Hurricane Season 2016 #1: Orkanen wereldwijd

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'Cold blob' to be a wild card in the 2016 Atlantic hurricane season

The potential movement of a 'cold blob' of water in the North Atlantic Ocean may be the wild card in the 2016 Atlantic hurricane season, experts say.
The cold blob refers to a large, anomalous area of colder-than-normal sea-surface temperatures, located east of Newfoundland and south of Greenland.
"This area of colder water started to show up a few years ago and has become larger and more persistent during the past couple of years," AccuWeather Atlantic Hurricane Expert Dan Kottlowski said.

Whether or not ocean currents draw cold water from this blob southward into tropical regions of the Atlantic could determine how active the season becomes.
With all potential factors in mind, forecasters are predicting that tropical storms and hurricanes in the Atlantic will total 14 this season, two more than what is considered normal.

If the cooler water migrates southward across the eastern Atlantic, then westward into tropical breeding grounds, it will lower sea-surface temperatures over the region where 85 percent of Atlantic tropical systems develop.
Another possibility is that the water from the cold blob could alter the makeup of deep ocean currents and affect the salinity of the water.

If this happens, the pattern of warming waters that has been occurring since 1995 will reverse, leading to a period of cooling.
Either of these scenarios would limit tropical development in the Atlantic.

If these scenarios don't occur, sea-surface temperatures will remain mostly warmer than normal, likely resulting in a season more active than in the past three years.
Should this be the case, experts believe the current El Niño will weaken, eventually leading to a neutral pattern by the end of the spring or early summer.

"The big question is whether we will go into a La Niña, which is what we're anticipating right now," Kottlowski said.
La Niña is characterized by cooler-than-normal ocean water temperatures in the Pacific Ocean near the equator.
When this occurs, less wind shear is found in the developmental regions of the Atlantic, increasing the potential for a higher-than-normal amount of tropical systems.
"Historically, some hurricane seasons that have followed a transition from El Niño to La Niña have been very active. It's possible we could flip from one extreme to the other, from below-normal seasons the past three years to an above-normal year in 2016," he said.

http://www.accuweather.co(...)recast-2016/56491288

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How Fantala got so strong, and what lies ahead
Conditions were highly favorable for Fantala to intensify. Wind shear has been fairly low over the storm for the last couple of days, around 10 knots, and sea surface temperatures along Fantala’s track have been around 29 - 30°C, plenty warm for tropical development and roughly 1 to 2°C above average (see Figure 3 below). On the other hand, the heat content of the upper ocean has not been particularly large (see Figure 4), which implies that a storm as strong as Fantala could easily churn up cooler water. This makes it even more impressive that Fantala has managed to hang onto Category 4/5 strength for more than 48 hours, especially given its relatively slow motion.

After moving northwest for the last couple of days, Fantala is now crawling westward at about 4 knots as it embarks on a tight cyclonic loop that will turn its course around nearly 180 degrees to a southeast bearing. By late this week, Fantala may veer toward the southwest and could eventually approach Madagascar, though the JTWC projects it to be only a Category 1 or 2 cyclone by week’s end.

https://www.wunderground.(...)t.html?entrynum=3285

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Tropical Cyclone Amos is now nearing a direct strike on Samoa and at least a brush of American Samoa in what would be the strongest tropical cyclone to affect these areas in over three years.

A tropical cyclone warning remains in effect for the Independent state of Samoa while a hurricane watch and tropical storm warning has been posted for all of American Samoa, including Pago Pago.

Tropical Cyclone Amos earlier rapidly intensified to the equivalent of a Category 2 hurricane, but fortunately appears to have levelled off its intensity as it approaches the islands.

https://weather.com/storm(...)oding-dangerous-surf