WGR Werk, Geldzaken, Recht en de Beurs
Hier kun je alles kwijt over sollicitaties, werksituaties, belastingen, (handelen op) de beurs, hypotheken, beleggingen en salarissen, arbeidscontracten of geschillen met je (huis)baas. Alles over werk, geldzaken en recht dus.
Shanghai Index May Drop 25% on Economy, Xie Says (Update1)
By Allen Wan and Erik Schatzker
Sept. 1 (Bloomberg) -- The Shanghai Composite Index, the world’s worst performer in August, may fall another 25 percent as China’s economic recovery isn’t “sustainable,” former Morgan Stanley Asian economist Andy Xie said.
The measure plunged 6.7 percent to 2,667.75 yesterday, the most since June 2008, and entered a bear market on concern a slower lending growth may derail a rebound in the world’s third- largest economy. Xie said the index “should be 2000 or less.”
“The market is in deep bubble territory,” Xie, 49, who correctly predicted in April 2007 that China’s equities would tumble, said in an interview with Bloomberg Television.
China’s retreat sent the MSCI World Index of 23 developed nations down 0.8 percent, while MSCI’s emerging-market index lost 1.5 percent, the biggest drop in two weeks. The Bank of New York Mellon China ADR Index, tracking American depositary receipts of Chinese shares, lost 2.3 percent, led by commodity producers.
The Shanghai gauge slumped 22 percent in August, the biggest decline among 89 benchmark indexes tracked by Bloomberg, as banks reined in lending to avert asset bubbles and policy makers advised industries such as steel and cement to curb overcapacity. The decline stopped a rally that had sent the measure up 103 percent from a November low on prospects the government’s 4 trillion yuan ($586 billion) stimulus program and a record amount of new credit would ensure the economy grows at least 8 percent this year.
Strong Numbers
“The local market bears are convinced that tightening is already underway,” said Howard Wang, head of the Greater China team at JF Asset Management, which oversees $50 billion. Only “a very strong set of macro numbers in August” or “stronger statements from central authorities” would change this trend, Wang said.
Still, Chinese stocks are trading at the steepest discount in the world compared with analysts’ price targets after the month-long slump. The gap of 13 percent below analysts’ combined price targets is the largest among the world’s 10 largest markets, data compiled by Bloomberg show.
Equities in China remain “a bright spot” among global stocks because of the nation’s strong growth potential, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. said yesterday.
‘Exit Strategy’
“We think the market concerns about a near-term ‘exit strategy’ appear premature as the government remains pro- growth,” Thomas Deng and Kinger Lau, analysts at Goldman Sachs, wrote in a research note.
Goldman Sachs has boosted its growth forecasts for China’s economy to 9.4 percent this year from an earlier estimate of 8.3 percent, it said in the note. Gross domestic product may increase 11.9 percent in 2010, higher than an earlier estimate of 10.9 percent, it added.
The People’s Bank of China will also have “very limited room” to raise interest rates by the end of this year, Deng and Lau wrote.
“The A share market is undergoing a correction rather than a bursting of the bubble,” said Richard Gao, who helps manage $2.8 billion at Matthews International Capital Management LCC in San Francisco. “Short term trading will be very volatile but we believe a strong economic recovery is underway in China and remain quite positive on the long-term growth potential.”
The government will maintain its fiscal and monetary policies because the economy faces many “uncertainties,” Premier Wen Jiabao said this month. Economic growth will slow in the fourth quarter as exports remain mired in a slump, Xie said.
“The recovery is not sustainable,” Xie, who resigned as Morgan Stanley’s chief economist in Asia in 2006 and now works as an independent economist, said in the interview yesterday from Shanghai.
Expectations
“This is a short-term negative,” said E. William Stone, who oversees $101 billion as chief investment strategist at PNC Wealth Management in Philadelphia. “Expectations have been too high that China would be a driver of everything. Much has to come out of the expectations balloon.”
At least 150 stocks on the 898-member Shanghai index dropped by the daily 10 percent limit. Industrial Bank Co. and Aluminum Corp. of China Ltd. tumbled by the permitted cap after Caijing magazine reported new loan growth this month may be almost half that of July. Lower profits dragged Baoshan Iron & Steel Co., the nation’s biggest steelmaker, and China Southern Airlines Co. down at least 7 percent.
The Shanghai index trades at 29.39 times reported earnings, according to Bloomberg data. The MSCI Emerging Markets Index, a 22-country benchmark, trades for 18.9 times profit.
New Loans Drop
China may have 200 billion yuan of new loans in August, the Beijing-based Caijing reported today on its Web site. That compares with 7.4 trillion yuan for the first half of 2009 and 355.9 billion yuan in July alone. The government plans to tighten capital requirements for financial institutions, three people familiar with the matter said this month.
An estimated 1.16 trillion yuan of loans were invested in stocks in the first five months of this year, China Business News reported June 29, citing Wei Jianing, a deputy director at the Development and Research Center under the State Council.
“The government is now pulling the plug on liquidity,” said Xie, who is a guest columnist for Caijing. “Hopefully, it’s not too late.”
===============================================================================
Daar is het dus ff ook niet rozengeur en maneschijn.
By Allen Wan and Erik Schatzker
Sept. 1 (Bloomberg) -- The Shanghai Composite Index, the world’s worst performer in August, may fall another 25 percent as China’s economic recovery isn’t “sustainable,” former Morgan Stanley Asian economist Andy Xie said.
The measure plunged 6.7 percent to 2,667.75 yesterday, the most since June 2008, and entered a bear market on concern a slower lending growth may derail a rebound in the world’s third- largest economy. Xie said the index “should be 2000 or less.”
“The market is in deep bubble territory,” Xie, 49, who correctly predicted in April 2007 that China’s equities would tumble, said in an interview with Bloomberg Television.
China’s retreat sent the MSCI World Index of 23 developed nations down 0.8 percent, while MSCI’s emerging-market index lost 1.5 percent, the biggest drop in two weeks. The Bank of New York Mellon China ADR Index, tracking American depositary receipts of Chinese shares, lost 2.3 percent, led by commodity producers.
The Shanghai gauge slumped 22 percent in August, the biggest decline among 89 benchmark indexes tracked by Bloomberg, as banks reined in lending to avert asset bubbles and policy makers advised industries such as steel and cement to curb overcapacity. The decline stopped a rally that had sent the measure up 103 percent from a November low on prospects the government’s 4 trillion yuan ($586 billion) stimulus program and a record amount of new credit would ensure the economy grows at least 8 percent this year.
Strong Numbers
“The local market bears are convinced that tightening is already underway,” said Howard Wang, head of the Greater China team at JF Asset Management, which oversees $50 billion. Only “a very strong set of macro numbers in August” or “stronger statements from central authorities” would change this trend, Wang said.
Still, Chinese stocks are trading at the steepest discount in the world compared with analysts’ price targets after the month-long slump. The gap of 13 percent below analysts’ combined price targets is the largest among the world’s 10 largest markets, data compiled by Bloomberg show.
