De Beursvloer #77: Waar de mark to fantasy regels geldden

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Op vrijdag 10 april 2009 16:35 schreef SeLang het volgende:
Dit was trouwens die foto die SE bedoelde van na de crash.
Check de afdruk van de valhelm op m'n voorhoofd
Ik wil niet weten hoe deze foto eruit had gezien zonder die helm (waarschijnlijk een schedel met een gat erin ofzo)

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Punisher: War Zone - "Meet Jigsaw" Featurette *Spoiler-Free Version*

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Op vrijdag 10 april 2009 16:49 schreef SeLang het volgende:
Helm

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Op vrijdag 10 april 2009 16:35 schreef SeLang het volgende:
Dit was trouwens die foto die SE bedoelde van na de crash.
Check de afdruk van de valhelm op m'n voorhoofd
Ik wil niet weten hoe deze foto eruit had gezien zonder die helm (waarschijnlijk een schedel met een gat erin ofzo)

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Op vrijdag 10 april 2009 16:51 schreef Lemmeb het volgende:

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Ik ben ruim een jaar geleden ook heel hard van m'n fiets gelazerd. Schouderblad in tweeën.

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Op vrijdag 10 april 2009 17:04 schreef Llotyhy het volgende:
Klinkt misschien heel raar, maar ik krijg helemaal zin om mijn racefiets te pakken van jullie..

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Op vrijdag 10 april 2009 16:54 schreef SeLang het volgende:

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Piccas

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Op vrijdag 10 april 2009 17:05 schreef SeLang het volgende:

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Deel van één van mijn favoriete zondagmiddag rondjes in Taiwan

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Op vrijdag 10 april 2009 17:22 schreef capricia het volgende:

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De afdeling lijkt mij minstens even heftig als de klim!
Ik heb in Frankrijk wel eens de alpe d'huez beklommen...toen ik een tijdje niet rookte...zou het nou niet meer kunnen...want ik rook weer!
Maar vond de afdaling enger dan de klim!

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Op vrijdag 10 april 2009 17:29 schreef SeLang het volgende:

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Ik klom vanaf de andere kant, dat was iets minder steil, en daalde dan hier af. Dat was wel erg tof en uiteindelijk kwam je dan ook nog in een leuk plaatsje uit. Ik daal wel af als een mietjuh (heel voorzichtig)

Btw: waar blijft die picca nou

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Op vrijdag 10 april 2009 17:30 schreef capricia het volgende:

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Ik klik op jouw picca's en...noppes...das een terleurstelling!

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Op vrijdag 10 april 2009 17:31 schreef Lemmeb het volgende:

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Hij heeft hierboven toch een picca van zichzelf gepost?

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Op vrijdag 10 april 2009 17:33 schreef capricia het volgende:

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Als hij/zij even aanwijst welke vrouw hij/zij is...is het okay, wat mij betreft...maar wellicht dat ik begrijp dat hij/zij dat niet post...

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Op vrijdag 10 april 2009 17:33 schreef capricia het volgende:

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Als hij/zij even aanwijst welke vrouw hij/zij is...is het okay, wat mij betreft...maar wellicht dat ik begrijp dat hij/zij dat niet post...

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Op vrijdag 10 april 2009 17:34 schreef Lemmeb het volgende:

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Daar weer ver boven, schat. Hoeveel wijn heb je eigenlijk al op?

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Op vrijdag 10 april 2009 17:34 schreef Lemmeb het volgende:

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Daar weer ver boven, schat. Hoeveel wijn heb je eigenlijk al op?

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Op vrijdag 10 april 2009 17:48 schreef sitting_elfling het volgende:

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Idd, capricia is al ver heen haha. En sowieso heeft SeLang wel vaker foto's gepost door de jaren heen.

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Op vrijdag 10 april 2009 17:59 schreef SeLang het volgende:
Zeg capricia...
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Op vrijdag 10 april 2009 16:35 schreef SeLang het volgende:
Dit was trouwens die foto die SE bedoelde van na de crash.
Check de afdruk van de valhelm op m'n voorhoofd
Ik wil niet weten hoe deze foto eruit had gezien zonder die helm (waarschijnlijk een schedel met een gat erin ofzo)

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Op vrijdag 10 april 2009 18:09 schreef capricia het volgende:

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Hier wat foto's van mij, niet geheel herkenbaar, maar ik ben het echt!
mijn grootste hobbie airsoft..!

