https://www.telegraph.co.(...)aim-no-longer-valid/[b]Modelling behind Sajid Javid's claim of 200,000 daily omicron infections 'no longer valid'[/b]Modelling used to justify Sajid Javid’s claim that there were 200,000 omicron infections a day has been abandoned by health officials, who say it is "no longer valid" because of behavioural changes.
On Monday, the Health Secretary caused widespread confusion by announcing the figure without releasing the methodology behind the calculation.
The UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA) consistently warned this week that omicron infections were doubling every 1.9 days. But a methodology memo published quietly by the UKHSA on Thursday states it is now wrong to assume that the doubling rate will remain constant, and so should no longer be used.
A spokesman said the figure had given a “useful snapshot” to “emphasise the scale” at which omicron was spreading, but argued that increased mask wearing and working from home had altered the forecast. The UKHSA could not give an up-to-date estimate of infections.
It comes after a poll suggested that the public are tiring of restrictions. A YouGov survey for The Times newspaper found that a majority of people would not back pubs, restaurants or non-essential shops being shut or bans on meeting people from other households.
On Friday, new modelling by Imperial College was also criticised for failing to take into account real-world data from South Africa showing that omicron is causing fewer deaths and hospitalisations, and leading to shorter stays in hospital even for the oldest and most vulnerable.
Imperial warned that the risk of reinfection with the omicron variant is 5.4 times greater than that of the delta variant, although latest UKHSA real-world data suggests it is closer to three times.
The Imperial modelling suggests that in countries with high vaccination rates – such as Britain – an omicron wave could bring nearly 5,000 deaths a day – three times as many as the January wave. However, experts said this was unlikely.
Professor James Naismith, Director of the Rosalind Franklin Institute, said: “We can be confident that the double and especially triple vaccinated have protection against serious disease.
“As a result, the number of hospitalisations per 1000 infections of omicron will be significantly lower than the first wave. Better medicines and treatments will help too.”
The Imperial team, led by Professor Neil Ferguson, said there was little evidence to suggest that omicron was milder, in contrast to mounting real-world and laboratory data showing the opposite.
Imperial’s own data, which looked at more than 200,000 cases between November 29 and December 11 also showed that the risk of needing hospital attention from omicron was 0.15 per cent compared to 0.66 per cent compared to delta – four times less.
The Imperial model also states that a booster jab may only give 80 per cent protection against hospitalisation. However, models released last weekend by London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine state it could be anywhere between 84 per cent and 97 per cent.
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