Hier dusquote:Op maandag 10 maart 2008 20:01 schreef Perrin het volgende:
Waar haal je die vandaan Drugshond? Briljante cartoons
quote:Fed's hands tied by weak dollar
http://money.cnn.com/2008(...)stversion=2008031011
Yes, the economy is in rough shape. But if the Fed keeps cutting rates, it risks further weakening the anemic dollar...and spurring more inflation.
By Paul R. La Monica, CNNMoney.com editor at large
Last Updated: March 10, 2008: 11:52 AM EDT
NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- The Fed is in a bind. The report last week showing a loss of 63,000 jobs in February was the clearest sign yet that the economy may be heading into recession...if it isn't already in one.
But can the Federal Reserve really afford to cut interest rates by another three-quarters of a percentage point next week, as some are predicting? With inflation still a major cause for concern, the Fed is running out of wiggle room if it hopes to successfully accomplish both of its mandates: keeping inflation in check and ensuring that the economy continues to grow at a steady pace.
The dollar hit a three-year low against the yen Friday and is trading at a near all-time low against the euro. And if the Fed keeps slashing interest rates to prop up the economy, it risks further weakening the dollar.
And that could spur more inflation in commodities such as oil, gold, corn and wheat. In addition, the weak dollar is likely to make the price of imported goods more expensive.
TalkBack: Are you more worried about inflation or the weak job and housing markets?
The Fed has to be aware of this and cannot continue to repeatedly hit the rate-cut button.
To be sure, the weak job market should help control inflation since increasing salaries are typically the biggest contributor to rising prices. "Current subdued wage gains and economic weakness in the first half of 2008 should help squash inflation fears over the next few months," wrote David Kelly, chief market strategist with JPMorgan Funds in a note Monday morning.
But inflation is not going away. In fact, according to a recent semiannual survey of investment advisors conducted by Schwab Institutional, a division of brokerage firm Charles Schwab, 62% of advisors surveyed now expect a rise in inflation over the next six months, up from 53% who thought inflation would increase when the survey was last conducted in July 2007.
I'm sure this next comment will anger many that are struggling in these tough economic times but we have to realize that recessions are inevitable parts of economic cycles. The Fed has to do everything it can to make sure that recessions are brief and not too painful but it is irresponsible to forget about the inflation risk.
It's also absurd to suggest that the Fed has sat back and done nothing to try and minimize the pain in the housing and credit markets. The central bank has created a new process, the Term Auction Facility, to lend money to banks in need of short-term funding at a lower interest rate than these banks would normally get by borrowing directly from the Fed at the discount rate.
And the Fed has already cut interest rates by a total of 225 basis points, from 5.25% to 3%, since last September. Many economists and market strategists see the fed funds rate at 2% by late spring. The Fed will be hard-pressed to cut rates much lower than that or it risks creating more problems down the road.
Recession? Who knows?
Keep in mind, one of the most difficult things about a recession is figuring out when they start and when they end.
The National Bureau of Economic Research, the official arbiter of recessions, didn't declare a recession began in March 2001 until November of that year. By then, the Fed had already slashed interest rates and the recession was over, though the NBER didn't say as much until July 2003.
Even so, the chairman Alan Greenspan erred on the side of caution and kept cutting rates. As of June 2003, the Fed Funds rate was just 1%, where it stayed for a year.
We all know what happened next. Hopefully, current Fed chair Ben Bernanke will act more cautiously and not drop the ball on inflation. Another rate cut or two might be the right tonic for this economy. But we also need to sit back and wait for the effects of the previous rate cuts to be fully realized before urging the Fed to keep cutting and cutting.
Bringing interest rates below 2% at a time when oil is over $105 a barrel, gold is marching towards $1,000 an ounce and the dollar is as anemic as it is compared to other leading global currencies seems not only reckless but dangerous.
quote:Cheney wil Opec aansporen om olieproductie te verhogen
De Amerikaanse vicepresident Dick Cheney gaat aan Saoedi-Arabië, belangrijk lid van de organisatie van olie-exporterende landen (Opec), vragen om het kartel aan te sporen om zijn olieproductie te verhogen. Doel is de prijsstijgingen van de olie te vertragen.