**incognito en gecamoufleerd**

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Op vrijdag 10 april 2009 18:12 schreef Alistair het volgende:

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Duidelijker kon eigenlijk niet

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Op vrijdag 10 april 2009 18:12 schreef Alistair het volgende:

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Duidelijker kon eigenlijk niet

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Op vrijdag 10 april 2009 18:19 schreef sitting_elfling het volgende:

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Ach als je d'r wil zien zul je op de AEX meeting moeten wachten, daar worden vast wel shots gemaakt van alles en iedereen.

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Op vrijdag 10 april 2009 18:26 schreef SeLang het volgende:

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En hier gepost

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Op zaterdag 11 april 2009 12:53 schreef pberends het volgende:
http://inflation.us/charts.html

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Dow Jones Index
Adjusted for real inflation, the Dow Jones Index has actually lost much of its value since 1963.

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A 'Rebubble' Attempt

By Bill Bonner
Buenos Aires, Argentina

The rally is on! The Dow rose another 246 points yesterday.

Enjoy it while it lasts...but keep those trailing stops tight.

The "End of the Rally is Nigh," says Barron's.

Our old friend, Marc Faber, says he expects a 10% drop in the stock market before the rally resumes.

Maybe. This rally is going to end sometime. But it probably has a ways to go. There are still a lot of suckers who haven't been drawn in.

Another old friend, Rick Ackerman, thinks the problem with this rally is capitulation...or rather, the lack of it. There's been no capitulation, says he. And you can't have a real bottom without it. No capitulation, no bottom.

The news from the economy is bad and getting worse.

Credit card debt has just taken its biggest plunge in 32 years...maybe ever. Credit card balances fell 9.7% in February. And the number of open credit card accounts is going down too.

What happens when people can't pay down their loans?

"Mortgage delinquencies soar in the US," says a Reuters article. Remember, delinquencies are the beginning of the process. Then come foreclosures and auctions - all eventually driving housing prices down further.

And when property prices fall, so does the collateral behind the banks' and other financial institutions' assets. So, their troubles aren't over. The worst is still ahead of us, not behind us.

But despite the bad economic outlook, investors think the worst is past for the stock market. Markets look ahead, they say, beyond the immediate economic forecast. True, but they have an adorable habit of seeing only what they want to see.

"In January 2008, when the S&Ps were in the early stages of what was to become a devastating collapse," explains Rick Ackerman, "domestic equity mutual funds were worth about $6.5 trillion. Lo, a little more than a year later, in February 2009, we see that the value of these funds had fallen by about 48%, to $3.4 trillion. But guess what: Over that time, net redemptions totaled only 2%, or about $100 billion! What that means, explicitly, is that mutual fund investors have stuck with this bear market throughout the decline."

Investors didn't give up on stocks - despite the huge decline in stock market prices. What that means is that there's still a lot of selling to be done.

"This bear market will end," he continues, "like every other bear market in history, with a wholesale dumping of stocks at prices that will make current values seem exorbitant in comparison."

That's why you use trailing stops. You want to be sure that when the selling begins your stocks get sold first - long before most investors finally capitulate.

More news on how to play this bear market from Addison and The 5:

"If you're shorting stocks, this might be of use," writes Addison Wiggin. "Now that the easy targets are long gone (big banks, homebuilders, AIG) and the bear market rally is in full swing, short sellers are setting their sites on some more diverse organizations."



"Hmmm... pretty all over the board, eh?" Addison notes. "There's a mobile tech biz, several real estate players, home healthcare, a bank and a popular chain of sandwich shops. What's the connection?"

"Most of the stocks on this list," answers our resident short seller Dan Amoss, "are characterized by at least one of these three facets: Shorting the stock is a current fad, the company is using 'creative" accounting methods that traders think is fraudulent, or the company is a high risk for insolvency.

"Regardless, bulls beware... when you see short interest that high (as a % of outstanding shares), you rarely see sustainable short squeezes."

