Olietopic #10 - Prijs per vat rond de 75 dollar

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Oil, gas prices continue to skyrocket
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The predictions for just how high oil can reach this year, just like 2008, continue to creep upward just five months removed from crude priced around $32 per barrel.

Benchmark crude for July delivery rose $1.23 to settle at $66.31 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

Crude prices have spiked 30 percent this month, enough to give anyone vertigo. But the pain is relative.

At this time last year, crude prices were brushing up against $130.

While crude has risen fast through May, we're still around $66.

For gas prices to hit $3, crude would need to go to about $100 a barrel, well above even the highest projections this year of $70 to $75, said Tom Kloza, publisher and chief oil analyst at Oil Price Information service.
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EIA: World Energy Use Projected to Grow 44 Percent Between 2006 and 2030
World marketed energy consumption is projected to grow by 44 percent between 2006 and 2030, driven by strong long-term economic growth in the developing nations of the world, according to the reference case projection from the International Energy Outlook 2009 (IEO2009) released today by the Energy Information Administration (EIA).

The current global economic downturn will dampen world energy demand in the near term, as manufacturing and consumer demand for goods and services slows. However, with economic recovery anticipated to begin within the next 12 to 24 months, most nations are expected to see energy consumption growth at rates anticipated prior to the recession. Total world energy use rises from 472 quadrillion British thermal units (Btu) in 2006 to 552 quadrillion Btu in 2015 and then to 678 quadrillion Btu in 2030.

World oil prices have fallen sharply from their July 2008 high mark. As the world’s economies recover, higher world oil prices are assumed to return and to persist through 2030. In the IEO2009 reference case, world oil prices rise to $110 per barrel in 2015 (in real 2007 dollars) and $130 per barrel in 2030. Total liquid fuels and other petroleum consumption in 2030 is projected to be 22 million barrels per day higher than the 2006 level of 85 million barrels per day. In the reference case, conventional oil supplies from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) contribute 8.2 million barrels per day to the total increase in world liquid fuels production, and conventional supplies from non-OPEC countries add another 3.4 million barrels per day.

In addition, unconventional resources (including biofuels, oil sands, extra-heavy oil, coal-to-liquids, and gas-to-liquids) from both non-OPEC and OPEC sources are expected to become increasingly competitive in the reference case. World production of unconventional resources, which totaled 3.1 million barrels per day in 2006, increases to 13.4 million barrels per day in 2030 in the reference case, accounting for 13 percent of total world liquids supply in 2030.

Recent experience demonstrates that world oil prices can be extremely volatile and, as a result, the IEO2009 includes three world oil price cases that span a very broad range in 2030, from $50 (in 2007 dollars) per barrel in the low price case to $200 per barrel in the high price case. These price paths translate to a fairly broad range of potential supply outlooks in 2030, ranging from 90 million barrels per day in the high price case to 120 million barrels per day in the low price case (compared to 107 million barrels per day in the reference case)

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Op zondag 31 mei 2009 10:49 schreef SeLang het volgende:

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Dat is bijna een verdubbeling in een paar maanden! Dus 'skyrocket' is niets teveel gezegd.

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Op zondag 31 mei 2009 11:12 schreef pberends het volgende:

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Ik denk dat een vat olie in 2030 juist veel minder is dan 130. Simpelweg omdat zonnecellen tegen die tijd zeer efficient en goedkoop zijn.

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Op zondag 31 mei 2009 11:15 schreef pberends het volgende:

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Mhoaw, de olievoorraden nemen atm scherp af. Vandaar dat olie behoorlijk gestegen is. En als olievoorraden nu al afnemen, hoe moet dat wel niet zijn als de economie weer wat aantrekt?

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Op zondag 31 mei 2009 13:11 schreef SeLang het volgende:

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Iedereen zou daarmee moeten ophouden (prijzen 20 jaar vooruit voorspellen). Want kijk eens naar de fout van historische voorspellingen slechts een paar maanden vooruit...
Op een prijs van $100 voorspelden sommigen $120 of $140, anderen misschien $80. De realiteit: Zes maanden later stonden we op $35. Wat voor zin heeft het dan om een prijs te voorspellen voor 2030

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"Die nächste Ölkrise kommt"
Engelse vertaling

A shortage of oil could trigger another global recession around 2013 – says the IEA. By 2010 the price will reach new highs.

