De Beursvloer #35: Bouwers krijgen 'm wel omhoog

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Op vrijdag 9 januari 2009 14:31 schreef pberends het volgende:
09-01-2009 14:30:00 VS aantal banen dec -524.000; verwachting was -525.000
09-01-2009 14:30:00 VS werkloosheid dec 7,2%; verwachting was 7,0%

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Op vrijdag 9 januari 2009 14:45 schreef Llotyhy het volgende:
Meeste banen verloren sinds 1945. De beurs vindt het blijkbaar allemaal wel meevallen. Ik vind het toch vrij zorgwekkend, of het nou meevalt of tegenvalt ten opzichte van die verwachting van die 73 economen. Weer een half miljoen banen, weer meer werkloosheid, weer minder werktijd... en dat samen met lagere household uitgaven van de laatste tijd, klinkt als een nare spiraal die niet opgelost wordt als er 'maar' 524k banen verloren gaan.

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Op vrijdag 9 januari 2009 14:45 schreef Llotyhy het volgende:
Meeste banen verloren sinds 1945. De beurs vindt het blijkbaar allemaal wel meevallen.

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Op vrijdag 9 januari 2009 14:38 schreef pberends het volgende:
Het is weer ongelofelijk; Willem Middelkoop zei om 11.00 dat we een koersexplosie konden verwachten juist omdat iedereen pessimistisch was, en hij blijkt weer gelijk te hebben.

Uiteraard is de dag nog niet voorbij.

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Op vrijdag 9 januari 2009 14:50 schreef SjonLok het volgende:

[..]

De beurs heeft dit al ingecalculeerd. Daarom zijn ze zo hard gedaald in Oktober.

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Op vrijdag 9 januari 2009 14:52 schreef Llotyhy het volgende:

Uiteraard, maar als we maand na maand steeds een half miljoen banen verliezen in Amerika komt er toch echt een moment dat het niet meer ingecalculeerd is als de beurs langzaam door blijft stijgen...

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Op vrijdag 9 januari 2009 14:52 schreef Llotyhy het volgende:

[..]

Uiteraard, maar als we maand na maand steeds een half miljoen banen verliezen in Amerika komt er toch echt een moment dat het niet meer ingecalculeerd is als de beurs langzaam door blijft stijgen...

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Op vrijdag 9 januari 2009 15:01 schreef pberends het volgende:
http://www.rtl.nl/compone(...)willem.avi_plain.xml

12:00 uur Willem: koop oliegerelateerde posities

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Breaking news: U.S. unemployment rate rises to 7.2 percent -- the highest in 15 years -- according to U.S. Department of Labor.

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Op vrijdag 9 januari 2009 15:14 schreef star_gazer het volgende:

Bron: CNN

7.2 procent!! Ben benieuwd hoe 'goed' het gaat vandaag

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Jan. 9 (Bloomberg) -- The U.S. lost 524,000 jobs in December, making last year’s collapse in employment the worst since the end of World War II and underscoring the severity of the recession President-elect Barack Obama will inherit.

The decline in payrolls was in line with forecasts and followed a drop of 584,000 in November, bringing job losses for 2008 to 2.589 million, the most since 1945, according to a Labor Department report today in Washington. The jobless rate rose more than forecast to 7.2 percent, a 15-year high, from 6.8 percent.

The outlook for 2009 is no brighter as retailers from Wal- Mart Stores Inc. to Macy’s Inc. slash profit forecasts and manufacturers including Alcoa Inc. cut output and staff. The figures will intensify pressure on U.S. lawmakers to speed Obama’s proposed fiscal stimulus through Congress in an effort to save or create 3 million jobs.

“We’re seeing pretty ugly numbers as the recession is worsening,” Michael Gregory, a senior economist at BMO Capital Markets in Toronto, said before the report. “It’s going to be devastating in terms of consumer confidence and spending. The next couple of months will be dismal.”

Stock-index futures rose and Treasuries fell amid relief among some investors the drop in payrolls wasn’t even bigger. Futures on the Standard & Poor’s 500 Stock Index rose 0.6 percent to 912.20 at 8:34 a.m. in New York, and yields on benchmark 10- year notes were at 2.46 percent, from 2.44 percent late yesterday. The dollar was little changed at $1.3690 per euro.

