijt blijkbaar

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Op maandag 20 april 2009 10:28 schreef sitting_elfling het volgende:

[..]

klopt, sprinters raak ik niet kwijt maar mn' portefeuille stijgt wel mee

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Citigroup Credit Losses Rising at ‘Rapid Rate,’ Goldman Says

April 20 (Bloomberg) -- Citigroup Inc.’s credit losses are growing at a “rapid rate,” undermining Chief Executive Officer Vikram Pandit’s efforts to stabilize the U.S. bank, according to Goldman Sachs Group Inc.

While Citigroup posted first-quarter net income of $1.6 billion last week, the New York-based bank suffered an “underlying” loss of 38 cents a share, Richard Ramsden, a Goldman Sachs analyst, wrote in a research note dated yesterday. He repeated a “sell” rating on the stock.

Citigroup, which received $45 billion in government aid, ended a five-quarter losing streak on trading gains and an accounting benefit for companies in distress. The bank, which cut compensation costs and took fewer writedowns, still reported higher delinquencies on home and credit-card loans.

The results “included several one-time items which muddied the waters,” Ramsden wrote in the note. “The key question mark in our mind remains what Citi’s earnings power will be on the other side of the crisis.”

Ramsden halved his estimate for Citigroup’s 2009 loss to 25 cents per share, while keeping unchanged his forecast for 20 cents net income per share for 2010. He also introduced an estimate of 40 cents per share profit for 2011.

The analyst kept a 12-month price target for the stock of $1.50. Citigroup’s shares fell 36 cents, or 9 percent, to $3.65 on April 17, the day it announced first-quarter earnings. The decline brought the stock’s loss this year to 46 percent.

Fixed-Income Boom

Fourteen of 18 analysts covering Citigroup rate the stock the equivalent of a “sell” or a “hold,” according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The bank, once the world’s largest financial-services company by market value, now ranks as No. 70, Bloomberg data shows.

Citigroup had $4.69 billion of bond trading revenue in the quarter, as it benefited along with Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan Chase & Co. from the failure of Wall Street competitors and the government-led rescue of the financial system. Sales of U.S. corporate bonds surged to $438 billion this year, up more than 50 percent from a year earlier, according to Bloomberg data.

The fixed-income bonanza, along with wider net interest margins and gains from accounting changes, masked declines in credit-card and consumer banking revenue, and soaring costs to cover bad loans at its credit card unit.

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Op maandag 20 april 2009 10:47 schreef superworm het volgende:
Exxon Mobil even groot als België

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Op maandag 20 april 2009 10:49 schreef pberends het volgende:
Belangrijke mededeling: Aandelenhandel NYSE Euronext beurzen om 10.45 uur hervat en handel warrants [Sprinters etc] wordt om 10:50 uur hervat

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MARKET COMMENT: AEX verliest 2% na winstnemingen
20-04-2009 10:49:00

AMSTERDAM (Dow Jones)--De AEX doet maandag in de loop van de ochtend een stevige stap terug met een verlies van 2%, "vooral door winstnemingen", aldus handelaar Cees Smit van Today's Beheer. Hij wijst op de flinke stijging van afgelopen vrijdag, die volgens hem mede werd ingegeven door de optie-expiratie. "Relatief veel partijen zaten kennelijk toch short en dat zorgde voor koopdruk", aldus Smit. Hij verwacht dat de index in de loop van de dag nog verder onder druk komt te staan. "We hebben met de AEX, maar ook met de S&P 500 een stijgingsperiode van circa 6 weken achter de rug. De rek lijkt er aan de bovenkant met deze beweging voorlopig wel even uit", aldus Smit. Vanmiddag om 16.00 uur worden in de VS, waar deze week een enorme reeks bedrijven met cijfers naar buiten komt, de leading indicators over maart van het onderzoeksbureau The Conference Board bekendgemaakt. Hiervoor wordt een daling met 0,1% verwacht tegen een afname met 0,4% een maand eerder. De AEX noteert maandag rond 10.45 uur 2% lager op 238,86 punten. (ANS)