De Beursvloer #77: Waar de mark to fantasy regels geldden

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Op vrijdag 10 april 2009 17:59 schreef SeLang het volgende:
Zeg capricia...
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Op vrijdag 10 april 2009 16:35 schreef SeLang het volgende:
Dit was trouwens die foto die SE bedoelde van na de crash.
Check de afdruk van de valhelm op m'n voorhoofd
Ik wil niet weten hoe deze foto eruit had gezien zonder die helm (waarschijnlijk een schedel met een gat erin ofzo)

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Op vrijdag 10 april 2009 18:09 schreef capricia het volgende:

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Hier wat foto's van mij, niet geheel herkenbaar, maar ik ben het echt!
mijn grootste hobbie airsoft..!

**incognito en gecamoufleerd**

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Op vrijdag 10 april 2009 18:12 schreef Alistair het volgende:

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Duidelijker kon eigenlijk niet

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Op vrijdag 10 april 2009 18:12 schreef Alistair het volgende:

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Duidelijker kon eigenlijk niet

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Op vrijdag 10 april 2009 18:19 schreef sitting_elfling het volgende:

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Ach als je d'r wil zien zul je op de AEX meeting moeten wachten, daar worden vast wel shots gemaakt van alles en iedereen.

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Op vrijdag 10 april 2009 18:26 schreef SeLang het volgende:

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En hier gepost

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Op zaterdag 11 april 2009 12:53 schreef pberends het volgende:
http://inflation.us/charts.html

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Dow Jones Index
Adjusted for real inflation, the Dow Jones Index has actually lost much of its value since 1963.

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A 'Rebubble' Attempt

By Bill Bonner
Buenos Aires, Argentina

The rally is on! The Dow rose another 246 points yesterday.

Enjoy it while it lasts...but keep those trailing stops tight.

The "End of the Rally is Nigh," says Barron's.

Our old friend, Marc Faber, says he expects a 10% drop in the stock market before the rally resumes.

Maybe. This rally is going to end sometime. But it probably has a ways to go. There are still a lot of suckers who haven't been drawn in.

Another old friend, Rick Ackerman, thinks the problem with this rally is capitulation...or rather, the lack of it. There's been no capitulation, says he. And you can't have a real bottom without it. No capitulation, no bottom.

The news from the economy is bad and getting worse.

Credit card debt has just taken its biggest plunge in 32 years...maybe ever. Credit card balances fell 9.7% in February. And the number of open credit card accounts is going down too.

What happens when people can't pay down their loans?

"Mortgage delinquencies soar in the US," says a Reuters article. Remember, delinquencies are the beginning of the process. Then come foreclosures and auctions - all eventually driving housing prices down further.

And when property prices fall, so does the collateral behind the banks' and other financial institutions' assets. So, their troubles aren't over. The worst is still ahead of us, not behind us.

But despite the bad economic outlook, investors think the worst is past for the stock market. Markets look ahead, they say, beyond the immediate economic forecast. True, but they have an adorable habit of seeing only what they want to see.

"In January 2008, when the S&Ps were in the early stages of what was to become a devastating collapse," explains Rick Ackerman, "domestic equity mutual funds were worth about $6.5 trillion. Lo, a little more than a year later, in February 2009, we see that the value of these funds had fallen by about 48%, to $3.4 trillion. But guess what: Over that time, net redemptions totaled only 2%, or about $100 billion! What that means, explicitly, is that mutual fund investors have stuck with this bear market throughout the decline."

Investors didn't give up on stocks - despite the huge decline in stock market prices. What that means is that there's still a lot of selling to be done.

"This bear market will end," he continues, "like every other bear market in history, with a wholesale dumping of stocks at prices that will make current values seem exorbitant in comparison."

That's why you use trailing stops. You want to be sure that when the selling begins your stocks get sold first - long before most investors finally capitulate.

More news on how to play this bear market from Addison and The 5:

"If you're shorting stocks, this might be of use," writes Addison Wiggin. "Now that the easy targets are long gone (big banks, homebuilders, AIG) and the bear market rally is in full swing, short sellers are setting their sites on some more diverse organizations."



"Hmmm... pretty all over the board, eh?" Addison notes. "There's a mobile tech biz, several real estate players, home healthcare, a bank and a popular chain of sandwich shops. What's the connection?"

