Bulls, Bears & Bucks #50: Het uur van de waarheid

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Op maandag 1 december 2008 13:24 schreef Lemans24 het volgende:
Holiday Season als geheel zorgt voor 40% van de verkoop, meen ik ergens gelezen te hebben.

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Op maandag 1 december 2008 13:44 schreef pberends het volgende:

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ohhhhhh

Das nog erg veel eigenlijk, dat betekent dat Amerikanen dus helemaal niet zoveel shoppen het rest van het jaar .

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My Own Private Bailout
Jordan Stein Nov 14, 2008 11:35 am

The author applies to become bank holding company.



Pick Stocks That Win

Call it Hurricane Louis.

Over the course of the last 8 years, designer handbags ceased to be the exclusive province of the wealthy: Tweens strutted up and down the aisles of American Eagle Outfitters (AEO), tightly clutching their very own Louis Vuitton handbags.

Maybe they got them for Christmas. Or their birthdays. Maybe 10 people went in on the gift, so that $1200 price tag is misleading. It's hardly the point.

So what is? The American consumer, the world's least disciplined, took a good, hard look at the increasingly conspicuous consumption of the well-to-do and decided they, too, wanted a piece of the action. Luxury goods became a mainstream pursuit.

Marketers got wise to this groundswell of entitlement. Las Vegas, once ground zero for swashbuckling motifs and Egyptian ambiance, made luxury its theme du jour. It used to be you could get a room in Sin City on the cheap; now, guests jockeyed for the AAA Five-Diamond service of Bellagio.

We've spent our way into this mess; now the government is determined to spend our way out. But why should troubled financial services companies like Goldman Sachs (GS) and Morgan Stanley (MS) have all the fun? I went to Vegas, ate at Nobu, partook of all kinds of activities I couldn't afford - I want to be rewarded for the gross mismanagement of my finances, too.

So I'm converting myself to a bank holding company.

It's a strategic move that will allow me to accept deposits, which is pretty cool (I'll have to award interest to my depositors, of course, but that will fluctuate according to how deep and how often the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates, so I should be in the clear). But, more importantly, it will make me eligible for a piece of the $700 billion bailout.

The way I see it, all I have to do is prove that I made some really irresponsible decisions, that I failed to spot trends and get out ahead of emerging technology, that I basically continued to operate like I was permanently stuck in 2004, when cheap money padded everybody's bottom line - and that I never, ever, once considered the possibility that the good times wouldn't roll in perpetuity.

Here's a detailed ledger of the poor decision-making I plan to parlay into a healthy bailout, er, loan:



Instead of investing what little capital I had saved over the years, I bought cool Berluti boots (only $2400) for me and lots and lots of Stoli Vanilla and Cokes for girls who work in PR.


An apartment with a Sub-Zero fridge I totally can't afford. Like, not even close.


Five straight years of paying the minimum balance on 4 credit cards.


When the chef who used to cook at Blue Mountain Grill, which made the best $22 mac-n-cheese with truffle oil, went out on his own and opened Upstairs Lafayette 426, I just had to go. Cost notwithstanding, it was so worth it. I totally saw the cast of Gossip Girl munching on the signature bone-marrow bruschetta.
I'm confident the Federal Reserve will recognize the "emergency conditions" at play here -- along with the "unusual and exigent circumstances" of my situation -- and process my application posthaste, as it did with American Express (AXP).

That would be the same American Express that only days ago carried a dose of snob appeal: Its renowned Black Card boasts a limitless limit that gives traders and hedge-fund managers a special tingly feeling in their privates.

GMAC, the financial arm of embattled automaker General Motors (GM), which provides automotive financing and insurance, has also applied. Its parent company thought it would be way more awesome to keep manufacturing Hummers than embrace this kind-of-gay alternative energy thing, so it more than qualifies for a handout.

Since the criteria really seem to center on who screwed up most, I'm more than a little optimistic that the Fed will fast-track my application.

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Op maandag 1 december 2008 14:34 schreef simmu het volgende:
en nog gewoon een leuke:
[..]

