Zullen we ooit nog terug gaan naar zoals vanouds?

Op zondag 23 augustus 2020 19:12 schreef Nia het volgende:
In Manhattan New York wordt een heel somber beeld over de nabije toekomst geschetst in dit grote artkel in de New York Post: https://nypost.com/2020/0(...)-why-james-altucher/

New York City is dead forever
By James AltucherAugust 17, 2020 | 4:16pm | Updated

Author, comedy club owner and former hedge-fund manager James Altucher self-published this essay on Thursday, Aug. 13, under the title, “NYC is dead forever. Here’s why.” He granted the New York Post permission to reprint his piece in full below.

I love NYC. When I first moved to NYC it was a dream come true. Every corner was like a theater production happening right in front of me. So much personality, so many stories.

Every subculture I loved was in NYC. I could play chess all day and night. I could go to comedy clubs. I could start any type of business. I could meet people. I had family, friends, opportunities. No matter what happened to me, NYC was a net I could fall back on and bounce back up.

NYC residents ramp up mass exodus out of Big Apple
Now it’s completely dead. “But NYC always always bounces back.” No. Not this time. “But NYC is the center of the financial universe. Opportunities will flourish here again.” Not this time.

“NYC has experienced worse.” No, it hasn’t.

A Facebook group [Into The Unknown] formed a few weeks ago that was for people who were planning a move and wanted others to talk to and ask advice from. Within two or three days it had about 10,000 members.

Every day I see more and more posts: “I’ve been in NYC forever but I guess this time I have to say goodbye.” I’ve been screenshotting them for my scrapbook.

Three of the most important reasons to move to NYC: business opportunities, culture and food. Commercial real estate and colleges are also suffering.

And, of course, friends. But if everything I say below is even 1/10 of what I think then there won’t be as many opportunities to make friends.

Business
Midtown Manhattan, the center of business in NYC, is empty. Even though people can go back to work, famous office buildings like the Time Life skyscraper are still 90% empty. Businesses realized that they don’t need their employees at the office.

In fact, they realize they are even more productive without everyone back to the office. The Time Life building can handle 8,000 workers. Now it maybe has 500 workers back.

“What do you mean?” a friend of mine said to me when I told him, “Midtown should be called ‘Ghost Town’!”

“I’m in my office right now!”

“What are you doing there?” I asked.

“Packing up,” he said and laughed, “I’m shutting it down.” He works in the entertainment business.

Another friend of mine works at a major investment bank as a managing director. Before the pandemic he was at the office every day, sometimes working from 6 a.m. to 10 p.m. Now he lives in Phoenix, Arizona. “As of June,” he told me, “I had never even been to Phoenix.” And then he moved there. He does all his meetings on Zoom.

I was talking to a book editor who has been out of the city since early March. “We’ve been all working fine. I’m not sure why we would need to go back to the office.”

One friend of mine, Derek Halpern, was convinced he’d stay. He put up a Facebook post the other day saying he might be changing his mind. Derek wrote:

In the last week: I watched a homeless person lose his mind and start attacking random pedestrians. Including spitting on, throwing stuff at, and swatting. I’ve seen several single parents with a child asking for money for food. And then, when someone gave them food, tossed the food right back at them. I watched a man yell racist slurs at every single race of people while charging / then stopping before going too far. And worse. I’ve been living in New York City for about 10 years. It has definitely gotten worse and there’s no end in sight. My favorite park is Madison Square Park. About a month ago, a 19-year-old girl was shot and killed across the street. I don’t think I have an answer, but I do think it’s clear: it’s time to move out of NYC. I’m not the only one who feels this way, either. In my building alone, the rent has plummeted almost 3% — more people are moving away than ever before. So … It’s not goodbye yet. But a lifelong New Yorker is thinking about it.

I pick his post out, but I could’ve picked one of dozens of others.

People say, “NYC has been through worse” or “NYC has always come back.”

No and no.

First, when has NYC been through worse?

Even in the 1970s, and through the ’80s, when NYC was going bankrupt, and even when it was the crime capital of the US or close to it, it was still the capital of the business world (meaning: it was the primary place young people would go to build wealth and find opportunity). It was culturally on top of its game — home to artists, theater, media, advertising, publishing. And it was probably the food capital of the US.

NYC has never been locked down for five months. Not in any pandemic, war, financial crisis, never. In the middle of the polio epidemic, when little kids (including my mother) were going paralyzed or dying (my mother ended up with a bad leg), NYC didn’t go through this.
This is not to say what should have been done or should not have been done. That part is over. Now we have to deal with what is.

In early March, many people (not me) left NYC when they felt it would provide safety from the virus and they no longer needed to go to work and all the restaurants were closed. People figured, “I’ll get out for a month or two and then come back.”

They are all still gone.

And then in June, during rioting and looting, a second wave of NYC-ers (this time me) left. I have kids. Nothing was wrong with the protests, but I was a little nervous when I saw videos of rioters after curfew trying to break into my building.

Many people left temporarily but there were also people leaving permanently. Friends of mine moved to Nashville, Miami, Austin, Denver, Salt Lake City, Austin, Dallas, etc.

Enlarge ImageReal-estate data shows the number of people fleeing New York for other cities.
Real estate data shows the number of people fleeing New York for other cities.Redfin
Now a third wave of people are leaving. But they might be too late. Prices are down 30-50% on both rentals and sales, no matter what real estate people tell you. And rentals soaring in the second- and third-tier cities.

I’m temporarily, although maybe permanently, in South Florida now. I also got my place sight unseen.

My wife, Robyn, was looking at listings around Miami, and then she saw an area we had never been to before. We found three houses we liked.

She called the real estate agent. Place #1. Just rented that morning 50% higher than the asking price. Place #2. Also rented — to New Yorkers (“They came from New York for three hours, saw the place, got it, went back to pack”). Place #3. “Available.”
“We’ll take it!” The first time we physically saw it was when we flew down and moved in.

“This is temporary, right?” I confirmed with Robyn. But … I don’t know. I’m starting to like the sun a little bit. I mean, when it’s behind the shades. And when I am in air-conditioning.

But let’s move on for a second:

Summary: Businesses are remote, and they aren’t returning to the office. And it’s a death spiral: The longer offices remain empty, the longer they will remain empty.

In 2005, a hedge fund manager was visiting my office and said, “In Manhattan, you practically trip over opportunities in the street.”

Now the streets are empty.

Culture
I co-own a comedy club, Standup NY, on West 78th and Broadway. I’m very very proud of the club and grateful to my fellow owners, Dani Zoldan and Gabe Waldman, and our manager, Jon Boreamayo. It’s a great club. It’s been around since 1986, and before that it was a theater.

One time, Henry Winkler stopped by to come on my podcast. He was the one who told me it had been a theater. He said, “I grew up two doors down from here and used to perform in here as a kid. Then I went out to LA to be the Fonz and now I’m back here, full circle, to be on your podcast. This place has history.”

Things like that happen in NYC.

Enlarge ImageThe author meets Henry Winkler at his comedy club (before coronavirus).
The author meets Henry Winkler at his comedy club (before coronavirus).James Altucher
In the past year, Jim Gaffigan, Jerry Seinfeld, Tracy Morgan and many others have been on the stage.

It’s only one step to get on the stage. Jim Gaffigan fell flat on his face while he was walking up the steps. The next day, on Seth Myers’ “Late Show,” Jim said, “I failed at the one thing you’re supposed to do — I couldn’t stand up!”

I love the club. Before the pandemic, I would perform there throughout the week, in addition to many other clubs around the city. Also, in the [months before COVID-19], clubs in Chicago, Denver, San Jose, LA, Cincinnati, all over the Netherlands and other places.

I miss it.

We had a show in May. An outdoor show. Everyone social distanced. But we were shut down by the police. I guess we were super-spreading humor during a very serious time. The club is doing something fun: They are doing shows outside in Central Park. This is a great idea.

In a time like this, businesses need to give to the community, not complain and not take. That said, we have no idea when we will open. Nobody has any idea. And the longer we close, the less chance we will ever reopen profitably.

Broadway is closed until at least the spring. Lincoln Center is closed. All the museums are closed.

Forget about the tens of thousands of jobs lost in these cultural centers. Forget even about the millions of dollars of tourist and tourist-generated revenues lost by the closing of these centers.

