Bulls, Bears & Bucks #17: Beren nemen het roer weer over

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Washington houdt banken overeind
De Amerikaanse president Bush zal zich niet langer verzetten tegen het plan om de banken Freddie Mac en Fannie Mae, die failliet dreigen te gaan, een geldinjectie van miljarden dollars te geven. Het moet in nood verkerende Amerikaanse huiseigenaren steunen zodat zij hun hypotheek kunnen aflossen.

In het noodplan dat de Amerikaanse minister van financiën Paulson ruim een week geleden aankondigde, staat dat de Amerikaanse overheid miljarden aandelen ’Fannie’ en ’Freddie’ koopt om de twee bedrijven van de ondergang te redden. Ook mogen de giganten ongelimiteerd geld lenen bij de overheid en de Federal Reserve (Fed), het stelsel van Amerikaanse centrale banken.

Critici reageren woedend op het plan van Paulson en beschuldigen de overheid ervan dat de belastingbetaler opdraait voor de geldinjectie. Het Amerikaanse Congres schat de kosten van het noodplan op 25 miljard dollar. Het gezaghebbende Britse tijdschrift The Economist merkte cynisch op dat Fannie en Freddie nu zelf in staat zijn biljetten bij te drukken, omdat ze onbeperkt geld mogen lenen bij de overheid en de Fed. Econoom bij ING Maarten Leen wil niet zo ver gaan en stelt dat de belastingbetaler uiteindelijk profiteert van de geldinjectie. Volgens Leen mag je aannemen dat er de afgelopen weken sterk is gespeculeerd op dalende koersen. In een maand tijd ging de koers van Fannie Mae met 45 procent onderuit. Die van Freddie Mac zakte zelfs met 60 procent. Leen: „Een geldinjectie kan die speculaties stoppen en zal het vertrouwen in de Amerikaanse economie weer enigszins herstellen. Voor zo lang het duurt natuurlijk.”

Leen ziet bovendien geen andere oplossing voor Fannie en Freddie. „Op dit moment zijn de twee hypotheekinstellingen essentieel voor de Amerikaanse economie.” De beursgenoteerde hypotheekgiganten, gesteund door de overheid, staan garant voor de helft van de hypotheken in de VS, in totaal 5000 miljard dollar. Bovendien leunen Amerikaanse banken sterk op Fannie en Freddie. De twee zijn opgezet om de huizenmarkt – waar de prijzen jarenlang spectaculair stegen maar nu in rap tempo dalen – van geld te voorzien door massaal hypotheken van banken te kopen. „Als deze instellingen wegvallen, dan komen banken in nog grotere problemen”, aldus Leen.

Dat kunnen de Amerikaanse banken er niet bij hebben. Wachovia, een van de grootste banken van de VS, maakte deze week bekend een kwartaalverlies van 8,5 miljard dollar te hebben geleden vanwege afschrijvingen op slechte hypotheken. Ook zakenbank Merill Lynch is er slecht aan toe. Dit kwartaal moest de zakenbank 9,4 miljard dollar afboeken waardoor het verlies uitkomt op 4,6 miljard dollar. Toch zijn er een paar lichtpuntjes. Zo krabbelde de dollar deze week langzaam op. Dat is onder meer toe te schrijven aan de toespeling die Fed-president van Philadelphia, Charles Plosser, maakte op renteverhoging. Belangrijk om nieuwe investeerders aan te trekken, aldus Plosser. Bovendien moet het de inflatie, in juni 5 procent, beteugelen.

De olieprijs, die onlangs een record van 147 dollar per vat bereikte, reageerde positief op de aantrekkende dollar, met een daling van twintig dollar in een week tijd. Volgens econoom Leen speelt de reddingsactie door Paulson bij Fannie en Freddie een cruciale rol bij de opleving van de dollar. „Een kwart van alle Amerikaanse effecten (obligaties, opties en aandelen, red.) gekocht door buitenlandse investeerders is afkomstig van Freddie Mac en Fannie Mae. Vertrouwen is voor deze investeerders essentieel. Dat het nu lijkt alsof de overheid de twee hypotheekgiganten nationaliseert, is slechts een herhaling van de geschiedenis.” Fannie Mae werd in 1938 opgericht als overheidsbedrijf om de Amerikaanse economie uit het slop te trekken.