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Op maandag 1 december 2008 16:37 schreef rvlaak_werk het volgende:
Ford weighs selling Volvo amid industry downturn

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Analist voorziet implosie Amerikaanse creditcards



01-12-2008 | Gepubliceerd 15:16
01-12-2008 | Laatst bijgewerkt 17:59

De Amerikaanse kerstverkopen gingen dit weekend voortvarend van start. Maar volgens topanalist Meredith Whitney krijgen Amerikanen de komende anderhalf jaar tweeduizend miljard dollar minder krediet op hun creditcards.

Het goede nieuws is dat Amerikanen in het eerste weekend in aanloop naar de kerst diep in de buidel hebben getast, zo meldde The Wall Street Journal maandag, op basis van de eerste gegevens over de kerstverkopen.

Volgens brancheorganisatie The National Retail Federation gaven Amerikanen die kerstinkopen deden afgelopen weekend, gemiddeld 372,57 dollar per persoon uit. Dat is 7,2 procent meer dan een jaar geleden.

De voorkeur ging duidelijk uit naar prijskrakers. Naar schatting ging het bij ruim tweederde van de aankopen om ultra-goedkope aanbiedingen, schatte America's Research Group.

Daarbij komt het slechte nieuws. Bijna 40 procent van de kopers gaf volgens peilingen van The National Retail Federation aan dat ze afgelopen weekend het grootste deel van de vakantie-inkopen hadden gedaan, tegen 36,4 procent in 2007.

Als die inschatting nauwkeurig is, belooft dat weinig goeds voor de rest van het kerstseizoen. Beleggers knepen 'm alvast, want maandagmiddag openden de beurzen op Wall Street duidelijk lager.

Naast de berichten over de kerstverkopen, speelde ook een rapport van steranalist Meredith Whitney van Oppenheimer & Co. een rol. Whitney maakte in 2007 naam als 'de vrouw van 15 miljard', toen ze in oktober van dat jaar aangaf dat financieel conglomeraat Citigroup miljarden extra zou moeten afschrijven op hypotheekbeleggingen in verband met de kredietcrisis.

Whitney stelde maandag in een nieuwe analyse dat er een scherpe terugval van de consumentenbestedingen in de Verenigde Staten zit aan te komen. In de komende anderhalve jaar zullen Amerikaanse creditcardmaatschappijen voor tweeduizend miljard dollar aan kredietlijnen terugtrekken, een krimp van 45 procent, zo voorspelt Whitney.

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Bernanke Says Fed May Buy Treasuries to Aid Economy

Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke said he has “obviously limited” room to lower interest rates further and may use less conventional policies, such as buying Treasury securities, to revive the economy.

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Debt monetization

Debt monetization occurs when a nation's central bank (e.g. the Federal Reserve in the United States) buys government bonds. [1] If a government's expenses exceed its tax revenue, if nothing is done the government will draw resources (capital) out of the private market. Since there is a limited amount of capital available in the market, there will be less available to fund business growth if the government takes out a substantial portion. If the debt is monetized, the capital is thereby returned to the private market.

Debt monetization can be seen as a flat tax because the ultimate result is that the government acquires additional funds and the currency decreases in value.

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Op maandag 1 december 2008 18:03 schreef Dave7 het volgende:

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Iemand die hier het "gokje" waagt aandelen te kopen voor de bailout? Als het allemaal normaal verloopt zal ford aankomende week nog flink up gaan!

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Amerika blijkt al vanaf begin 2008 in recessie

RTL Z-beurscommentator Willem Middelkoop hamert er al jaren op: geloof de statistieken over de Amerikaanse economie nooit zomaar. En weer heeft Willem gelijk: Amerika blijkt toch al een jaar in recessie.

Krimp?
De Amerikaanse officiële cijfers geven momenteel nog steeds geen recessie in de economie aan, maar nu geeft het Nationale Bureau van Economisch Onderzoek (NBER), een onderzoeksbureau van de overheid dat de economische cycli in de gaten houdt, opeens toe dat de Amerikaanse economie al sinds het begin van het jaar in recessie is.