"Most of the stocks on this list," answers our resident short seller Dan Amoss, "are characterized by at least one of these three facets: Shorting the stock is a current fad, the company is using 'creative" accounting methods that traders think is fraudulent, or the company is a high risk for insolvency.

"Regardless, bulls beware... when you see short interest that high (as a % of outstanding shares), you rarely see sustainable short squeezes."

That's good news for Dan's Strategic Short Report readers. Late last month they amassed a new short position in one of the stocks listed above... one that already paid them out 57% in 2008. Given the latest market rally, this short is all the more attractive today. To find out which of these stocks Dan recommends you bet against, along with the rest of his stellar short side advice, check out Strategic Short Report, here.

And back to Bill with more thoughts:

It's amazing how much credibility some people have. Seems almost infinite. No matter how bad their advice...or how little they understand...people still ask their opinions.

Or, to put it another way...it's amazing what most people will believe.

You'd think - after $50 trillion in losses - that people would be careful whom they listened to. Who would take Alan Greenspan's thoughts seriously, for example? Yet, the newspapers still report his remarks with a straight face.

And what about all the economists who claimed that since the "U.S. has the world's most flexible, dynamic economy" you couldn't go wrong buying U.S. stocks? And what about the market timers who urged investors to buy "bargains" when the Dow was only 10% below its peak? And how about the regulators - such as Tim Geithner - who completely missed the biggest Ponzi scheme of all time, taking place right under their noses? And the economists who thought derivative debt made the financial world safer by "distributing risk more widely?" And those, such as Hank Paulson, who thought the sub-prime crisis was "contained" at $100 billion in losses? (Current cost of the bailouts - $12.8 TRILLION!)

As our friend Nicholas Taleb says, it's as if these guys had wrecked a school bus - while they were driving drunk.

But instead of putting them in jail - they're given a new school bus to drive!

Kevin Phillips, author of Bad Money: Reckless Finance, Failed Politics, and the Global Crisis of American Capitalism warned of a the pending explosion of a 25-year "multibubble."

The bubbles began in the 1980s, he says, when the financial sector accounted for 10 percent to 12 percent of the U.S. economy had grew to an "arguably crippling" 20 percent to 21 percent of GDP by the middle of this decade.

Who's to blame? Henry Paulson, he says...and Ben Bernanke...and Alan Greenspan.

The Reuters report: "Phillips calls Paulson a Wall Street insider who was looking out for his own, and Bernanke an academic misguidedly trying to refight the 1930s Great Depression. Together they formed the wrong team at the wrong time whose ad hoc approach threw away hundreds of billions of dollars and more than doubled the Fed's balance sheet, he says.

"What you're seeing Bernanke do is he's trying to create a bailout reflationary bubble, which he can't describe as a bubble, just as Greenspan couldn't describe the housing mortgage bubble as a bubble. What we're seeing by Bernanke is a covert attempt to rebubble," Phillips told Reuters.

Meanwhile, Nouriel Roubini - who's been mostly right about the crisis - says that [Jim] "Cramer is a buffoon."

"He was one of those who called six times in a row for this bear market rally to be a bull market rally and he got it wrong. And after all this mess and Jon Stewart he should just shut up because he has no shame...He's not a credible analyst. Every time it was a bear market rally he said it was the beginning of a bull and he got it wrong."

Roubini warned two years ago that the United States faced its worse recession in four decades. He points out that the current rally on Wall Street merely follows the pattern of other major downturns.

"Once people get the reality check than it's going to get ugly again," he says.

Finally, as promised in yesterday's issue: What can we learn from Argentina?

In the '30s, Argentina suffered along with the rest of the world. Until then, it was roughly as rich as Europe and rivaled America in some ways.

"As rich as an Argentine," was an expression in England. Marrying one's daughter to an Argentine planter was the dream of many down-at-the- heels English aristocrat.

But something went very wrong on the pampas. Instead of Franklin Roosevelt's New Deal, the Argentine's got a raw deal from Juan Peron. Both programs were frauds. Both made things worse. But Peron's program stuck. Americans soon came to their senses and forgot Roosevelt. Between Franklin Roosevelt and Barack Obama were Eisenhower Republicans and Carter Democrats. But Peronist politicians have dominated the Argentine political landscape since the '40s.

Every problem demands a government solution. And every Peronist solution makes things worse.

