Asteroid MN4: Hits Earth in 2029?

LOS ANGELES, California (AP) -- There's a 1-in-300 chance that a recently discovered asteroid, believed to be about 1,300 feet long , could hit Earth in 2029, a NASA scientist said Thursday, but he added that the perceived risk probably will be eliminated once astronomers get more detail about its orbit.

There have been only a limited number of sightings of Asteroid 2004 MN4, which has been given an initial rating of 2 on the 10-point Torino Impact Hazard Scale used by astronomers to predict asteroid or comet impacts, said Donald Yeomans, manager of the Near Earth Object Program at NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Pasadena.

No previously observed asteroid has been graded higher than 1.

On Friday, April 13, 2029, "we can't yet rule out an Earth impact," Yeomans said. "But the impact probability, as we call it, is 300-to-1 against an impact."

The asteroid was discovered in June and rediscovered this month.

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Inmiddels is de Asteroide op de Torino Scale opgewaardeerd naar een "Rating 4"
Ik volg de site: http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov al een jaar of weet ik ut en tot dusverre heb ik slechts EEN maal een asteroide gezien die een impact risk van 2 op de Torino Scale had en dus is dus inmiddels op 4 gezet.



Op de volgende site kan je zien wat de actuele status is van de Near Earth Objects van dit moment
http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/risk

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Don Yeomans, Steve Chesley and Paul Chodas
NASA's Near Earth Object Program Office
December 23, 2004
A recently rediscovered 400-meter Near-Earth Asteroid (NEA) is predicted to pass near the Earth on 13 April 2029. The flyby distance is uncertain and an Earth impact cannot yet be ruled out. The odds of impact, presently around 1 in 300, are unusual enough to merit special monitoring by astronomers, but should not be of public concern. These odds are likely to change on a day-to-day basis as new data are received. In all likelihood, the possibility of impact will eventually be eliminated as the asteroid continues to be tracked by astronomers around the world.

This object is the first to reach a level 2 (out of 10) on the Torino Scale. According to the Torino Scale, a rating of 2 indicates "a discovery, which may become routine with expanded searches, of an object making a somewhat close but not highly unusual pass near the Earth. While meriting attention by astronomers, there is no cause for public attention or public concern as an actual collision is very unlikely. New telescopic observations very likely will lead to re-assignment to Level 0 [no hazard]." This asteroid should be easily observable throughout the coming months.

December 24 Update: 2004 MN4 is now being tracked very carefully by many astronmers around the world, and we continue to update our risk analysis for this object. Today's impact monitoring results indicate that the impact probability for April 13, 2029 has risen to about 1.6%, which for an object of this size corresponds to a rating of 4 on the ten-point Torino Scale. Nevertheless, the odds against impact are still high, about 60 to 1, meaning that there is a better than 98% chance that new data in the coming days, weeks, and months will rule out any possibility of impact in 2029.

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In de loop van de komende dagen, weken zal wel weer duidelijk worden dat het een 'near miss' wordt en zal de 4, terug worden gebracht naar 1 of 0. Anyway... fascinerend dat voor ut eerst in jaren ik een asteroide zie met rating 4...

Zijn er meer Fokkers die die site volgen of dit soort nieuws boeit?
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Het complete overzicht van de Torino Scale kan je hier vinden ---> http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/torino_scale1.html

Ik zie trouwens net op de site dat

Asteroide 2004 YD5 op 19 december 2004 op 0,1 LD langs de aarde ging. Das ook dichter bij dan dat ik ooit heb gezien. Weliswaar was die 'maar' 3.7 m bij 8.4 m groot.... maar toch.... heb er nix van gelezen dat er iets op 38.400 km langs de aarde ging.. zeker achteraf pas gemerkt... En de snelheid... pfff... 25, 37 km per seconde... dat had me een klap gegeven...

PS: 1 LD = 1x Afstand Aarde-Maan = 384.000 KM


Als je ook ziet op die grafiekjes hoe explosief het aantal ontdekkingen van Near Asteroids stijgt dan vraag ik me af wanneer het daadwerkelijk eens raak wordt...

Ja, Ok, maar kijk op onderstaand grafiek eens naar 2000 en 2004...
zie je toch belangrijke verschillen...en zoveel geavanceerder zijn we in 4 jaar niet geworden lijkt me.

En daarbij komt dat we nog niet eens het hele heelal om ons heen in kaart hebben gebracht qua asteroids. Hooguit 10% ofzo.
Als er bijv. eentje uit de richting van de zon komt, zien we hem niet eens en het gebeurd wekelijks dat een asteroide pas gezien wordt als ie ons al gepasseerd is.

Possibility of an Earth Impact in 2029 Ruled Out for Asteroid 2004 MN4

Don Yeomans, Steve Chesley and Paul Chodas
NASA's Near Earth Object Program Office
December 27, 2004

Over the past week, several independent efforts were made to search for pre-discovery observations of 2004 MN4. These efforts proved successful today when Jeff Larsen and Anne Descour of the Spacewatch Observatory near Tucson, Arizona, were able to detect and measure very faint images of asteroid 2004 MN4 on archival images dating to 15 March 2004. These observations extended the observed time interval for this asteroid by three months allowing an improvement in its orbit so that an Earth impact on 13 April 2029 can now be ruled out.

As is often the case, the possibility of future Earth impacts for some near-Earth objects cannot be entirely ruled out until the uncertainties associated with their trajectories are reduced as a result of either future position observations, or in this case, heretofore unrecognized, pre-discovery observations. When these additional observations were used to update the orbit of 2004 MN4, the uncertainties associated with this object's future positions in space were reduced to such an extent that none of the object's possible trajectories can impact the Earth (or Moon) in 2029.

quote:

Op dinsdag 28 december 2004 10:38 schreef Julius_Vanderdecker het volgende:
Psst.. Close encounters: Asteroide op ramkoers - 2029

ja mooi...mijn topic was eerder...

quote:

Op dinsdag 28 december 2004 13:07 schreef Hallulama het volgende:
Het gevaar is reeds geweken geloof ik...

Check again: http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/risk

ja dat schreef ik 3 berichten hierboven ook al