There are thousands of performers, producers, artists — and the entire ecosystem of art, theater, production and curation — that surrounds these cultural centers. People who have worked all of their lives for the right to be able to perform even once on Broadway whose lives and careers have been put on hold.

I get it. There was a pandemic.

But the question now is: What happens next? And, given the uncertainty (since there is no known answer), and given the fact that people, cities, economies loathe uncertainty, we simply don’t know the answer. And that’s a bad thing for New York City.

Right now, Broadway is closed “at least until early 2021” and then there are supposed to be a series of “rolling dates” by which it will reopen.

But is that true? We simply don’t know. And what does that mean? And will it have to be only 25% capacity? Broadway shows can’t survive with that! And will performers, writers, producers, investors, lenders, stagehands, landlords, etc. wait a year?

Same for the museums, Lincoln Center and the thousand other cultural reasons millions come to New York City every year.

Food
My favorite restaurant is closed for good. OK, let’s go to my second favorite. Closed for good. Third favorite, closed for good.
I thought the Paycheck Protection Program (PPP) was supposed to help. No? What about emergency relief? No. Stimulus checks? Unemployment? No and no. OK, my fourth favorite, or what about that place I always ordered delivery from? No and no.

Around late May, I took walks and saw that many places were boarded up. OK, I thought, because the protesting was leading to looting, and the restaurants were protecting themselves. They’ll be OK.

Looking closer, I’d see the signs. For Lease. For Rent. For whatever.

Before the pandemic, the average restaurant had only 16 days of cash on hand. Some had more (McDonald’s), and some had less (the local mom-and-pop Greek diner).

Yelp estimates that 60% of restaurants around the United States have closed.

My guess is more than 60% will be closed in New York City, but who knows.

Someone said to me, “Well, people will want to come in now and start their own restaurants! There is less competition.”

I don’t think you understand how restaurants work.

Restaurants want other restaurants nearby. That’s why there’s one street in Manhattan (West 46th Street between Eighth and Ninth) called “Restaurant Row.” It’s all restaurants. That’s why there’s another street called “Little India” and another one called “Koreatown.”

Restaurants happen in clusters, and then people say, “Let’s go out to eat!” And even if they don’t know where they want to eat, they go to the area where all the restaurants are. If the restaurants are no longer clustered, fewer people go out to eat. They are on the fence about where so they elect to stay home. Restaurants breed more restaurants.

And again, what happens to all the employees who work at these restaurants? They are gone. They left New York City. Where did they go? I know a lot of people who went to upstate NY, Maine, Vermont, Tennessee, Indiana, etc. — back to live with their parents or live with friends or live cheaper. They are gone and gone for good.

And what person wakes up today and says, “I can’t wait to set up a pizza place in the location where 100,000 other pizza places just closed down.” People are going to wait awhile and see. They want to make sure the virus is gone, or there’s a vaccine, or there’s a profitable business model.

Commercial real estate
If building owners and landlords lose their prime tenants — the storefronts on the bottom floor, the offices on the middle floors, the well-to-do on the top floors, etc. — then they go out of business.

And what happens when they go out of business?

Nothing, actually. And that’s the bad news.

People who would have rented or bought say, “Hmmm, everyone is saying NYC is heading back to the 1970s, so even though prices might be 50% lower than they were a year ago, I think I will wait a bit more. Better safe than sorry!”

And then with everyone waiting … prices go down. So people see prices go down and they say, “Good thing I waited. But what happens if I wait even more?” And they wait, and then prices go down more.
This is called a deflationary spiral. People wait. Prices go down. Nobody really wins. Because the landlords or owners go broke. Less money gets spent on the city. Nobody moves in, so there is no motion in the markets. And people who already own in the area, who can afford to hang on, have to wait longer for a return of restaurants, services, etc. that they were used to.

Well, will prices go down low enough everyone buys?

Answer: Maybe. Maybe not. Some people can afford to hang on but not afford to sell. So they wait. Other people will go bankrupt and there will be litigation, which creates other problems for real estate in the area. And the big borrowers and lenders may need a bailout of some sort or face mass bankruptcy. Who knows what will happen?

Colleges
There are almost 600,000 college students spread out through NYC. From Columbia to NYU to Baruch, Fordham, St. John’s, etc.

Will they require remote learning? Will kids be on campus? It turns out: a little bit of both. Some colleges are waiting a semester to decide, some are half and half, some are optional.

But we know this — there is uncertainty, and there is hybrid. I don’t know of any college fully coming back right away.

That’s OK, you might say, so in a semester or two it might be fine.

Not so fast. Let’s say just 100,000 of those 600,000 don’t return to school and decide not to rent an apartment in New York City. That’s a lot of apartments that will go empty.

That’s a lot of landlords who will not be able to pay their own bills. Many bought those student apartments as a way to make a living. So now it ripples back to the landlords, to the support staff, to the banks, to the professors, etc.

In other words, we don’t know. But it’s going to be a lot worse before it’s better.

OK, OK, but NYC always comes back …
Yes, it does. I lived three blocks from Ground Zero on 9/11. Downtown, where I lived, was destroyed, but it came roaring back within two years. Such sadness and hardship — and then, quickly, that area became the most attractive area in New York.

And in 2008 and 2009, there was much suffering during the Great Recession, and again much hardship, but things came roaring back.

But this time it’s different. You’re never supposed to say that, but this time it’s true.

If you believe this time is no different, that NYC is resilient — I really hope you’re right.

I don’t benefit from saying any of this. I love NYC. I was born there. I’ve lived there forever. I STILL live there. I love everything about NYC. I want 2019 back.

But this time it’s different.

One reason: bandwidth.

In 2008, average bandwidth speeds were 3 megabits per second. That’s not enough for a Zoom meeting with reliable video quality. Now, it’s over 20 megabits per second. That’s more than enough for high-quality video. There’s a before and after. Before: no remote work. After: everyone can remote work.

The difference: bandwidth got faster. And that’s basically it. People have left New York City and have moved completely into virtual worlds. The Time-Life building doesn’t need to fill up again. Wall Street can now stretch across every street instead of just being one building in Manhattan.

We are officially AB: After Bandwidth. And for the entire history of NYC (and the world) until now, we were BB: Before Bandwidth. Remote learning, remote meetings, remote offices, remote performance, remote everything.

That’s what is different.

Everyone has spent the past five months adapting to a new lifestyle. Nobody wants to fly across the country for a two-hour meeting when you can do it just as well on Zoom. I can go see “live comedy” on Zoom. I can take classes from the best teachers in the world for almost free online as opposed to paying $70,000 a year for a limited number of teachers who may or may not be good.

Everyone has choices now. You can live in the music capital of Nashville, you can live in the “next Silicon Valley” of Austin. You can live in your hometown in the middle of wherever. And you can be just as productive, make the same salary, have higher quality of life with a cheaper cost.

And what would make you come back?
There won’t be business opportunities for years.

Businesses move on. People move on. It will be cheaper for businesses to function remotely — and bandwidth is only getting faster.

Wait for events and conferences and even meetings and maybe even office spaces to start happening in virtual realities once everyone has spread out from Midtown Manhattan to all over the country.

The quality of restaurants will start to go up in all the second- and then third-tier cities as talent and skill flow to the places that can quickly make use of them.

Ditto for cultural events.

And then people will ask, “Wait a second — I was paying over 16% in state and city taxes and these other states and cities have little to no taxes? And I don’t have to deal with all the other headaches of NYC?”

Because there are headaches in NYC. Lots of them. It’s just we sweep them under the table because so much else has been good there.

NYC has a $9 billion deficit. A billion more than the mayor thought it was going to have. How does a city pay back its debts? The main way is aid from the state. But the state deficit just went bonkers. Another way is taxes. But if 900,000 estimated jobs are lost in NYC and tens of thousands of businesses, then that means less revenue from taxes — unless taxes are raised.

Enlarge ImageMuch of the city's revenue comes from taxes, which will see serious reductions due to people relocating as well as a reduced number of real estate and other transactions.
Much of the city’s revenue comes from taxes, which will see serious pressure due to people relocating as well as a dramatically reduced number of real estate and other transactions.New York City Comptroller
Yet another way to pay back debt is tolls from the tunnels and bridges. But fewer people are commuting to work. Well, how about the city-owned colleges? Fewer people are returning to college. Well, how about property taxes? More people defaulting on their properties.