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This Rally Shows a Deeper Illness

_{Simon Johnson is a professor at the M.I.T. Sloan School of Management and co-founder of the global crisis Web site BaselineScenario. He is a regular contributor to the Times’s Economix blog.}

Some stock market rallies are reassuring. Others provide at least temporary respite. And a third kind, more commonly seen in emerging markets, actually expose deeper underlying problems and contribute to a further downturn.

We seem to be experiencing this third kind of rally in the U.S. right now. Equity prices are up sharply, but the debt market continues to indicate a high probability of default. In particular, the level and recent trajectory of credit default swap spreads suggest that, as the financial system as a whole stabilizes, market participants expect increasing odds of failure (and failed bailout attempts) for the very largest banks.

The equity market rally, paradoxically, creates conditions in which the government can consider letting a major bank default. Of course, this situation arises also because the administration is low on bailout money, and Congress has lost patience with all the “rescue” efforts since September and is not inclined to provide more.

Broader financial system risk would rise sharply if a major bank fails and there are large unexpected spillover effects, as after the Lehman collapse in September of last year. Instability may jump from the U.S. to the rest of the world, and then potentially back to us. And it remains unclear what the U.S. Treasury — by itself or working with the G-20 — has done to plan for the worst contingencies.

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Whitney: Bank Losses Through 2010

Carl Gutierrez, 04.08.09, 01:15 PM EDT

Meredith Whitney argues that financial firms have failed to reserve against real estate and mortgage losses.

In a report to clients of the Meredith Whitney Advisory Group, the closely followed bank stock analyst reiterated her bearish position on the financial sector and the economy in general. Though some are forecasting a recovery in late 2009 or 2010, Whitney believes that banks have still not properly reserved against greater than expected losses in home prices. Her earnings forecasts for 2009 and 2010 are almost across the board lower than consensus.

In Whitney's narrative financial firms will relive the worst struggles of 2008 because housing prices in the major markets will fall much further than expected. Bank of America ( BAC - news - people ), HSBC ( HBC - news - people ) and even the resilient JP Morgan Chase ( JPM - news - people ) will have to increase reserves as real estate losses mount unabated. Home price expectations for the banking industry play a critical role in their entire accrual accounting methodology.

"When a bank carries both a loan and a loss reserve against such a loan on its balance sheet, where that bank expects home prices to bottom is a key assumption much like unemployment or interest rates," Whitney warns.

Her report, titled, "The Agony of Incrementalism" forecasts home prices to fall by more than 66.0% of current bank assumptions in the 10-City Case-Shiller Index.

"Increased liquidity drove home prices higher," Whitney explained, "and contracting liquidity will drive home prices lower." She pointed out that 70.0% of homeowners need leverage to buy and stay in their homes, therefore an overall declining mortgage market will put pressure on prices.

As home prices fall and as unemployment rises, banks will have to retain earnings to fund greater reserve funds as part of a cycle that Whitney says has "no end in sight as both forecasts continue to rise quicker than expectations." It's a "never ending game of catch up," she says because the banks have been underestimating losses ever since the credit crisis began a year and a half ago. The average bank thinks the total decline in housing prices was going to be 30% at the end of the first quarter. Now, says Whitney, they're thinking more like 37% -- still behind reality.

As far as the big banks are concerned, Whitney believes JPMorgan Chase will earn $1.15 per share this year and $1.05 in 2010, while Wall Street is looking for $1.47 per share in 2009, and $2.51 the following year.

It goes downhill from there. Wells Fargo ( WFC - news - people ), Whitney predicted, will only earn 65 cents per share, and 55 cents per share, in 2009 and 2010, respectively, while the Street's forecasting $1.18 and $2.07.

Bank of America will even worse, Whitney forecasts, earning only 4 cents per share this year, and 20 cents per share the next, meanwhile the Wall Street is counting on 38 cents per share and $1.39 per share, respectively.

Whitney predicts Citigroup ( C - news - people ) will lose $5.00 per share this year and $3.50 per share in 2010, well off the Street's own dour forecasted loss of $1.18 per share in 2009, and 9 cents per share in 2010.

Goldman Sachs ( GS - news - people ) is the highlight, as Whitney predicts the broker will soundly top Wall Street's estimates, at least this year. Whitney expects Goldman to earn $8.55 per share this year, while the Street's analysts on average are looking for only $7.95. In 2010 she expects earnings to edge up to $9.10 per share, though Wall Street thinks it will be $11.08.

