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Tropical Low 10U
Tropical low forming to the north of the Pilbara coast.
A tropical low (10U) is gradually forming over waters to the north of the Pilbara coast. It is likely to remain slow moving before taking a southwest track from later in the weekend.
The potential for 10U to become a tropical cyclone is rated Moderate from Sunday onwards.
Another tropical low (11U) may form near the Kimberley later this week. If that low were to develop and strengthen, the chances of 10U (this system) developing will decrease.


Tropical Low 11U
Tropical low (11U) may form off Kimberley coast later in the week.
A tropical low (11U) may form off the Kimberley coast later this week or over the weekend.
The potential for 11U to become a tropical cyclone is rated Low from Friday onwards.
Another tropical low (10U) is forming north of the west Pilbara coast, and that system is rated more likely to develop. If 10U does not end up developing then the ratings for 11U (this system) would increase.

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Op vrijdag 17 januari 2025 09:53 schreef Frutsel het volgende:
[ x ]

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WA is on cyclone alert with forecasters expecting one of two tropical lows they are tracking in the state’s north to deliver powerful winds and heavy rain.

The Bureau of Meteorology said there is a moderate chance one of the systems developing off the Pilbara and Kimberley coasts will intensify into a tropical cyclone as early as Sunday.

“It is unclear which tropical low will intensify however there is increasing confidence that one will, possibly bringing windy conditions and heavy rainfall to the Pilbara coast,” senior meteorologist Joey Rawson told 7NEWS.com.au.

The system is expected to move west or southwest, parallel to the WA coast, in offshore waters.

Rawson said it could intensify to a category 3 severe tropical cyclone.

Category three cyclones can deliver destructive gusts above 200km/h, strong enough to damage structures, roofs, and trees.

“Although the system is likely to remain offshore from the Pilbara coast there is a small chance it may make landfall somewhere along the Pilbara coast,” Rawson said.

“The key for the community is to be prepared, particularly in the Pilbara, and to monitor both the Bureau and EmergencyWA websites.”

Even if a cyclone does not develop, rain and strong winds are expected in the state’s northwest.

There is a high chance of showers in the Pilbara district on Friday, and a thunderstorm is likely in the afternoon or evening.

In the Kimberley there is a very high chance of showers and the chance of a thunderstorm on Friday too.

“Heavy falls (are) possible in the far north, mostly near the coast,” the bureau says.

https://7news.com.au/news(...)kimberley-c-17411254

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The Bureau of Meteorology has announced Tropical Cyclone Sean has officially formed as a category one system, about 150 kilometres north of Western Australia's Pilbara coast.

At 8am on Sunday, the tropical cyclone was described as having sustained winds of 85 kilometres per hour, with gusts of up to 120kph.

The system is currently moving in a west-south-westerly direction at a speed of 13kph.

At 12:30pm on Sunday, WA's Department of Fire and Emergency Services (DFES) upgraded the warning level for the coast between Mardie and Ningaloo, urging people in the area to prepare to take shelter.

DFES also issued an emergency warning for Barrow Island, 50 kilometres off the Pilbara coast, and has urged people on the island to shelter immediately.

Barrow Island is home to part of gas giant Chevron's WA operations and has cyclone-rated accommodation for workers.

https://www.abc.net.au/ne(...)t-wa-coast/104834424

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Karratha recorded 274.4mm of rainfall in the 24 hours to 9am, which was the wettest day on record in any month, according to WeatherZone.

Yesterday's rainfall total exceeded the town's entire monthly January rainfall record of 263.4mm.

https://news.google.com/r(...)U&gl=AU&ceid=AU%3Aen

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56 000 homes destroyed or damaged by Tropical Cyclone Dikeledi in Mozambique

Tropical Cyclone Dikeledi made landfall in Mozambique on January 13, 2025, bringing destructive winds and intense rainfall that have devastated Nampula Province. The cyclone has caused the deaths of at least 11 people, destroyed or damaged more than 55 000 homes, caused severe damage to critical infrastructure, and left over 230 000 people affected.

Tropical Cyclone Dikeledi has claimed 11 lives and left over 234 000 people affected in Nampula Province, Mozambique after making landfall on January 13 with winds up to 160 km/h (98 mph). The storm destroyed and damaged tens of thousands of homes, severely impacting critical infrastructure, livelihoods, and community resilience.

Assessments on January 20 indicated that 31 898 homes have suffered partial damage, while 24 101 have been destroyed. It brings the total number of damaged homes to 55 999 across the province.