Equities in China remain “a bright spot” among global stocks because of the nation’s strong growth potential, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. said yesterday.
‘Exit Strategy’
“We think the market concerns about a near-term ‘exit strategy’ appear premature as the government remains pro- growth,” Thomas Deng and Kinger Lau, analysts at Goldman Sachs, wrote in a research note.
Goldman Sachs has boosted its growth forecasts for China’s economy to 9.4 percent this year from an earlier estimate of 8.3 percent, it said in the note. Gross domestic product may increase 11.9 percent in 2010, higher than an earlier estimate of 10.9 percent, it added.
The People’s Bank of China will also have “very limited room” to raise interest rates by the end of this year, Deng and Lau wrote.
“The A share market is undergoing a correction rather than a bursting of the bubble,” said Richard Gao, who helps manage $2.8 billion at Matthews International Capital Management LCC in San Francisco. “Short term trading will be very volatile but we believe a strong economic recovery is underway in China and remain quite positive on the long-term growth potential.”
The government will maintain its fiscal and monetary policies because the economy faces many “uncertainties,” Premier Wen Jiabao said this month. Economic growth will slow in the fourth quarter as exports remain mired in a slump, Xie said.
“The recovery is not sustainable,” Xie, who resigned as Morgan Stanley’s chief economist in Asia in 2006 and now works as an independent economist, said in the interview yesterday from Shanghai.
Expectations
“This is a short-term negative,” said E. William Stone, who oversees $101 billion as chief investment strategist at PNC Wealth Management in Philadelphia. “Expectations have been too high that China would be a driver of everything. Much has to come out of the expectations balloon.”
At least 150 stocks on the 898-member Shanghai index dropped by the daily 10 percent limit. Industrial Bank Co. and Aluminum Corp. of China Ltd. tumbled by the permitted cap after Caijing magazine reported new loan growth this month may be almost half that of July. Lower profits dragged Baoshan Iron & Steel Co., the nation’s biggest steelmaker, and China Southern Airlines Co. down at least 7 percent.
The Shanghai index trades at 29.39 times reported earnings, according to Bloomberg data. The MSCI Emerging Markets Index, a 22-country benchmark, trades for 18.9 times profit.
New Loans Drop
China may have 200 billion yuan of new loans in August, the Beijing-based Caijing reported today on its Web site. That compares with 7.4 trillion yuan for the first half of 2009 and 355.9 billion yuan in July alone. The government plans to tighten capital requirements for financial institutions, three people familiar with the matter said this month.
An estimated 1.16 trillion yuan of loans were invested in stocks in the first five months of this year, China Business News reported June 29, citing Wei Jianing, a deputy director at the Development and Research Center under the State Council.
“The government is now pulling the plug on liquidity,” said Xie, who is a guest columnist for Caijing. “Hopefully, it’s not too late.”
===============================================================================
Daar is het dus ff ook niet rozengeur en maneschijn.
Markets hit by China commodity default
Monday, August 31 12:48:54
A report that Chinese state-owned companies will be allowed to walk away from loss-making commodity derivative trades provoked anger and dismay among investment bankers on Monday as they feared it may set a damaging precedent.
The State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission, the regulator and nominal shareholder for state-owned enterprises (SOEs), told six foreign banks that SOEs reserved the right to default on contracts, Caijing magazine quoted an unnamed industry source as saying in an article published on Saturday.
While the details of the report could not be confirmed, it was Monday's hot topic in financial circles from Shanghai to Singapore as commodity marketers feared that companies holding underwater price hedges could simply renege on the deals, costing banks millions of dollars in profit.
The warning from SASAC follows a series of measures from Beijing this year to crack down on the sale of derivative products by foreign banks to Chinese enterprises, principally big consumers, who bought protection against higher prices last year only to watch the market collapse -- leaving them with losses.
While many companies including top airlines have come clean on the losses, some analysts fear another wave may follow.
"I wouldn't be surprised if more state firms emerge with big derivatives trading losses, otherwise SASAC wouldn't come out with such a radical move," said a Hong Kong-based derivatives analyst, who like most other industry officials and bankers declined to be named due to the high sensitivity of the issue.
A SASAC media official said on Monday that he was waiting for the "relevant department's" official comment before he can clarify to media. A government official said that the Bureau of Financial Supervision and Evaluation under SASAC was handling the issue. The official declined to be named and did not elaborate.
Spokespersons at Goldman Sachs and UBS declined comment, and media officials at Morgan Stanley and JPMorgan were not immediately available for comment. All are major global providers of commodity risk management.
No bank were named in the Caijing report. The SASAC media officer also declined to identify any specific banks.
"It's a handful of companies who are being encouraged by regulators to re-negotiate," said a second banking source. "It's outrageous, but it's China, so everyone is treading very carefully."
For banks that are hoping to sell more derivatives hedges in China, the world's fastest-expanding major economy and top commodities consumer, the danger goes beyond the immediate risk to existing contracts to the longer-term precedent that suggests Chinese companies can simply renege on deals when they like.
The report follows an order from SASAC in July that required all central government-controlled state companies engaged in trading derivatives to make quarterly reports about their investments, including details of holdings and performance.
But the reported letter opened several important questions that could not immediately be answered. "If we were among the banks receiving that letter, we would be very angry. But now the key is to find out more details on the letter: In whose name the letter was issued, the government or the corporate's? And under what was the reason for defaulting?" said a Singapore-based marketing executive with a foreign bank.
The source, whose bank did not receive a letter, said that Air China, China Eastern and shipping giant COSCO - among the Chinese companies that have reported huge derivatives losses since last year - had issued almost identical notices to banks.
"If it's in the name of the government, the impact will be very negative," said the source, who declined to be named.
Beijing-based derivatives lawyers said the so-called "legal letter" has no legal standing -- SASAC as a shareholder has no business relationship with international banks.
"It's like the father suddenly told the creditors of his debt-ridden son that his son won't pay any of his debt," said a lawyer from the derivatives risks committee of the Beijing Lawyers Association. (C ) Reuters
============================================================================
Rules there are no rules in China.
Monday, August 31 12:48:54
A report that Chinese state-owned companies will be allowed to walk away from loss-making commodity derivative trades provoked anger and dismay among investment bankers on Monday as they feared it may set a damaging precedent.
The State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission, the regulator and nominal shareholder for state-owned enterprises (SOEs), told six foreign banks that SOEs reserved the right to default on contracts, Caijing magazine quoted an unnamed industry source as saying in an article published on Saturday.
While the details of the report could not be confirmed, it was Monday's hot topic in financial circles from Shanghai to Singapore as commodity marketers feared that companies holding underwater price hedges could simply renege on the deals, costing banks millions of dollars in profit.
The warning from SASAC follows a series of measures from Beijing this year to crack down on the sale of derivative products by foreign banks to Chinese enterprises, principally big consumers, who bought protection against higher prices last year only to watch the market collapse -- leaving them with losses.