"Ik ben er zeker van dat er energiekwesties aangehaald zullen worden", zei de woordvoerster van het Witte Huis, Dana Perino, aangaande de reis van Cheney naar het Midden-Oosten volgende week. "Natuurlijk willen we een verhoging van de productie." De olieprijzen plooiden bij de opening van de beurs in New York licht terug na de recordhoogtes van vorige week, toen er een prijs van 106,54 dollar per vat bereikt werd in New York en van 103,98 dollar in Londen.
De recordjacht was ten dele te verklaren door het behoud van de productiequota binnen de Opec. De prijs van een vat Opec-olie bereikte vrijdag overigens ook een record (99,16 dollar), zo maakte de organisatie maandag nog bekend. (afp/gb)
Thx to Jogy.quote:How Low Can The Dollar Go? Zero Value
2008-03-09
Bron : funnymoneyreport
The corporate controlled media is finally starting to talk about the economic problems that the alternative media and assorted precious metals advocates have been talking about for years now. We are facing a potential inflationary depression. Independent estimates of the M3 money supply show that we are seeing an annual increase in the M3 money supply by around 16 to 17 percent. The Federal Reserve chose to stop producing this report right around the time when these figures began going parabolic on their chart showing a massive increase in the money supply. An increase in the money supply results in a devalued currency and that’s one of the primary reasons why we are seeing the price of gold flirt with the $1,000 an ounce mark and silver explode past the $20 an ounce mark. The U.S. Dollar Index is now treading water around the 72 to 73 mark and it is becoming increasingly clear that the role of the world’s reserve currency is shifting from the U.S. Dollar to the Euro. Some ask how low the U.S. Dollar could go and that answer is simple. The U.S. Dollar could go to zero because it is a fiat currency with no real tangible backing. Every fiat currency in the history of man has been replaced or collapsed and there is nothing fundamentally different between the U.S. Dollar and these other fiat monetary systems of the past.
The people who are in control of the private central banks that fix the value of the U.S. Dollar through their policies are monopoly men. The Federal Reserve consolidated much wealth during the Great Depression by intentionally making money scarce following the excesses of the roaring 1920s. Prior to the Great Depression there were many local community banks. Following the Great Depression the vast majority of banks were under the Federal Reserve’s umbrella. The Federal Reserve was assisted by FDR who had the nerve to blame gold hoarders for the economic problems even though the gold hoarders were only attempting to protect their hard earned wealth. As FDR used the gold hoarders as a scapegoat for the economic problems that were created by the Federal Reserve’s policies, he issued Executive Order 6102 which made any significant amount of gold ownership illegal. The government confiscated a large portion of the American people’s gold and in return issued them paper notes. Following the confiscation, the price of gold was revalued from $20 an ounce to $35 an ounce. The confiscated gold was melted down and hauled off to Fort Knox, KY. Bluntly, what took place during the Great Depression was a giant scam by FDR and the assorted controllers of the Federal Reserve to consolidate more wealth and power under this criminal banking system.
History is repeating itself. Instead of destroying the economy and consolidating wealth through monetary deflation, it looks as if the bankers have decided that they will use monetary inflation as their weapon of choice. Alan Greenspan encouraged member banks to loan out large quantities of money and encouraged individuals to get these loans by setting interest rates at absurdly low levels in the early part of this decade. By making money cheaper, more people went out and got loans and the bankers accommodated the increased demand for loans by providing all sorts of creative financing packages. These packages included adjustable rate mortgages, interest only loans and other risky financial instruments. The bankers knew that this would eventually create a major financial calamity later when interest rates moved higher. The Federal Reserve’s policies is what primarily created the crash in the U.S. housing market and it is disgusting that people are looking to this same institution for a solution to the mess they created in the first place.