What reason will people have to go back to NYC?

I love my life in NYC. I have friends all over. People I’ve known for decades. I could go out of my apartment and cross the street and there was my comedy club — and I can go up on stage and perform. I could go a few minutes by Uber and meet with anyone or go play ping-pong or go to a movie or go on a podcast — and people traveling through could come on my podcast.

I could go out at night to my favorite restaurants and then see my favorite performers perform. I could go to the park and play chess. I could take advantage of all this wonderful city has to offer.

No more.

As of August 14, all of New York’s 10 regions are in the fourth and theoretically final phase of a four-phase reopening process following the statewide coronavirus lockdown; New York City was the last the enter Phase Four on July 20, while every other region had been in Phase Four for weeks.

What happens in the four reopening phases?
Regions are to reopen in four phases, prioritizing industries that pose the lowest risk of infection for employees and customers. The details of each phase are not necessarily set in stone, either, as the state has already made adjustments to the original guidelines, like adding outdoor dining to phase two.

Originally, the plan was for state and regional officials to evaluate the outcomes of the reopening phases over two-week periods and decide whether the region can move onto the next one, but each phase will not necessarily last only two weeks.

Here is where the phase plans currently stand:

Phase One allowed construction, manufacturing, and wholesale supply-chain businesses to reopen, as well as many retailers for curbside pickup, in-store pickup, or drop-off. Phase-one retail categories included clothing and shoes, electronics and appliances, web and mail order, florists, jewelry, luggage, and sporting goods, among others. Malls remained closed. (Many nonessential retail businesses throughout the state were already offering curbside pickup ahead of the reopening, but not all.)

Agriculture, forestry, fishing, and hunting businesses can also resume, as can landscaping and gardening businesses, drive-in movie theaters, and low-risk recreational activities like socially distant sports such as tennis.

Phase Two allowed a greater range of businesses to reopen, including: offices, outdoor dining, places of worship (at 25 percent capacity), and storefront retailers and businesses in the professional-services, finance and insurance, administrative support, and real-estate and rental-leasing industries.

Salons and barbershops were also allowed able reopen in phase two with limited capacity, as were car dealerships. For retail, malls will remain closed.

Phase Three focuses on the hospitality industry, allowing restaurants and other food-service businesses to reopen for dine-in service at 50 percent capacity. (In New York City, however, indoor dining will not be allowed in this phase.) Diners are required to be separated by at least six feet or by a barrier when that’s not possible, and must wear masks until they sit down. Gatherings of as many as 25 people, up from 10, are also allowed under this phase.

Phase Four, the final phase, allows schools and low-risk arts, entertainment, and recreation businesses to reopen — all with social distancing required — but not indoor dining, movie theaters, or shopping malls. Gatherings of up to 50 people will also be allowed.

Phase Five? Governor Cuomo has cautioned that with the outbreaks intensifying around the country, the overall situation remained fluid — but he has not indicated that the state will add another phase. With several industries remaining closed in phase four, there may need to be another phase subsequently. Cuomo has said the state is watching what is happening in other reopened states in order to determine whether New York needs to adjust its own plan.

What is going on with New York City?
New York City began phase four on July 20, and more and more types of businesses have been been added to the reopening since them. Here’s what’s now reopened, and what still isn’t:

Bowling alleys set to return on August 17 at 50 percent capacity
Governor Cuomo has announced that bowling alleys, statewide, will be able to reopen on Monday, August 17, provided they limit capacity to 50 percent, require masks, separate bowling parties by a (closed) lane, and only serve food and drinks that are delivered to parties at their lane — in order to minimize the movement of people inside the alleys.

Museums and aquariums can return on August 24
Across the state, museums and aquariums will be able to reopen, at 25 percent capacity, with mandated face masks and timed entry, on August 24. According to NBC New York, the American Museum of Natural History has been planning to reopen on September 2, while the Metropolitan Museum of Art has been aiming to reopen on August 29.

No indoor dining or drinking yet
Though indoor dining was set to begin in phase three, Cuomo announced that the practice would be suspended until further notice, following a surge in new cases in states in which more indoor activities have been allowed.

Eating out, with alcohol, outside
Outdoor-only, socially distanced dining returned at bars and restaurants during phase two. The city allowed restaurants to expand their curbside seating space, using the roadside along the curb, converted parking spaces, streets closed as a part of the Open Streets program, and pedestrian plazas for dining. The city’s Open Restaurants initiative has been extended through Halloween.

Drinking outside without food has been re-restricted, plus a three-strike rule for violating venues
On July 16, state officials prohibited the sale of alcohol unless food is also being consumed as part of an effort to crack down on crowds of young people that have recently been assembling and drinking at outdoor venues and outside of indoor bars.

A new three-strike protocol was also announced. Any venue with three COVID protocol violations will be automatically closed, as will any venue that commits an especially serious violation, regardless of how they had up to that point. Governor Cuomo has also threatened to re-close all the city’s restaurants and bars if compliance doesn’t improve.

Zoos and botanical gardens
All four New York City zoos and the New York Botanical Garden reopened at the end of July at 33 percent capacity, as did the Brooklyn Botanical Garden in early August.

Malls remain closed
Because of fears of indoor transmission of the coronavirus, New York City’s malls are not able to reopen.

Pro-sports are back, but without fans
Major League Baseball, without fans, returned on July 23. Other leagues resuming their seasons are not playing games inside the city.

Television and movie production is back
New York City is once again open to the entertainment industry as of Phase Four, provided COVID-19 precautions are taken.

Nail salons and tattoo parlors
Nail and tanning salons and tattoo and massage parlors can open at 50 percent capacity, provided that employees wear masks and that workstations are disinfected for each new customer.

Outdoor recreation
In phase three, outdoor sports like basketball, soccer, tennis, volleyball, handball, and boccie can resume. Dog runs will also reopen.

Returning to the cubicle
Offices reopened at limited capacity in phase two. For more on what that entails, skip down to the section on office requirements.

You can take your pet to the vet
Veterinary practices have also been allowed to reopen statewide.

Spas and salons
Barber shops and hair salons reopened in phase two. Nail, tanning, and waxing salons, massage businesses and spas, and massage, tattoo, and piercing parlors will reopen in phase three.

Theaters shopping malls aren’t reopening anytime soon
It’s not clear when these businesses will be able to reopen in the city.

Public transportation
Subway service has returned to its normal schedule, but the subway system will still be shut down for overnight cleaning from 1 a.m. to 5 a.m. for the foreseeable future.

Playgrounds
The locks were removed at the start of phase two.

What is already open or once again allowed statewide?
Small gatherings came back on May 22
All New York residents can once again gather in small, socially distanced groups of ten people or fewer “for any lawful purpose or reason,” Cuomo announced on May 22. The seemingly ahead-of-schedule move came after the New York Civil Liberties Union filed a lawsuit over Cuomo allowing gatherings of ten or fewer people for religious ceremonies to mark Memorial Day, but no one else.

Parks and beaches
State parks, beaches, and lakeshores in New York (and beaches in New Jersey, Connecticut, and Delaware) have all reopened, mostly at reduced capacity, provided visitors adhere to social-distancing protocols.

New York City beaches
All New York City beaches are open for swimming as of July 1. Visitors must remain social distanced and cannot congregate or play sports.

Long Island beaches
Some beaches on Long Island have been restricted to county residents only, so would-be visitors should check for restrictions before hitting the sand.

Campgrounds
Campgrounds and RV parks have been allowed to reopen statewide.

Racetracks
Horse-racing tracks and the Watkins Glen International auto-racing track reopened, without fans, on June 1.

Gyms
On August 17, Governor Cuomo announced that gyms in New York would be able to open on August 24 at 33 percent capacity, if visitors fill out contact-tracing forms and wear masks at all times, and facilities employ HVAC ventilation systems to filter the air to help prevent transmission. Local leaders can delay the opening until September 2, and beyond if necessary. “If the locality can get the inspections done or be ready to inspect, they can open August 24,” Cuomo explained. “If the locality cannot get ready to do inspections, then they get another week. They can do it September 2.” Towns and cities can also determine whether or not they choose to allow exercise classes.

Shortly after the governor’s announcement, Mayor Bill de Blasio stated that indoor classes and indoor pools will remain closed for the time being.

Do businesses all know what phase they get to reopen in?
The state is encouraging businesses to use an online lookup tool to determine what category they fit into and whether they are currently allowed to reopen.