The IEA in Paris is warning of a new, much more severe global economic crisis around 2013. The reason is that investments in oil from new projects are being cancelled by large oil companies. If demand starts increasing in 2010, the oil price could explode, fire up inflation and put global growth at risk.

"We are concerned, that oil companies are reducing their investment levels. When demand returns a supply shortage could appear. We are even predicting that this shortage could occur in 2013." Said Nobuo Tanaka, head of the IEA in an interview with Sueddeutsche Zeitung.
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The investment levels are already down 25% from a year ago. The OPEC countries are reducing production, because they do not see sufficient demand. Of 130 large oil projects, 35 have been frozen by February, said OPEC general secretary Abdullah al-Badri.

The investments however, are necessary to meet demand when it starts picking up again. This is not a matter of oil running out, but IEA studies prove that the oil produced from 580 of the largest 800 fields is declining.
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Unfortunately, he has found that because of the global economic crisis, investments in renewable energy and nuclear power are declining. If additional measures are not undertaken however against global warming, and the CO2 emissions continue their step upward trajectory, this will lead to warming of six degrees centigrade by the end of the century. "This would be a disaster", said Tanaka. Then the northern German city of Hanover would be a warm as Marrakech today.
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Oil demand to post sharpest fall since 1981 -IEA

LONDON, May 14 (Reuters) - World oil demand this year will post the sharpest annual decline since 1981 as the economy struggles to bounce back, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said on Thursday.
Demand will contract by 2.56 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2009, the IEA, which advises 28 industrialised countries, said in a monthly report. It previously forecast demand would fall by 2.4 million bpd this year.
Oil market fundamentals remained weak and a rise in oil prices, which hit $60 a barrel for the first time in six months on Tuesday, was due to sentiment rather than evidence of higher consumption, the agency said.
"The oil price seems to have moved a bit higher in the past month largely on the basis of equity markets and sentiment about potential economic recovery," David Fyfe, head of the IEA's Oil Industry and Markets Division, told Reuters.
"But we're not seeing it in terms of the preliminary demand data for early 2009."
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Non-OPEC oil production is about to decline

The group of countries outside the OPEC cartel currently still produces 60% of
world oil production. But this situation will not last much longer as non-OPEC
production is to fall off its plateau in 2010. A plateau that began at the end of
2003 between a production level of 49 to 51 million barrels per day. Caused
by declining production in most of the producing countries in non-OPEC
including Norway, the United Kingdom, Denmark, Australia, Mexico, the
United States and Indonesia. Their decline has until now been compensated
by increasing production mainly in Russia, Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan, China,
Brazil and Canada. But Russian production has been on a plateau since end
2007 and is expected to begin declining soon.

Of even more importance is the overall decline in investments due to the
economic crisis. There was a surge in investment in peaked non-OPEC
countries as the oil price rose since 2006 which turned around into a large
suspension of projects and an even bigger postponement. Ranging from
projects such as an extension to the Forties field in the UK that would start
producing in 2009 adding 25.000 b/d of capacity but has now been cancelled,
to the production of 300.000 b/d from the offshore field of Jidong Kanpu in
China, which has been postponed from early 2010 to the end of 2011. The
extent of cancellation and postponement of project has been presented to
the G8 by the International Energy Agency last May, and sums up to several
million barrels in non-OPEC countries that will not come onto the market in
the 2009-2011 period. This end to the investment boom is going to lead to
deeper declines in already peaked countries, and hence declining production
in overall non-OPEC. More light on the extent of the decline in non-OPEC is
going to come forth from the medium term oil market outlook from the IEA
to be published on 29 June. A report which could prove to be a shocker to
many. As its conclusion will undoubtedly be that OPEC countries will be the
main producers left to prevent an oil crisis from happening in the next five
years. The spare capacity that OPEC currently has, is far from sufficient to
provide the world with the oil it needs for sustained economic growth on
the midterm.