There is no doubt that the Federal Reserve is the culprit behind the current housing market collapse. Instead of questioning Alan Greenspan for his mishandling of interest rates in the early part of the decade, Congress decided to hold hearings with mortgage company CEOs. These hearings were nothing more than a dog and pony show designed to place the blame of the housing crisis on these mortgage companies. Although these CEOs do have some responsibility in this mess, the primary responsibility rests with Greenspan because his policies encouraged this market behavior. Greenspan should have been at these hearings especially after he encouraged Arab nations to drop their pegs to the U.S. Dollar. Greenspan actually had the nerve to tell these Arab states that they are having inflation because they are pegged to the U.S. Dollar. This is a criminal act on the part of Greenspan and has undoubtedly played a role in the sharp decline of the U.S. Dollar.
It is entirely insane that we continue to put up with a private central bank that manipulates the value of our money. It is absurd to believe that we have a free market if there is a monolithic private bank fixing the price of our money. The free market should dictate what money is and what money isn’t and if the government issues legal tender it should be gold or silver as the Constitution demands.
As a result of the housing market crash created by the Federal Reserve, smaller banks are failing and being bought out by larger financial institutions. Ben Bernanke has even stated that there will be bank failures as this crisis continues to unfold. This engineered crisis will be used to consolidate more wealth and power amongst fewer corporations. The crisis is also destroying the American middle class financially as an increase in the supply of homes coming on to the market has resulted in a deflationary environment. This has made it more difficult for home owners to use their homes as piggy banks.
The collapse of the U.S. Dollar in the past couple of weeks has been spectacular. In fact, each day this week we saw the U.S. Dollar reach new consecutive new lows. At this point, global confidence in the U.S. Dollar is eroding and it cannot be considered a tangible investment vehicle. Many highly respected economists are predicting further problems for the U.S. Dollar with some predicting that an inflationary depression is right around the corner.
Weakness in the U.S. Dollar has further accelerated due to poor economic data. Generally statistics from the Federal Reserve and the U.S. government understate economic problems so some of this new data that is coming out is fairly disturbing. According to data released by these two institutions, home owner equity is at its lowest levels since 1945, consumer debt has grown to $2.52 trillion and employers slashed more jobs in February than in any other since 2003. These are not good signs at all and the figures are likely understating how bad it really is.
The Federal Reserve and the U.S. government will never be honest about what’s really happening in an economic downturn because these are the two institutions that people look to first when there are economic problems. The U.S. economy has conservatively been in a recession since 2006 and it has taken George W. Bush and Ben Bernanke until now to finally admit that we are having difficulties. These guys are a little late to the party. Of course, if these two men actually told the truth about the monetary system, the U.S. Dollar would likely collapse and millions of folks would descend on Washington DC demanding their heads on a platter. Either way, you aren’t going to get the truth from the Federal Reserve or the U.S. government on the economy. It isn’t in their interest to provide the truth.
In terms of gold and silver, we are likely going to see an increasing amount of price volatility with these two metals on a day to day basis. Short term, central banks are likely going to dump more gold into the marketplace in order to prevent gold from hitting the $1,000 an ounce mark. This is exactly what happened on Friday when a slew of bad economic data came out that would normally be bullish for gold. Instead, gold dropped sharply. The $1,000 an ounce mark represents a key psychological barrier that will likely be broken in the very near future. The central banks want to keep it under this mark as long as they can, because once it goes over this mark it is likely to move much higher. Long term, these two metals will see substantial gains in U.S. Dollar denominated terms. It is not out of the question to see a $5,000 an ounce gold price or a $100 an ounce silver price in the next several years.
The Federal Reserve is stuck between a rock and a hard place. If they raise interest rates to the point where holding U.S. Dollars can outpace inflation they would need to raise them to around 20%. This would hurt not only the American people but the elite financial interests as well. As a result, the Federal Reserve is attempting to manage a slow inflationary decline of the U.S. Dollar which will allow the financial elite to more easily reposition themselves. Inflation hurts the poor and the middle class far more than the financial elite where as a deflation like what we saw during the Great Depression would hurt everybody across the board.