Whitney doesn't think as much of fellow broker Morgan Stanley ( MS - news - people ), calling for earnings of only 55 cents per share in 2009, and $1.05 in 2010, greatly lower than the $1.85 and $3.05 anticipated by Wall Street.

Credit card companies will fare as expected in 2009, with American Express ( AXP - news - people ) recording earnings of 65 cents per share, essentially inline with the Street's 63 cents per share outlook. Meanwhile, she expects Capital One Financial ( COF - news - people ) to los 30 cents per share, also inline with the 28 cents per share loss Wall Street has forecast. Whitney has forecast huge, recession-prolonging cuts in credit card lines as banks continue to doubt the credit worthiness of the American consumer

Whitney believes that Amex won't grow earnings at all in 2010 and that Capital One will post a loss of 35 cents per share. Wall Street on the other hand is looking for a strong turnaround for the credit card hawkers, predicting Amex will record earnings of $1.23 per share, while Capital One will turn a profit of 70 cents per share.

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Op zaterdag 11 april 2009 12:53 schreef pberends het volgende:
http://inflation.us/charts.html

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Dow Jones Index
Adjusted for real inflation, the Dow Jones Index has actually lost much of its value since 1963.

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Op zondag 12 april 2009 11:20 schreef SeLang het volgende:

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Kijken naar de Dow Jones alleen is eigenlijk niet relevant, want je gaat dan voorbij aan het feit dat er ook dividend wordt betaald. De Dow/Gold ratio is om dezelfde reden niet relevant. Daarnaast ga je dan ook nog eens voorbij aan echte reele economische groei die heeft plaatsgevonden.

Btw: de Shiller P/E lost bovengenoemde problemen op

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Op zondag 12 april 2009 10:25 schreef pberends het volgende:

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http://www.forbes.com/200(...)kets-financials.html

http://www.forbes.com/200(...)investing-video.html

Ze zegt dat er nog biljoenen aan creditcard-krediet geschrapt gaat worden aan consumenten. Dit zal samen, met een werkeloosheid die ruim boven de 10 procent groeit, enorme impact gaan hebben op de consumentenuitgaven en daarmee de economie. Ook zullen daardoor huizenprijzen verder vallen en banken onder zware druk blijven staan.

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Op zondag 12 april 2009 14:22 schreef Ritmo het volgende:

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Dat is toch idioot? De afgunst richting de banken wordt alleen maar groter en de economie wordt idd nog dieper de put ingetrapt. Ze zijn echt achterlijk daar in Amerika, om dat op dit moment te doen.

Waarom post jij hier trouwens alleen maar slecht nieuws als ik vragen mag?

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Op zondag 12 april 2009 14:22 schreef Ritmo het volgende:

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Dat is toch idioot? De afgunst richting de banken wordt alleen maar groter en de economie wordt idd nog dieper de put ingetrapt. Ze zijn echt achterlijk daar in Amerika, om dat op dit moment te doen.

Waarom post jij hier trouwens alleen maar slecht nieuws als ik vragen mag?

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Op zondag 12 april 2009 14:59 schreef Alistair het volgende:

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Doemdenker die weinig tot niet profiteert van een (al dan niet kortstondige) opgaande markt
En mogelijk omdat er niet echt een eigen visie is anders dan afgaande op Dr. Faber en c.s.

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Op zondag 12 april 2009 15:15 schreef pberends het volgende:

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.

Ben geen doemdenker hoor, zit vaak genoeg long.

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Op zondag 12 april 2009 15:18 schreef Alistair het volgende:

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Om eerlijk te zijn zit ik hier ook nog te kort om een goede mening te kunnen hebben. Mijn eerste indruk echter was dat je best een beetje een doemdenker bent

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Op zondag 12 april 2009 15:24 schreef pberends het volgende:

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Volgens mij ken je Faber amper. Hij gaat vaker long dan short en imho enorm genuanceerd (in tegenstelling tot Jim Rogers, Nouriel Roubini en Peter Schiff).

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Op zondag 12 april 2009 15:26 schreef Alistair het volgende:

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Het ging mij vooral om jou en niet zozeer om Faber

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Op zondag 12 april 2009 15:35 schreef pberends het volgende:

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Ik volg Faber vaak, dus wat kakel je?