Reopened Offices
Employers will obviously be in contact with their employees regarding individual offices’ reopening plans and schedules, but offices will be able to reopen during phase two, provided they do so at 50 percent capacity and businesses follow a number of mandatory guidelines, including:

Proper social distancing — which means six feet between office occupants at all times and social-distancing markers denoting the proper spacing.
When six-foot spacing is not possible, workers must wear acceptable face coverings, which include “cloth (e.g., homemade sewn, quick cut, bandana), surgical masks, and face shields,” which employers must provide free of charge to all employees and train them how to use — and face coverings cannot be shared or reused unless they are properly cleaned first.
Businesses should reduce on-site workforces and interpersonal contact and congregation as much as possible by adjusting or staggering work hours.
Elevators and vehicles must be limited to one person at a time, unless the occupants are wearing face masks, and the confined space is limited to 50 percent capacity.
Shared workstations must be disinfected between users but should be limited-use to begin with.
Per the state, businesses must also “limit the sharing of objects, such as tools, laptops, notebooks, telephones, touchscreens, and writing utensils, as well as the touching of shared surfaces; or, require workers to wear gloves when in contact with shared objects or frequently touched surfaces; or, require workers to perform hand hygiene before and after contact.”
In-person gatherings must be limited, meaning that meetings and such should still be conducted virtually as much as possible. Essential in-person meetings must occur in socially distanced, well-ventilated areas.
Nonessential common areas, like workplace gyms, must remain closed.
The state is suggesting, though not mandating, other best practices for offices, including that workspaces be reconfigured to best implement social-distancing protocols; that businesses require strict clean-desk policies; that bidirectional foot traffic is limited in aisles; and that nonessential amenities and community areas be closed.
On June 6, Cuomo also announced that commercial buildings would be allowed to check the temperature of anyone entering their buildings — though the effectiveness of that practice remains open to debate.

When will schools reopen?
On July 13, Governor Andrew Cuomo laid out the criteria for reopening schools in New York State. A region must be in phase four and the area’s daily infection rate, on a 14 day average, must be below five percent.

The guidance, put together by the State Education Department, came with a raft of safety guidelines for when schools reopen, including mandatory masking, daily temperature checks, and a focus on cleaning classrooms, buses, and common areas.

The key decision, about whether schools open in-person at all this year, will not be made until the first week of August. Until then, local districts will develop plans on how to reopen. New York City Mayor Bill De Blasio announced his plan last week. It centers on a “blended learning” model that has students in the classroom two or three days of the week and learning from home on the other days.

What are the general requirements for all reopening businesses?
Cuomo has emphasized that all businesses should begin working on their reopening plans immediately. In order to reopen, they must also meet the following criteria:

Strict cleaning and sanitation standards must be met.
Social-distancing protocols must be in place, and workplace hours and shifts must be designed so as to reduce the density of people working at the business.
Mandatory face masks for all employees and customers in situations where there is frequent, unavoidable person-to-person contact.
Coronavirus cases must be traced, tracked, and reported to regional public-health officials.
Nonessential travel must be restricted for employees.
Liability processes must be in place (but it’s not clear what this will actually entail yet).
Who is going to enforce the requirements?
The details of enforcement remain unclear, but local governments will undoubtedly be responsible for making sure businesses follow the rules, and the state is encouraging residents to report violations. Face-mask mandates may yet prove controversial as they have in some other parts of the country.

When will routine health care, dental care, and other health services be available again?
Elective surgeries are once again available, but New Yorkers should of course consult their physicians and individual health-care facilities. Dental practices have been allowed to reopen statewide.

When can you go shopping inside a nonessential retail store again?
In-store half-capacity retail returns in phase two everywhere but not at indoor shopping malls.

When can you finally get that haircut you desperately need?
Hair salons and barbershops were able to reopen in phase two, so shaggy New York City residents can finally go get a haircut.

When can you attend group religious services?
As of June 7, places of worship can reopen at 25 percent capacity so long as they are in a region that has entered phase two.

What about travel between regions in different phases?
The reopening plan says that regions should not allow businesses to reopen if they prove to be a draw for large numbers of nonlocal visitors, but it’s not clear what the metrics for that will be. The plan also says that regions must coordinate reopening plans with surrounding regions, but again, it’s not clear how that will actually play out.

What requirements must each New York region meet to begin/continue reopening?
In order to reopen, regions must first meet (or continue to meet) a variety of criteria, including, most importantly, these seven health-related benchmarks regarding infection, death, and hospitalization rates, health-care-system capacity, and test-and-trace capacity.

Hospitalization and death rates

A 14-day decline in coronavirus hospitalizations and deaths from the virus on a three-day rolling average.
15 or fewer total new confirmed cases of COVID-19 or five or fewer new deaths from the coronavirus on a three-day rolling average.
Fewer than two new coronavirus patients admitting to hospitals per 100,000 residents.
As of June 22, New York reported 10 deaths, the lowest number since mid-March.
Health-care capacity, after elective surgeries resume

30 percent of both total hospital beds and ICU beds must be available.
Hospitals must have a 90-day stockpile of PPE.
Testing and contact tracing

In order to reopen, regions must have:

Capacity to conduct 30 diagnostic tests per month for every 1,000 residents, via an appropriate number of well-advertised testing sites depending on the region’s population, and testing needs to prioritize people who show symptoms or have been in contact with people with confirmed cases of COVID-19.
At least 30 contact tracers for every 100,000 residents, or more if projections warrant that.
Regions must must also continue to make sure essential workers are protected and have set up a regional control room to monitor all indicators of progress throughout the reopening phases. They will need to collect and evaluate their infection-rate data, and test-and trace programs and the reopening of public-transportation systems and schools must be coordinated with surrounding regions.

The progress of the regions in the seven health-related benchmarks is being tracked by the state on a regional monitoring dashboard.

What happens if a reopening region experiences a new outbreak and no longer meets the requirements?
It’s still not clear how state and regional officials will handle that if it happens.

What impact will the mass protests over the killing of George Floyd have?
Data from around the country nearly a month after Floyd’s killing, suggest no link between the protests and increase coronavirus cases. Public-health officials have attributed this to protesters wearing face coverings and the demonstrations taking place outdoors, where the virus is much less likely to spread.

Where can you get tested for the coronavirus?
The state has set up a website for locating nearby test sites (for both current infections and coronavirus antibodies). Free testing is available to all residents of New York City.

Is there any kind of official certification or benefit available for people who have already been infected with the coronavirus and recovered?
No — nor is there conclusive evidence, at least yet, as to how much immunity the presence of coronavirus antibodies will confer.