While many companies including top airlines have come clean on the losses, some analysts fear another wave may follow.
"I wouldn't be surprised if more state firms emerge with big derivatives trading losses, otherwise SASAC wouldn't come out with such a radical move," said a Hong Kong-based derivatives analyst, who like most other industry officials and bankers declined to be named due to the high sensitivity of the issue.
A SASAC media official said on Monday that he was waiting for the "relevant department's" official comment before he can clarify to media. A government official said that the Bureau of Financial Supervision and Evaluation under SASAC was handling the issue. The official declined to be named and did not elaborate.
Spokespersons at Goldman Sachs and UBS declined comment, and media officials at Morgan Stanley and JPMorgan were not immediately available for comment. All are major global providers of commodity risk management.
No bank were named in the Caijing report. The SASAC media officer also declined to identify any specific banks.
"It's a handful of companies who are being encouraged by regulators to re-negotiate," said a second banking source. "It's outrageous, but it's China, so everyone is treading very carefully."
For banks that are hoping to sell more derivatives hedges in China, the world's fastest-expanding major economy and top commodities consumer, the danger goes beyond the immediate risk to existing contracts to the longer-term precedent that suggests Chinese companies can simply renege on deals when they like.
The report follows an order from SASAC in July that required all central government-controlled state companies engaged in trading derivatives to make quarterly reports about their investments, including details of holdings and performance.
But the reported letter opened several important questions that could not immediately be answered. "If we were among the banks receiving that letter, we would be very angry. But now the key is to find out more details on the letter: In whose name the letter was issued, the government or the corporate's? And under what was the reason for defaulting?" said a Singapore-based marketing executive with a foreign bank.
The source, whose bank did not receive a letter, said that Air China, China Eastern and shipping giant COSCO - among the Chinese companies that have reported huge derivatives losses since last year - had issued almost identical notices to banks.
"If it's in the name of the government, the impact will be very negative," said the source, who declined to be named.
Beijing-based derivatives lawyers said the so-called "legal letter" has no legal standing -- SASAC as a shareholder has no business relationship with international banks.
"It's like the father suddenly told the creditors of his debt-ridden son that his son won't pay any of his debt," said a lawyer from the derivatives risks committee of the Beijing Lawyers Association. (C ) Reuters
============================================================================
Rules there are no rules in China.
Wat wordt daar precies mee bedoeld?quote:A report that Chinese state-owned companies will be allowed to walk away from loss-making commodity derivative trades provoked anger and dismay among investment bankers on Monday as they feared it may set a damaging precedent.
---
And when the leaves fall the land looks more human
it's got me questioning the essence of my farm boy blues
hence, I never wore the fashions of the know-what-I'm-doin'
And when the leaves fall the land looks more human
it's got me questioning the essence of my farm boy blues
hence, I never wore the fashions of the know-what-I'm-doin'
Dat de verliesgevende side bets niet uitbetaald worden door Chinese staatsbedrijven. Ook al participeren ze mee in deze hedge market.
Zoiets maakt de derivaten handel in China behoorlijk stuk. En dan moet je weer terug bij wie die papieren en garanties hebben uitgeven.
De vraag is nu eigenlijk, welke buitenlandse investeerder durft er nu nog in te stappen als hij zijn inzet niet kan hedgen (denk niet veel).
Zoiets maakt de derivaten handel in China behoorlijk stuk. En dan moet je weer terug bij wie die papieren en garanties hebben uitgeven.
De vraag is nu eigenlijk, welke buitenlandse investeerder durft er nu nog in te stappen als hij zijn inzet niet kan hedgen (denk niet veel).
ach bedrijven leren het toch niet dat is al de zoveelste keer dat ze genaaid worden door china, maar toch blijven ze vrolijk technologie en geld er heen schepen 
1/10 Van de rappers dankt zijn bestaan in Amerika aan de Nederlanders die zijn voorouders met een cruiseschip uit hun hongerige landen ophaalde om te werken op prachtige plantages.
"Oorlog is de overtreffende trap van concurrentie."
"Oorlog is de overtreffende trap van concurrentie."
Even een praktische vraag aan de ervaren (China) reizigers die hier rondhangen. Als ik goud mee wil nemen naar Shanghai, kan ik het dan gewoon aangeven bij de douane, in mijn zak steken en meenemen? Hoe zit dat met goud vervoeren over de grenzen in het algemeen? Ik las laatst dat er een gozer bij de zwitserse grens opgepakt was met zijn auto vol goudstaven of waardepapieren.
Ligt eraan hoeveel, je moet namelijk wel aangifte doen voor alles met een waarde boven de 5,000USD.
Vraagje van mij aan de volgers van de Chinese munteenheid de Yuan. Zal deze in de komende 3-5 jaar stijgen tov de Dollar of dalen en waarom?
Vraagje van mij aan de volgers van de Chinese munteenheid de Yuan. Zal deze in de komende 3-5 jaar stijgen tov de Dollar of dalen en waarom?
No bad soldiers under a good leader
dit bedoel jequote:Op zaterdag 5 september 2009 12:46 schreef arjanus het volgende:
Even een praktische vraag aan de ervaren (China) reizigers die hier rondhangen. Als ik goud mee wil nemen naar Shanghai, kan ik het dan gewoon aangeven bij de douane, in mijn zak steken en meenemen? Hoe zit dat met goud vervoeren over de grenzen in het algemeen? Ik las laatst dat er een gozer bij de zwitserse grens opgepakt was met zijn auto vol goudstaven of waardepapieren.
http://www.telegraaf.nl/b(...)miljard__.html?p=5,2
Zwitsers bankgeheim in geding na schikking fraudezaak
De Chinese Rmb gaat stijgen zodra de chinese overheid de rmb loskoppelt van de dollar. De chinese balans staat vol met vorderingen, de Amerikaanse vol met schulden. Ik kan het ook niet beter uitleggenquote:Op zondag 6 september 2009 19:03 schreef Rbhp het volgende:
Vraagje van mij aan de volgers van de Chinese munteenheid de Yuan. Zal deze in de komende 3-5 jaar stijgen tov de Dollar of dalen en waarom?
Arjanus, China heeft hele andere regels mbt invoer dan Zwitserland. Goed, dat begrijp jij volgens mij ook wel dus dat hoef ik niet uit te leggen. Waardepapieren kun je meenemen, die checken ze niet, maar goudstaven meenemen, das een ander verhaal.
Wbt de RMB, toen ik naar China ging in 2005 stond die nog tussen de 8.nogwat:1 (RMB vs USD). Nu staat ie op 6.8:1. Ik dacht dat ie al deels was losgekoppeld, maar dat begrijp ik nog steeds niet helemaal na 4 jaar China. Het probleem is dat ze de komende 20 jaar nooit de RMB van de dollar zullen loskoppelen. Ik wil nu een lening aanvragen in USD hier in China, en maak me een beetje zorgen om die exchange rate, aangezien ik in RMB betaald krijg. Als de USD omhoog gaat, dan ben ik een klein beetje de lul...
