The World Economy in 2010 +- 2 uur
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Pieter Bottelier - Pieter Bottelier is a nonresident scholar in Carnegie's International Economics Program and senior adjunct professor of China studies at the School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS), the Johns Hopkins University. His work currently focuses on China's economic reform and development.
He also taught at Harvard's Kennedy School of Government (2001-2003) and Georgetown University (2004).
Bottelier served in several capacities at the World Bank from 1970 to 1998. During the Asian financial crisis (1997-1998) he was senior adviser to the vice president for East Asia. Other positions included: chief of the World Bank's resident mission in Beijing (1993-1997); director for Latin America (1987-1992); director for North Africa (1992-1993); division chief for Mexico (1982-1987); resident chief economist in Jakarta, Indonesia (1979-1983); and desk economist for various East and West African countries (1970-1979).
Bottelier has authored many articles and book chapters on China's economy. He also serves as an adviser on China to the Conference Board, an independent membership organization that conducts and disseminates research on management and the marketplace.Uri Dadush - Uri Dadush is senior associate and director in Carnegie's new International Economics Program. His work currently focuses on trends in the global economy and the global financial crisis. He is also interested in the implications of the increased weight of developing countries for the pattern of financial flows, trade and migration, and the associated economic policy and governance questions.
A French citizen,
Dadush previously served as the World Bank's director of international trade for six years and before that as director of economic policy for three years. He has also served concurrently as the director of the Bank's world economy group over the last eleven years, leading the preparation of the Bank's flagship reports on the international economy over that period.
Prior to joining the World Bank, he was president and CEO of the Economist Intelligence Unit and Business International, part of the Economist Group (1986-1992); group vice president, international, for Data Resources, Inc. (1982-1986), now Global Insight; and a consultant with McKinsey and Co. in Europe.Jorg Decressin - Heading the World Economic Studies Division in the Research Department at the International Monetary Fund, Jorg Decressin coordinates the production of the IMF's World Economic Outlook. He has previously led the IMF's EU Policies Division and the IMF missions to Israel.
Decressin has published on labor and capital market adjustment in Europe, the reform of the Stability and Growth Pact, and has recently published a book titled Integrating Europe's Financial Markets.Desmond Lachman - Desmond Lachman joined AEI after serving as a managing director and chief emerging market economic strategist at Salomon Smith Barney. He previously served as deputy director in the International Monetary Fund's (IMF) Policy Development and Review Department and was active in staff formulation of IMF policies.
Mr. Lachman has written extensively on the global economic crisis, the U.S. housing market bust, the U.S. dollar, and the strains in the euro area. At AEI, Mr. Lachman is focused on the global macroeconomy, global currency issues, and the multilateral lending agencies.Philip Suttle - Philip Suttle is the new Director of Global Macroeconomic Analysis at the IIF in Washington DC. The IIF is the global association of financial institutions, with more than 365 member institutions around the world. Its primary focus is to provide its membership with research on developments in emerging economies.
Mr. Suttle has had a long career as a global macroeconomist, with a specialization in emerging markets. Before coming to the IIF, he was Managing Director and Global Head of Emerging Markets Research at Barclays Capital. He has also worked at the World Bank, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York and the Bank of England.
For most of his career, however, he was at JP Morgan, where he helped build Morgan's global economic research effort. He joined JPMorgan in London 1988, where he rose to become Head of European Economic Research. He was transferred to New York in 1992 to help build Morgan's international economics research effort. In 1996, he was promoted to Managing Director.
Mr. Suttle is a dual U.S. and U.K. National.Hans Timmer - Hans Timmer is responsible for international economic analysis and forecasts, including short- and medium-term prospects for developing countries, as well as long-term international scenarios that describe the progress of developing countries towards the Millennium Development Goals.
He is a quantitative international macroeconomist and econometrician with 15 years of management experience, leading teams of modelers, forecasters and policy analysts. Experience ranges from long-term structural analyses of the economic impact of environmental policies, trade policies and tax reforms, to short-term monitoring of the business cycle and analysis of monetary and fiscal policies.
Before joining the Bank in 1996, he was Manager of International Economic Analysis, among other positions, at the Central Planning Bureau of The Netherlands. He holds a Masters degree in econometrics from the Erasmus University in Rotterdam, and has also studied at the University of Lodz in Poland.
01. Introduction 04 min 46 secAdd to Profile
02. I. Why 2009 Turned Out Better Than Expected 00 min 36 secAdd to Profile
03. Timmer: Was it a Good Year? 02 min 06 sec
04. Dadush: Aggressive Stimulus, Healthy Asian Economies 04 min 59 sec
05. Decressin: Advanced Economies Recovering Early 02 min 55 sec
06. II. What to Expect for 2010 00 min 20 secAdd to Profile
07. Lachman: Recession May Return to US in 2010 04 min 16 sec
08. Suttle: Synchronized Upturn, Emerging Markets, Aggressive Corps 04 min 49 sec
09. Dadush: Emerging Markets, Corp Sector, Policy Support 06 min 40 sec
10. III. Advanced Versus Emerging Economies 00 min 42 sec
11. Timmer: Heterogeneity Among the Emerging Economies 04 min 36 sec
12. Lachman: Public Finance Emerging Markets, Commodity Prices 05 min 09 sec
13. Decressin: Advanced Economies' Structural Weaknesses 03 min 59 sec
14. IV. Risks to Forecasts 00 min 26 sec
15. Dadush: Underestimating Cycles, Policy Tightening, Protectionism 05 min 31 sec
16. Suttle: Oil, US Treasury, Eurozone, Banking Sector 05 min 06 sec
17. Lachman: Crisis in Eurozone, Middle East, Protectionism 05 min 03 sec
18. V. Policy Solutions 00 min 46 sec
19. Decressin: Public / Private Demand Shift 04 min 26 sec
20. Timmer: Shift Away from Stimulus, Create Long-term Industries 04 min 49 sec
21. Suttle: Forward Looking Policy, Consistency, Supply Flexibility 03 min 59 sec
22. Q1: Threat of Protectionism 05 min 47 sec
23. Q2: The Fate of the 'Ps' of Europe 05 min 41 sec
24. Q3: Commodity Prices Declining 08 min 46 sec
25. Q4: Tax Rates 04 min 05 sec
26. Q5: China Improving International Influence 06 min 46 sec
27. Q6: Growth in China Affecting Growth in US 10 min 08 sec
http://fora.tv/2010/01/05(...)erabilities_for_2010