That's good news for Dan's Strategic Short Report readers. Late last month they amassed a new short position in one of the stocks listed above... one that already paid them out 57% in 2008. Given the latest market rally, this short is all the more attractive today. To find out which of these stocks Dan recommends you bet against, along with the rest of his stellar short side advice, check out Strategic Short Report, here.

And back to Bill with more thoughts:

It's amazing how much credibility some people have. Seems almost infinite. No matter how bad their advice...or how little they understand...people still ask their opinions.

Or, to put it another way...it's amazing what most people will believe.

You'd think - after $50 trillion in losses - that people would be careful whom they listened to. Who would take Alan Greenspan's thoughts seriously, for example? Yet, the newspapers still report his remarks with a straight face.

And what about all the economists who claimed that since the "U.S. has the world's most flexible, dynamic economy" you couldn't go wrong buying U.S. stocks? And what about the market timers who urged investors to buy "bargains" when the Dow was only 10% below its peak? And how about the regulators - such as Tim Geithner - who completely missed the biggest Ponzi scheme of all time, taking place right under their noses? And the economists who thought derivative debt made the financial world safer by "distributing risk more widely?" And those, such as Hank Paulson, who thought the sub-prime crisis was "contained" at $100 billion in losses? (Current cost of the bailouts - $12.8 TRILLION!)

As our friend Nicholas Taleb says, it's as if these guys had wrecked a school bus - while they were driving drunk.

But instead of putting them in jail - they're given a new school bus to drive!

Kevin Phillips, author of Bad Money: Reckless Finance, Failed Politics, and the Global Crisis of American Capitalism warned of a the pending explosion of a 25-year "multibubble."

The bubbles began in the 1980s, he says, when the financial sector accounted for 10 percent to 12 percent of the U.S. economy had grew to an "arguably crippling" 20 percent to 21 percent of GDP by the middle of this decade.

Who's to blame? Henry Paulson, he says...and Ben Bernanke...and Alan Greenspan.

The Reuters report: "Phillips calls Paulson a Wall Street insider who was looking out for his own, and Bernanke an academic misguidedly trying to refight the 1930s Great Depression. Together they formed the wrong team at the wrong time whose ad hoc approach threw away hundreds of billions of dollars and more than doubled the Fed's balance sheet, he says.

"What you're seeing Bernanke do is he's trying to create a bailout reflationary bubble, which he can't describe as a bubble, just as Greenspan couldn't describe the housing mortgage bubble as a bubble. What we're seeing by Bernanke is a covert attempt to rebubble," Phillips told Reuters.

Meanwhile, Nouriel Roubini - who's been mostly right about the crisis - says that [Jim] "Cramer is a buffoon."

"He was one of those who called six times in a row for this bear market rally to be a bull market rally and he got it wrong. And after all this mess and Jon Stewart he should just shut up because he has no shame...He's not a credible analyst. Every time it was a bear market rally he said it was the beginning of a bull and he got it wrong."

Roubini warned two years ago that the United States faced its worse recession in four decades. He points out that the current rally on Wall Street merely follows the pattern of other major downturns.

"Once people get the reality check than it's going to get ugly again," he says.

Finally, as promised in yesterday's issue: What can we learn from Argentina?

In the '30s, Argentina suffered along with the rest of the world. Until then, it was roughly as rich as Europe and rivaled America in some ways.

"As rich as an Argentine," was an expression in England. Marrying one's daughter to an Argentine planter was the dream of many down-at-the- heels English aristocrat.

But something went very wrong on the pampas. Instead of Franklin Roosevelt's New Deal, the Argentine's got a raw deal from Juan Peron. Both programs were frauds. Both made things worse. But Peron's program stuck. Americans soon came to their senses and forgot Roosevelt. Between Franklin Roosevelt and Barack Obama were Eisenhower Republicans and Carter Democrats. But Peronist politicians have dominated the Argentine political landscape since the '40s.

Every problem demands a government solution. And every Peronist solution makes things worse.