Wbt de RMB, toen ik naar China ging in 2005 stond die nog tussen de 8.nogwat:1 (RMB vs USD). Nu staat ie op 6.8:1. Ik dacht dat ie al deels was losgekoppeld, maar dat begrijp ik nog steeds niet helemaal na 4 jaar China. Het probleem is dat ze de komende 20 jaar nooit de RMB van de dollar zullen loskoppelen. Ik wil nu een lening aanvragen in USD hier in China, en maak me een beetje zorgen om die exchange rate, aangezien ik in RMB betaald krijg. Als de USD omhoog gaat, dan ben ik een klein beetje de lul...
No bad soldiers under a good leader
Persoonlijk denk ik dat je sowieso beter van de dollar af kunt blijven, met 1 uitzondering daargelaten: neem een lening in usd, zet de rente zo laag mogelijk voor 20 jaar vast. En stop er geen eigen dollars in, dus alleen de rente aflossen. Als je bijvoorbeeld een huis in China koopt en zo goedkoper uit bent dan huren, dan doet de inflatie z'n werk en stelt die lening over 20 jaar niks meer voor.quote:Op maandag 7 september 2009 05:01 schreef Rbhp het volgende:
Wbt de RMB, toen ik naar China ging in 2005 stond die nog tussen de 8.nogwat:1 (RMB vs USD). Nu staat ie op 6.8:1. Ik dacht dat ie al deels was losgekoppeld, maar dat begrijp ik nog steeds niet helemaal na 4 jaar China. Het probleem is dat ze de komende 20 jaar nooit de RMB van de dollar zullen loskoppelen. Ik wil nu een lening aanvragen in USD hier in China, en maak me een beetje zorgen om die exchange rate, aangezien ik in RMB betaald krijg. Als de USD omhoog gaat, dan ben ik een klein beetje de lul...
Over de rmb vs usd ratio heb ik geen mening. Dat kan alle kanten op. De Chinezen zouden het beste af zijn als ze hun munt loskoppelen van de dollar, maar ik heb verder geen kijk op wat voor krachten er daar verder nog spelen.
Als China de RMB loskoppelt, dan halveren de vorderingen in dollars op de balans, dat kan men niet doenquote:Op zondag 6 september 2009 21:16 schreef arjanus het volgende:
[..]
De Chinese Rmb gaat stijgen zodra de chinese overheid de rmb loskoppelt van de dollar. De chinese balans staat vol met vorderingen, de Amerikaanse vol met schulden. Ik kan het ook niet beter uitleggen
Aha, ik snap je punt, en je hebt helemaal gelijk. Heb nu een lening in usd voor 30 jaar, rente op 2.95, maar die kan niet vastgesteld worden voor een vaste periode, is afhankelijk van de markt, met een discount van .30%. Dan nog denk ik dat het vrij interessant is om op dit moment in usd te lenen.quote:Op zaterdag 12 september 2009 12:12 schreef arjanus het volgende:
[..]
Persoonlijk denk ik dat je sowieso beter van de dollar af kunt blijven, met 1 uitzondering daargelaten: neem een lening in usd, zet de rente zo laag mogelijk voor 20 jaar vast. En stop er geen eigen dollars in, dus alleen de rente aflossen. Als je bijvoorbeeld een huis in China koopt en zo goedkoper uit bent dan huren, dan doet de inflatie z'n werk en stelt die lening over 20 jaar niks meer voor.
Over de rmb vs usd ratio heb ik geen mening. Dat kan alle kanten op. De Chinezen zouden het beste af zijn als ze hun munt loskoppelen van de dollar, maar ik heb verder geen kijk op wat voor krachten er daar verder nog spelen.
No bad soldiers under a good leader
Ja klopt, de vorderingen halveren, maar bedenk eens wat die vorderingen nu waard zijn. Amerika is failliet, ze gaan die schuld echt never nooit meer terugbetalen, misschien 20-30 cent op de dollar dat ze er ooit nog voor krijgen.quote:Op zaterdag 12 september 2009 13:43 schreef henkway het volgende:
[..]
Als China de RMB loskoppelt, dan halveren de vorderingen in dollars op de balans, dat kan men niet doen
Ik denk als je een huis heb in China en je verdient in RMB, je al een enorm voordeel hebt op de dollar. Maar die lening in usd met een variabele rente zou bij mij wel een ongemakkelijk gevoel geven. Die rente kan over 2 jaar best eens double digit worden. Maar zoals ik al zei, je huis in china zal de komende 30 jaar waarschijnlijk flink in waarde stijgen en de rmb ook.quote:Op zondag 13 september 2009 09:22 schreef Rbhp het volgende:
[..]
Aha, ik snap je punt, en je hebt helemaal gelijk. Heb nu een lening in usd voor 30 jaar, rente op 2.95, maar die kan niet vastgesteld worden voor een vaste periode, is afhankelijk van de markt, met een discount van .30%. Dan nog denk ik dat het vrij interessant is om op dit moment in usd te lenen.
Bronquote:Wanneer knapt de Chinese zeepbel?
Ik heb het hier al eerder geschreven: de wonderbaarlijke Chinese economische groei, zou wel eens in een een grote knal kunnen eindigen. Het land investeert in overcapaciteit, de overheid pompt honderden miljarden in de economie en het wisselkoersbeleid voert de toch al hoge geldgroei nog verder op.
Over dat laatste punt las ik dit weekend dit stuk op Seeking Alpha. Zijn de valutategoeden van de Chinese Volksbank ‘de grootste zeepbel aller tijden’? Hier een paar zorgwekende stukjes uit het artikel (maar lees het liever helemaal).
China's reserves are growing at about $400 billion per year, roughly adding Norway's economy to their reserve surplus every year.
China's huge arsenal of reserves is increasingly troublesome. William Pesek of Bloomberg has called it a "massive and growing pyramid scheme." China is essentially trapped in its current arrangement; as it buys more US Treasuries, it becomes harder to sell them without causing huge capital losses.
History has not been kind to economies that have amassed such huge foreign currency reserves. According to Professor Pettis, author of China Financial Markets, there have been two prior periods in which a country has amassed such large foreign reserves; the United States in the 1920s and Japan in the 1980s. (…) Both of those periods in time ended very badly. The United States plunged into the Great Depression and Japan has experienced nearly 2 lost decades.
