[centraal] Beleggen & Aandelen deel 28

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Op maandag 15 september 2008 15:39 schreef athlonkmf het volgende:

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En waar ga jij je inzetten?
Ik zit nog te denken om, als de markt nog 20% zakt, wat euro stoxx of aex binnen te halen. Azie en Amerika zie ik toch niet zo zitten nu. Als amerika valt, zal ik in azie inzetten, maar andersom niet.

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Op maandag 15 september 2008 15:30 schreef SeLang het volgende:

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-knip-

Een put heeft een negatieve verwachte opbrengst en een call een positieve verwachte opbrengst (tov risicoloze rente). Het schrijven van een straddle (dat is wat de meeste 'schrijven voor inkomen' mensen doen) heeft daarom (volgens Black&Sholes) een verwachte opbrengst die slechts gelijk is aan de risicoloze rente.

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Op dinsdag 16 september 2008 15:13 schreef elcastel het volgende:
Ik lach me suf, een collega (Fortis geil) vroeg me net mijn mening op het werk, ik vertelde hem (om te stangen) dat Fortis nog harde klappen gaat krijgen, kom ik net thuis ... -19,6%. De tering, nog meer mensen die wat tips willen ?
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Op dinsdag 16 september 2008 15:31 schreef SeLang het volgende:
Ik moet echt op m'n handen zitten om vandaag geen 'koop'-knopjes in te gaan drukken.

Maar de ellende is tot dusver beperkt tot de financials.
Ik zit te wachten totdat de ellende zich ook uitspreidt over de niet-financials. Tot nu toe is dat allemaal nog veel te positief en zit er eigenlijk geen recessie scenario ingeprijsd. Het lijkt wel of niemand een recessie verwacht.

Het wordt tijd dat een aantal high profile industrials met een negatieve outlook komt.

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Op dinsdag 16 september 2008 15:40 schreef elcastel het volgende:

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Ik vind de dalingen nog te tam en wacht ook tot het doorzet naar de 'gewone economie', volgens mij is het en beetje uit het nieuws, omdat 10 miljard en 60 miljard lekkerder bekt. Ik koop nog niks, de oorzaak is nog niet weg en het gevolg nog niet ingeprijsd. Jeuken doet het wel, maar dat heb ik al snel bij een flinke daling.

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Op dinsdag 16 september 2008 15:41 schreef elcastel het volgende:
Ik had me nog vorgenomen om ING op te pakken op 17,50 een tijdje terug, ik wacht even de 15¤ af en bepaal dan opnieuw.

-edit- Ach jezus, gaat dat nu ook nog vanmiddag gebeuren dan ?
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Op dinsdag 16 september 2008 15:37 schreef athlonkmf het volgende:

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Hoe moet een recessie er uit zien dan volgens jou?

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Op dinsdag 16 september 2008 15:52 schreef elcastel het volgende:

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Ik ben sowieso ING aan het volgen al een tijdje en wacht ook tot de financials in de pan gehakt zijn, ik vind dat dat hoort, dus ik ga er ook vanuit dat dat gaat gebeuren. En ik kijk ook naar de andere financials, maar ben vooral AEX georienteerd.

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ING Groep N.V. ING

Analyst Note 08-13-2008

We will maintain our current fair value estimate after reviewing financial conglomerate ING Group's ING second-quarter results released on Wednesday. While earnings per share are down 20% from the second quarter of 2007, after adjusting for impairments, fair value changes, and foreign exchange effects, underlying net profit was down only 2% from the year-ago quarter. Realized losses on pressured asset classes including U.S. residential mortgage-backed securities, collateralized debt obligations, structured investment vehicles, asset-backed commercial paper, and bonds guaranteed by monolines were a paltry EUR 44 million for the quarter.

Both the insurance and banking businesses suffered from lower investment income, a result of the ongoing credit crisis. However, client balances managed to grow by an annualized rate of 7% from the end of the previous quarter, as the firm was able to attract deposits despite increased competition. And the firm's capital position remains strong, with EUR 3.9 billion in spare capacity after dividends and buybacks.


Thesis 04-07-2008

Since 2004, ING's strategy has been to sell businesses where it lacked the expertise or scale to compete effectively and reallocate capital to growing markets and operations in developed economies where demographics are favorable. Although ING has decent businesses in Asia and ING Direct, they are not enough to provide an economic moat for the entire company.

Half of ING's business is insurance, a classic no-moat business where barriers to entry are low and customers are free to choose from an array of undifferentiated, commoditylike products based on price. As the major developed economies where ING historically operated are mature, competitive markets, ING has been redistributing capital from those operations to greenfields--new insurance businesses built from the ground up--in faster-growing developing economies in Asia and Central Europe. Despite the quick growth, it will be years before these businesses constitute a majority of ING's earnings, at which point any excess profits will most likely have been competed away.

Banking, the other half of ING's business, is generally an industry with much better economics than insurance. Because customers rarely move their bank accounts in search of a higher yield, price competition is limited and banks benefit from a stable source of low-cost funding. Government regulations designed to protect consumers, such as deposit insurance, also transfer risks away from the bank, acting like an indirect subsidy to the industry. ING sought to expand its retail banking network internationally but has scaled back its ambitions to refocus on the domestic Benelux markets where its experience endows an edge over the competition. Because growth opportunities are limited domestically, ING has focused on cost efficiencies and capital management to free up capital for investments in developing markets. Unlike the insurance business, ING has chosen to link up with existing operations by taking partial ownership in banks such as Bank of Beijing in China and ING Bank Slaski in Poland.