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July 24 (Bloomberg) -- Ford Motor Co., the world's third- biggest automaker, posted a record quarterly loss of $8.7 billion and accelerated a shift to fuel-efficient vehicles to wean itself from money-losing trucks.

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http://finance.google.com/finance?q=NYSE%3AWM

Onder de 4..... beleggers laten het weer lopen... (laagste stand 3,23 14-juli).
De TT is best wel slim gekozen.

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AFS

-In de VS wordt een dezer dagen een wet aangenomen die de problemen in de huizenmarkten mee moet helpen oplossen. Allemaal onzin. Die wet is maximaal een zeer kostbare PR-exercitie die de indruk moet wekken dat iedereen z'n stinkende best doet om iets aan de ontstane problemen te doen. Gaat niet helpen. De kern van alle problemen is de te ver opgelopen opgetelde schuldenpositie die niet meer betaald kan worden. En daar wordt niets aan gedaan. Deze wet vertraagt het noodzakelijke aanpassingsproces en zorgt voor een herverdeling van de financiele pijn die onvermijdelijk is.

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Op donderdag 24 juli 2008 18:09 schreef Drugshond het volgende:

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Hoezo behind the curve.

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Op donderdag 24 juli 2008 09:31 schreef Aether het volgende:

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Bron: Trouw.

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Op donderdag 24 juli 2008 23:44 schreef agter het volgende:

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Mooi artikel Aether.
Ik voorspel een nog zwakkere dollar...+ inflatie.
Vraag me tevens af hoelang de Aziaten nog dollars blijven kopen.

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Lindsey Williams was on Jeff Rense the following night after Cliff High.

Lindsey said he received a phone call from a former oil executive who he knew from the trans-alaska pipeline. Lindsey has been ordered/threatened to stop selling his "Oil non crisis DVDs". As of now Lindsey has stopped selling his DVD's and has shut down his website.

The oil executive proceded to tell Lindsey what will happen in the world in the next 12 months. Lindsey said everything they have told him before has come to pass exactly as they said it would.

What follows are the notes I took of Lindseys report of the conversation he had with the oil exec:

Within 12 months Crude Oil will be $50 a barrel. $2 - $2.50 gallon.

2 Major Oil fields, in Indonesia and North of Russia are ready - They are going to Flood the world with Oil. There is More crude oil in these two oil fields than all of the middle east combined.

This will Bankrupt the Arab World, almost overnight. Destroy their economies.

They are going to build up the economies of Indonesia and Russia.

US will not be allowed to produce new oil fields. No significant amount of crude oil will be produced in the US.

Lindsey explains: When the Arab economies collapse they will No longer be able to buy US Treasury bills and Federal Reserve Issues to prop up the US national debt. The Arabs will dump their currency reserves of trillions of US dollars onto the market. Within 4 - 5 weeks of crude oil reaching $50 a barrel the US dollar will collapse - Leading to NAU - New currency.

John Mccain is their man.

Iran must be stopped. They would rather bankrupt Iran economically than invade it. Although they didn't say they wouldn't invade it.

Just before the election they are going to do something to ensure John Mccain is elected president. [False flag? Attack Iran? $50 Oil? Assassinate Obama?]

What can we expect in the US?

He (the oil executive) kept repeating over and over "America will see a financial collapse that it will take years to come out of. It will take years for America to come out of its financial condition."

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Op vrijdag 25 juli 2008 00:25 schreef Drugshond het volgende:

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Ik vraag me wel meer dingen af sinds de kickstart vanaf #01.
Qua momentum hebben de blogs het voordeel.... en binnen een maand/weken ga ik 40K in een kluisje stoppen.

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Op vrijdag 25 juli 2008 08:26 schreef ItaloDancer het volgende:

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In een kluisje?

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2 Major Oil fields, in Indonesia and North of Russia are ready - They are going to Flood the world with Oil. There is More crude oil in these two oil fields than all of the middle east combined.

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Op vrijdag 25 juli 2008 02:45 schreef Ali_Kannibali het volgende:
Ik kwam wel een HEEL aparte analyse/voorspelling tegen. Ben benieuwd of er iets van uit gaat komen.
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Op vrijdag 25 juli 2008 08:43 schreef simmu het volgende:

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heb je ook een bronvermelding?