TDS0198	zondag 23 augustus 2020 @ 14:20
	Wat denken jullie?POLL
Viesdik	zondag 23 augustus 2020 @ 14:23
	Ik mis de optie Sommige dingen wel en sommige dingen niet
Tyr80	zondag 23 augustus 2020 @ 14:24
	Ooit? Serieus, ooit?
DeVerzamelaar	zondag 23 augustus 2020 @ 14:30
	Natuurlijk. Waarom zou je hier aan twijfelen? Corona is helemaal geen killervirus, er zijn zo veel pandemieën geweest waarna er gewoon weer normaal gedaan werd. Corona heeft de mortaliteit en de ernst daar helemaal niet voor om een samenleving blijvend te veranderen. Je hebt iets de veel NPO en media propaganda gezien in maart, dat dit het einde der tijden zou zijn.
#ANONIEM	zondag 23 augustus 2020 @ 14:36
	Over een paar maanden is het voorbij. Schrijf maar op. Je hebt helemaal geen groepsimmuniteit van 60% nodig om de ernstigste gevolgen te ontlopen. In steden als New York is het virus vrijwel dood. In zo'n drukbevolkte stad met een druk OV.
roos94	zondag 23 augustus 2020 @ 14:40
	Duhhh
Ama	zondag 23 augustus 2020 @ 14:44
	Ja
#ANONIEM	zondag 23 augustus 2020 @ 14:45
	quote: Op zondag 23 augustus 2020 14:30 schreef DeVerzamelaar het volgende: Natuurlijk. Waarom zou je hier aan twijfelen? Corona is helemaal geen killervirus, er zijn zo veel pandemieën geweest waarna er gewoon weer normaal gedaan werd. Corona heeft de mortaliteit en de ernst daar helemaal niet voor om een samenleving blijvend te veranderen. Je hebt iets de veel NPO en media propaganda gezien in maart, dat dit het einde der tijden zou zijn. Maar het laat wel zien hoe gigantisch kwetsbaar de huidige samenleving is, en hoe totaal niet zelfvoorzienend. Want dit is inderdaad bepaald geen killervirus. Maar die gaan er heus wel komen, gezien de grote hoeveelheden zoönosen. Eigenlijk is het wachten tot er een keer een heftige vogelgriep zo muteert dat het ook van mens tot mensen besmettelijk raakt. Je zag nu in maart/april al debiel paniek m.b.t. hamsteren, terwijl er gewoon volop bevoorraad wordt. Moet je voorstellen wat er gebeurt als er wel een keer een echte ramp krijgen. Kijk, ik was niet naïef in dit opzicht, maar ik was wel geschrokken tot wat voor taferelen een virus als dit al geleid heeft qua wangedrag van mensen.
ZarB	zondag 23 augustus 2020 @ 14:46
	Paniekzaaiers, volgschapen en "stel je niet aan, jan van 3 straten verderop is overleden aan corona dus hoe kun je een festival belangrijker vinden?!?!?!?!" zeikerds in 3...2...1...
DeVerzamelaar	zondag 23 augustus 2020 @ 14:51
	quote: Op zondag 23 augustus 2020 14:45 schreef Hamzoef het volgende: [..] Maar het laat wel zien hoe gigantisch kwetsbaar de huidige samenleving is, en hoe totaal niet zelfvoorzienend. Want dit is inderdaad bepaald geen killervirus. Maar die gaan er heus wel komen, gezien de grote hoeveelheden zoönosen. Eigenlijk is het wachten tot er een keer een heftige vogelgriep zo muteert dat het ook van mens tot mensen besmettelijk raakt. Je zag nu in maart/april al debiel paniek m.b.t. hamsteren, terwijl er gewoon volop bevoorraad wordt. Moet je voorstellen wat er gebeurt als er wel een keer een echte ramp krijgen. Kijk, ik was niet naïef in dit opzicht, maar ik was wel geschrokken tot wat voor taferelen een virus als dit al geleid heeft qua wangedrag van mensen. Hier heb je helemaal gelijk in, best eng.
mvdejong	zondag 23 augustus 2020 @ 14:52
	De grootste blijvende verandering zal zijn dat thuiswerken normaal wordt, en niet een "gunst" van de werkgever. Ik heb binnen de overheid zo vaak gezien dat er geen enkele reden is om niet een paar dagen per week thuis te werken (en op hoog niveau altijd gesteld werd dat dit moest kunnen), behalve dat managers : - zelf geen discipline hebben, en dus ook "weten" dat hun ondergeschikten ook niet in staat zijn een normale hoeveelheid werk te verzetten als ze thuis werken; - echte micro-managers zijn, die bij voorkeur over iemands schouder meekijken als er een mailtje verstuurd moet worden. Die zullen moeten gaan uitleggen waarom, zodra het weer mag, het absoluut noodzakelijk is dat iedereen weer de volle werktijd op kantoor zit. Gevolgen zullen ook zijn dat de Rijksoverheid (maar hetzelfde geldt natuurlijk ook voor bedrijven) werkplekken over hebben, en vastgoed zullen gaan afstoten, en dat het een blijvend effect gaat hebben op de files.
#ANONIEM	zondag 23 augustus 2020 @ 14:53
	quote: Op zondag 23 augustus 2020 14:51 schreef DeVerzamelaar het volgende: [..] Hier heb je helemaal gelijk in, best eng. Absoluut. En ergens had ik gehoopt dat onze overheid toch iets beter voorbereid geweest zou zijn, daar was ik wel naïef in. Moet je voorstellen dat dit virus net iets dodelijker geweest zou zijn, en dat het twintigers net zo hard zou raken als tachtigers. Dan zou er echt totale anarchie uitgebroken zijn denk ik.
Wirelessmouse	zondag 23 augustus 2020 @ 15:00
	quote: Op zondag 23 augustus 2020 14:53 schreef Hamzoef het volgende: [..] Absoluut. En ergens had ik gehoopt dat onze overheid toch iets beter voorbereid geweest zou zijn, daar was ik wel naïef in. Moet je voorstellen dat dit virus net iets dodelijker geweest zou zijn, en dat het twintigers net zo hard zou raken als tachtigers. Dan zou er echt totale anarchie uitgebroken zijn denk ik. Om nog maar te zwijgen over de productie van medicijnen wat grotendeels in India etc. gebeurt en waarvan tekorten dreigden.
macca728	zondag 23 augustus 2020 @ 15:02
	quote: Op zondag 23 augustus 2020 14:45 schreef Hamzoef het volgende: [..] Maar het laat wel zien hoe gigantisch kwetsbaar de huidige samenleving is, en hoe totaal niet zelfvoorzienend. Want dit is inderdaad bepaald geen killervirus. Maar die gaan er heus wel komen, gezien de grote hoeveelheden zoönosen. Eigenlijk is het wachten tot er een keer een heftige vogelgriep zo muteert dat het ook van mens tot mensen besmettelijk raakt. Je zag nu in maart/april al debiel paniek m.b.t. hamsteren, terwijl er gewoon volop bevoorraad wordt. Moet je voorstellen wat er gebeurt als er wel een keer een echte ramp krijgen. Kijk, ik was niet naïef in dit opzicht, maar ik was wel geschrokken tot wat voor taferelen een virus als dit al geleid heeft qua wangedrag van mensen. Helemaal mee eens, maar dit geldt niet alleen voor virussen. Wat als de waterleidingen worden afgesloten (door computervirus), internet geblokkeerd etc etc door buitenlandse mogendheden of terroristen.... We zijn nergens op voorbereid en steeds afhankelijker geworden. Je kan totale anarchie in 10 dagen krijgen.
Gunner	zondag 23 augustus 2020 @ 15:04
	Ik hoop het maar ik word wel pessimistischer.
#ANONIEM	zondag 23 augustus 2020 @ 15:05
	quote: Op zondag 23 augustus 2020 15:00 schreef Wirelessmouse het volgende: [..] Om nog maar te zwijgen over de productie van medicijnen wat grotendeels in India etc. gebeurt en waarvan tekorten dreigden. Ja, dat totale gebrek aan zelfvoorzienendheid zou een wake up call moeten zijn. Dan zouden we eigenlijk blij moeten zijn met deze 'milde' crisis. Dit zou een mooi resetmoment kunnen zijn, maar gaat niet gebeuren. Winstbejag, en de daarmee gepaard gaande globalisering, blijft de belangrijkste drijfveer, dus zal hier geen verandering in komen. Tja, als je als samenleving totaal niet reageert op wake up calls, verdien je eigenlijk ook niet beter.
#ANONIEM	zondag 23 augustus 2020 @ 15:05
	quote: Op zondag 23 augustus 2020 15:02 schreef macca728 het volgende: [..] Helemaal mee eens, maar dit geldt niet alleen voor virussen. Wat als de waterleidingen worden afgesloten (door computervirus), internet geblokkeerd etc etc door buitenlandse mogendheden of terroristen.... We zijn nergens op voorbereid en steeds afhankelijker geworden. Je kan totale anarchie in 10 dagen krijgen. Ja, je zou er haast zo'n prepper van worden haha.
