De belangrijke punten van Spanje op een rijtje voor straks, gepost door Mantis en Holonia van BA:
CHL scenarios:
1. FC Barcelona 83
2. Real Madrid 77
3. Villareal CF 62
4. Real Betis Seville 61
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5. Seville FC 60
6. Espanyol Barcelona 58
Villarreal-Levante
Villa needs a win to qualify. If they don't, then it's possible that Betis and Sevilla left 'em out of the first 4. (Sevilla is superior, in case of equal points to Villarreal). If Villarreal don't win, then Betis must be held in draw or lose, in Mallorca. If Villarreal lose, then Betis with a draw is in CL position. (Betis is also superior to Villarreal).
Mallorca-Betis
Betis needs to win to end up for sure in CL position. If not, then Sevilla should not win Malaga at home.
Sevilla-Malaga
Sevilla needs not only to win, but also one of Villarreal or Betis not to.
Espanyol-Athletic
Espanyol needs a miracle. To win Athletic at home and Betis, Sevilla to lose. So i rate them already out of CL.
UEFA scenarios (places 5-6)
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5. Seville FC 60
6. Espanyol Barcelona 58
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7. FC Valencia 55
Espanyol-Athletic
Espanyol needs just a point to qualify, as if they lose and Valencia win, then Valencia is 6th (Valencia is superior in case of equal pts)
Valencia-Osasuna
see above
Intertoto scenarios (places 7-8-9)
Too much scenarios here and i don't know who is really motivated for this...
Relegation scenarios (places: 18-19-20)
17. Mallorca RCD 38
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18. Levante UD 37
19. Numancia 28
20. Albacete 28
Mallorca-Betis
needs to win to stay in primera. They need nothing if Levante lose to Villarreal...
Villarreal-Levante
Needs not only to win, but also Mallorca not to. If Mallorca lose at home to Betis, then Levante needs just a point to stay in primera, as they are superior to Mallorca in case of bla bla bla.
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It will be a very interesting round. We must remember, that there are only four important games, and other games are just for fun.
Some things to remember:
- This is the last round. All important games are in the same hour.
- Although there is a theoritcal fight on a place in the intertoto, I think we can say with confidence that most players will not give a special effort in order to ruin their summer vacation.
- Spain, luckily for fans but unluckly for punters, is not Italy. Most games aren't fixed. Most teams that have nothing to play for, still play for their dignity. Some teams do enjoy giving gifts to their rivals, but these teams are not involved in important games in this last round. We will have a fair play in Sunday.
Mallorca - Betis: Both teams must win!
If Mallorca wins, it survives for sure. If they draw, they need that Levante won't win in Villarreal. If they lose, they need Levante to lose in Villarreal.
If Betis wins, they are sure in the CL. If they draw, they need that Sevilla won't win against Malaga, or that Villarreal will lose to Levante. If they lose, they need that Sevilla won't win.
What the teams think about in their heads when they go to the game: Levante won't win in Villarreal, therefore Mallorca should survive even with the draw. Sevilla will win against Malaga and Villarreal won't lose, therefore Betis must win this game.
Villarreal - Levante: Both teams must win.
If Villarreal wins, they are sure in the CL. If they draw, they need that either Betis or Sevilla will not win. If they lose, they needs that Betis will lose or that Sevilla won't win.
If Levante wins, they need Mallorca not to win in order to avoid relegation. If Levante draws, they need Mallorca to lose. If Levante losses, then they are relegated for sure.
What the teams think in their heads, coming to this game: Sevilla and Betis do what they have to do, therefore Villarreal must win this game. Mallorca can get a draw, therefore Levante has no other chance but to win.
Sevilla - Malaga: Sevilla must win, for Malaga it's not imortant, but be careful, this is a regional derbi!
Sevilla needs a win, and that either Betis or Villarreal won't win. A draw and Sevilla is out of CL.
In case Sevilla won't quailfy for CL, they go to UEFA Cup, no matter what the results will be.
What these teams will think when they come to the game: Villarreal wins, but Betis maybe not. Therefore, Sevilla must win and hope for good.
Espanyol - Athletic Bilbao: Espanyol needs must win to have a chance to be in CL (not realistic though), and needs a draw to secure a place in UEFA Cup.
For Bilbao this game isn't important (they need a win to be in intertoto, but who cares about that?).
If Espanyol wins, they need that Betis and Sevilla will lose their games, to be in CL.
If Espanyol draw, then they have no chance for CL, but are sure in UEFA.
If Espanyol losses, they need that Valencia won't win their game.
What these teams will think coming to this game: Sevilla or Betis won't lose, therefore Espanyol can settle for a draw and be happy with UEFA Cup.
Valencia - Osasuna: Valencia must win in order to have a theoritcal chance for UEFA Cup.
If Valencia wins, they need Espanyol to lose. If they don't win, they stay in 7th place, and then they need that: first that Sevilla and not Betis will qualify for the CL. Then that Betis will win the Spanish cup in 2 weeks from now.
What these teams think coming to this game: Why hadn't the season already finished? We want to drink some sangria on the beach!
Statistics are like mini skirts, they give you good ideas but hide the most important things....