As this financial calamity continues, the corporate controlled media will likely say we are in a recession even though it will resemble more of a depression. Gold and silver remain good hedges against inflation and their price will rise in U.S. Dollar denominated terms. There continues to be more upside to silver but there will also be more short term volatility in silver. There is no doubt that an inflationary depression is a very likely scenario and there is always the chance that the U.S. Dollar could go to zero. This is why having physical gold and silver is always a smart move.
Wat is binnenkort? Dit jaar absoluut. Want Europa gaat ook de gevolgen van een Amerikaanse recessie ondervinden (uiteraard). De inflatie zal wellicht ook wat teruglopen.quote:Op maandag 10 maart 2008 22:28 schreef Stereotomy het volgende:
Denken jullie dat Europa binnenkort nog renteverlagingen gaat vertonen?
Schatting voor de rente in de EU aan het einde van dit jaar: 3.5%.quote:Op maandag 10 maart 2008 23:15 schreef ItaloDancer het volgende:
[..]
Wat is binnenkort? Dit jaar absoluut. Want Europa gaat ook de gevolgen van een Amerikaanse recessie ondervinden (uiteraard). De inflatie zal wellicht ook wat teruglopen.
Maar volgende keer al? Of voor de zomer? Geen ideeVooralsnog is Trichet heel stellig, maar zodra die inflatie ietskes omlaag komt zal er zeker wat afgaan.
Ja, als de ECB de rente verlaagt kun je ervanuit gaan dat vroeg of laat de rente op spaarrekeningen ook wordt verlaagd.quote:Op maandag 10 maart 2008 23:19 schreef Stereotomy het volgende:
En wat ik me ook afvroeg: gaan spaarrekeningen van banken dan vaak ook mee als de centrale bank renteverlagingen aankondigt? Of zijn die mechanismes los van elkaar te zien?
De ECB kijkt alleen naar de inflatie, die geven niks om groeiquote:Op maandag 10 maart 2008 23:15 schreef ItaloDancer het volgende:
[..]
Wat is binnenkort? Dit jaar absoluut. Want Europa gaat ook de gevolgen van een Amerikaanse recessie ondervinden (uiteraard). De inflatie zal wellicht ook wat teruglopen.
Maar volgende keer al? Of voor de zomer? Geen ideeVooralsnog is Trichet heel stellig, maar zodra die inflatie ietskes omlaag komt zal er zeker wat afgaan.
Prima ideequote:Op maandag 10 maart 2008 23:47 schreef gronk het volgende:
BTW, in de categorie 'ander nieuws': omdat de verwachting is dat de economische malaise zich de komente tijd gaat verdiepen, en dat de nodige topics in NWS gaat opleveren, is besloten om dit topic terug te zetten naar [NWS].
(Speelt ook mee dat er in WGR vooral meer persoonlijke financiele dingen worden gepost, en dat hier vooral macro-economische achtergronden worden beschreven..)
Anyway, met dat in het achterhoofd wil ik kijken of ik de komende week de OP kan uitbouwen tot een redelijk overzichtstopic over de aanleiding/ oorzaken en verwachtingen mbt de huidige financiele crisis; ook omdat dat nogal vaak vragen oproept in de trant van 'jah, kan iemand mij uitleggen hoe 't nu eigenlijk zit met die economie enzo''.
In dit topic (en de vorige topics) is al het nodige gepost; dat alleen al levert, samengevat en herschreven, best al een heel aardig verhaal op.
Aardig idee?
Goed idee. Als ik kan meehelpen een soort FAQ op te stellen voor een van de deelgebieden, laat 't me weten.quote:Op maandag 10 maart 2008 23:47 schreef gronk het volgende:
Aardig idee?
Let wel goed op de reële rente he!! Als je een rente van 3% hebt op je geld, maar er is 2,5% inflatie, dan terkt je spaargeld dus maar 0,5% rente... De rente op puur spaargeld moet je dus niet vergeten te corrigeren met inflatiequote:Op maandag 10 maart 2008 23:25 schreef gronk het volgende:
[..]