Economists’ Forecasts

Payrolls were forecast to drop 525,000 after a previously reported 533,000 decline in November, according to the median estimate of 73 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News. Revisions subtracted 154,000 from payroll figures previously reported for November and October.

The jobless rate was projected to jump to 7 percent from a previously reported 6.7 percent in November.

Obama is pressing for a stimulus plan of about $775 billion, including tax cuts and spending on everything from roads and schools to the energy network. Yesterday he called for “dramatic action as soon as possible” to help pull the world’s largest economy out of a slump that’s into its second year. “If nothing is done, this recession could linger for years,” Obama said in Fairfax, Virginia.

Benchmark Revisions

With today’s report, Labor revised figures from its household survey, which includes the unemployment rate, going back five years. Benchmark revisions to the payroll figures will be announced in February.

Last month’s decline was the 12th consecutive drop in payrolls. The economy created 1.1 million jobs in 2007.

Today’s report showed factory payrolls shrank 149,000, the biggest drop since August 2001, after decreasing 104,000 in November. Economists had forecast a drop of 100,000.

The decrease included a loss of 21,400 jobs in auto and parts industries. Manufacturing, which makes up 12 percent of the economy, shrank in December at the fastest pace in 28 years, Institute for Supply Management figures showed.

Payrolls at builders dropped by 101,000 after decreasing 85,000. Financial firms reduced payrolls by 14,000, after a 28,000 loss the prior month.

Service industries, which include banks, insurance companies, restaurants and retailers, subtracted 273,000 workers after a decline of 402,000. Retail payrolls dropped by 66,600 after a 100,000 decrease.

Government Jobs

Government payrolls increased by 7,000 after falling 3,000 the prior month.

Federal Reserve staff last month cut projections for gross domestic product and the job market, stating the unemployment rate was “likely to rise significantly into 2010,” according to minutes of policy makers’ December meeting.

Job losses threaten to pull the economy into a reinforcing cycle of rising unemployment and declining household spending, what policy makers call a negative feedback loop, which is difficult to snap once it’s begun.

Wal-Mart, the world’s biggest retail chain, yesterday said fourth-quarter profit will miss its earlier forecasts after sales rose less than analysts anticipated. Macy’s said December revenue slipped 4 percent and announced it would close 11 stores.

Sales at stores open at least a year dropped 2.2 percent in the last two month months of 2008, the biggest holiday-season decline since the International Council of Shopping Centers started keeping records in 1970, the group said yesterday.

Alcoa Cuts

“These are extraordinary times, requiring speed and decisiveness to address the current economic downturn,” Klaus Kleinfeld, chief executive officer of Alcoa, said in a Jan. 6 statement announcing 13,500 job cuts worldwide. The world’s largest aluminum producer said it will trim an additional 1,700 contractor positions and froze hiring and salaries in some areas.

Some companies have taken other steps to lower costs. Caterpillar Inc., the world’s largest maker of construction equipment, will put 814 workers on an “indefinite” layoff, shipper FedEx Corp. cut the pay of Chief Executive Officer Fred Smith and other employees, and auto-parts supplier Visteon Corp. said it will trim the workweek and some salaries.

The average work week shrank to a record-low 33.3 hours from 33.5 hours, today’s figures showed. Average weekly hours worked by production workers dropped to 39.9 hours from 40.3 hours, while overtime decreased to 3 hours from 3.3 hours. That brought the average weekly earnings down by $2 to $611.39.

Workers’ average hourly wages rose 5 cents, or 0.3 percent, to $18.36 from the prior month. Hourly earnings were 3.7 percent higher than December 2007. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg had forecast a 0.2 percent increase from November and a 3.6 percent gain for the 12-month period.

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Op vrijdag 9 januari 2009 15:01 schreef pberends het volgende:
http://www.rtl.nl/compone(...)willem.avi_plain.xml

12:00 uur Willem: koop oliegerelateerde posities