The consequence of this market change will be large as OPEC gains increasing
control and considerable influence on the world’s economy, because it will
be the main block left that can increase oil exports in a couple of years. It
could very well mean beginning of the end of the free oil market, as large
consuming countries such as the USA and China increasingly seek to gain
influence over OPEC her oil flows. Be it through political or military channels.
Hopefully, the countries of the OPEC cartel will be able to significantly
increase their production in the next five to ten years, giving the world some
breathing room to build large scale alternatives to oil. But this remains a dim
prospect given the difficulties that the cartel is already facing with expanding
production due to mainly political problems.

Rembrandt Koppelaar

President ASPO Netherlands

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Op maandag 15 juni 2009 13:08 schreef Q. het volgende:
Samenvatting: we hebben de piek gehad en flikkeren zometeen keihard de duisternis in...

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http://omrpublic.iea.org/currentissues/high.pdf
Forecast global oil demand is adjusted up 120 kb/d for 2009
following stronger‐than‐expected 1Q09 OECD data. Global oil
demand is projected at 83.3 mb/d, ‐2.9% or ‐2.5 mb/d compared
with 2008. These revisions do not necessarily imply economic
recovery, but may reflect a slowing in previously sharp decline.

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First Iraq Oil Bidding Round to Be Held June 29

Iraq will hold its first bidding round for prized oil and gas fields as shceduled on June 29, a government spokesman said Wednesday.
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Some 32 international companies, including oil majors such as Royal Dutch Shell PLC (RDSB.LN), Exxon Mobil Corp. (XOM), Chevron Corp. (CVX), BP PLC (BP) and Total SA (TOT), are expected to take part in the bidding process, planned to be held in Baghdad. The Oil Ministry had pre-qualified 35 international companies for the first bidding round which was announced a year ago.

The ministry is planning to award 20-year long service contracts, which mean that winning companies would receive remuneration in kind for each barrel produced as well as costs. Oil majors prefer deals that give them a share of profits and allow them to book reserves.

The oil fields in questions are Kirkuk and Bai Hassan in northern Iraq, West Qurna-1, North and South Rumaila, Zubair and Missan in southern Iraq. The two non-producing gas fields are Akkas in western Iraq and Mansouriya in the center.
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andere bron (Rigzone)

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Oil futures rally after attack on oil platform in Nigeria

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Oil futures ended above $71 a barrel on Monday, rallying after an attack on an oil platform in Nigeria rekindled supply worries.

Light, sweet crude for August delivery rose $2.33, or 3.3%, to end at $71.49 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

Earlier, the contract soared to an intraday high of $72.40 a barrel.
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Oil futures rise above $73 a barrel in Asia

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BP wins bid to develop Iraq's biggest oilfield

Iraq’s Oil Ministry announced a consortium led by the UK’s BP has accepted a contract to develop the country’s biggest oilfield – the 17-billion barrel Rumaila field in the south.

The consortium, which includes China's CNPC, accepted the deal after Exxon Mobil rejected the government’s $2 a barrel limit.

Most of the world’s major oil companies are taking part in an auction for six Iraqi oil fields and two gas fields on Tuesday. The contracts on offer are worth a total of $16bn.
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Full list of Iraq oil contract bidders

BHP Billiton, Eni, LUKoil, Occidental Petroleum, Sinochem, BP, ExxonMobil, Maersk Oil, ONGC, Sinopec, Chevron, Hess Corp., Marathon, PT Pertamina, StatoilHydro, CNOOC, INPEX Corp., Mitsubishi, Petronas, Total, CNPC, JAPEX, Nexen, Repsol-YPF, Turkish Petroleum Corp. (TPAO), ConocoPhillips, Gazprom Neft, Nippon Oil, Shell, Woodside Petroleum, Edison, Korea Gas Corp. (KOGAS)

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Iraqi oil licensing round runs into trouble as foreign firms only bid for 1 of 3 fields

BAGHDAD (AP) -- Iraq opened up some of its massive oil and gas fields to foreign firms on Tuesday but only one deal was struck by midmorning in a troubling sign for the country's hopes of reconstruction.
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China raises gasoline, diesel prices

BEIJING, June 29 (Xinhua) -- China raised gasoline and diesel prices by 600 yuan (about 87.8 U.S. dollars) per tonne, starting zero o'clock Tuesday.