The firm started ING Direct to penetrate developed markets without the need to build a branch network. By leveraging the firm's global brand, ING Direct has grown tremendously in the past decade, attracting competition in most markets. Although it has enough of a cost advantage over retail banks that the higher rates it must offer don't dent its profits, the customers it attracts are all too prone to move their deposits if they can get a slightly higher yield elsewhere, making this source of funding less sticky than traditional bank deposits.


Valuation

Our fair value estimate is $45 per ADR. We project an average annual premium increase of 3.5% during the next five years, with most of the gains coming from the budding Asian and Central European markets. We anticipate that the banking segment will earn 2% of its deposits as income annually and that impairments in the investment portfolio will damp growth in investment income. We think the firm has little room for further cost-cutting, which drives our assumption that expense ratios will stabilize. These assumptions add up to a 13% average annual return on equity for the next five years. Our fair value estimate assumes that ING's tax rate will trend up toward the Dutch corporate rate of 25.5% during the next five years. We use an exchange rate of EUR 0.6406 per $1 as of April 2 and an 11% cost of equity. Each 1-percentage-point change in our estimate of underwriting expenditures as a percentage of net premiums would result in a $2 change to our fair value estimate.

Risk

ING's investment portfolio contains a substantial amount of asset-backed securities, including exposure to U.S. subprime and Alt-A residential mortgage-backed securities. These subprime and Alt-A securities amount to 75% of equity, but 95% are rated AAA, providing a strong cushion from losses on the underlying collateral. ING has largely limited its exposure to higher-quality portions of the Alt-A market, with the underlying mortgages carrying virtually no loan/value ratios above 80% and no FICO scores below 680.

See Previous Analyst Reports


Close Competitors TTM Sales $Mil Market Cap $Mil
ING Groep N.V. NA 61,984
* American International Group 82,233 12,799
* AXA 133,761 57,969
* ABN AMRO Holding NV 29,906 108,278
* Aegon NV NA 17,396
* Allianz SE 146,763 65,546

* Morningstar Analyst Report Available | Compare These Stocks

Data as of 06-30-08

Strategy

After selling businesses that didn't fit into its strategy, ING is expanding internally by investing in higher-growth segments, such as retirement services, direct banking, and developing insurance markets. ING's banking business is now concentrated in the Benelux market where it has an edge over competitors, but it uses its global brand to expand its direct banking and other businesses.

Management & Stewardship

CEO Michel Tilmant joined ING in 1998 after successfully turning around two banks in the Netherlands. He was appointed chairman of the executive board in 2004 and improved returns by reorganizing the firm into six segments: three insurance and three banking. For his efforts, he received EUR 6 million in compensation in 2006, which we think is fair compensation in light of his performance. However, he owns only a few hundred thousand euros' worth of ING stock, which in our opinion is not nearly enough to align his interests with shareholders'. We think ING has taken several steps to improve corporate governance during the past few years, including granting depositary receipt owners full voting rights, gradually increasing the performance-based component of salary for top executives, and planning to eliminate the ING trust, which holds the vast majority of the shares outstanding.

Profile

Diversified financial services provider ING Group serves millions of individual and corporate clients worldwide. Company profits are split evenly between its insurance and banking operations. Other important operations for the Netherlands-based giant include online banking (ING Direct), real estate development, and asset management for individuals and institutions.

Growth

With growth hard to come by in its mature primary markets, ING is looking abroad for expansion opportunities, particularly in Central Europe and Asia. Developed markets will still provide growth for the firm's direct banking business.

Profitability

Better efficiency has helped ING improve profitability in its European operations, but Asia continues to be weighed down by negative interest rate spreads in Taiwan. An improved cost/income ratio in its banking operation bodes well for profitability.

Financial Health

ING sports low leverage, with a 9% debt/equity ratio, and has set 10% as its long-term target, which is far less than the elevated levels it carried until two years ago. The firm generates strong cash flows and is healthy, in our opinion.

Bulls Say

ING boasts a dominant market position in the Asia Pacific region, which accounts for more than half of total new business value.


ING direct banking has amassed more than EUR 196 billion in deposits and claims a 95% customer-retention rate.


A sponsorship agreement with Formula One will boost the worldwide profile of the ING brand.


Bears Say

Reserve strengthening in the rate-sensitive Taiwan market will partially offset Asia's earnings growth through at least 2008.


ING Direct's success has attracted several well-financed competitors, such as HSBC HBC and Citigroup C, leading to a deposit decline in the United States in 2007 for the first time in its history.


The direct banking model is price sensitive. In 2007, ING Direct UK experienced a 21% drop in deposits because the bank refused to match competitors' rates.

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Op dinsdag 16 september 2008 15:40 schreef elcastel het volgende:

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Ik vind de dalingen nog te tam en wacht ook tot het doorzet naar de 'gewone economie',

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Op dinsdag 16 september 2008 19:12 schreef JimmyJames het volgende:
Wie durft Fortis op te pakken?
Ik verwacht eigenlijk de 5 euro nog te zien.

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Op dinsdag 16 september 2008 19:42 schreef MrUnchained het volgende:
Pak je glazen bol er bij. Niemand weet hoeveel een bank ook maar ongeveer waard zou moeten zijn momenteel. Ik zie iig geen reden om enthousiast in Fortis te stappen op dit niveau. Hoe lager de koers hoe groter de kans dat ze nog met een dermate verwaterende emissie moeten komen dat je voorlopig geen dubbelcijferige koersen meer van Fortis zult zien. Hoewel Fortis nu natuurlijk ontkent dat ze nog extra financiering nodig hebben, maja ze kunnen moeilijk iets anders zeggen.