bronquote:WEATHER Bureau forecasters predict Cyclone Ului will turn south today, tracking parallel with the Queensland coast.
But the US Joint Typhoon Warning Centre has the cyclone easing and veering towards the coast in an area between Fraser Island and Airlie Beach on Friday.
Ului was situated south of the Solomon Islands yesterday, 1400km northeast of Mackay and moving west-southwest at 7km/h. That is about half its speed of the previous day.
Forecaster Geoff Doueal said it was common for models to disagree.
"There's not much (weather conditions) steering this at the moment, so it's a wait and see," he said.
Ului drifted slowly west yesterday, but its longer-term track remained uncertain.
quote:Tropische storm Madagaskar eist 28 doden
Op het eiland Madagaskar is de dodentol na de tropische storm Hubert van vorige week opgelopen tot 28. De meeste slachtoffers vielen nadat een aardverschuiving verschillende huizen vernielde in het district Mananjary, in het zuiden van het land. Dat hebben de lokale media gemeld.
In Mananjary vielen acht doden. Een vierde van de regio stond onder water en de stroom- en watervoorziening waren onderbroken.
De storm maakte meer dan 20.000 mensen dakloos, zo meldt het National Office for Disaster and Risk Management
quote:Sea surface temperature anomalies in the Atlantic are now getting ridiculous, seriously! A huge area is now 2 degrees Celsius above normal but even more concerning is the vast area that is fully 1 degree+ Celsius above normal. To put it in perspective, these temperatures are already where we would expect to see them in... June or July.
Arm Haitiquote:Op zondag 4 april 2010 22:10 schreef Burnie88 het volgende:
Ik vrees dat het echt een drama gaat worden in de Atlantische Oceaan de komende zomer...
69% kans dat een major (cat 4/5) hurricane de kust van de VS gaat treffen. We wait and see...quote:Update April 2010: Busy Hurricane Season ahead
The Atlantic basin is facing a busier-than-usual hurricane season, in part because of record warm water in the ocean, according to the latest hurricane forecast.
Colorado State University's forecast, released Wednesday, calls for 15 named tropical storms this year in the Atlantic basin, which includes the Carribean and Gulf of Mexico. The team says eight will become hurricanes, with sustained winds reaching 74 mph. Four are expected to be major hurricanes — Categories 3, 4 or 5 — with maximum wind speeds of 111 mph or greater.
The average Atlantic hurricane season, going back to 1950, has 10 named storms — six of them hurricanes, and two of those major.
"The probability of a major hurricane making landfall along the U.S. coastline is 69%, compared with the last-century average of 52%," says William Gray, a member of Colorado State's Tropical Meteorology Project.
At the end of March, the part of the Atlantic Ocean where hurricanes form was the warmest it has ever been for this time of year, says Phil Klotzbach, the team's lead forecaster. "The average water temperature is about 78 degrees," he says. Hurricanes need water temperatures of about 80 degrees to form.
Forecasters say the unusually warm water, coupled with the diminishing El Niņo in the Pacific, will lead to an active season. El Niņo produces strong winds at upper levels of the atmosphere that tear developing hurricanes apart, which is what caused the quiet season last year.
Insurance companies, emergency managers and the news media use the forecasts from Colorado State to prepare Americans for the season's likely hurricane threat.
Since 2000, the team has under-forecast the number of named tropical storms and hurricanes four times, over-forecast three times, and been almost right — within two storms — three times, a USA TODAY analysis shows. In 2009, the team predicted 12 named storms and six hurricanes. Nine named storms actually formed, including three hurricanes.
Last month, the private forecasting firm AccuWeather predicted 16 to 18 tropical storms and hurricanes would form, and seven would make landfall on U.S. shores.
Hurricane season runs from June 1 to Nov. 30. The first named storm will be Alex.