The increase raised the price for gasoline by about 0.45 yuan per liter, or 8.6 percent, and the price of diesel by about 0.51 yuan per liter, or 9.6 percent, said the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) in a statement on its Web site.

It was the third oil price adjustment this year. On May 31, the NDRC raised the pump prices of gasoline and diesel by 400 yuan per tonne, or 7 percent and 8 percent, respectively.

The adjustment was in response to "recent international oil price fluctuation" under the country's new fuel pricing mechanism, as international crude prices kept rising, said the statement.

According to the new mechanism, China's domestic prices are to be "indirectly linked" to global crude prices "in a controlled manner."
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Op maandag 6 juli 2009 16:42 schreef RemcoDelft het volgende:
Als het "ongeauthoriseerd" is, waarom heeft zo'n medewerker daar dan de mogelijkheid toe?!

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IEA sees global oil supply crunch risk recede

The world may escape an oil supply crisis for the next five years because a slow recovery from the economic downturn would hold down growth of demand, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said on Monday.

The IEA slashed its mid-term estimate for world oil demand, which it said may rise by an average 0,6% a year from 2008 to 2014, down sharply from its forecast of 1,6% growth made last year.
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"Whether we end up facing a supply crunch again by mid-decade, or with a more comfortable buffer of supply flexibility, depends largely on the pace of economic recovery and government action on efficiency," the IEA's director, Nobuo Tanaka, said in a statement.
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In Monday's report it sharply lowered its oil supply estimates and cautioned that tighter supply forecasts for 2013 and 2014 raised the prospect of an "increasingly volatile" market in that period.
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"Oil demand growth will be driven by non-OECD countries, while oil consumption in the OECD will decline," it said, referring to the grouping of 30 rich states. It stressed strong potential growth in China, Asia and the Middle East.

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Greenpeace study finds oil companies may be doomed

Environmental activist network argues that the oil industry might be approaching a tipping point from fall in the price, advances in technology and policies on climate change


A long-term decline in the demand for oil could undermine the huge investments in Canadian tar sands, which have been heavily opposed by environmentalists, according to a report published today.

The report, by Greenpeace, will make uncomfortable reading for the companies that are investing tens of billions of pounds to exploit the hard-to-extract oil in the belief that demand and the price would climb inexorably as countries such as China and India industrialise.

Citing projections from the oil producers' cartel Opec and the International Energy Agency, as well as various oil experts, the report casts doubt on the conventional assumption that consumption and prices will begin gathering pace once the world pulls itself out of recession.

It argues that alongside the cyclical fall in the oil price there are more fundamental structural changes taking place. These are driven by advances in energy efficiency and alternative energy, cleaner vehicles, government policies on climate change and concerns over energy security. Greenpeace has posted the report to 200 shareholders in Shell and BP, including pension funds, in an effort to put pressure on the companies to think again. BP reports quarterly results tomorrow and Shell on Thursday.

Lorne Stockman, the author of the report, said: "A peak in oil demand was barely discussed even a year ago, but now it is a viable idea. When it happens, I wouldn't want to guess, but it will happen sooner than we thought. There has been lots of talk about a supply peak, but it is good to start talking about a demand peak, and that has huge implications for these companies.

"All of the international oil companies as you look beyond 2020 need a high oil price to be profitable, because they are increasingly being pushed to develop expensive resources in not just the tar sands, but in deep water and offshore Arctic sites.

"But there is something more structural going on," he added. "Governments are beginning to act, and not just the Obama administration. In the EU, the policy driver is climate change, and in China and the US, it is about energy security and the vulnerability of the economy to volatility in the oil price."

The rush to exploit the tar sands in Canada has been described as a modern day gold rush that has led to a huge boom in once sleepy towns in the province of Alberta. The oil was once considered too difficult and expensive to extract as it is a mixture of clay, water and bitumen.

Many of the projects have been mothballed until the oil price recovers. It has fallen from a peak of $147 a barrel and is currently at about $68. Merrill Lynch estimates that the price would need to settle at about $80 to make further investment viable. Critics argue that tar sands extraction is disastrous to the environment, causing deforestation, requiring huge amounts of water and greenhouse emissions three to five times greater than conventional crude.

The report notes that Opec and the IEA have been revising projections for oil demand downwards since 2006, with by far the sharpest revision this year. Opec has revised its 2025 oil forecast down by 12% within the past four years.