Bron van de bron
Op maandag 30 november 2009 19:30 schreef Ian_Nick het volgende:
Pietje's hobby is puzzelen en misschien ben jij wel het laatste stukje O+
Pietje's hobby is puzzelen en misschien ben jij wel het laatste stukje O+
Dit is ook verplichte kost voor al die mensen die zo vast zijn op China:
"If you want to make God laugh, tell him about your plans"
Mijn reisverslagen
Mijn reisverslagen
"All great truths begin as blasphemies" - George Bernard Shaw, Ierse vrijdenker (1856 - 1950)
"Religion is regarded by common people as true, by the wise as false, and by rulers as useful" - Lucius Annaeus Seneca, Romeinse filosoof (4 BC - 65 AD)
"Religion is regarded by common people as true, by the wise as false, and by rulers as useful" - Lucius Annaeus Seneca, Romeinse filosoof (4 BC - 65 AD)
Dat is idd een hele beknopte samenvatting van dit topicquote:Op maandag 8 februari 2010 12:44 schreef Deprater het volgende:
china
The more debt, the better
droogquote:Op maandag 8 februari 2010 13:14 schreef flyguy het volgende:
[..]
Dat is idd een hele beknopte samenvatting van dit topic
"All great truths begin as blasphemies" - George Bernard Shaw, Ierse vrijdenker (1856 - 1950)
"Religion is regarded by common people as true, by the wise as false, and by rulers as useful" - Lucius Annaeus Seneca, Romeinse filosoof (4 BC - 65 AD)
"Religion is regarded by common people as true, by the wise as false, and by rulers as useful" - Lucius Annaeus Seneca, Romeinse filosoof (4 BC - 65 AD)
quote:China PLA officers urge economic punch against U.S.
BEIJING (Reuters) - Senior Chinese military officers have proposed that their country boost defense spending, adjust PLA deployments, and possibly sell some U.S. bonds to punish Washington for its latest round of arms sales to Taiwan.
The calls for broad retaliation over the planned U.S. weapons sales to the disputed island came from officers at China's National Defence University and Academy of Military Sciences, interviewed by Outlook Weekly, a Chinese-language magazine published by the official Xinhua news agency.
The interviews with Major Generals Zhu Chenghu and Luo Yuan and Senior Colonel Ke Chunqiao appeared in the issue published on Monday.
The People's Liberation Army (PLA) plays no role in setting policy for China's foreign exchange holdings. Officials in charge of that area have given no sign of any moves to sell U.S. Treasury bonds over the weapons sales, a move that could alarm markets and damage the value of China's own holdings.
While far from representing fixed government policy, the open demands for retaliation by the PLA officers underscored the domestic pressures on Beijing to deliver on its threats to punish the Obama administration over the arms sales.
"Our retaliation should not be restricted to merely military matters, and we should adopt a strategic package of counter-punches covering politics, military affairs, diplomacy and economics to treat both the symptoms and root cause of this disease," said Luo Yuan, a researcher at the Academy of Military Sciences.
"Just like two people rowing a boat, if the United States first throws the strokes into chaos, then so must we."
Luo said Beijing could "attack by oblique means and stealthy feints" to make its point in Washington.
"For example, we could sanction them using economic means, such as dumping some U.S. government bonds," Luo said.
The warnings from the PLA come after weeks of strains between Washington and Beijing, who have also been at odds over Internet controls and hacking, trade and currency quarrels, and President Barack Obama's planned meeting with the Dalai Lama, the exiled Tibetan leader reviled by China as a "separatist."
MILITARY SPENDING BOOST
Chinese has blasted the United States over the planned $6.4 billion arms package for Taiwan unveiled in late January, saying it will sanction U.S. firms that sell weapons to the self-ruled island that Beijing considers a breakaway province of China.
China is likely to unveil its official military budget for 2010 next month, when the Communist Party-controlled national parliament meets for its annual session.
The PLA officers suggested that budget should mirror China's ire toward Washington.
"Clearly propose that due to the threat in the Taiwan Sea, we are increasing military spending," said Luo.
Last year, the government set the official military budget at 480.7 billion yuan ($70.4 billion), a 14.9 percent rise on the one in 2008, continuing a nearly unbroken succession of double-digit increases over more than two decades.
The fresh U.S. arms sales threatened Chinese military installations on the mainland coast facing Taiwan, and "this gives us no choice but to increase defense spending and adjust (military) deployments," said Zhu Chenghu, a major general at China's National Defence University in Beijing.
In 2005, Zhu stirred controversy by suggesting China could use nuclear weapons if the United States intervened militarily in a conflict over Taiwan.
The United States switched official recognition from Taiwan to China in 1979. But the Taiwan Relations Act, passed the same year, guarantees Taiwan a continued supply of defensive weapons.
China has the world's biggest pile of foreign currency reserves, much of it held in U.S. treasury debt. China held $798.9 billion in U.S. Treasuries at end-October.
But any attempt to use that stake against Washington would probably maul the value of China's own dollar-denominated assets.
China has condemned previous arms sales, but has taken little action in response to them. But Luo said the country's growing strength meant that time has passed.
"China's attitude and actions over U.S. weapons sales to Taiwan will be increasingly tough," the magazine cited him as saying. "That is inevitable with rising national strength."
http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE6183KG20100209
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quote:China Dumps US Asset Backeds and Corporates
February 9th, 2010
By David Goldman
Dollar-denominated risk assets, including asset-backed securities and corporates, are no longer wanted at the State Administration of Foreign Exchange (SAFE), nor at China’s large commercial banks. The Chinese government has ordered its reserve managers to divest itself of riskier securities and hold only Treasuries and US agency debt with an implicit or explicit government guarantee. This already has been communicated to American securities dealers, according to market participants with direct knowledge of the events.
It is not clear whether China’s motive is simple risk aversion in the wake of a sharp widening of corporate and mortgage spreads during the past two weeks, or whether there also is a political dimension. With the expected termination of the Federal Reserve’s special facility to purchase mortgage-backed securities next month, some asset-backed spreads already have blown out, and the Chinese institutions may simply be trying to get out of the way of a widening. There is some speculation that China’s action has to do with the recent deterioration of US-Chinese relations over arm sales to Taiwan and other issues. That would be an unusual action for the Chinese to take–Beijing does not mix investment and strategic policy–and would be hard to substantiate in any event.
http://blog.atimes.net/?p=1352
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China heeft papieren weapons of mass destruction. Zou het bluf zijn om Amerika op de knieën te dwingen vanwege Taiwan en Tibet? want ze kunnen eigenlijk ook niet zonder elkaar, als Amerika down gaat, gaat china mee..
Geweldig! De suggestie om de Chinese schuldencrisis op te lossen door Chinese subprimeleningen aan internationale investeerders te verkopen!quote:Wednesday, February 10, 2010
Looming Problem of Local Debt in China-- 1.6 Trillion Dollar and Rising
Did China accomplish the impossible? Did it generate almost 9% growth and maintain low debt to GDP ratio even as its export plummeted by 20%? What about claims that the torrent of investment in China has come without too much leveraging? After spending half a year looking into the debt level of local government investment entities-- some 8000 of them-- my conclusion is no. As in the past, the Chinese government just ordered banks to lend to investment companies set up by both central and local governments. Local governments have fully taken advantage of the green light in late 2008 and borrowed an enormous sums from banks and bond investors starting in late 2008 (well, a large amount even before that). In an editorial in the Asian Wall Street Journal yesterday, I outline some problems with this massive amount of borrowing:
Beijing is no longer sure how much money local investment entities have borrowed from banks and raised from bond and equity investors. The amount, however, must be large. In September, the Chinese press, citing government sources, suggested that these entities have borrowed $880 billion (6 trillion yuan). In a January interview with the Twentieth Century Business Herald, a Chinese newspaper, the vice chairman of the Finance and Economic Committee of the National People's Congress, Yi Zhongliu, revealed that local investment entities borrowed some $735 billion in 2009 alone.