#ANONIEM	zondag 23 augustus 2020 @ 15:09
	Nee, we gaan niet terug. Maar dat zouden we ook niet zonder corona. Alles is altijd in flux. Ook wat normaal is. Mensen die denken dat hrt ooit weer als vroeger worden, hebben een probleem met dealen met de realiteit.
Wirelessmouse	zondag 23 augustus 2020 @ 15:10
	quote: Op zondag 23 augustus 2020 15:05 schreef Hamzoef het volgende: [..] Ja, dat totale gebrek aan zelfvoorzienendheid zou een wake up call moeten zijn. Dan zouden we eigenlijk blij moeten zijn met deze 'milde' crisis. Dit zou een mooi resetmoment kunnen zijn, maar gaat niet gebeuren. Winstbejag, en de daarmee gepaard gaande globalisering, blijft de belangrijkste drijfveer, dus zal hier geen verandering in komen. Tja, als je als samenleving totaal niet reageert op wake up calls, verdien je eigenlijk ook niet beter. Ik ben benieuwd, maar ik ben bang dat het alleen om winstmaximalisatie gaat en er weinig gaat veranderen. Overheid zou echt werk moeten maken om het fabriceren van essentiële producten in Nederland/Europa plaats te laten vinden.
phpmystyle	zondag 23 augustus 2020 @ 15:11
	quote: Op zondag 23 augustus 2020 14:52 schreef mvdejong het volgende: De grootste blijvende verandering zal zijn dat thuiswerken normaal wordt, en niet een "gunst" van de werkgever. Ik heb binnen de overheid zo vaak gezien dat er geen enkele reden is om niet een paar dagen per week thuis te werken (en op hoog niveau altijd gesteld werd dat dit moest kunnen), behalve dat managers : - zelf geen discipline hebben, en dus ook "weten" dat hun ondergeschikten ook niet in staat zijn een normale hoeveelheid werk te verzetten als ze thuis werken; - echte micro-managers zijn, die bij voorkeur over iemands schouder meekijken als er een mailtje verstuurd moet worden. Die zullen moeten gaan uitleggen waarom, zodra het weer mag, het absoluut noodzakelijk is dat iedereen weer de volle werktijd op kantoor zit. Gevolgen zullen ook zijn dat de Rijksoverheid (maar hetzelfde geldt natuurlijk ook voor bedrijven) werkplekken over hebben, en vastgoed zullen gaan afstoten, en dat het een blijvend effect gaat hebben op de files. Waarom zou een werkgever moeten verantwoorden waarom iemand op locatie werkt? De werknemer wordt toch betaald door de werkgever?
mvdejong	zondag 23 augustus 2020 @ 15:15
	quote: Op zondag 23 augustus 2020 15:11 schreef phpmystyle het volgende: [..] Waarom zou een werkgever moeten verantwoorden waarom iemand op locatie werkt? De werknemer wordt toch betaald door de werkgever? Bij de overheid wordt al jaren geroepen dat thuiswerken in principe mogelijk is. Alleen heb ik regelmatig gezien dat dit geblokkeerd werd door managers, om de aangegeven redenen (of smoesjes die ingegeven waren door die redenen). Daarnaast verwacht ik dat er op termijn wetgeving gaat komen om thuiswerken als een recht van de werknemer vast te leggen, zodat een werkgever moet gaan aantonen waarom een werknemer niet thuis zo mogen werken. Dit gaat namelijk ook positieve milieu-effecten hebben, omdat het het aantal reis-kilometers terugdringt.
galantis	zondag 23 augustus 2020 @ 15:22
	Natuurlijk, waarom niet? Zolang je niet alles overhoop haalt met lockdowns en andere geforceerde regels volgt het gedrag van mensen gewoon z'n natuurlijk beloop. Wat je zelfs nu al ziet. Met name in het begin was er de aandachtsgeile media die er aardigheid in had dystopische toekomstbeelden te schetsen. Leuk geprobeerd maar mensen zijn geen robots die je in een paar maanden tijd even kan omprogrammeren.
phpmystyle	zondag 23 augustus 2020 @ 15:28
	quote: Op zondag 23 augustus 2020 15:15 schreef mvdejong het volgende: [..] Bij de overheid wordt al jaren geroepen dat thuiswerken in principe mogelijk is. Alleen heb ik regelmatig gezien dat dit geblokkeerd werd door managers, om de aangegeven redenen (of smoesjes die ingegeven waren door die redenen). Daarnaast verwacht ik dat er op termijn wetgeving gaat komen om thuiswerken als een recht van de werknemer vast te leggen, zodat een werkgever moet gaan aantonen waarom een werknemer niet thuis zo mogen werken. Dit gaat namelijk ook positieve milieu-effecten hebben, omdat het het aantal reis-kilometers terugdringt. Wat je vooral ziet is dat in vacatures nu al staat of de werkgever open staat voor al dan wel of niet thuiswerk. Wat mij betreft ook een recht van de werkgever omdat te eisen, die betaalt immers ook het loon! Als een werknemer thuis wil werken, en daar is geen ruimte voor, dan zal hij of zij elders moeten solliciteren.
ZarB	zondag 23 augustus 2020 @ 15:35
	quote: Op zondag 23 augustus 2020 15:22 schreef galantis het volgende: Natuurlijk, waarom niet? Zolang je niet alles overhoop haalt met lockdowns en andere geforceerde regels volgt het gedrag van mensen gewoon z'n natuurlijk beloop. Wat je zelfs nu al ziet. Met name in het begin was er de aandachtsgeile media die er aardigheid in had dystopische toekomstbeelden te schetsen. Leuk geprobeerd maar mensen zijn geen robots die je in een paar maanden tijd even kan omprogrammeren. Als je hier het COR forum zo doorneemt zijn er helaas nog een hoop die dat wel zien zitten, zo'n dystopie.
#ANONIEM	zondag 23 augustus 2020 @ 15:39
	quote: Op zondag 23 augustus 2020 15:10 schreef Wirelessmouse het volgende: [..] Ik ben benieuwd, maar ik ben bang dat het alleen om winstmaximalisatie gaat en er weinig gaat veranderen. Overheid zou echt werk moeten maken om het fabriceren van essentiële producten in Nederland/Europa plaats te laten vinden. De vraag is wel of daar genoeg draagvlak voor is. Want dat betekent voor veel mensen minder koopkracht. En stel je voor dat er een, hypothetisch, risico van 15% op een bepaalde catastrofe is. Ik denk dat menig Nederlander dan liever de gok neemt, als ze daardoor meer kunnen consumeren. Is wel dieptriest natuurlijk.
#ANONIEM	zondag 23 augustus 2020 @ 15:40
	quote: Op zondag 23 augustus 2020 15:15 schreef mvdejong het volgende: Alleen heb ik regelmatig gezien dat dit geblokkeerd werd door managers, om de aangegeven redenen (of smoesjes die ingegeven waren door die redenen). Is stukje baanbehoud voor zich zelf. Als er veel meer thuisgewerkt wordt, zijn er minder leidinggevenden nodig.
hooibaal	zondag 23 augustus 2020 @ 15:44
	Dat hangt er maar net vanaf of er een vaccin gevonden wordt.
Gunner	zondag 23 augustus 2020 @ 15:58
	quote: Op zondag 23 augustus 2020 15:44 schreef hooibaal het volgende: Dat hangt er maar net vanaf of er een vaccin gevonden wordt. Dit is het probleem hè. We vestigen onze hoop teveel op een vaccin
galantis	zondag 23 augustus 2020 @ 16:10
	quote: Op zondag 23 augustus 2020 15:58 schreef Gunner het volgende: [..] Dit is het probleem hè. We vestigen onze hoop teveel op een vaccin Het zijn met name de regeringen die dit teveel als dé en de enige oplossing hebben geponeerd. En omdat die het voor het zeggen hebben hoopt dan automatisch iedereen daar maar op.
Gunner	zondag 23 augustus 2020 @ 16:24
	quote: Op zondag 23 augustus 2020 16:10 schreef galantis het volgende: [..] Het zijn met name de regeringen die dit teveel als dé en de enige oplossing hebben geponeerd. En omdat die het voor het zeggen hebben hoopt dan automatisch iedereen daar maar op. Om het volk gerust te stellen ja
#ANONIEM	zondag 23 augustus 2020 @ 16:45
	quote: Op zondag 23 augustus 2020 14:30 schreef DeVerzamelaar het volgende: Natuurlijk. Waarom zou je hier aan twijfelen? Corona is helemaal geen killervirus, er zijn zo veel pandemieën geweest waarna er gewoon weer normaal gedaan werd. Corona heeft de mortaliteit en de ernst daar helemaal niet voor om een samenleving blijvend te veranderen. Je hebt iets de veel NPO en media propaganda gezien in maart, dat dit het einde der tijden zou zijn. Je begon goed. Tot je bij npo kwam. Viruswaanzin staat toch op het Malieveld?
