Bulls, Bears & Bucks #51: Fed verlaagt rente naar 0 - 0,25%

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Bouw nieuwe woningen VS gekelderd

WASHINGTON (AFN) - De woningmarkt in de Verenigde Staten is in november dieper in het slop geraakt. Het aantal in aanbouw genomen nieuwe woningen kelderde in november met 18,9 procent omlaag tot 625.000 op jaarbasis. Dat maakte het Amerikaanse ministerie van Handel dinsdag bekend.

Het is de scherpste daling sinds maart 1984. Het cijfer is bovendien veel slechter dan verwacht. Analisten gingen in doorsnee uit van 740.000 in aanbouw genomen woningen. In oktober nam de woningbouw in de VS met een neerwaarts herziene 6,4 procent af.

Het aantal verstrekte bouwvergunningen kelderde in november met 15,6 procent tot 616.000, vergeleken met een maand eerder. Analisten rekenden op de afgifte van 700.000 vergunningen. In september ging het aantal afgegeven vergunningen al met een herziene 9,3 procent omlaag.

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Drop in consumer prices is most since 1932
Core CPI flat in the month as energy prices plunge

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- U.S. consumer prices fell in November at the fastest rate since 1932, the Labor Department reported Tuesday, as prices for energy, commodities and airline fares dropped in the month.

The U.S. consumer price index fell by a seasonally adjusted 1.7%, the department reported, the biggest drop since the government began adjusting the CPI for seasonal factors in 1947. But on a non-seasonally adjusted basis, the CPI fell by 1.9%, the biggest decline since January 1932, at the nadir of the Great Depression.

"This is scary stuff," said Mike Schenk, an economist for Credit Union National Association. "We are teetering on the brink of a massive downward spiral. Deflation is a threat." The seasonally adjusted core CPI was flat in November. Economists surveyed by MarketWatch were expecting the CPI to fall by 1.4%. They forecast that the core CPI would rise by 0.1%.

Energy prices declined by a seasonally adjusted 17%, the most since February 1957. Gasoline prices plunged by 29.5% in November, the most since the government began keeping records in February 1967. Fuel oil prices dropped by 7.2%. Commodities prices declined by 4.1% in November.

The CPI data is one of the last pieces of the economic puzzle that the Federal Reserve will have to mull before its announcement about interest rates later Tuesday. The policy-making Federal Open Market Committee is almost universally expected to cut its target for overnight interest rates to 0.5% from 1%.

U.S. stock indexes rose after the price data and data about housing starts were released Tuesday.
Over the past year, overall consumer prices have risen by 1.1%, down from their peak of 5.6% in July. Core prices have risen by 2% in the last 12 months.

Medical, food, clothing costs rise
Prices for certain goods rose in November, even as the overall number fell. Medical care prices, for example, climbed by 0.2%. They are up 2.7% in the past year. Also, food prices rose by 0.2% in November. The cost of owning a house, meanwhile, rose 0.3% in November.

Falling transportation prices contributed to the overall decline. Those prices dropped 9.8% in November, the most in 61 years. They are down 8.9% over the past year. Within transportation, new vehicle prices fell 0.6%. Airline fares, meanwhile, dropped 4%.

In a separate report on Tuesday, the Commerce Department said that housing starts fell by a whopping 18.9% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 625,000, the lowest since the department began keeping records in 1959.

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Goldman Sachs lijdt eerste verlies sinds beursgang

NEW YORK (AFN) - De Amerikaanse bank Goldman Sachs heeft in zijn vierde kwartaal van het gebroken boekjaar voor het eerst sinds de beursgang negen jaar terug een verlies geleden. Het nettoverlies kwam uit op 2,12 miljard dollar, vergeleken met een winst van 3,2 miljard dollar een jaar eerder. Dat maakte Goldman Sachs dinsdag bekend.

De resultaten in de periode tot en met 28 november stonden onder grote druk door de scherp gedaalde waarde van aandelenportefeuilles, obligaties en vastgoedbezittingen door de economische en financiële crisis. Het verlies per aandeel kwam uit op 4,97 dollar. Hier werd door analisten gerekend op een verlies van 3,73 dollar per aandeel.

“Onze resultaten over het vierde kwartaal geven de uitzonderlijk moeilijke omstandigheden weer waarin moet worden gewerkt, inclusief scherpe waardedalingen van vrijwel alle beleggingen”, aldus topman Lloyd Blankfein.