Zie ook --> Gezonken booreiland - Grootste milieuramp allertijden?quote:Orkaanseizoen geeft complicaties bij olievervuiling
Het nieuwe orkaanseizoen kan vanaf 1 juni extra complicaties opleveren bij de olievervuiling in de Golf van Mexico. Tegen de tijd dat het orkaanseizoen aanbreekt, is het olieprobleem nog niet opgelost. Dit zegt directeur water Piet Dircke van ingenieursbureau Arcadis.
Arcadis is in de Amerikaanse stad New Orleans betrokken bij de aanleg van stormvloedkeringen en dijkverhogingen na de overstromingen die de orkaan Katrina in 2005 veroorzaakte. De recente olieramp zal niet direct van invloed zijn op de werkzaamheden van het ingenieursbureau bij de bescherming van de stad in Louisiana.
,,De olie zal New Orleans niet bereiken'', weet Dircke. ,,Maar over de combinatie van de olieramp met een hurricane is nog niet goed nagedacht. De rotzooi is dan misschien niet te overzien.''
quote:2010 Atlantic hurricane season could rank in the top ten
The upcoming hurricane season could be a top ten active year, a stark contrast from the relatively calm 2009 season.
AccuWeather.com Chief Hurricane Meteorologist Joe Bastardi predicts a total of 16-18 storms this season. To put that in perspective, only eight years in the 160 years of records have had 16 or more storms in a season.
The season should start early with one or two threats by early July, and stay late with additional threats extending well into October.
His forecast team expects at least six storms to impact the United States coastline--slightly more than one out of every three. In a normal year, one out of every five named storms (20 percent) in the Atlantic basin impacts the United States. In the 2005 season, 36 percent of the storms affected the United States, while 50 percent impacted the U.S. in 1998 and 2008.
"From the standpoint of number of storm threats from the tropics to the U.S. coastline, we will at least rival 2008, and in the extreme case, this season could end up in a category only exceeded by 2005," Bastardi said.
Bastardi observes a rapid warming of the Gulf of Mexico and the collapsing El Nino pattern, which were both characteristics of the 1998 and 2005 seasons.
Named storms moving through the Gulf of Mexico can cause major disruption to both oil and gas production. In 2008, shutdown of production caused a decline in production of 62 million barrels of oil and 408 billion cubic feet of gas. In the record-setting season of 2005, nearly three months of production time was lost.
According to Bastardi, the Atlantic basin looks "textbook" for a major season, with many long track storms that make their way from off the coast of Africa into the western Atlantic and Caribbean heading toward the U.S. coastline.
He adds that in the heart of the season, there will be a "congregation of tracks," or a concentrated area where many of the storm tracks will pass through.
"I believe there will be a bunching of tracks in the area around the Antilles and into the Bahamas," he said.
Hurricane season begins June 1 and ends Nov. 30.
quote:Tropical cyclone could hit India and Bangladesh
Meteorologists are warning a tropical cyclone could hit the east coast of India and Bangladesh putting thousands of homes and scores of lives at risk.
Officials have issued a cyclone alert at ports in the eastern state of Orissa and begun preparations for mass evacuations amid fears of flooding.
Authorities in Bangladesh have also warned fishing boats to stay close to shore and not to venture into deep water.
Early monsoon rains increase the prospect of better rice, corn and soybean crops but cyclones are a regular hazard through the summer months.
India is battered regularly during the stormy season in the Bay of Bengal between April and November.
Last year, 169 people were killed by Tropical Cyclone Aila. Millions more living in India and Bangladesh had their lives disrupted.
And last month, a nor'wester – large storm systems that develop in the Bay of Bengal during the summer – struck the states of Bihar and West Bengal, killing 137 people and leaving thousands of people homeless.
The latest cyclone, named Laila, is gusting at up to 40mph but is still some 400 miles east of Chennai.
Forecasts suggest it could reach speeds of 120mph and – if it continues on course – hit land on Thursday in Andhra Pradesh, home to steel plants and oil refineries and ports.
"The system is likely to intensify into a cyclonic storm and move initially in a north-westerly direction towards Andhra Pradesh coast," said a statement issued by the The India Meteorological Department.
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