De Beursvloer #77: Waar de mark to fantasy regels geldden

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Op maandag 13 april 2009 11:42 schreef One_conundrum het volgende:
mooi stukje pb

Als ik die papieren van binck morgen opstuur, wanneer kan ik dan met geld smijten?

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Op maandag 13 april 2009 09:58 schreef edwinh het volgende:
"Anyone who is doing anything sensible right now is either losing money or is out of the market entirely." These are the words of a quant trader, who is seeing something scary in the capital markets. Scary enough to merit a warning that we could be on the verge of another October 87, August 2007, or January 2008.

Lees en huiver

http://zerohedge.blogspot(...)arket-liquidity.html

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Russell 2000 Rising 36% Flashes Warning for S&P Rally (Update1)

April 13 (Bloomberg) -- The Russell 2000 Index’s record one-month gain is sending danger signals to investors who remember how similar rallies in U.S. stocks came to an end.

The gauge of companies with a median value of $301 million is beating the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index, where stocks have an average market value of $6.5 billion, by 9.8 percentage points. Gains in the Russell 2000 are being led by an 11-fold jump in Spansion Inc., a bankrupt chipmaker, and a sevenfold rise for Hayes Lemmerz International Inc., a wheel manufacturer that hasn’t had a profit since 2006.

While small-caps tend to lead the way out of bear markets, when they have outpaced larger stocks by this much, both indexes erased gains and fell, according to data compiled by Birinyi Associates Inc. Increased trading and ratios of advancing to falling stocks have also risen to levels that preceded declines, boosting investor concerns that the S&P 500’s 27 percent advance since March 9 will end the same way as the 24 percent rally that fizzled in January.

“This move is too explosive to be sustainable,” said Jack Ablin, chief investment officer at Chicago-based Harris Private Bank, which oversees $60 billion. “None of the structural underpinnings of the market have really changed. It’s going to be a multiyear healing process.”

Profit Slump

Bank losses approaching $1.3 trillion spurred the first simultaneous recessions in the U.S., Europe and Japan since World War II last year, pushing the benchmark gauge for U.S. equities down as much as 57 percent from its October 2007 record. Profits among S&P 500 companies have dropped for six straight quarters and are forecast to decline for three more, the longest streak since the Great Depression, according to data from S&P and estimates compiled by Bloomberg.

Mistaking a temporary jump for a sustained bull market can be costly. In 41 so-called bear market rallies since 1928 -- gains of more than 10 percent that are later wiped out -- equities fell an average 25 percent after peaking, according to Birinyi, the Westport, Connecticut-based money-management and research firm founded by Laszlo Birinyi.

Soros Fund Management LLC’s George Soros and BlackRock Inc.’s Dan Chamby also say investors should be wary of the S&P 500’s rise. The surge between March 9 and April 9 ranks as the steepest 23-day advance since 1933, according to data from Howard Silverblatt, an S&P analyst based in New York.

Steeper jumps for small-cap stocks one month into a rally are signs of indiscriminate buying and usually come before equities fall, said Cleve Rueckert, a Birinyi analyst. The Russell 2000’s 36 percent climb since March 9 is its steepest since the index began in 1979, according to Bloomberg data.

No Reason

“It’s unusual for a new cycle to start with such an abrupt gain,” Rueckert said. “Bear market rallies are broad. Everything goes up really sharp, really fast and not necessarily for a particular reason.”

None of the bull markets tracked by Birinyi included small- caps outperforming after a month by the rate they are now. On average, smaller stocks are tied with the S&P 500 at this stage of a lasting recovery, the data show.

Small-caps were beating larger stocks before the end of the advance in January. The Russell 2000 increased 34 percent from Nov. 20 to Jan. 6, a stretch in which the S&P 500 index added 24 percent. The S&P 500 fell to a 12-year low two months later.

“We’re not convinced that this rally will be sustained,” Chamby, who helps run the $23.5 billion BlackRock Global Allocation Fund, said on April 7 in an interview from New York. “We’re defensively positioned, so we are underweight equities.”

2009 Losses

The S&P 500 added 1.7 percent last week, extending its rebound since March 9 to 27 percent. For 2009, the index is down 5.2 percent, compared with a 6.3 percent retreat for the Russell 2000. S&P 500 futures lost 0.7 percent today.

Unprecedented stimulus measures may mean history is no guide for handicapping stocks, because the government’s $12.8 trillion of spending to revive the economy will lift earnings and keep stocks from retesting their March lows, said John Wilson of Morgan Keegan & Co. in Memphis, Tennessee. President Barack Obama has proposed a $3.6 trillion budget blueprint that he says will bring tax relief for most working Americans while making investments in energy infrastructure and education.

“I don’t think just because we’ve had a sharp move in the small-caps that it means it’s a bear-market rally,” said Wilson, who helps oversee $120 billion as co-director of equity strategy. “I don’t think you can throw caution to the wind, but you can be cautiously optimistic.”

Six-Year Low

Just 58 companies in the Russell 2000 have dropped since the index reached a six-year low on March 9. Sunnyvale, California-based Spansion and Hayes Lemmerz in Northville, Michigan, led the rebound.

The balance of rising shares is another sign stocks may fall, Birinyi data show. From March 9 to April 9, companies on the New York Stock Exchange posted almost 17,000 more single-day advances than declines, a record compared with past equity market rallies. So-called contrarian investors argue that too widespread a recovery shows investors aren’t paying attention to fundamentals such as earnings and economic growth.