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Op zondag 12 april 2009 16:29 schreef Alistair het volgende:

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Dat is ondertussen wel bij iedereen duidelijk ja
Laat maar verder. Ik voel namelijk geen enkele behoefte om een onzinnige discussie te gaan voeren

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Op zondag 12 april 2009 16:35 schreef pberends het volgende:

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Valt me op dat in dit topic de laatste tijd steeds meer FP-idioten komen. Ik stop maar met het linken van de FP naar dit subforum. Lees je eerst een paar maanden in voordat je ook maar 1 bericht plaatst.

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Op zondag 12 april 2009 16:39 schreef PietjePuk007 het volgende:
Doe eens normaal, we zijn allemaal vrijwilligers en die hoef je niet op zo'n manier te schofferen.

Daarnaast ben ik 't inhoudelijk ook nog eens met je oneens, iedereen is hier welkom. Het filteren op niveau is zeer ongewenst.

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Op zondag 12 april 2009 16:42 schreef PietjePuk007 het volgende:
pberends natuurlijk .

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Op zondag 12 april 2009 16:44 schreef Lemmeb het volgende:

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Oké. Maar Alistair is toch geen "vrijwilliger"? Is volgens mij een 'gewone' user. Dus ik snap je post niet helemaal.

Afijn, ik vermoed dat pberends gisteren iets verkeerds heeft gegeten. Want dit doet hij anders nooit!

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Op zondag 12 april 2009 16:44 schreef Lemmeb het volgende:


Afijn, ik vermoed dat pberends gisteren iets verkeerds heeft gegeten. Want dit doet hij anders nooit!

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Op zondag 12 april 2009 16:47 schreef sitting_elfling het volgende:
Dat pberends fan is van een aantal economen druipt er natuurlijk vanaf, maar dat mag hij toch lekker zelf weten?

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Op zondag 12 april 2009 16:50 schreef pberends het volgende:

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.

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Op zondag 12 april 2009 16:50 schreef Lemmeb het volgende:

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Chinees zeker?

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More Quickly Than It Began, The Banking Crisis Is Over

By 24/7 Wall St. Friday, Apr. 10, 2009

Investors find it disconcerting to see the stocks in the huge financial institutions that are at the foundation of the global capital system trading up and down 25% a day, and, in some cases trading in the pennies. Banks became the visible and ugly wound that reminded Wall St. each day that it had torn down what it spent decades building, which was a money-making machine driven by leverage and the cleverest synthetic financial instruments the world has ever seen.

But, the great banking crisis of 2008 is over. It began last September 15 when Lehman Brothers filed for bankruptcy and bottomed when Citigroup (C) traded below $1 last month. Most analysts believe that mortgage-backed securities which included packages of subprime home loans failed when mortgage default rates went up and housing prices raced down. That is only partially true. Banks made a tremendous series of ill-advised loans to private equity firms, hedge funds, commercial real estate holders, and the average man with a credit card balance which he cannot pay. (See pictures of the top 10 scared traders.)

When people look back on the near-collapse of the banking system they may say that the Congress and Henry Paulson threw enough money into the path of the oncoming failure of the credit system to slow it down so that the government could properly go through the process of guaranteeing parts of the balance sheets of firms including Citigroup (C) and Bank of America (BAC). The initial TARP may also have provided time for the new Administration to put together its widely hailed bank "stress test" program meant to determine which of the big financial institutions have dysentery and which do not. Finally, the hundreds of billions of dollars that went into the largest banks late last year allowed Secretary Geithner to produce his public/private partnership to buy toxic assets off of bank balance sheets.

All of those plans, no matter how well-intentioned they may seem, are unnecessary now. Wells Fargo (WFC) indicated that it made about $3 billion in the first quarter of the year and declared its buyout of the deeply troubled Wachovia to be a success. Wells Fargo (WFC) said that the low cost of money from the government combined with a surging demand for mortgages was all the medicine that it required.

Banks stocks reacted to the news, which took the markets completely by surprise, by driving up Wells Fargo's stock by 32%. Bank of America (BAC) shares jumped 35%.

Oddly absent from the discussion of how well Wells Fargo did is why the government was in the midst of testing bank balance sheets at all. The experts at the Treasury had been thrown off the scent and consequently had missed the fact that there was not need to test what is already working well. The same holds true for the Geithner plan to take toxic assets off bank balance sheets. It is academic now. What banks are earning from the difference between the cost of capital and the income from lending is now great enough for the banking system to be self-sustaining again.

What will happen at this point is that bank stocks will not go up much more, but they will not dive sharply down either. There is enough evidence in comments from the CEOs of Citi and B of A and in the Wells Fargo earnings to show that the idea that banks are insolvent and probably in need of nationalization is no longer part of the consideration of how the problems with the system will be settled.

