Bulls, Bears & Bucks #06: Dollar zakt verder; Beurzen roodgekleurd

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Op dinsdag 11 maart 2008 13:54 schreef gronk het volgende:
Dollar -1 cent, terwijl dit haast schreeut om de kreet 'government bail-out' . [afbeelding]

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Op dinsdag 11 maart 2008 13:56 schreef Perrin het volgende:
Gooi open die geldsluizen!

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Op dinsdag 11 maart 2008 14:02 schreef freud het volgende:
Klinkt gewoon als een groep wanhopige mensen eigenlijk... als je de huidige beurs zou moeten typeren als mens, dan is hij manisch depressief [afbeelding].

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Op dinsdag 11 maart 2008 18:03 schreef Basp1 het volgende:
Kan iemand mij uitleggen waarom de fed dollars aan de ecb verstrekt?
Of te wel wat houden de 'currency swap lines' in?

http://www.fd.nl/csFdArti(...)diteit_te_garanderen

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As part of an effort to increase dollar liquidity around the world, the Fed coordinated with other central banks to lend simultaneously to depository institutions outside of its jurisdiction, which it cannot lend to directly. On December 11th, the ECB held a simultaneous auction, in dollars, and awarded $10 billion at the rate determined by the Fed's auction.[6] To facilitate the provision of U.S.-dollar liquidity by these other central banks, the Fed arranged currency swap lines with the ECB and the SNB in amounts of $20 billion and $4 billion, respectively.

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Bush stottert en struikelt naar het eind

Hoe is het deze dagen eigenlijk met president Bush? Weinig van hem gehoord de laatste tijd. Volgens de Washington Post gaat de president, die volgend jaar januari vertrekt, door het leven als lame duck.

De grote en kleine kwesties in zijn eigen land en de rest van de wereld lijken hem weinig meer te interesseren. Op een vraag of Turkije zich snel uit Irak moest terugtrekken, kwam hij niet verder dan een vaag 'zo snel mogelijk'. Toen de journalist doorvroeg hij dagen of weken bedoelde, hakkelde de president nogmaals 'zo snel mogelijk'.

Ook met een vraag over olie, toch één van de stokpaardjes van de familie Bush, wist de president geen raad. "Je voorspelt een olieprijs van meer dan vier dollar per vat?", vroeg hij verbaasd. Het nieuws zong al dagen rond en alle grote nieuwsmedia hadden erover gerapporteerd. Het leek niet te doorgedrongen in het Witte Huis.

Voor de Washington Post was het geblunder van Bush aanleiding om Bush af te schilderen als lame duck, zoals een krachteloze en machteloze president vaak wordt genoemd aan het eind van zijn ambtstermijn.

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Op dinsdag 11 maart 2008 19:14 schreef SeLang het volgende:
Is dit een voorbode van minder renteverlagingen?
Iedereen rekent nu op 0,75% verlaging volgende week maar dat zou wel eens minder kunnen worden.

De FED weet natuurlijk ook wel dat ze de dollar aan het slopen zijn. Het tijdelijk verhogen van liquiditeit op een alternatieve manier zoals deze is misschien wel beter.

Ik denk dat deze nieuwe approach ook minder inflatoir werkt dan renteverlagingen.

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Op dinsdag 11 maart 2008 19:40 schreef simmu het volgende:
naar wat ik hieruit: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Term_auction_facility begrijp, is het de bedoeling om de dollarliquiditeit te bevorderen

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Uses
Currency swaps are often combined with interest rate swaps. For example, one company would seek to swap a cash flow for their fixed rate debt denominated in US dollars for a floating-rate debt denominated in Euro. This is especially common in Europe where companies "shop" for the cheapest debt regardless of its denomination and then seek to exchange it for the debt in desired currency

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De Fed gaat maximaal $ 200 mrd in de markt pompen

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De ECB zal voor een bedrag tot $ 30 mrd aan dollars verstrekken, de SNB $ 6 mrd. Dit is een verhoging met respectievelijk $ 10 mrd en $ 2 mrd.
De Bank of England gaat voglende week GBP 10 mrd

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Op dinsdag 11 maart 2008 21:16 schreef ItaloDancer het volgende:
Grootste procentuele stijging op Wall Street van de afgelopen vijf jaar.

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Op dinsdag 11 maart 2008 20:13 schreef ItaloDancer het volgende:

[..]

Mee eens al is het wel zo dat diegene die VEEL te veel risico hebben genomen, weer uit de wind worden gehouden. Waardoor het credo toch blijft: neem zoveel mogelijk risico. Speel niet op safe. Als het mis gaat is de redding nabij. Blaas maar op die ballon. Als je even buiten adem bent, blazen wij wel verder

Dow +333 punten as we speak...