Peter Hughes, who spent much of his career at BP and BG, and is now director for global energy at consultancy firm Arthur D Little, recently wrote a report titled 'The Beginning of the End for Oil?' He supports the Greenpeace view and said the correlation between oil demand and GDP growth has been weakened. "It is widely accepted that demand in OECD countries has plateaued and is going into decline but it has also been thought that would be massively outweighed by growth in China. But the Chinese think long-term and identified some time ago that the biggest threat to their economic growth was an increasing dependency on imported energy, which is anathema to them. The conclusion is clear – to reduce the reliance on hydrocarbons through energy efficiency and fundamental technology change. I think we will reach peak oil demand in the middle of the next decade."

About 50% of oil demand in the US fuels cars and the report takes hope from the Obama administration having tied recent bailouts for the industry to the development of cleaner vehicles. But it notes the US is far behind China, where government mandates mean new Chinese cars are 56% more fuel-efficient than those built in Detroit. Fuel-efficient cars in China attract 1% sales tax and sports utility vehicles, 40%.

Greenpeace also contends that a high oil price is simply unsustainable. It cites research from Cambridge Energy Research Associates, which suggests that economies become constrained when the price moves into a band between $100 and $120 a barrel, causing the price to fall back. Another report from energy business analysts Douglas Westwood puts the "recession threshold" even lower, at $80 a barrel.

Shell, which has delayed a number of tar sands projects, argues that energy supply will struggle to keep up with the demands of a growing global population and that in the long term there will be upward pressures on energy prices that justify investing in the Canadian tar sands. "Our first oil sands operation, the Athabasca Oil Sands Project (60% Shell share) was built between 1999 and 2003, when the oil price was considerably lower," a spokeswoman said. Shell has the highest exposure of the majors to the tar sands and is most at risk from a decline in demand.

There are contrary views. The Saudi oil minister warned in May that the world could be facing another oil shock, with prices above $150 within two to three years through a lack of investment in new capacity. The International Monetary Fund has expressed similar concerns. Even Greenpeace does not suggest that there will not be temporary squeezes on demand and price spikes. But it believes that the world might fast be approaching a tipping pointthat could have profound implications.

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Elektriciteitsverbruik NL 5% gedaald

Volgens cijfers van Tennet was het Nederlandse elektriciteitsverbruik afgelopen juni 5% lager dan een jaar daarvoor. De daling van 109 TWh naar 103 TWh wordt veroorzaakt door de economische krimp. De bodem van de daling lijkt nog niet in zicht maar door de daling worden wel de kyoto doelstellingen voor CO2 vermindering in 2012 beter haalbaar.



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Russian army drills to defend oil, gas exports

MOSCOW (Reuters) - The Russian army is holding its first major training exercises to protect against what Moscow sees as possible terrorist attacks on its vital oil and gas export routes, the military and media said Wednesday.

Sweeping drills in the Siberian Military district, covering a theater of operations spanning hundreds of miles (km) from Irkutsk to Buryatia near Lake Baikal, started Monday and entered their main phase Wednesday.

"The main focus of the drills is training for effective and preventative measures to counter terrorism and deal with the aftermath of emergencies, as well as with abnormal situations linked to transporting hydrocarbons," the Defense Ministry said on its Website www.mil.ru.

Russia, the world's No. 2 oil exporter, is building a pipeline to carry oil from huge new fields in eastern Siberia to energy-hungry Asian markets, including China, a move that will diversify Moscow's energy reach beyond its traditional European markets.
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What is the status of the U.S. nuclear industry?

There are currently 104 commercial nuclear reactors at 65 nuclear power plants in 31 States. Since 1990, the share of the Nation’s total electricity supply provided by nuclear power generation has averaged about 20%, with the level of nuclear generation growing at roughly the same rate as overall electricity use. Between 1985 and 1996, 34 new reactors were placed in service. In addition, nuclear generation has increased as a result of higher utilization of existing capacity and from technical modifications to increase nuclear plant capacity (expressed in megawatts). In response to incentives provided by the Energy Policy Act of 2005, nuclear power output is expected to grow, but at a slightly lower rate than total electricity generation.