These are mere guesses, however. A National Audit Agency audit conducted late last year uncovered so many problems with the data that Premier Wen Jiabao ordered another large-scale audit of local investment entities. Until a thorough audit is completed and the results announced to the public, no one really knows the total scale of local borrowing.
Given the information vacuum surrounding this issue, I spent half a year collecting data that would allow me to provide an estimate of total local debt (and also for each of China's provinces). Again, in the WSJ piece, I briefly outline my methodology and the results in the piece.
To obtain an independent estimate, I collected data from thousands of sources, including regulatory filings, bond-rating reports and press releases of government-bank cooperative agreements. I estimate local investment entities' borrowing between 2004 and the end of 2009 totals some $1.6 trillion. The data are far from perfect because borrowing by low-level government entities and lending by small banks are difficult to track. Nonetheless, my evidence suggests that the scale of the problem is much larger than previous government estimates. At $1.6 trillion, the size of local debt is roughly one-third of China's 2009 GDP and 70% of its foreign-exchange reserves.
So basically, in addition to the 20% of official debt-to-GDP ratio, one has to add an additional 30%. We also have to add other debt that the central government guarantees, such as the nearly 1 trillion RMB in Ministry of Railway bonds and bonds issued by the asset management companies. All of this gives China a high debt to GDP ratio. Also, there are some disturbing implications of this high debt. For one, local governments would have to sell lots and lots of land every year for many years to come to pay interest payment on this debt. Thus, to the extent that there is a real estate bubble today, it must continue for local governments to remain solvent. Regardless of what you believe about Chinese real estate, you have to think that this growth in real estate and land prices must slow or reverse at some point.
I think that the best course of action for the Chinese government is to credibly stop leveraging by local investment companies. Instead of the half measures in place today, a public and stern order should be given to banks to stop lending to all new projects undertaken by these local entities. Other measures should follow:
Since county governments are in the poorest fiscal shape and have the least ability to repay banks, the central government should take over the debt of almost all of the county-level investment vehicles. Although this will increase China's debt-to-GDP ratio significantly, the total would still be low by international standards.
A sudden contraction of lending to local investment vehicles will generate a wave of nonperforming loans, but a greater reliance on market mechanisms can easily solve this problem over the next few years. First, banks will fully recover the debt of the healthiest local entities, which may account for half of total local debt. For the remainder, the government needs to allow banks to directly sell subprime or distressed loans to both foreign and domestic investors. Beijing need not fear that China's listed banks will sell their nonperforming loans at below-market prices, as these banks report to shareholders. Banks, in conjunction with investment banks and distressed-asset investors, should also explore ways to securitize local debt for sale to both domestic and international investors. The latter in particular would have a healthy appetite for yuan-denominated security, anticipating a currency revaluation soon.
Basically, I think the Chinese government can turn this into a great opportunity for market reform in the financial system and the internationalization of the RMB. However, it has to act soon before local debt gets too large to handle.
http://chinesepolitics.blogspot.com/
Ik zie het al gebeuren, Chinezen die in de USA of in Europa gaan lopen leuren met hun eigen rommelhypotheken
"If you want to make God laugh, tell him about your plans"
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Dan gaan die chinezen wel lopen leuren bij banken waar ze grootaandeelhouder van zijn. Denk daarbij bijvoorbeeld aan fortis.
Asl ze ze in mooie pakketjes verpakken waarbij de onderliggende waardes voor niemand zichtbaar zijn dan zullen er heus wel land/investeerders/banken zijn die erin trappen. De VS heeft het ook al een keer voor elkaar gekregen.quote:Op maandag 15 februari 2010 16:43 schreef SeLang het volgende:
[..]
Geweldig! De suggestie om de Chinese schuldencrisis op te lossen door Chinese subprimeleningen aan internationale investeerders te verkopen!
Ik zie het al gebeuren, Chinezen die in de USA of in Europa gaan lopen leuren met hun eigen rommelhypotheken
Ik denk zelfs dat er best veel vraag naar zal zijn, in het licht van de aanstaande opwaardering van de Chinese munt. En dollars/euros zijn nog steeds gratis te leen, dus.... tijd voor de Chinese subprime bubblequote:Op dinsdag 16 februari 2010 09:26 schreef Basp1 het volgende:
[..]
Asl ze ze in mooie pakketjes verpakken waarbij de onderliggende waardes voor niemand zichtbaar zijn dan zullen er heus wel land/investeerders/banken zijn die erin trappen. De VS heeft het ook al een keer voor elkaar gekregen.
"If you want to make God laugh, tell him about your plans"
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We zijn al iig. hard op weg als je de groei van de huizencijfers in china bekijktquote:Op dinsdag 16 februari 2010 10:20 schreef SeLang het volgende:
[..]
Ik denk zelfs dat er best veel vraag naar zal zijn, in het licht van de aanstaande opwaardering van de Chinese munt. En dollars/euros zijn nog steeds gratis te leen, dus.... tijd voor de Chinese subprime bubble
Long live the bubbles
People once tried to make Chuck Norris toilet paper. He said no because Chuck Norris takes crap from NOBODY!!!!
Megan Fox makes my balls look like vannilla ice cream.
Megan Fox makes my balls look like vannilla ice cream.
Echt veelbelovend jaquote:Op dinsdag 16 februari 2010 12:59 schreef sitting_elfling het volgende:
[..]
We zijn al iig. hard op weg als je de groei van de huizencijfers in china bekijkt
[ afbeelding ]
Long live the bubbles
Homeownership in China is al 80% (USA is 65% ofzo).
Bevolking gaat dalen vanaf 2025 ofzo (beroepsbevolking al vanaf 2015).
Veel nieuwbouw staat leeg, want puur gebouwd voor speculatie.
Huizen gaan daar slechts een paar decennia mee en de grond is pacht, dus niet van jou!
Sure thing
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Die krotjes gebouwd met ossenstront op het platteland waarin nog steeds 70% van de chinezen wonen tellen ook mee in het huiseigenaarschap?quote:Op dinsdag 16 februari 2010 13:24 schreef SeLang het volgende:
[..]
Echt veelbelovend ja
Homeownership in China is al 80% (USA is 65% ofzo).
Bevolking gaat dalen vanaf 2025 ofzo (beroepsbevolking al vanaf 2015).
Veel nieuwbouw staat leeg, want puur gebouwd voor speculatie.
Huizen gaan daar slechts een paar decennia mee en de grond is pacht, dus niet van jou!