Stelselmatig
De statistieken in Amerika worden stelselmatig met terugwerkende kracht naar beneden bijgesteld. Structureel wordt bijvoorbeeld de arbeidsmarkt en de huizenmarkt te positief voorgesteld. Later volgt dan bij de definitieve cijfers vaak een enorme neerwaartse correctie. Die cijfers worden dan veel minder opgepakt dan de oorspronkelijke cijfers en hebben veel minder impact op het vertrouwen van consumenten en bedrijven.

Het hele jaar krimp
Volgens het NBER eindigde in december vorig jaar de economische groei. Daarna begon de economie te krimpen, waarmee een einde kwam aan 73 maanden economische expansie. De voorgaande groeiperiode in de jaren negentig duurde 120 maanden.

Definitieve cijfers
Het NBER baseert zijn oordeel onder meer op de definitieve banencijfers, detailhandelsdata en de industriële productiedata van het afgelopen jaar. Officieel is er sprake van een recessie na twee kwartalen van economische krimp, kwartaal op kwartaal. Amerika zit dus al een flinke tijd in een recessie.

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Op dinsdag 2 december 2008 06:56 schreef indahnesia.com het volgende:
Goh, toch al een recessie van een jaar bijna. Gelukkig komen deze cijfers nu al naar buiten en verdwijnen ze niet helemaal in de doofpot tot ze weer opgepoetst zijn.

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laatst gewijzigd: 02-12-2008 15:27

Fortis-top diep door het stof in de hel van Brussel



De aandeelhoudersvergadering van Fortis in Brussel verloopt nog veel rumoeriger dan die in Nederland. Voorgedragen bestuurder Bodson kan zijn tranen niet bedwingen.

Gevangenis
Vergeleken met de AVA in Brussel was die in Nederland maar een tamme bedoening. In de hel van Brussel gaan de Fortis-bestuurders de confontatie aan met woedende aandeelhouders. 'Naar de gevangenis' krijgt de Fortis-top te horen. Plaatsvervangend voorzitter Jan Michiel Hessels moest door de striemende fluitconcerten soms stoppen met zijn toespraak.

Metaaldetector
De omstandigheden zijn dusdanig dat er strenge veiligheidsmaatregelen zijn genomen. Aandeelhouders moeten door een metaaldetector.

Weg oude dag
Vele duizenden kleine aandeelhouders zijn hun spaarcenten kwijt. Fortis was in België een volksaandeel, meer nog, een huisvaderaandeel, oftewel een weduwen- en wezenfonds, vergelijkbaar met Koninklijke Olie in Nederland.

Stemmen
Volgens Fortis zijn dinsdag 5.524 aandeelhouders aanwezig op de vergadering. Er hadden zich zesduizend Fortis-beleggers aangemeld. De Belgische aandeelhouders kunnen dinsdag, net als de Nederlanders maandag, stemmen over de bestuursleden die Fortis naar voren heeft geschoven.

Nipte meerderheid
Maandag kregen drie van de vijf bestuursleden een nipte meerderheid van de stemmen, namelijk Etienne Davignon, Cheung Chi Yan en Karel de Boeck. Ook dinsdag moeten zij alle drie een meerderheid van de stemmen halen, wil het bestuur in deze vorm doorgaan.

Alternatieven
De Belgische tegenhanger van de Vereniging van Effectenbezitters (VEB), Deminor, vroeg tijdens de vergadering of er gestemd kan worden op een alternatieve lijst met bestuurders. De belangenvereniging kreeg veel applaus uit de zaal. Het antwoord van vice-voorzitter Jan-Michiel Hessels was echter duidelijk: ,,Nee." In dit alternatieve bestuur zou Georges Ugeux voorzitter orden, een bedrijfsadviseur die voor het laatst werkzaam was bij de New York Stock Exchange.

Nieuwe vergadering
Dinsdag kan niet worden gestemd over de continuïteit van Fortis. Hiervoor zijn niet genoeg leden aanwezig bij de vergadering. Op 19 december is nu nog een bijzondere aandeelhoudersvergadering gepland.