inslagenreuring	zondag 23 augustus 2020 @ 17:16
	quote: Op zondag 23 augustus 2020 14:30 schreef DeVerzamelaar het volgende: Natuurlijk. Waarom zou je hier aan twijfelen? Corona is helemaal geen killervirus, er zijn zo veel pandemieën geweest waarna er gewoon weer normaal gedaan werd. Corona heeft de mortaliteit en de ernst daar helemaal niet voor om een samenleving blijvend te veranderen. Je hebt iets de veel NPO en media propaganda gezien in maart, dat dit het einde der tijden zou zijn. Als het geen killervirus is waarom hebben we dan zo'n spastische maatschappij vanaf maart? Of is dit de opmaat naar lockdown voor ieder verkoudheidje?
WheeledWarrior	zondag 23 augustus 2020 @ 17:24
	quote: Op zondag 23 augustus 2020 15:44 schreef hooibaal het volgende: Dat hangt er maar net vanaf of er een vaccin gevonden wordt. Nee daar hangt het niet vanaf.
#ANONIEM	zondag 23 augustus 2020 @ 17:28
	quote: Op zondag 23 augustus 2020 17:16 schreef inslagenreuring het volgende: Of is dit de opmaat naar lockdown voor ieder verkoudheidje? Zet je aluhoedje eens af, en bedenk dan wat voor baat de beleidsvoerders daarbij zouden hebben. Ik kan helemaal niets bedenken in ieder geval.
macca728	zondag 23 augustus 2020 @ 18:02
	Je kan genoeg bedenken. Geen mensen die protesteren, media al maanden alleen maar over Corona.... Droom voor elke beleidsmaker. Rutte had nu anders wellicht onder vuur gelegen omdat de toeslagenaffaire maar voort blijft duren, waar 95% van de gedupeerde mensen nog steeds op hun geld wacht.
Freecky28	zondag 23 augustus 2020 @ 18:03
	quote: Op zondag 23 augustus 2020 17:16 schreef inslagenreuring het volgende: [..] Als het geen killervirus is waarom hebben we dan zo'n spastische maatschappij vanaf maart? Of is dit de opmaat naar lockdown voor ieder verkoudheidje? Helaas is dit virus verraderlijker als de menig mens denkt..niet alles wordt ons verteld om paniek te voorkomen denk ik
inslagenreuring	zondag 23 augustus 2020 @ 18:08
	quote: Op zondag 23 augustus 2020 17:28 schreef Hamzoef het volgende: [..] Zet je aluhoedje eens af, en bedenk dan wat voor baat de beleidsvoerders daarbij zouden hebben. Ik kan helemaal niets bedenken in ieder geval. De nieuwe "corona" wet is er al eentje.
inslagenreuring	zondag 23 augustus 2020 @ 18:10
	quote: Op zondag 23 augustus 2020 18:03 schreef Freecky28 het volgende: [..] Helaas is dit virus verraderlijker als de menig mens denkt..niet alles wordt ons verteld om paniek te voorkomen denk ik Dit is natuurlijk flauwekul. De cijfers liegen er niet om, en er onderuit komen doe je toch niet.
#ANONIEM	zondag 23 augustus 2020 @ 18:12
	quote: Op zondag 23 augustus 2020 18:08 schreef inslagenreuring het volgende: [..] De nieuwe "corona" wet is er al eentje. Nogmaals: Wat voor baat hebben de beleidsbepalers bij een lockdown? Dat schaadt de economie toch alleen maar?
Daboman	zondag 23 augustus 2020 @ 18:13
	Ik denk wel dat we terug gaan naar normaal. Maar niet op korte termijn. We leren steeds beter omgaan met het virus en zijn nu op een niveau waar we veel meer IC opnames kunnen voorkomen. Tegelijkertijd is er nog nooit zoveel tijd en geld gestopt in de ontwikkeling van een vaccin en ook de hoeveelheid onderzoek die hieraan gerelateerd is, is echt ongekend. En overigens wordt er niet alleen tijd en geld gestopt in vaccin-ontwikkeling; andere medicijnen kunnen misschien ook helpen. Verder kan techniek ons misschien helpen, de coronamelder om maar eens wat te noemen. Of iets heel anders, bijvoorbeeld het onderzoek in Leipzig met het concert, waar het misschien mogelijk zal blijken om met simpele maatregelen super spreading te voorkomen. Steeds meer aanpassingen volgen, waardoor het in steeds hogere mate mogelijk wordt om weer een pre-corona leven te leiden. Maar waarschijnlijk gaat het niet zonder slag of stoot. Wellicht komen er nog uitbraken die tot zware lokale maatregelen gaan leiden. Ik zou het 2 jaar geven voordat we weer terug kunnen naar normaal. Maar vermoedelijk moet e.e.a. wel weer worden opgebouwd, misschien zijn er een flink aantal vliegmaatschappijen failliet en men wil misschien ook niet gelijk naar het buitenland. Volgens mij wordt er hier en daar ook al geraamd voor herstel in 2023. Epidemieën zijn de mensheid echt niet onbekend, dus het lijkt me sterk dat het complete gloom & doom gaat worden.
inslagenreuring	zondag 23 augustus 2020 @ 18:18
	quote: Op zondag 23 augustus 2020 18:12 schreef Hamzoef het volgende: [..] Nogmaals: Wat voor baat hebben de beleidsbepalers bij een lockdown? Dat schaadt de economie toch alleen maar? De staat heeft nu aandelen in zowat ieder bedrijf die gebruik heeft gemaakt van het vangnet, grote groepen kunnen niet samenkomen, behoefte aan technologische revolutie is ontstaan (thuiswerken, meer bandbreedte (5G) en andere infrastructuur wordt aangelegd) en fossiele brandstoffen worden naar de exit geduwd. Nog los van enige belangen in medicijnen en vaccins. De economie is toch maar een luchtkasteel en opportunistisch as fuck. Niet zo relevant.
#ANONIEM	zondag 23 augustus 2020 @ 18:22
	quote: Op zondag 23 augustus 2020 18:18 schreef inslagenreuring het volgende: De staat heeft nu aandelen in zowat ieder bedrijf die gebruik heeft gemaakt van het vangnet, Hoe kom je daar nu weer bij? ____! Dit denk je toch niet echt he, hahahahahahahaha. Wie heeft je dit op de mouw gespeld. Jenssen? Eigenlijk moet ik niet lachen als je het echt gelooft , dan moet je echt ff gesprekken voeren met reële mensen uit je omgeving. Dit klinkt niet gezond namelijk. Bedoel ik niet lullig hoor. [ Bericht 9% gewijzigd door #ANONIEM op 23-08-2020 18:23:45 ]
inslagenreuring	zondag 23 augustus 2020 @ 18:24
	quote: Op zondag 23 augustus 2020 18:22 schreef Hamzoef het volgende: [..] Hoe kom je daar nu weer bij? ____! Dit denk je toch niet echt he, hahahahahahahaha. Wie heeft je dit op de mouw gespeld. Jenssen? Eigenlijk moet ik niet lachen als je het echt gelooft , dan moet je echt ff gesprekken voeren met reële mensen uit je omgeving. Dit klinkt niet gezond namelijk. Bedoel ik niet lullig hoor. Kabinet geeft 3,4 miljard noodsteun aan KLM in ruil voor meer macht Letterlijke headline van het parool. Maar vis er even 1 ding uit en reageer niet op het geheel.
#ANONIEM	zondag 23 augustus 2020 @ 18:25
	quote: Op zondag 23 augustus 2020 18:24 schreef inslagenreuring het volgende: [..] Kabinet geeft 3,4 miljard noodsteun aan KLM in ruil voor meer macht Letterlijke headline van het parool. Maar vis er even 1 ding uit en reageer niet op het geheel. Je zei vrijwel alle bedrijven. Dat is echt regelrechte quatsch. Ik schrik er een beetje van dat je dat echt denkt.
inslagenreuring	zondag 23 augustus 2020 @ 18:27
	quote: Op zondag 23 augustus 2020 18:25 schreef Hamzoef het volgende: [..] Je zei vrijwel alle bedrijven. Dat is echt regelrechte quatsch. Ik schrik er een beetje van dat je dat echt denkt. Iedere horecazaak/sportschool/ bedrijf wat niet draaien kon heeft gebruik gemaakt van de regeling. Als er ineens een naheffing komt van de fiscus kun je de toko sluiten.
#ANONIEM	zondag 23 augustus 2020 @ 18:28
	quote: Op zondag 23 augustus 2020 18:27 schreef inslagenreuring het volgende: [..] Iedere horecazaak/sportschool/ bedrijf wat niet draaien kon heeft gebruik gemaakt van de regeling. Als er ineens een naheffing komt van de fiscus kun je de toko sluiten. Je zei dat overheid nu aandelen heeft in vrijwel alle bedrijven die gebruik gemaakt hebben van noodsteun. Er zijn letterlijk tienduizenden bedrijven die dat gedaan hebben. Noem jij eens wat bedrijven welke aandelen aan de overheid afgestaan hebben.
inslagenreuring	zondag 23 augustus 2020 @ 18:31