Sure thing
Chinezen zijn over het algemeen redelijk gehuisvest is mijn ervaring. Het is geen Indonesie of Filippijnen. Maar natuurlijk is het nog steeds geen hoge standaard en inkomens op het platteland zijn super laag. Het platteland is niet het gebied waar de grote groei plaatsvindt.quote:Op dinsdag 16 februari 2010 13:31 schreef Basp1 het volgende:
[..]
Die krotjes gebouwd met ossenstront op het platteland waarin nog steeds 70% van de chinezen wonen tellen ook mee in het huiseigenaarschap?
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http://www.nu.nl/economie(...)dschieter-china.html
quote:Witte Huis sust zorg om geldschieter China
Uitgegeven: 18 februari 2010 22:12
Laatst gewijzigd: 18 februari 2010 22:12
WASHINGTON - De Amerikaanse regering heeft donderdag de zorg gerelativeerd, die ontstond toen bekend werd dat China Amerikaanse staatsleningen van de hand heeft gedaan.
© ANPChina is een belangrijke financier van Amerikaanse staatsschuld, maar Japan heeft China verdrongen als grootste bezitter van Amerikaanse staatsleningen.
Dat gebeurde nadat China in december de portefeuille van Amerikaanse staatsleningen per saldo met 34 miljard dollar had verminderd van 789 miljard naar 755 miljard dollar.
Dat werd door sommigen uitgelegd als een protest van China tegen het beleid van de Verenigde Staten, maar Lawrence Summers, een belangrijke economisch adviseur van het Witte Huis, vindt dat daaraan niet zo veel betekenis moet worden toegekend.
''Dit soort cijfers schommelt nogal en bovendien zijn de staatsleningen breed gespreid",' zei hij voor de Amerikaanse televisie.
Op maandag 30 november 2009 19:30 schreef Ian_Nick het volgende:
Pietje's hobby is puzzelen en misschien ben jij wel het laatste stukje O+
Pietje's hobby is puzzelen en misschien ben jij wel het laatste stukje O+
Maar als punt bij paaltje komt kan china het zich veroorloven om bubbles op te blazen met al hun reserves en spaargeld. Wij niet.
Helemaal niet, als china al hun dollars dumpt, dan dumpen alle andere landen met dollars hun troep ook. Als China daarnaast hun munt de vrije loop laat, worden alle Chinezen ineens rijk terwijl de Amerikanen straatarm worden (lage dollar, kunnen dus niks meer kopen op de wereldmarkt, hoge rmb en chinezen kunnen alles kopen op de wereldmarkt).quote:Op woensdag 10 februari 2010 11:47 schreef luckyb1rd het volgende:
China heeft papieren weapons of mass destruction. Zou het bluf zijn om Amerika op de knieën te dwingen vanwege Taiwan en Tibet? want ze kunnen eigenlijk ook niet zonder elkaar, als Amerika down gaat, gaat china mee..
Let wel, bovenstaande is geen optie, dit moet vroeg of laat een keertje gebeuren. Cold-Turkey, hoe langer men wacht hoe erger het wordt.
China warns U.S. that 'trade war' will hurt Americans even more
By John Pomfret
Washington Post Staff Writer
Sunday, March 21, 2010; 1:53 PM
BEIJING -- China's minister of commerce warned that United States on Sunday that if it launches a "trade war" against China by leveling punitive tariffs on Chinese imports, the United States would suffer the most.
Minister Chen Deming also said what he termed was the U.S. government's "obsession" with China's exchange rate could not be seriously addressed until the U.S. government stopped blocking the export of high-tech products, such as supercomputers and satellites, to China.
"If some congressman insist on labeling China as a currency manipulator and slap punitive tariffs on Chinese products, then the China government will find it impossible not to react," Chen said in an interview with The Washington Post. "If the United States uses the exchange rate to start a new trade war, China will be hurt but the American people and U.S. companies will be hurt even more."
Chen's comments, made in an hour-long interview at the ministry Sunday afternoon, reflect the exasperation inside the Chinese leadership with the U.S. attempt to push China to let the value of its currency, the yuan, rise against the dollar. In addition, Chen's remarks also underscored how China is seeking to use the current trade dispute with the United States to push its own agenda with Washington -- to get rid of or at least lighten the 20-year-old sanctions limiting American exports to China.
President Obama has contended that if China lets the yuan appreciate, U.S. exports would increase. Sen. Charles Schumer (D-N.Y.) is authoring legislation that would slap tariffs on Chinese goods if China does not allow its currency to float more freely. On April 15, the Treasury Department is scheduled to release a report on worldwide currencies. Chen said the Chinese government did not want to see Beijing labeled as a "currency manipulator."
Chen, who has studied at Harvard University and at Johns Hopkins University's center at Nanjing University, said he didn't understand what the United States was attempting to achieve by threatening China.
"You're not going to get 1.3 billion Chinese to change by insulting them," he said. "Could it be related to upcoming elections? I don't know. Because economically it makes no sense."
Chen said if the U.S. threats were geared toward limiting imports and decreasing America's trade imbalance that way, it wouldn't work. Perhaps imports from China would fall, but that wouldn't mean that Americans would start producing goods such as telephones and TVs again. "That production isn't going to return to America, that's just not practical," he said. "Globalization has changed all that."
"But if you want to increase your exports, this strategy also won't work," he warned. "How are you going to get China to buy more of your products if you insult it?"
Chen said the best way for the United States to increase its exports to China would be to relax restrictions on the export of high-technology and dual use goods to China. Since 1989, when China launched a crackdown on student-led protests around Tiananmen Square, the United States has limited some exports to China. Chen said those limits amounted to billions of a dollars a year of potential exports to China.
And he added that under such restrictions, talk about a more liberalized exchange regime in China is a non-starter. "If you want to discuss the exchange rate you have to do it under a free trading system," he said, "a system wherein if I want to buy something I can and if you want to sell it you can."
Chen gave a few examples of U.S. restrictions. After the massive earthquake in Sichuan in 2008, China sought to buy engines for a batch of Blackhawk helicopters that the United States had sold China in the 1980s when the two countries were cooperating against the then-Soviet Union. Chen said China was trying to make the purchase so it could use the helicopters to save people injured in the quake, but that the United States rejected the request. (U.S. officials have raised doubts about that China's claim, pointing out that Blackhawk helicopters have a limited carrying capacity.)
China solved its problem by borrowing helicopter engines from Russia and subsequently buying helicopters from Russia, Chen said. The same holds true for satellites, he added. China would rather buy them from the United States, but concerns about export controls have forced it to source satellites from Europe, Chen said.
"This is the reason why our trade balance with the United States is skewed," Chen said. "The United States has strict export controls to China."
And don't expect that China will simply do without these goods, he added. "We're a nation of 1.3 billion people. We graduated 7 million university students a year. We'll either make it ourselves or buy it from somewhere else."
Invoking an old Chinese proverb favored by Chairman Mao, he said, "just because the butcher is dead, doesn't mean we won't be able to eat pork."