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Mortgage Security Holder Stands-Up - Could Cost BofA $80 Billion

Just a few months after the Attorneys General of 15 states threw hundreds of thousands of Countrywide/Bank of America mortgagees under the bus with a piddly $8.4 billion settlement, someone is striking back. And Greenwich has the size, background and relationships to actually get somewhere.

In all of the recent events surrounding bailouts and loan modifications, one very prominent party in this whole mess has been missing - the mortgage security (MBS) holders. Not any longer. With $7 trillion in securitized mortgages out there, this could be the very first of a major story unfolding over the next year. One in which the MBS holders finally stand up and banks, investment banks and mortgage lenders become ultimately responsible for the loans that they made and eat their own trash.

Securitization massively expanded home ownership in recent years by allowing investors to price the risk of less credit-worthy borrowers. But investors in some of the prime securities are angry about having to foot the bill for reworking the most risky mortgages. The chief risk manager for a mortgage investment company, who spoke on condition of anonymity, said that BofA isn’t paying for the modifications out of its own pocket, but “out of the bondholders’ money. That’s pretty egregious

The legality of that structure—and the impact of any changes on bondholders—weren’t the top priorities of the attorneys general of California, Illinois, and at least five other states that last summer filed lawsuits accusing Countrywide of violating laws against predatory lending. Their complaints allege that Countrywide engaged in many deceptive sales practices, charged unlawful fees and interest rates, and made mortgage loans that Countrywide had no reasonable basis to think the borrowers could afford. All of that, the states claimed, was in violation of predatory lending laws.

Bank of America/Countrywide Slap on the Hand

The AG’s say their $8.4 billion ‘victory’ will help some 400k homeowners. When you do the math, the measly $21k per homeowner is barely enough to cover a few months back payments, penalties, modification fees and unpaid property taxes. How the AG’s could settle for something this small claiming ‘victory’ is beyond me. In CA where much of this ‘relief’ will go, the median home price is down from $484k in the summer of 2007 to $278k today. That is a lot of negative equity of which none was factored into this settlement.

I have been waiting for backlash over this Bank of America hand slap from either a mortgagee rights or securities owners group with all of the talk by the banks, regulators and lawmakers of a full court mortgage modification press and here it is. This is the first of what could be many. Remember, 80%+ of all mortgage loans originated during the ‘fake years’ were sold and securitized making it very difficult for a bank, servicer or even the FDIC to modify the loan.

Wide-Scale Mortgage Modification Efforts Impotent

As of now wide-scale mortgage modification efforts are more talk than reality because of the securitization challenges, borrowers ability to qualify, prohibitive present house values and borrowers willingness to stay leveraged to a massively depreciating asset vs. renting. American Banker recently put out a story highlighting that this issue. Other reports show that the after-modification recidivism rate is well over 50%. This is a lose/lose for MBS holders.

“For the most part, public discussion of modifications has focused on the ability and willingness of servicers and investors to make them. For several reasons, including the still undeveloped track record for modifications, less attention has been paid to the outcomes of those that have gotten done.

A handful of analysts and academics who have studied which types of loan modifications work have found that some of the most common changes — reducing or freezing the interest rate and allowing missed payments to be rolled into the balance — often fail to prevent the borrower from defaulting again. “

I have been one of the most outspoken mortgage modification supporters for over a year, but ONLY if done right. The problem is that none announced to date are structured properly with most relying on low teaser rates, 40-year terms or deferred interest and high debt-to-income ratios, which are the very things that got us here in the first place.

I am in firm belief that the only successful mortgage modification is one where the loan is re-underwritten / restructured using a market-rate 30-year fixed mortgage at 28/36% debt-to-income ratios. To get there, a principal balance reduction will likely be necessary in most cases. But the process will allow home-owners to operate at leverage ratios that greatly reduce the chances of walking away due to negative-equity permanently solving the problem. Please see my most recent report on mortgage modifications:

* The Great Mortgage Modification Pump - GOD SAVE US ALL! (248)

Bank of America / Countrywide Could Pay $80 BILLION!

