![showforecast.cgi?lightningmap=yes&fcstfile=2023071006_202307082245_2_stormforecast.xml]()
quote:
A level 2 was issued across the eastern Benelux and Northwest Germany for severe wind gusts, large hail, and excessive rainfall.
DISCUSSION
France, Benelux, Germany, Switzerland...
Model guidance suggests that an elongated zone of convergent winds, related to a cold front, will stretch from the northern Netherlands to southwestern France. Substantial MLCAPE on the order of 1500-2000 J/kg will build in response to the diurnal heating of the most low-level air mass near this boundary. There, approximately 20 m/s of deep-layer shear will be present, suggesting that storms will be well-organized.
In particular, across the level 2 area, quite high storm coverage is simulated. The severe risk will be large (2-5 cm) hail with any more isolated storms, but most convection-allowing models do simulate a quick transition into a linear mode, which would elevate the wind risk. These models suggest the highest risk of wind gusts will develop in case a bow echo propagating north-northeastward along the boundary materializes. However, this does not seem to be the most likely scenario. Regardless of the scenario, scattered severe wind reports are likely, but in case of such a bow echo wind speeds may become extreme and exceed 32 m/s.
Overnight the storms should gradually diminish in intensity and move eastward across Germany and the North Sea into Denmark.
Daar istie dan.

quote:
Op zaterdag 8 juli 2023 16:23 schreef DemonRage het volgende:[..]
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Ik verwacht dat Estofex met een level 2 zal komen voor de oostelijke helft van het land, met name voor zeer zware windstoten, grote hagel en wateroverlast.
Spijker op de kop.
[ Bericht 5% gewijzigd door DemonRage op 09-07-2023 00:56:21 ]