The most affected districts include Ilha de Mozambique (50 349 individuals), Mossuril (44 390), Monapo (44 287), Nacala Porto (25 394), Angoche (23 991), and Mogincual (16 500), which together account for 88% of the impacted population. Authorities expect these figures to change as data collection continues.

According to preliminary findings from the Initial Rapid Assessment (IRA), conducted by the Displacement Tracking Matrix (DTM) in collaboration with Mozambique’s National Institute for Disaster Risk Reduction and Management (INGD), approximately 56 729 households have been impacted. An estimated 37 456 individuals live with physical, cognitive, sensory, or psychosocial disabilities among them.

Humanitarian organizations, including INGD and its partners, have identified immediate priority needs like emergency shelter, non-food items (NFIs), water, sanitation, and hygiene (WASH) interventions, and food and healthcare services. Key NFIs required include tarpaulins, mosquito nets, and mattresses.

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A tropical low forming off the coast of WA could turn into a tropical cyclone over the weekend.

The tropical low is is set to form with the monsoon trough northwest of the Kimberley coast on Wednesday afternoon or Thursday.

On Friday, the chance of the system intensifying to a tropical cyclone increases from low to moderate.

The Bureau of Meteorology forecast that by late Sunday, the system “is likely to be over land, reducing the risk of being a tropical cyclone”.

https://www.perthnow.com.(...)e-weekend-c-18163999

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Preparations in Western Australia's north are underway, with a tropical cyclone likely to form off the state's northern coast today.

As of 9am WST on Saturday, a tropical low was about 370 kilometres north-east of Kalumburu and moving in a south-west direction towards WA's Kimberley coast.

The Bureau of Meteorology says there is a high chance it will form into a tropical cyclone by Saturday afternoon, before continuing its path adjacent to the East Kimberley shoreline.

If it does form, the cyclone will be named Errol and the latest projections show it could intensify to a category three system by Tuesday morning.

The bureau's warning zone extends from the King George River mouth to Kuri Bay, while the watch zone captures Kuri Bay to Cockatoo Island.

The north and north-west Kimberley coast could be impacted by increased winds and wave activity from later today and overnight.

The bureau's seven-day forecast projects the cyclone to track out to sea, before moving back towards the West Kimberley coastline at the end of next week.


https://news.google.com/r(...)U&gl=AU&ceid=AU%3Aen

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There are no signs of tropical activity in the Atlantic basin just yet. However, a tropical rainstorm in the Pacific basin continues to show signs of further organization and may be on its way to a tropical depression or tropical storm in the next one to three days, AccuWeather meteorologists say.

"This tropical rainstorm we are watching could wander close enough to part of the southwestern coast of Mexico to bring locally drenching rain,"

There is a chance the current tropical rainstorm may wander far enough to the north along the west coast of Mexico to allow some moisture in the form of clouds and downpours to reach parts of Texas or New Mexico as early as this weekend.


https://www.accuweather.c(...)o-end-of-may/1777582

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Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Tue May 27 2025

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. South of the Southern Coast of Mexico (EP90):
Showers and thunderstorms continue to show signs of organization
near a broad area of low pressure located several hundred miles
south of the coast of southern Mexico, but the system still lacks a
well-defined circulation. Environmental conditions remain favorable
for further development, and a tropical depression or tropical storm
is expected to form on Wednesday as the low moves generally
west-northwestward at around 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...near 100 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...near 100 percent.

@Noaa

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Het Fujiwara-effect treedt op tussen twee cyclonische draaikolken of vortices, als deze elkaar naderen. De twee cyclonen zullen dan een baan beschrijven om een gemeenschappelijk punt. De beschrijving hieronder is toegespitst op tropische cyclonen, maar het effect is van toepassing op allerlei soorten vortices, niet alleen in gassen, maar ook in vloeistoffen.

https://nl.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fujiwara-effect

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Op zaterdag 28 juni 2025 20:43 schreef 12Beaufort het volgende:
80% boven de oost pacific.

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Op zondag 29 juni 2025 00:29 schreef Adrie072 het volgende:

[..]
Is dat goed of slecht, het laatste waarschijnlijk, vooruitzichten?

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1. North-Central Gulf:
A trough of low pressure near northern Florida is producing a few
showers and thunderstorms. Over the next day or two, this system
is forecast to move west-southwestward into the north-central
portion of the Gulf where some slow development is possible. By
this weekend, the system is likely to move inland, ending its
chances for development. Regardless of tropical cyclone formation,
locally heavy rainfall is possible for portions of Florida over the
next day or so, and for the northern Gulf coast through this
weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

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Typhoon CO-MAY
As of 12:00 UTC Jul 24, 2025:

Location: 16.1�N 119.5�E
Maximum Winds: 65 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 976 mb