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Op zaterdag 25 april 2009 12:53 schreef zoost het volgende:[..]
Deflatie is ook nu het grootste probleem. Maar eerst even,
wat is inflatie nu precies? (Wel lezen he!) Als je de geldvoorraad definieert als Geld+Credit. En je beseft hoeveel Credit er is vernietigd, dan moeten ze de geldkraan heeeel lang open laten staan, voordat ze dat hebben gecompenseerd. Dus voorlopig geen inflatie. Wellicht over een paar jaar.
En nu heel snel je excuus aanbieden aan Nouriel (mijn held)
er is wel een verschil tussen "vast"geld en geld in omloop met een hoge velocity. m.a.w. bovenstaande vlieger gaat niet helemaal op.Dat vernietigingsverhaal zegt niet zoveel. Er is waarde verloren gegaan niet zozeer krediet vernietigd. Als ik een hypotheek heb van 5 ton en mijn huis zakt 3 ton in prijs is mijn krediet nog altijd 5 ton.
Inflatie is ook niet alleen een groei in de geldhoeveelheid. In de praktijk zal het geld ook in omloop moeten zijn. Een bubbel houdt inflatie dus ook tegen. Het ligt er maar net aan of je naar inflatie als geldgroei of inflatie als stijging van goederenprijzen kijkt. Het 1 hangt wel met het ander samen, maar niet 1 op 1
Beetje helderder verwoord door iemand anders:
Money Supply doesn't just depend on the amount of money printed (monetary base). It depends on the velocity of circulation - how many times it changes hand. The problem is that the velocity of circulation is falling faster than the Fed can increase the monetary base. The velocity of circulation is falling because of the recession - rising unemployment, falling investment and falling consumption - People are hoarding cash and not spending it.
This is why many economists argue the increase in the monetary base is absolutely necessary to avoid a deflationary spiral
While the relationship between money supply, money demand, the price level, and the value of money presented above is accurate, it is a bit simplistic. In the real world economy, these factors are not connected as neatly as the quantity theory of money and the basic money market diagram present. Rather, a number of variables mediate the effects of changes in the money supply and money demand on the value of money and the price level.
The most important variable that mediates the effects of changes in the money supply is the velocity of money. Imagine that you purchase a hamburger. The waiter then takes the money that you spent and uses it to pay for his dry cleaning. The dry cleaner then takes that money and pays to have his car washed. This process continues until the bill is eventually taken out of circulation. In many cases, bills are not removed from circulation until many decades of service. In the end, a single bill will have facilitated many times its face value in purchases.
Velocity of money is defined simply as the rate at which money changes hands. If velocity is high, money is changing hands quickly, and a relatively small money supply can fund a relatively large amount of purchases. On the other hand, if velocity is low, then money is changing hands slowly, and it takes a much larger money supply to fund the same number of purchases.
As you might expect, the velocity of money is not constant. Instead, velocity changes as consumers' preferences change. It also changes as the value of money and the price level change. If the value of money is low, then the price level is high, and a larger number of bills must be used to fund purchases. Given a constant money supply, the velocity of money must increase to fund all of these purchases. Similarly, when the money supply shifts due to Fed policy, velocity can change. This change makes the value of money and the price level remain constant.
The relationship between velocity, the money supply, the price level, and output is represented by the equation M * V = P * Y where M is the money supply, V is the velocity, P is the price level, and Y is the quantity of output. P * Y, the price level multiplied by the quantity of output, gives the nominal GDP. This equation can thus be rearranged as V = (nominal GDP) / M. Conceptually, this equation means that for a given level of nominal GDP, a smaller money supply will result in money needing to change hands more quickly to facilitate the total purchases, which causes increased velocity.
The equation for the velocity of money, while useful in its original form, can be converted to a percentage change formula for easier calculations. In this case, the equation becomes (percent change in the money supply) + (percent change in velocity) = (percent change in the price level) + (percent change in output). The percentage change formula aids calculations that involve this equation by ensuring that all variables are in common units.
The velocity equation can be used to find the effects that changes in velocity, price level, or money supply have on each other. When making these calculations, remember that in the short run, output (Y), is fixed, as time is required for the quantity of output to change.
Let's try an example. What is the effect of a 3% increase in the money supply on the price level, given that output and velocity remain relatively constant? The equation used to solve this problem is (percent change in the money supply) + (percent change in velocity) = (percent change in the price level) + (percent change in output). Substituting in the values from the problem we get 3% + 0% = x% + 0%. In this case, a 3% increase in the money supple results in a 3% increase in the price level. Remember that a 3% increase in the price level means that inflation was 3%.
In the long run, the equation for velocity becomes even more useful. In fact, the equation shows that increases in the money supply by the Fed tend to cause increases in the price level and therefore inflation, even though the effects of the Fed's policy is slightly dampened by changes in velocity. This results a number of factors. First, in the long run, velocity, V, is relatively constant because people's spending habits are not quick to change. Similarly, the quantity of output, Y, is not affected by the actions of the Fed since it is based on the amount of production, not the value of the stuff produced. This means that the percent change in the money supply equals the percent change in the price level since the percent change in velocity and percent change in output are both equal to zero. Thus, we see how an increase in the money supply by the Fed causes inflation.
Let's try another example. What is the effect of a 5% increase in the money supply on inflation? Again, we being by using the equation (percent change in the money supply) + (percent change in velocity) = (percent change in the price level) + (percent change in output). Remember that in the long run, output not affected by the Fed's actions and velocity remains relatively constant. Thus, the equation becomes 5% + 0% = x% + 0%. In this case, a 5% increase in the money supply results in a 5% increase in inflation.
The velocity of money equation represents the heart of the quantity theory of money. By understanding how velocity mitigates the actions of the Fed in the long run and in the short run, we can gain a thorough understanding of the value of money and inflation.
[ Bericht 21% gewijzigd door dramatiek op 25-04-2009 13:30:48 ]