It is equally safe to say that the large American banks are works in progress which are, in most ways, still dilapidated. Treasury Department analysts may not have the IQs of the PhDs who created mortgage-backed securities, but they did not do their detective work blindly when they insisted that bank balance sheets and loan portfolios needed close examination. It is also true that the private capital firms which plan to buy toxic assets using taxpayer money were not enticed into the new program based on an illusion. The banking system is still terribly weak and there is almost no one with an in-depth knowledge of the credit market tapestry who does not believe that there are hundreds of billions of Confederate dollars being held in the vaults of the major banks. (See the 25 people to blame for the financial crisis.)

The banking crisis may be over, but what is left is a reclamation job that will probably take years to complete, will still have a taxpayer price tag of over $1 trillion, and will leave America's largest financial firms as institutions of modest power and a regulated scope which will prevent them from looking anything like what they did two years ago.

— Douglas A. McIntyre

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Op zondag 12 april 2009 19:32 schreef edwinh het volgende:
More Quickly Than It Began, The Banking Crisis Is Over > Yeah Right

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Op zondag 12 april 2009 20:01 schreef Dave7 het volgende:
OMFG!

Ik voel me zo verdomd alleen

Youtube kredietcrisis topic

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Op zondag 12 april 2009 16:53 schreef PietjePuk007 het volgende:
Hij wilde gewoon ff een paasvuurtje stoken.

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Op maandag 13 april 2009 09:58 schreef edwinh het volgende:
"Anyone who is doing anything sensible right now is either losing money or is out of the market entirely." These are the words of a quant trader, who is seeing something scary in the capital markets. Scary enough to merit a warning that we could be on the verge of another October 87, August 2007, or January 2008.

Lees en huiver

http://zerohedge.blogspot(...)arket-liquidity.html

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Op maandag 13 april 2009 11:42 schreef One_conundrum het volgende:
mooi stukje pb

Als ik die papieren van binck morgen opstuur, wanneer kan ik dan met geld smijten?

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Op maandag 13 april 2009 09:58 schreef edwinh het volgende:
"Anyone who is doing anything sensible right now is either losing money or is out of the market entirely." These are the words of a quant trader, who is seeing something scary in the capital markets. Scary enough to merit a warning that we could be on the verge of another October 87, August 2007, or January 2008.

Lees en huiver

http://zerohedge.blogspot(...)arket-liquidity.html

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Russell 2000 Rising 36% Flashes Warning for S&P Rally (Update1)

April 13 (Bloomberg) -- The Russell 2000 Index’s record one-month gain is sending danger signals to investors who remember how similar rallies in U.S. stocks came to an end.

The gauge of companies with a median value of $301 million is beating the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index, where stocks have an average market value of $6.5 billion, by 9.8 percentage points. Gains in the Russell 2000 are being led by an 11-fold jump in Spansion Inc., a bankrupt chipmaker, and a sevenfold rise for Hayes Lemmerz International Inc., a wheel manufacturer that hasn’t had a profit since 2006.

While small-caps tend to lead the way out of bear markets, when they have outpaced larger stocks by this much, both indexes erased gains and fell, according to data compiled by Birinyi Associates Inc. Increased trading and ratios of advancing to falling stocks have also risen to levels that preceded declines, boosting investor concerns that the S&P 500’s 27 percent advance since March 9 will end the same way as the 24 percent rally that fizzled in January.

“This move is too explosive to be sustainable,” said Jack Ablin, chief investment officer at Chicago-based Harris Private Bank, which oversees $60 billion. “None of the structural underpinnings of the market have really changed. It’s going to be a multiyear healing process.”

Profit Slump

Bank losses approaching $1.3 trillion spurred the first simultaneous recessions in the U.S., Europe and Japan since World War II last year, pushing the benchmark gauge for U.S. equities down as much as 57 percent from its October 2007 record. Profits among S&P 500 companies have dropped for six straight quarters and are forecast to decline for three more, the longest streak since the Great Depression, according to data from S&P and estimates compiled by Bloomberg.

Mistaking a temporary jump for a sustained bull market can be costly. In 41 so-called bear market rallies since 1928 -- gains of more than 10 percent that are later wiped out -- equities fell an average 25 percent after peaking, according to Birinyi, the Westport, Connecticut-based money-management and research firm founded by Laszlo Birinyi.