Greenwich Financial Services, a very large fund that has been a leader in the mortgage securitization arena is raising a stink - don’t they deserve a bailout too? Why should the banks get bailed out from all of their bad decisions over the past decade and the mortgage securities holders that never signed up for buying a bunch of bad loans, get left holding the bag? They may not if Greenwich is successful.

In the proposed class action, or group lawsuit, the Greenwich, Connecticut-based fund demands a declaration that “Countrywide must purchase at par every mortgage loan that it sold to any of the 374 securitization trusts,” David Grais, a lawyer for the fund said today in an e-mailed statement. Grais said Countrywide could owe $80 billion to the trusts.

Countrywide plans not to absorb the $8.4 billion reduction in mortgage payments itself, even though it was Countrywide’s own conduct of which the attorneys general complained,” the fund said in the complaint filed today in New York State Supreme Court in Manhattan. Under the settlement, the mortgage lender would “pass most or all of that reduction on to the trusts that purchased mortgage loans from Countrywide,” the fund said in the complaint.

“We believe that the average unpaid principal balance of these loans is approximately $200,000. If so, and if the court grants the declaration we seek in this complaint, then Countrywide (and its parent Bank of America) would be liable to pay the trusts approximately $80 billion for the loans it modifies,” he said.

MBS Holders Have Been Left in the Lurch

The mortgage securities holders being left to fend for themselves over the past year and a half of the mortgage implosion is one of the reasons that the private label sector has never come back. If left going the way it presently is, the mortgage finance and housing sectors may stay depressed indefinitely.

While those loan adjustments may help to keep struggling borrowers in their homes today, Frey says those alterations run the risk of permanently damaging the secondary market for housing finance.

“I am an advocate for investors’ contractual rights,” says Frey, 50, in an interview. He has publicly argued since March that loan modifications (BusinessWeek, 11/26/08) are against contract law, and has threatened to sue banks—despite, he says, receiving pressure to back down from Washington. “Investors’ voices have been muted in this debate because they speak of an inconvenient truth: Current solutions sacrifice the long-term viability of this nation’s housing finance system for short-term political gain. No matter how noble the intent, it is not in the interest of the United States now, or in the future, to tell its citizens and the world at large that U.S. contract rights may be bent with the political winds.”

MBS Litigation Floodgates

If Greenwich has even reasonable success it will open the litigation floodgates. The end result could look like something that I have been noodling for a couple of years…that in the end the bank, investment bank, lender etc eats their own trash.

Frey says a more reasonable, albeit unpopular, solution would be for the government—that is, taxpayers—to ante up another $500 billion to buy all of the troubled loans from mortgage-backed securities pools in order to keep the public market for financing mortgages viable. (There have been roughly $7 trillion in mortgages financed by global public markets since 2002, according to ThomsonReuters. Of course, not all of those loans are troubled.)

While he’s so far the only member of the proposed class against the Charlotte (N.C.)-based BofA, Frey says he’s on a crusade on behalf of all large investors who bought Triple A-rated mortgage bonds, and not just those who bought bonds backed by Countrywide mortgages. The suit alleges that modifications favor bondholders who bought the riskiest pieces. Normally those investors should suffer losses first, but that’s not what’s happening in the current wave of workouts, according to the suit.

Stay tuned because this story is only getting started.

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Op dinsdag 2 december 2008 16:23 schreef pberends het volgende:

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http://www.rtl.nl/compone(...)fortis.avi_plain.xml
http://www.rtl.nl/(/finan(...)de_fortis_topman.xml

Een van de Fortis-topmannen moest zelfs huilen.

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Op dinsdag 2 december 2008 16:23 schreef pberends het volgende:
Een van de Fortis-topmannen moest zelfs huilen.

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Op dinsdag 2 december 2008 16:34 schreef Lemmeb het volgende:

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Het hele gebeuren is in wezen ook dieptriest. Families die hun volledige familiefortuin zien verdampen, bejaarden die hun complete oudedagsvoorziening in rook op zien gaan. Vooral dat laatste.

Het is dat het Belgen zijn, en we er dus om kunnen lachen. Anders zou ik een inzamelingsactie starten: "Help onze senioeren de winter door!"