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This Rally Shows a Deeper Illness

_{Simon Johnson is a professor at the M.I.T. Sloan School of Management and co-founder of the global crisis Web site BaselineScenario. He is a regular contributor to the Times’s Economix blog.}

Some stock market rallies are reassuring. Others provide at least temporary respite. And a third kind, more commonly seen in emerging markets, actually expose deeper underlying problems and contribute to a further downturn.

We seem to be experiencing this third kind of rally in the U.S. right now. Equity prices are up sharply, but the debt market continues to indicate a high probability of default. In particular, the level and recent trajectory of credit default swap spreads suggest that, as the financial system as a whole stabilizes, market participants expect increasing odds of failure (and failed bailout attempts) for the very largest banks.

The equity market rally, paradoxically, creates conditions in which the government can consider letting a major bank default. Of course, this situation arises also because the administration is low on bailout money, and Congress has lost patience with all the “rescue” efforts since September and is not inclined to provide more.

Broader financial system risk would rise sharply if a major bank fails and there are large unexpected spillover effects, as after the Lehman collapse in September of last year. Instability may jump from the U.S. to the rest of the world, and then potentially back to us. And it remains unclear what the U.S. Treasury — by itself or working with the G-20 — has done to plan for the worst contingencies.

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Whitney: Bank Losses Through 2010

Carl Gutierrez, 04.08.09, 01:15 PM EDT

Meredith Whitney argues that financial firms have failed to reserve against real estate and mortgage losses.

In a report to clients of the Meredith Whitney Advisory Group, the closely followed bank stock analyst reiterated her bearish position on the financial sector and the economy in general. Though some are forecasting a recovery in late 2009 or 2010, Whitney believes that banks have still not properly reserved against greater than expected losses in home prices. Her earnings forecasts for 2009 and 2010 are almost across the board lower than consensus.

In Whitney's narrative financial firms will relive the worst struggles of 2008 because housing prices in the major markets will fall much further than expected. Bank of America ( BAC - news - people ), HSBC ( HBC - news - people ) and even the resilient JP Morgan Chase ( JPM - news - people ) will have to increase reserves as real estate losses mount unabated. Home price expectations for the banking industry play a critical role in their entire accrual accounting methodology.

"When a bank carries both a loan and a loss reserve against such a loan on its balance sheet, where that bank expects home prices to bottom is a key assumption much like unemployment or interest rates," Whitney warns.

Her report, titled, "The Agony of Incrementalism" forecasts home prices to fall by more than 66.0% of current bank assumptions in the 10-City Case-Shiller Index.

"Increased liquidity drove home prices higher," Whitney explained, "and contracting liquidity will drive home prices lower." She pointed out that 70.0% of homeowners need leverage to buy and stay in their homes, therefore an overall declining mortgage market will put pressure on prices.

As home prices fall and as unemployment rises, banks will have to retain earnings to fund greater reserve funds as part of a cycle that Whitney says has "no end in sight as both forecasts continue to rise quicker than expectations." It's a "never ending game of catch up," she says because the banks have been underestimating losses ever since the credit crisis began a year and a half ago. The average bank thinks the total decline in housing prices was going to be 30% at the end of the first quarter. Now, says Whitney, they're thinking more like 37% -- still behind reality.

As far as the big banks are concerned, Whitney believes JPMorgan Chase will earn $1.15 per share this year and $1.05 in 2010, while Wall Street is looking for $1.47 per share in 2009, and $2.51 the following year.

It goes downhill from there. Wells Fargo ( WFC - news - people ), Whitney predicted, will only earn 65 cents per share, and 55 cents per share, in 2009 and 2010, respectively, while the Street's forecasting $1.18 and $2.07.

Bank of America will even worse, Whitney forecasts, earning only 4 cents per share this year, and 20 cents per share the next, meanwhile the Wall Street is counting on 38 cents per share and $1.39 per share, respectively.

Whitney predicts Citigroup ( C - news - people ) will lose $5.00 per share this year and $3.50 per share in 2010, well off the Street's own dour forecasted loss of $1.18 per share in 2009, and 9 cents per share in 2010.

Goldman Sachs ( GS - news - people ) is the highlight, as Whitney predicts the broker will soundly top Wall Street's estimates, at least this year. Whitney expects Goldman to earn $8.55 per share this year, while the Street's analysts on average are looking for only $7.95. In 2010 she expects earnings to edge up to $9.10 per share, though Wall Street thinks it will be $11.08.