Soros Fund Management LLC’s George Soros and BlackRock Inc.’s Dan Chamby also say investors should be wary of the S&P 500’s rise. The surge between March 9 and April 9 ranks as the steepest 23-day advance since 1933, according to data from Howard Silverblatt, an S&P analyst based in New York.

Steeper jumps for small-cap stocks one month into a rally are signs of indiscriminate buying and usually come before equities fall, said Cleve Rueckert, a Birinyi analyst. The Russell 2000’s 36 percent climb since March 9 is its steepest since the index began in 1979, according to Bloomberg data.

No Reason

“It’s unusual for a new cycle to start with such an abrupt gain,” Rueckert said. “Bear market rallies are broad. Everything goes up really sharp, really fast and not necessarily for a particular reason.”

None of the bull markets tracked by Birinyi included small- caps outperforming after a month by the rate they are now. On average, smaller stocks are tied with the S&P 500 at this stage of a lasting recovery, the data show.

Small-caps were beating larger stocks before the end of the advance in January. The Russell 2000 increased 34 percent from Nov. 20 to Jan. 6, a stretch in which the S&P 500 index added 24 percent. The S&P 500 fell to a 12-year low two months later.

“We’re not convinced that this rally will be sustained,” Chamby, who helps run the $23.5 billion BlackRock Global Allocation Fund, said on April 7 in an interview from New York. “We’re defensively positioned, so we are underweight equities.”

2009 Losses

The S&P 500 added 1.7 percent last week, extending its rebound since March 9 to 27 percent. For 2009, the index is down 5.2 percent, compared with a 6.3 percent retreat for the Russell 2000. S&P 500 futures lost 0.7 percent today.

Unprecedented stimulus measures may mean history is no guide for handicapping stocks, because the government’s $12.8 trillion of spending to revive the economy will lift earnings and keep stocks from retesting their March lows, said John Wilson of Morgan Keegan & Co. in Memphis, Tennessee. President Barack Obama has proposed a $3.6 trillion budget blueprint that he says will bring tax relief for most working Americans while making investments in energy infrastructure and education.

“I don’t think just because we’ve had a sharp move in the small-caps that it means it’s a bear-market rally,” said Wilson, who helps oversee $120 billion as co-director of equity strategy. “I don’t think you can throw caution to the wind, but you can be cautiously optimistic.”

Six-Year Low

Just 58 companies in the Russell 2000 have dropped since the index reached a six-year low on March 9. Sunnyvale, California-based Spansion and Hayes Lemmerz in Northville, Michigan, led the rebound.

The balance of rising shares is another sign stocks may fall, Birinyi data show. From March 9 to April 9, companies on the New York Stock Exchange posted almost 17,000 more single-day advances than declines, a record compared with past equity market rallies. So-called contrarian investors argue that too widespread a recovery shows investors aren’t paying attention to fundamentals such as earnings and economic growth.

U.S. stocks posted the broadest increase since at least July 2004 on March 23, when 21 companies rose for each that fell on the NYSE, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

“We’ve run pretty far, pretty fast,” said Bruce McCain, chief investment strategist at Cleveland-based Key Private Bank, which manages $22 billion. “We would be looking more for an indication of a market that claws its way off the bottom in somewhat slower moves.”

Normally Bullish

Another normally bullish sign that’s increasing investor concerns is the rise in trading volume, Birinyi’s data indicate. Since March 9, the number of shares traded on the NYSE has been about 23 percent higher than in the preceding 200 days. That compares with an average 13 percent climb during the first month of bull markets.

Companies in the S&P 500 may report a 38 percent decline in first-quarter earnings and those in the S&P SmallCap 600 will post a 46 percent slump, based on analysts’ estimates compiled by Bloomberg and New York-based Brown Brothers Harriman & Co. More than 30 S&P 500 companies and at least 90 in the Russell 2000 are scheduled to release results this week.

The American economy contracted at a 6.3 percent rate in the three months ending in December and is forecast to decline 5 percent in the first quarter and 1.9 percent in the next, based on a Bloomberg survey of economists.

“It’s a bear-market rally because we have not yet turned the economy around,” Soros, the billionaire hedge-fund manager who made money last year while most peers suffered losses, said in an April 6 Bloomberg Television interview in New York. “This isn’t a financial crisis like all the other financial crises that we have experienced in our lifetime.”