Obama came into office saying he was going to review the limits on exports to certain countries. "But," Chen pointed out, "that was more than half a year ago and so far nothing has happened. He's said he wants exports to double in five years but I don't know whom he is going to sell them to."
Chen said that China does not want to see the trade issue politicized. To that end, he said a deputy trade minister, Zhong Shan, would arrive in the United States in the next few days to discuss trade issues with his counterparts at the Department of Commerce and the office of the U.S. Trade Representative.
"Both side needs to stay cool," he said. "We need to sit down and talk."
But if the United States does decide to slap tariffs on China, Chen said, American companies, which account for more than 60 percent of China's exports to the United States, would surely be hurt the most.
"In the end," Chen said, "America is the one that needs to adjust."
While some analysts in the have predicated that China would soon start to let the yuan appreciate, Chen's interview underscored the fact that there is a strong lobby in China opposing any revaluation. One reason why a revaluation would be dangerous for China, Chen said, was that profit margins of Chinese exporters were tiny -- ranging from 1.7 to 2 percentage points.
By John Pomfret
Washington Post Staff Writer
Sunday, March 21, 2010; 1:53 PM
BEIJING -- China's minister of commerce warned that United States on Sunday that if it launches a "trade war" against China by leveling punitive tariffs on Chinese imports, the United States would suffer the most.
Minister Chen Deming also said what he termed was the U.S. government's "obsession" with China's exchange rate could not be seriously addressed until the U.S. government stopped blocking the export of high-tech products, such as supercomputers and satellites, to China.
"If some congressman insist on labeling China as a currency manipulator and slap punitive tariffs on Chinese products, then the China government will find it impossible not to react," Chen said in an interview with The Washington Post. "If the United States uses the exchange rate to start a new trade war, China will be hurt but the American people and U.S. companies will be hurt even more."
Chen's comments, made in an hour-long interview at the ministry Sunday afternoon, reflect the exasperation inside the Chinese leadership with the U.S. attempt to push China to let the value of its currency, the yuan, rise against the dollar. In addition, Chen's remarks also underscored how China is seeking to use the current trade dispute with the United States to push its own agenda with Washington -- to get rid of or at least lighten the 20-year-old sanctions limiting American exports to China.
President Obama has contended that if China lets the yuan appreciate, U.S. exports would increase. Sen. Charles Schumer (D-N.Y.) is authoring legislation that would slap tariffs on Chinese goods if China does not allow its currency to float more freely. On April 15, the Treasury Department is scheduled to release a report on worldwide currencies. Chen said the Chinese government did not want to see Beijing labeled as a "currency manipulator."
Chen, who has studied at Harvard University and at Johns Hopkins University's center at Nanjing University, said he didn't understand what the United States was attempting to achieve by threatening China.
"You're not going to get 1.3 billion Chinese to change by insulting them," he said. "Could it be related to upcoming elections? I don't know. Because economically it makes no sense."
Chen said if the U.S. threats were geared toward limiting imports and decreasing America's trade imbalance that way, it wouldn't work. Perhaps imports from China would fall, but that wouldn't mean that Americans would start producing goods such as telephones and TVs again. "That production isn't going to return to America, that's just not practical," he said. "Globalization has changed all that."
"But if you want to increase your exports, this strategy also won't work," he warned. "How are you going to get China to buy more of your products if you insult it?"
Chen said the best way for the United States to increase its exports to China would be to relax restrictions on the export of high-technology and dual use goods to China. Since 1989, when China launched a crackdown on student-led protests around Tiananmen Square, the United States has limited some exports to China. Chen said those limits amounted to billions of a dollars a year of potential exports to China.
And he added that under such restrictions, talk about a more liberalized exchange regime in China is a non-starter. "If you want to discuss the exchange rate you have to do it under a free trading system," he said, "a system wherein if I want to buy something I can and if you want to sell it you can."
Chen gave a few examples of U.S. restrictions. After the massive earthquake in Sichuan in 2008, China sought to buy engines for a batch of Blackhawk helicopters that the United States had sold China in the 1980s when the two countries were cooperating against the then-Soviet Union. Chen said China was trying to make the purchase so it could use the helicopters to save people injured in the quake, but that the United States rejected the request. (U.S. officials have raised doubts about that China's claim, pointing out that Blackhawk helicopters have a limited carrying capacity.)
China solved its problem by borrowing helicopter engines from Russia and subsequently buying helicopters from Russia, Chen said. The same holds true for satellites, he added. China would rather buy them from the United States, but concerns about export controls have forced it to source satellites from Europe, Chen said.
"This is the reason why our trade balance with the United States is skewed," Chen said. "The United States has strict export controls to China."
And don't expect that China will simply do without these goods, he added. "We're a nation of 1.3 billion people. We graduated 7 million university students a year. We'll either make it ourselves or buy it from somewhere else."
Invoking an old Chinese proverb favored by Chairman Mao, he said, "just because the butcher is dead, doesn't mean we won't be able to eat pork."
Obama came into office saying he was going to review the limits on exports to certain countries. "But," Chen pointed out, "that was more than half a year ago and so far nothing has happened. He's said he wants exports to double in five years but I don't know whom he is going to sell them to."
Chen said that China does not want to see the trade issue politicized. To that end, he said a deputy trade minister, Zhong Shan, would arrive in the United States in the next few days to discuss trade issues with his counterparts at the Department of Commerce and the office of the U.S. Trade Representative.
"Both side needs to stay cool," he said. "We need to sit down and talk."
But if the United States does decide to slap tariffs on China, Chen said, American companies, which account for more than 60 percent of China's exports to the United States, would surely be hurt the most.
"In the end," Chen said, "America is the one that needs to adjust."
While some analysts in the have predicated that China would soon start to let the yuan appreciate, Chen's interview underscored the fact that there is a strong lobby in China opposing any revaluation. One reason why a revaluation would be dangerous for China, Chen said, was that profit margins of Chinese exporters were tiny -- ranging from 1.7 to 2 percentage points.
Tja ze hebben dan wellicht wat centen, maar ook veelal geen baan meer dus dan loopt het rap af.quote:Op zondag 21 maart 2010 17:14 schreef arjanus het volgende:
[..]
Helemaal niet, als china al hun dollars dumpt, dan dumpen alle andere landen met dollars hun troep ook. Als China daarnaast hun munt de vrije loop laat, worden alle Chinezen ineens rijk terwijl de Amerikanen straatarm worden (lage dollar, kunnen dus niks meer kopen op de wereldmarkt, hoge rmb en chinezen kunnen alles kopen op de wereldmarkt).
Let wel, bovenstaande is geen optie, dit moet vroeg of laat een keertje gebeuren. Cold-Turkey, hoe langer men wacht hoe erger het wordt.
quote:Op zondag 21 maart 2010 20:27 schreef arjanus het volgende:
China warns U.S. that 'trade war' will hurt Americans even more
"If you want to make God laugh, tell him about your plans"
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