U.S. stocks posted the broadest increase since at least July 2004 on March 23, when 21 companies rose for each that fell on the NYSE, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

“We’ve run pretty far, pretty fast,” said Bruce McCain, chief investment strategist at Cleveland-based Key Private Bank, which manages $22 billion. “We would be looking more for an indication of a market that claws its way off the bottom in somewhat slower moves.”

Normally Bullish

Another normally bullish sign that’s increasing investor concerns is the rise in trading volume, Birinyi’s data indicate. Since March 9, the number of shares traded on the NYSE has been about 23 percent higher than in the preceding 200 days. That compares with an average 13 percent climb during the first month of bull markets.

Companies in the S&P 500 may report a 38 percent decline in first-quarter earnings and those in the S&P SmallCap 600 will post a 46 percent slump, based on analysts’ estimates compiled by Bloomberg and New York-based Brown Brothers Harriman & Co. More than 30 S&P 500 companies and at least 90 in the Russell 2000 are scheduled to release results this week.

The American economy contracted at a 6.3 percent rate in the three months ending in December and is forecast to decline 5 percent in the first quarter and 1.9 percent in the next, based on a Bloomberg survey of economists.

“It’s a bear-market rally because we have not yet turned the economy around,” Soros, the billionaire hedge-fund manager who made money last year while most peers suffered losses, said in an April 6 Bloomberg Television interview in New York. “This isn’t a financial crisis like all the other financial crises that we have experienced in our lifetime.”

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Op maandag 13 april 2009 13:53 schreef pberends het volgende:
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/av/

Jim Rogers Says Investors Should Expect More `Bottoms' April 13 (Bloomberg) -- Jim Rogers, chairman of Singapore-based Rogers Holdings, talks with Bloomberg's Paul Gordon, Bernard Lo and Mike Firn about the outlook for global stocks. Play Watch

Jim Rogers

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Wall Street siddert om plannen General Motors

Wall Street is vandaag, Tweede Paasdag, gewoon geopend. Verwacht wordt de beurs lager opent. Met spanning wordt naar de koers van de bijna omgevallen autoreus General Motors gekeken.

Beurs gewoon geopend
De futures geven aan dat de brede index S&P 500 zo'n 8 punten lager opent op 845. De Nasdaq verliest 8,5 punten op 1327 en de Dow Jones verliest maar liefst 65 punten op 7955.

General Motors
De meeste belangstelling gaat uit naar General Motors. Het geplaagde autoconcern wil van een deel van zijn schuld af. De bedoeling is dat er obligaties ter waarde van 28 miljard dollar worden omgezet in aandelen. Als deze deal niet lukt, en de bestaande aandeelhouders zullen niet blij zijn want er volgt een enorme verwatering van hun belang, dat heeft het Amerikaanse ministerie van Financien al aan GM geëist om het faillissement op 1 juni aan te vragen.

1 juni
Volgens persbureau Dow Jones zou GM per 1 juni in ieder geval al de voorbereidingen voor een faillissementsaanvraag volledig moeten hebben afgerond. Ook moeten de vakbonden meedoen met de sanering. Anders is het over en sluiten voor GM, en volgt er hoogstens nog een afgeslankte doorstart.

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Op maandag 13 april 2009 15:38 schreef pberends het volgende:
Mooie titel heeft RTL Z verzonnen:
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http://www.rtl.nl/(/finan(...)_lager_gm_1_juni.xml

maar liefst 65 punten! woeij!

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Op maandag 13 april 2009 16:28 schreef ruben3123 het volgende:
Banken gaan weer lekker in Amerika.

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Op maandag 13 april 2009 16:06 schreef Dinosaur_Sr het volgende:
okay, Abbie Cohen heeft weer eens een bodem ingeroepen, dus de weg naar beneden ligt weer wijd open

http://www.cnbc.com/id/30190135

wat voor geheimen kent deze fenix dat ze nog steeds niet aan de hoogste antenne van het Empire State building hangt?

/edit/oh, en volgens ons Abby gaat niet alleen de aandelenmarkt, maar ook de obligatiemarkt rallyen. Schiet mij maar lek, waarschijnlijk rallyied alles, ook de handtasjes van Dior, en de eieren van boer Harms. Right Abby? Rallye forever

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Goldman Sach is forecasting that the S&P 500, currently around 850, will hit 900 by the end of this year, Cohen said in a live interview.

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Op maandag 13 april 2009 16:39 schreef ruben3123 het volgende:
Mededelingen
Procentuele verandering Amerikaanse en Canadese indices en aandelen niet correct 13-4-2009
De slotstanden van de Amerikaanse en Canadese aandelen en indices zijn niet correct. De procentuele en absolute verandering wordt hierdoor niet correct weergegeven.

Voor vragen staat onze Klantenservice & Orderdesk u graag te woord. U kunt contact opnemen op telefoonnummer 020 606 2666 of een e-mail sturen naar klantenservice@binck.nl. De Klantenservice & Orderdesk is bereikbaar op werkdagen van 08:00 uur tot 22:00 uur en op zaterdag van 10:00 uur tot 17:00 uur.
Onze excuses voor het ongemak.

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Op maandag 13 april 2009 17:12 schreef edwinh het volgende:

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ik schrik al wtf is er nu gebeurt, olie klopt toch wel? -6^%

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Op maandag 13 april 2009 16:40 schreef pberends het volgende:

[..]


[..]

Wow, wat een projectie! Een gain van 5,5% .

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Op maandag 13 april 2009 19:43 schreef edwinh het volgende:
Stats on how overbought this rally has become

Further to Kopin Tan, some statistics he cites this week go a long way toward illustrating just how overbought this rally has become: Fully 84% of the stock market is now trading above the 50-day m.a.; financials are running 26% above their 50-day m.a. in a gap we have not seen in 20 years.