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Op maandag 13 april 2009 13:53 schreef pberends het volgende:
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/av/

Jim Rogers Says Investors Should Expect More `Bottoms' April 13 (Bloomberg) -- Jim Rogers, chairman of Singapore-based Rogers Holdings, talks with Bloomberg's Paul Gordon, Bernard Lo and Mike Firn about the outlook for global stocks. Play Watch

Jim Rogers

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Wall Street siddert om plannen General Motors

Wall Street is vandaag, Tweede Paasdag, gewoon geopend. Verwacht wordt de beurs lager opent. Met spanning wordt naar de koers van de bijna omgevallen autoreus General Motors gekeken.

Beurs gewoon geopend
De futures geven aan dat de brede index S&P 500 zo'n 8 punten lager opent op 845. De Nasdaq verliest 8,5 punten op 1327 en de Dow Jones verliest maar liefst 65 punten op 7955.

General Motors
De meeste belangstelling gaat uit naar General Motors. Het geplaagde autoconcern wil van een deel van zijn schuld af. De bedoeling is dat er obligaties ter waarde van 28 miljard dollar worden omgezet in aandelen. Als deze deal niet lukt, en de bestaande aandeelhouders zullen niet blij zijn want er volgt een enorme verwatering van hun belang, dat heeft het Amerikaanse ministerie van Financien al aan GM geëist om het faillissement op 1 juni aan te vragen.

1 juni
Volgens persbureau Dow Jones zou GM per 1 juni in ieder geval al de voorbereidingen voor een faillissementsaanvraag volledig moeten hebben afgerond. Ook moeten de vakbonden meedoen met de sanering. Anders is het over en sluiten voor GM, en volgt er hoogstens nog een afgeslankte doorstart.

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Op maandag 13 april 2009 15:38 schreef pberends het volgende:
Mooie titel heeft RTL Z verzonnen:
[..]

http://www.rtl.nl/(/finan(...)_lager_gm_1_juni.xml

maar liefst 65 punten! woeij!

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Op maandag 13 april 2009 16:28 schreef ruben3123 het volgende:
Banken gaan weer lekker in Amerika.

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Op maandag 13 april 2009 16:06 schreef Dinosaur_Sr het volgende:
okay, Abbie Cohen heeft weer eens een bodem ingeroepen, dus de weg naar beneden ligt weer wijd open

http://www.cnbc.com/id/30190135

wat voor geheimen kent deze fenix dat ze nog steeds niet aan de hoogste antenne van het Empire State building hangt?

/edit/oh, en volgens ons Abby gaat niet alleen de aandelenmarkt, maar ook de obligatiemarkt rallyen. Schiet mij maar lek, waarschijnlijk rallyied alles, ook de handtasjes van Dior, en de eieren van boer Harms. Right Abby? Rallye forever

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Goldman Sach is forecasting that the S&P 500, currently around 850, will hit 900 by the end of this year, Cohen said in a live interview.

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Op maandag 13 april 2009 16:39 schreef ruben3123 het volgende:
Mededelingen
Procentuele verandering Amerikaanse en Canadese indices en aandelen niet correct 13-4-2009
De slotstanden van de Amerikaanse en Canadese aandelen en indices zijn niet correct. De procentuele en absolute verandering wordt hierdoor niet correct weergegeven.

Voor vragen staat onze Klantenservice & Orderdesk u graag te woord. U kunt contact opnemen op telefoonnummer 020 606 2666 of een e-mail sturen naar klantenservice@binck.nl. De Klantenservice & Orderdesk is bereikbaar op werkdagen van 08:00 uur tot 22:00 uur en op zaterdag van 10:00 uur tot 17:00 uur.
Onze excuses voor het ongemak.

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Op maandag 13 april 2009 17:12 schreef edwinh het volgende:

[..]

ik schrik al wtf is er nu gebeurt, olie klopt toch wel? -6^%

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Op maandag 13 april 2009 16:40 schreef pberends het volgende:

[..]


[..]

Wow, wat een projectie! Een gain van 5,5% .

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Op maandag 13 april 2009 19:43 schreef edwinh het volgende:
Stats on how overbought this rally has become

Further to Kopin Tan, some statistics he cites this week go a long way toward illustrating just how overbought this rally has become: Fully 84% of the stock market is now trading above the 50-day m.a.; financials are running 26% above their 50-day m.a. in a gap we have not seen in 20 years.