Weeralarm V.S. #2 Extreem weer - Tornado touchdown!

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May 10, 2010 could go down as a day storm chasers, weather enthusiasts and residents of the southern Plains remember for a long time. Current data suggests that a significant outbreak of severe weather and tornadoes is likely to occur across parts of Oklahoma and Kansas, and possibly stretching into western Missouri. As such, the Storm Prediction Center has issued a Day-2 Moderate risk, which is very likely to be upgraded to High Risk for tomorrow.
Intense thunderstorms are expected to develop along and just east of a dryline that will enter western Oklahoma during the afternoon. For several days leading up to this event, there was some indication that a strong cap could prevent storms from firing until around dark (or at all), but more recent model runs have shown weaker CIN, as well as precipitation breaking out on the NAM reflectivity model; at this time, it does appear that the cap will break. A very moist, unstable air mass will be in place across the risk area, along with tremendous wind energy. Directional shear will be favorable for strongly rotating supercells, which are likely to be long-lived and would have the potential to produce strong to violent tornadoes. Right now there is a question as to how many storms people should expect. That is hard to predict; there could be 2-3 isolated monster storms all day, or multiple supercells could explode across the region and continue into the evening. Regardless of that, people in the risk area should definitely take some time now to review all critical weather safety information. Be sure you have a plan in place, and pay close attention to watches and warnings. This could easily be the biggest chase day of the year as well, with numerous storm chasers flocking to Oklahoma and Kansas from as far away as Montana, Michigan, Minnesota and even Europe! Vortex2 will also be out. It goes without saying that tomorrow will be a memorable weather day on a variety of levels. Be safe if you're heading out!