Schatting voor de rente in de EU aan het einde van dit jaar: 3.5%.
(gespot, ergens, weetnietmeerwaar. Damn.)
quote:The Dublin government appears to be almost powerless to prevent a severe downturn. Ambrose Evans-Pritchard reports
The Irish banking system faces acute strains and may require a phase of temporary nationalisation as the property slump leads to a wave of defaults, according to a leading Irish economist.
Morgan Kelly, of University College Dublin, said the government is almost powerless to stop the downturn becoming a severe slump. "We're in a classic post-bubble recession, yet we can't do anything that a country would normally do in this situation because we're inside the eurozone," Prof Kelly said. "We can't cut interest rates, we can't devalue, and there is a lot less room for fiscal stimulus than people think. We're stuck.
"We have a domestic recession now colliding with a global recession. It is the state of the banking system that will determine how terrible this will be, and frankly that is looking very shaky."
....
The establishment has pretended it's business as usual. But the mood is now changing. The Irish Independent warned this week that the country is sliding into a serious slump.
"Look at all the signs: every single one is screaming that the economy is in big, big trouble. Housing market dead, new car sales dead, consumer confidence is dead, record job losses, exporters being killed off by a strong euro, fuel prices spike, housing repossessions increase," it said.
Ik denk dat dit ook niet echt bevorderlijk is voor de dollarquote:Oorlog kost VS 12 miljard per maand
De oorlog in Irak zal de Amerikanen dit jaar 12 miljard dollar (circa 8 miljard euro) per maand gaan kosten. Dit is drie keer zo veel als de eerste jaren na de Amerikaanse invasie van 2003, meldden Amerikaanse media vandaag op basis van het boek De Drie Biljoen Dollar Oorlog van econoom Joseph Stiglitz en co-auteur Linda Bilmes.
De schrijvers hebben berekend dat in 2017 de oorlogen in Irak en Afghanistan de VS omgerekend in totaal minstens 1,1 tot 1,7 biljoen euro zullen hebben gekost. Bovendien kan daar nog eens 500 miljard euro aan rente bij op worden geteld. De Amerikaanse krijgshandelingen worden grotendeels gefinancierd met geleend geld. Stiglitz en Bilmes hebben onder meer medische kosten voor veteranen meegerekend en komen daardoor hoger uit dan calculaties van het Begrotingsbureau van het Congres (CBO).
Er staat op wikipedia een timeline van de subprime crisis waar alle details opstaan, van New Century FInancial en de Bear Stearns event tot nu.quote:Op dinsdag 11 maart 2008 07:24 schreef freud het volgende:
@gronk: goed idee. Denk dat de rest dan best wat review acties er op los kan laten om het breed begrijpbaar te houden. Misschien in de vorm van een timeline of zo? Beetje het domino effect uitleggen daar.
Dan hebben we alleen een probleem want de inflatie cijfers die worden aangepast door alle statistiek bureaus ter wereld door de ongunstige ontwikkeliingen eruit te halen en te vervangen door andere iets beter ontwikkelende cijfers. Zolang ze maar een positief plaatje kunne blijven presenteren.quote:Op dinsdag 11 maart 2008 07:24 schreef freud het volgende:
Let wel goed op de reële rente he!! Als je een rente van 3% hebt op je geld, maar er is 2,5% inflatie, dan terkt je spaargeld dus maar 0,5% rente... De rente op puur spaargeld moet je dus niet vergeten te corrigeren met inflatie.
handig, al dat gemanipuleerquote:Op dinsdag 11 maart 2008 09:05 schreef Basp1 het volgende:
[..]
Dan hebben we alleen een probleem want de inflatie cijfers die worden aangepast door alle statistiek bureaus ter wereld door de ongunstige ontwikkeliingen eruit te halen en te vervangen door andere iets beter ontwikkelende cijfers. Zolang ze maar een positief plaatje kunne blijven presenteren.
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