Overheidstoezicht

De 139 jaar oude bank gaf in september zijn status van zakenbank op om zo mee te mogen doen in het noodplan van 700 miljard dollar van de Amerikaanse overheid voor de financiële sector. Dat betekent wel dat de bank aan strengere regels moet voldoen en onder strikter overheidstoezicht komt te staan. Goldman Sachs ging in 1999 naar de beurs in New York.

Om de financiële crisis te doorstaan, heeft Goldman Sachs een kapitaalinjectie van 10 miljard dollar van de overheid gekregen. Verder nam superbelegger Warren Buffett in september voor 5 miljard dollar een belang in de bank. Ook ontslaat het concern 10 procent van het personeel en ziet de directie af van bonussen voor dit jaar. Het aandeel Goldman Sachs is dit jaar ongeveer 70 procent in waarde gedaald.

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Op dinsdag 16 december 2008 17:08 schreef Drugshond het volgende:
En straks nog het rentebesluit....
[ afbeelding ]
En dan kijken wat de dollar gaat doen.

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Op dinsdag 16 december 2008 17:24 schreef SeLang het volgende:
Dit bloopertje is tegenwoordig erg populair op de Britse TV

Gordon Brown saves the World at PMQs 10th December 2008

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FOMC cuts rate 0.75 percentage point to 0.25%, use all tools

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - The Federal Open Market Committee Tuesday lowered its target for overnight interest rates by three quarters of one percent to a record low 0.25%. At the same time, the central bank released a statement that signaled an aggressive posture. It said it would keep rates low "for some time" and continue to expand its balance sheet to stabilize the economy. The vote to lower the Fed funds rate was unanimous. The move was expected as economic data over the last two months has show a sharp drop in activity.

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Text of Fed statement

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - The Federal Open Market Committee released the following statement Tuesday after its meeting.

For immediate release

The Federal Open Market Committee decided today to establish a target range for the federal funds rate of 0 to 1/4 percent.

Since the Committee's last meeting, labor market conditions have deteriorated, and the available data indicate that consumer spending, business investment, and industrial production have declined. Financial markets remain quite strained and credit conditions tight. Overall, the outlook for economic activity has weakened further.

Meanwhile, inflationary pressures have diminished appreciably. In light of the declines in the prices of energy and other commodities and the weaker prospects for economic activity, the Committee expects inflation to moderate further in coming quarters.

The Federal Reserve will employ all available tools to promote the resumption of sustainable economic growth and to preserve price stability. In particular, the Committee anticipates that weak economic conditions are likely to warrant exceptionally low levels of the federal funds rate for some time.

The focus of the Committee's policy going forward will be to support the functioning of financial markets and stimulate the economy through open market operations and other measures that sustain the size of the Federal Reserve's balance sheet at a high level. As previously announced, over the next few quarters the Federal Reserve will purchase large quantities of agency debt and mortgage-backed securities to provide support to the mortgage and housing markets, and it stands ready to expand its purchases of agency debt and mortgage-backed securities as conditions warrant. The Committee is also evaluating the potential benefits of purchasing longer-term Treasury securities. Early next year, the Federal Reserve will also implement the Term Asset-Backed Securities Loan Facility to facilitate the extension of credit to households and small businesses. The Federal Reserve will continue to consider ways of using its balance sheet to further support credit markets and economic activity.

Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Ben S. Bernanke, Chairman; Christine M. Cumming; Elizabeth A. Duke; Richard W. Fisher; Donald L. Kohn; Randall S. Kroszner; Sandra Pianalto; Charles I. Plosser; Gary H. Stern; and Kevin M. Warsh.

In a related action, the Board of Governors unanimously approved a 75-basis-point decrease in the discount rate to 1/2 percent. In taking this action, the Board approved the requests submitted by the Boards of Directors of the Federal Reserve Banks of New York, Cleveland, Richmond, Atlanta, Minneapolis, and San Francisco. The Board also established interest rates on required and excess reserve balances of 1/4 percent.

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Op dinsdag 16 december 2008 21:36 schreef SeLang het volgende:
Overigens lekker slecht voor Europese bedrijven. De US$ gaat weer door het putje en de ECB heeft aangegeven erg terughoudend te zijn met verdere renteverlagingen. Waarschijnlijk in januari nog een keer en dan pauze.