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Will the Fed's Latest Effort Mean a Smaller Rate Cut?

The Federal Reserve and other central banks teamed up to get hundreds of billions of dollars in fresh funds to cash-starved credit markets, allowing financial firms to use securities backed by home mortgages as collateral for central bank loans.

Stocks surged, bonds fell and the long-suffering U.S. dollar rose in reaction to the moves, a sign financial markets saw the plan as a viable remedy to ease a crisis that has threatened world economic growth.

Still, two questions emerged: will the Fed's latest action be enough to ease the credit crisis and will it mean a smaller interest-rate cut at next week's policy meeting?

In the latest effort to ease a credit contraction that has disrupted global finance, the Fed, Bank of Canada, Bank of England, European Central Bank and Swiss National Bank announced a series of aggressive measures to boost liquidity. It was the second time in three months that central banks from around the globe had launched coordinated efforts.

"In the near term, the Fed and global central banks have provided the thing everyone needed, and that's cash,'' said Martin Blum, head of emerging markets research at UniCredit in Vienna. "The actions ... deal with this issue by making it easier for banks to get cash, and that's important.''

The Fed expanded its securities lending program, offering up to $200 billion of highly-liquid U.S. Treasuries to primary dealers, secured for 28 days. It also significantly expanded the types of securities that can be used as collateral for loans. In effect, the plan allows banks to exchange unwanted mortgage notes for easy-to-sell government securities.

However, the U.S. central bank also said it would not accept private mortgage-backed securities that credit ratings agencies had put under review for possible downgrades.

That takes a bite out of the eligible debt, although the Fed said there may be as much as $1 trillion that would qualify for the auctions.

The Fed's moves came after some huge holders of mortgage-linked debt received demands for more cash as the value of the securities they held plunged. Investors, paralyzed by fears of a market shutdown, have shunned large sectors of the debt market, causing prices to tumble and leaving many offers for sales unfilled.

The action came on the back of an announcement from the Fed on Friday that it would expand auctions of short-term cash to $100 billion in March and launch a series of repurchase agreements expected to be worth $100 billion, bringing the total of recently announced actions to a hefty $400 billion.

Smaller Rate Cut?

The Fed has shaved 2.25 percentage points from benchmark interest rates since mid-September in an effort to offset the impact of the credit tightening. Economists widely expect at least another half-point reduction when the Fed's policy-setting committee meets next week.

But Goldman Sachs economist Jan Hatzius said the latest steps from the Fed make a more aggressive cut less likely.

"This announcement makes clear that Fed officials are pulling out all the stops they can think of to deal with financial stress through the increased provision of liquidity into the system,'' he wrote in a note to clients. "To the extent they see this as substituting for rate cuts, this should reduce the probability of a 75 basis point rate cut next Tuesday.''

As part of the latest effort, the European Central Bank said it would auction up to $15 billion for a term of 28 days, the Swiss National Bank said it would auction $6 billion and the Bank of Canada said it would it provide about $4 billion.

Despite the positive market reaction, some analysts questioned whether the latest round of central bank efforts would have much staying power. Earlier efforts by the Fed and its counterparts were successful in reviving markets for a short time, only to see them unravel again when the next bout of credit turmoil emerged.

"This Fed action is good for a day or two,'' said Michael Cheah, senior portfolio manager at AIG SunAmerica Asset Management in Jersey City, New Jersey.

"There are three problems in the market. One is the price of money, then liquidity and counterparty risk. The Fed can do all it can in the first two areas by trying to reduce (interest rates) and the price of money. However, these moves are not going to mitigate the counterparty risk,'' he said.

Banks have essentially lost faith in each other after seven months of market unrest, making them reluctant to lend money to one another and driving up borrowing costs for the consumers and companies that power the world economy.

The Fed said its new lending facility will operate through weekly auctions that will start on March 27. It also said it was increasing existing currency swap lines with the ECB and SNB, allowing those two central banks to offer more U.S. dollars in their respective markets.

The U.S. Federal Reserve and other central banks teamed up to get hundreds of billions in fresh funds to cash-starved credit markets, allowing financial firms to use home mortgages as collateral.

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Op dinsdag 11 maart 2008 21:42 schreef SeLang het volgende:

Met AAA rated securities als collateral kan men nu bij de FED treasuries lenen die wel door iedereen worden vertrouwd en dus kunnen worden verhandeld. Zo voorkomen ze dat het financiele systeem vastloopt.