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The reserve requirements on savings accounts is zero. Every penny is immediately lent out. The money that people think is in their "savings account" simply isn't there.

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Op vrijdag 25 juli 2008 08:36 schreef Basp1 het volgende:

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Dan ben ik heel benieuwd welke velden men het over heeft.

Volgens mij je reinste onzin die analyse.

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States Slammed by Tax Shortfalls
By CONOR DOUGHERTY, AMY MERRICK and ANTON TROIANOVSKI
July 24, 2008; Page A1

The stumbling U.S. economy is forcing states to slash spending and cut jobs in order to close a projected $40 billion shortfall in the current fiscal year.

That gap -- identified Wednesday in a survey by the National Conference of State Legislatures -- is more than triple the size of the previous year's. It is the result of broad economic weakness at the state and local levels that could cause pain throughout this year and into 2010. Sales-tax collections, for example, have been hurt by the housing slump and high gasoline prices, which are prompting cutbacks in consumer spending. Personal income-tax collections have been hit by rising unemployment, while corporate income-tax collections have been eroded by falling profits.

"We expect it to get worse before it gets better," said Corina Eckl, fiscal-program director of the National Conference of State Legislatures. The conference's new report describes the shortfalls states face in their budgeting process for the current fiscal year, which began in July.


Summaries of regional activity
A separate survey of economic conditions by the Federal Reserve's 12 regional banks -- the "beige book" -- said economic activity was sluggish across most of the U.S. Consumer spending was "mixed, weak, or slowing" in nearly all areas, despite the distribution of billions of dollars in economic-stimulus checks.

The beige-book survey also said companies are increasingly worried about growth prospects and inflation. Indeed, also on Wednesday, discount chain Costco Wholesale Corp. warned that its profits will fall "well below" Wall Street's expectations for its fiscal fourth quarter ending Aug. 31. It blamed the speed of manufacturers' price increases.

Unlike the federal government, most states are required to balance their budgets. Most have so far resisted tax increases, instead opting for raising prices on things like tolls and college tuition, and cutting back on services like education and health care. Some chose one-time measures such as tapping rainy-day funds that were built up in flusher times. That could lead to future cutbacks if the economy doesn't bounce back in coming months.

The spreading economic weakness also is affecting localities, which are being ravaged by falling property-tax collections and a decline in state aid. In Minnesota, the city of Duluth plans to stop operating its Fun Wagon -- a free trailer stuffed with games and cookout supplies for a neighborhood party. Other services, including a city pool and a fire hall, also are being eliminated.

RELATED


• Read the full report
• Fed Snapshot Isn't Pretty Picture
• Oil Retreat Takes Pressure Off Fed
• Costco's Profit Is Squeezed by Jump in Costs
• Video: Beige Book's Gloomy Picture Several state-university systems are being forced to raise tuition and tighten their belts. Regents at the University of California and California State University system have raised undergraduate fees 7.4% and 10% annually, respectively, to cope with rising enrollment and other costs. For a University of California student, it represents an increase of $490 to $7,126, excluding miscellaneous fees charged by individual campuses.

Virginia Tech is raising its tuition for in-state undergraduates by nearly 11%. "For us it was a matter of, 'Are we going to take professors out of the classroom, or are we going to raise tuition?'" said Lawrence G. Hincker, associate vice president for university relations.

States are also reducing their payrolls and programs. Vermont is cutting about 400 jobs through attrition, while Tennessee is using buyouts and possibly layoffs to eliminate about 3,000 government jobs.

Social services have been hit hard. Ten states have made targeted cuts in Medicaid, while three have cut contributions to the Temporary Assistance for Needy Families program.

Bonnie Laughlin, a 52-year-old resident of Hiram, Maine, who cares for four foster children, has seen her daily reimbursement from the state for caring for the children decline from $60 to $52.50 per child this year. The state has also eliminated money for "respite care" -- when foster parents can get away from their kids -- as well as reimbursement for recreation activities for the children.

For instance, Ms. Laughlin has been paying for dance lessons for her 10-year-old autistic foster daughter, but she's not sure she'll be able to keep it up. "It definitely puts hardships on families," Ms. Laughlin said.

The Primary Culprit

The housing slump, now well into its second year, is the primary culprit. The decline in home sales has cut into real-estate transfer taxes. Construction spending and employment have declined. Fewer home sales have resulted in lower sales of home furnishings and washing machines, eating into sales taxes.