Whitney doesn't think as much of fellow broker Morgan Stanley ( MS - news - people ), calling for earnings of only 55 cents per share in 2009, and $1.05 in 2010, greatly lower than the $1.85 and $3.05 anticipated by Wall Street.

Credit card companies will fare as expected in 2009, with American Express ( AXP - news - people ) recording earnings of 65 cents per share, essentially inline with the Street's 63 cents per share outlook. Meanwhile, she expects Capital One Financial ( COF - news - people ) to los 30 cents per share, also inline with the 28 cents per share loss Wall Street has forecast. Whitney has forecast huge, recession-prolonging cuts in credit card lines as banks continue to doubt the credit worthiness of the American consumer

Whitney believes that Amex won't grow earnings at all in 2010 and that Capital One will post a loss of 35 cents per share. Wall Street on the other hand is looking for a strong turnaround for the credit card hawkers, predicting Amex will record earnings of $1.23 per share, while Capital One will turn a profit of 70 cents per share.

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Op zaterdag 11 april 2009 12:53 schreef pberends het volgende:
http://inflation.us/charts.html

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Dow Jones Index
Adjusted for real inflation, the Dow Jones Index has actually lost much of its value since 1963.

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Op zondag 12 april 2009 11:20 schreef SeLang het volgende:

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Kijken naar de Dow Jones alleen is eigenlijk niet relevant, want je gaat dan voorbij aan het feit dat er ook dividend wordt betaald. De Dow/Gold ratio is om dezelfde reden niet relevant. Daarnaast ga je dan ook nog eens voorbij aan echte reele economische groei die heeft plaatsgevonden.

Btw: de Shiller P/E lost bovengenoemde problemen op

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Op zondag 12 april 2009 10:25 schreef pberends het volgende:

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http://www.forbes.com/200(...)kets-financials.html

http://www.forbes.com/200(...)investing-video.html

Ze zegt dat er nog biljoenen aan creditcard-krediet geschrapt gaat worden aan consumenten. Dit zal samen, met een werkeloosheid die ruim boven de 10 procent groeit, enorme impact gaan hebben op de consumentenuitgaven en daarmee de economie. Ook zullen daardoor huizenprijzen verder vallen en banken onder zware druk blijven staan.

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Op zondag 12 april 2009 14:22 schreef Ritmo het volgende:

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Dat is toch idioot? De afgunst richting de banken wordt alleen maar groter en de economie wordt idd nog dieper de put ingetrapt. Ze zijn echt achterlijk daar in Amerika, om dat op dit moment te doen.

Waarom post jij hier trouwens alleen maar slecht nieuws als ik vragen mag?

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Op zondag 12 april 2009 14:22 schreef Ritmo het volgende:

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Dat is toch idioot? De afgunst richting de banken wordt alleen maar groter en de economie wordt idd nog dieper de put ingetrapt. Ze zijn echt achterlijk daar in Amerika, om dat op dit moment te doen.

Waarom post jij hier trouwens alleen maar slecht nieuws als ik vragen mag?

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Op zondag 12 april 2009 14:59 schreef Alistair het volgende:

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Doemdenker die weinig tot niet profiteert van een (al dan niet kortstondige) opgaande markt
En mogelijk omdat er niet echt een eigen visie is anders dan afgaande op Dr. Faber en c.s.

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Op zondag 12 april 2009 15:15 schreef pberends het volgende:

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.

Ben geen doemdenker hoor, zit vaak genoeg long.

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Op zondag 12 april 2009 15:18 schreef Alistair het volgende:

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Om eerlijk te zijn zit ik hier ook nog te kort om een goede mening te kunnen hebben. Mijn eerste indruk echter was dat je best een beetje een doemdenker bent

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Op zondag 12 april 2009 15:24 schreef pberends het volgende:

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Volgens mij ken je Faber amper. Hij gaat vaker long dan short en imho enorm genuanceerd (in tegenstelling tot Jim Rogers, Nouriel Roubini en Peter Schiff).