Of course, for many states, today's budget woes stem at least partly from expanding their services during the good times and not planning enough for the inevitable downturn.

REAL TIME ECONOMICS



• Read the latest news and analysis on the economy at WSJ.com's Real Time Economics blog.
• Beige Book: Isolated Bright Spots May Be Dimming
• Summer Beige Book: Staycations and Higher PricesMeantime, states are dealing with shortfalls of many kinds. According to the report by the association of state legislatures, 22 states are reporting sales taxes that are below forecast. In nine of those states, the collections were below forecasts that had already been reduced downward. Seventeen states had a shortfall in corporate income tax, 11 states were behind on personal-income taxes, and 11 were also behind on miscellaneous taxes such as insurance-premium taxes.

At the same time, costs are rising. Over the past several years, many states have taken over more of their K-12 education funding from local governments, while many others have expanded Medicaid.

Many energy-producing states have been spared some of this pain, and have actually benefited from rising food and gasoline prices. Texas, Wyoming and Colorado have all seen job and income growth continue to rise, which has helped them avoid budget problems.

In Massachusetts, state officials are trying to close loopholes that let companies reduce their tax bills in part by shifting income out of state. "You couldn't afford to simply waste $500 million a year by allowing tax avoidance," says Noah Berger, executive director of Massachusetts Budget and Policy Center, a Boston think tank. The state says it expects to generate $291 million from its crackdown on corporate tax loopholes.

In Illinois, Gov. Rod Blagojevich unilaterally cut $1.4 billion from the $59 billion budget the legislature sent him in May. The state says it expects to save an additional $500 million through belt-tightening at state agencies.

Heavy Cuts

The governor's changes include heavy cuts in spending for education and health care. The state plans about $600 million in health-care cuts, including making hospitals and nursing homes wait longer for Medicaid reimbursements.

Health services, among states' fastest growing costs, are being cut across the country. Ohio is closing two mental-health facilities as state agencies look to shed $733 million. The state is also cutting a program that provides free nicotine patches to smokers.

Virginia's funding for hospitals and nursing homes to care for the poor and elderly was reduced by $76 million over the next two fiscal years, according to an analysis by the Commonwealth Institute for Fiscal Analysis in Richmond, Va. Maine is cutting money for foster care, mental-health services and "flexible funding," which social workers can spend on specific needs for clients.

"Our concern is the fact that the government has assumed responsibility for these things, and now they're basically saying, 'We can't do it anymore,'" says Richard Farnsworth, executive director of Portland, Maine-based Woodford Family Services. "Now the question is, 'Who's going to do it?'"

It's not just humans who are feeling the squeeze. Maine has already closed one fish hatchery, and the state isn't expected to offset the rising price of fuel and fish food, said fishery biologist Forrest Bonney. "In recent years we expanded our stocking program, however all of a sudden we're faced with the additional expense of feeding and transporting" fish, Mr. Bonney said.

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Op vrijdag 25 juli 2008 09:39 schreef simmu het volgende:

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bron

*krak* en daar gingen de staatsbudgetten. maar het valt heus mee hoor, met die recessie en werkeloosheid

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Op vrijdag 25 juli 2008 09:49 schreef Basp1 het volgende:

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Hier heb je nog een mooie.

CALIFORNIA GOVERNOR SCHWARZENEGGER TO CUT STATE WORKER PAY TO $6.55 AN HOUR

Werk je voor de overheid wordt opeens je loon verminderd omdat het buget niet meer uitkomt.

Even een berekening 6.55 /uur * 160 = 1048 bruto dollar per maand waarvan de werknemer dan moet gaan rondkomen.

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Op vrijdag 25 juli 2008 08:56 schreef Basp1 het volgende:

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Ik verwacht dat hij het bij http://www.rense.com/ vandaan heeft als ik de kop zo lees.
Dat is nu niet bepaald een betrouwbare bron gebleken in de loop der jaren.

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Op vrijdag 25 juli 2008 13:47 schreef Ali_Kannibali het volgende:

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Het kwam inderdaad van rense, indirect. De spreker is echter Lindsay Williams.

Hier is het tweede uur van het interview te downloaden.

http://www.mediafire.com/?exxwr7zjy9u