	quote: Op zondag 23 augustus 2020 18:28 schreef Hamzoef het volgende: [..] Je zei dat overheid nu aandelen heeft in vrijwel alle bedrijven die gebruik gemaakt hebben van noodsteun. Er zijn letterlijk tienduizenden bedrijven die dat gedaan hebben. Noem jij eens wat bedrijven welke aandelen aan de overheid afgestaan hebben. Ik bedoelde "aandelen" in figuurlijke zin uiteraard. Het effect is hetzelfde dat de staat het beleid bepaalt bij KLM op grond van staatssteun. Idem voor die tienduizenden bedrijven die gebruik hebben gemaakt van.
#ANONIEM	zondag 23 augustus 2020 @ 18:33
	quote: Op zondag 23 augustus 2020 18:31 schreef inslagenreuring het volgende: [..] Ik bedoelde "aandelen" in figuurlijke zin uiteraard. Het effect is hetzelfde dat de staat het beleid bepaalt bij KLM op grond van staatssteun. Idem voor die tienduizenden bedrijven die gebruik hebben gemaakt van. Ik weet niet of ik moet lachen of huilen om deze reactie. Mag ik vragen hoe oud je bent?
kibo	zondag 23 augustus 2020 @ 18:37
	quote: Op zondag 23 augustus 2020 18:33 schreef Hamzoef het volgende: [..] Ik weet niet of ik moet lachen of huilen om deze reactie. Mag ik vragen hoe oud je bent? Dreinende kinderen kun je het beste negeren.
#ANONIEM	zondag 23 augustus 2020 @ 18:38
	quote: Op zondag 23 augustus 2020 18:37 schreef kibo het volgende: [..] Dreinende kinderen kun je het beste negeren. Als het een jong kind is, vind ik het niet zo erg. Maar als er volwassen zijn die in dergelijke belachelijke complotten geloven is dat wel zorgwekkend natuurlijk.
inslagenreuring	zondag 23 augustus 2020 @ 18:38
	quote: Op zondag 23 augustus 2020 18:28 schreef Hamzoef het volgende: [..] Je zei dat overheid nu aandelen heeft in vrijwel alle bedrijven die gebruik gemaakt hebben van noodsteun. Er zijn letterlijk tienduizenden bedrijven die dat gedaan hebben. Noem jij eens wat bedrijven welke aandelen aan de overheid afgestaan hebben. Ik bedoelde "aandelen" in figuurlijke zin uiteraard. Het effect is hetzelfde dat de staat het beleid bepaalt bij KLM op grond van staatssteun. Idem voor die tienduizenden bedrijven die gebruik hebben gemaakt van. quote: Op zondag 23 augustus 2020 18:33 schreef Hamzoef het volgende: [..] Ik weet niet of ik moet lachen of huilen om deze reactie. Mag ik vragen hoe oud je bent? Opmerkingen als deze zal bij een bepaald publiek vast aanslaan. Bedankt ook voor de inhoudelijke discussie. Clown.
#ANONIEM	zondag 23 augustus 2020 @ 18:40
	quote: Op zondag 23 augustus 2020 18:38 schreef inslagenreuring het volgende: Idem voor die tienduizenden bedrijven die gebruik hebben gemaakt van. Regelrechte quatsch, maar ik denk eigenlijk dat je dit zelf ook wel weet. Eerst breng je het als letterlijk, en nu is het al figuurlijk. Als je nog een minuutje extra nadenkt, kom je er wel uit denk ik.
kibo	zondag 23 augustus 2020 @ 18:41
	quote: Op zondag 23 augustus 2020 18:38 schreef Hamzoef het volgende: [..] Als het een jong kind is, vind ik het niet zo erg. Maar als er volwassen zijn die in dergelijke belachelijke complotten geloven is dat wel zorgwekkend natuurlijk. Welnee. Die zullen er altijd zijn. Zie ook die tokkies bij die Binnenhof demonstratie. Meestal kale bierbuiken die denken op hun 50e nog een karatetrap tegen een agent te kunnen imiteren
inslagenreuring	zondag 23 augustus 2020 @ 18:44
	quote: Op zondag 23 augustus 2020 18:40 schreef Hamzoef het volgende: [..] Regelrechte quatsch, maar ik denk eigenlijk dat je dit zelf ook wel weet. Eerst breng je het als letterlijk, en nu is het al figuurlijk. Als je nog een minuutje extra nadenkt, kom je er wel uit denk ik. Nee ik benoem 5 belangen die beleidsmakers hebben bij de huidige "crisis". Jij blijft steken op de definitie van aandelen en doet dit, zonder het vanuit een filosofische blik te bekijken, af als complotdenken. En biedt hierbij geen enkel ander perspectief. Over quatsch gesproken.
Nia	zondag 23 augustus 2020 @ 19:12
	In Manhattan New York wordt een heel somber beeld over de nabije toekomst geschetst in dit grote artkel in de New York Post: https://nypost.com/2020/0(...)-why-james-altucher/ New York City is dead forever By James AltucherAugust 17, 2020 \| 4:16pm \| Updated Author, comedy club owner and former hedge-fund manager James Altucher self-published this essay on Thursday, Aug. 13, under the title, “NYC is dead forever. Here’s why.” He granted the New York Post permission to reprint his piece in full below. I love NYC. When I first moved to NYC it was a dream come true. Every corner was like a theater production happening right in front of me. So much personality, so many stories. Every subculture I loved was in NYC. I could play chess all day and night. I could go to comedy clubs. I could start any type of business. I could meet people. I had family, friends, opportunities. No matter what happened to me, NYC was a net I could fall back on and bounce back up. NYC residents ramp up mass exodus out of Big Apple Now it’s completely dead. “But NYC always always bounces back.” No. Not this time. “But NYC is the center of the financial universe. Opportunities will flourish here again.” Not this time. “NYC has experienced worse.” No, it hasn’t. A Facebook group [Into The Unknown] formed a few weeks ago that was for people who were planning a move and wanted others to talk to and ask advice from. Within two or three days it had about 10,000 members. Every day I see more and more posts: “I’ve been in NYC forever but I guess this time I have to say goodbye.” I’ve been screenshotting them for my scrapbook. Three of the most important reasons to move to NYC: business opportunities, culture and food. Commercial real estate and colleges are also suffering. And, of course, friends. But if everything I say below is even 1/10 of what I think then there won’t be as many opportunities to make friends. Business Midtown Manhattan, the center of business in NYC, is empty. Even though people can go back to work, famous office buildings like the Time Life skyscraper are still 90% empty. Businesses realized that they don’t need their employees at the office. In fact, they realize they are even more productive without everyone back to the office. The Time Life building can handle 8,000 workers. Now it maybe has 500 workers back. “What do you mean?” a friend of mine said to me when I told him, “Midtown should be called ‘Ghost Town’!” “I’m in my office right now!” “What are you doing there?” I asked. “Packing up,” he said and laughed, “I’m shutting it down.” He works in the entertainment business. Another friend of mine works at a major investment bank as a managing director. Before the pandemic he was at the office every day, sometimes working from 6 a.m. to 10 p.m. Now he lives in Phoenix, Arizona. “As of June,” he told me, “I had never even been to Phoenix.” And then he moved there. He does all his meetings on Zoom. I was talking to a book editor who has been out of the city since early March. “We’ve been all working fine. I’m not sure why we would need to go back to the office.” One friend of mine, Derek Halpern, was convinced he’d stay. He put up a Facebook post the other day saying he might be changing his mind. Derek wrote: In the last week: I watched a homeless person lose his mind and start attacking random pedestrians. Including spitting on, throwing stuff at, and swatting. I’ve seen several single parents with a child asking for money for food. And then, when someone gave them food, tossed the food right back at them. I watched a man yell racist slurs at every single race of people while charging / then stopping before going too far. And worse. I’ve been living in New York City for about 10 years. It has definitely gotten worse and there’s no end in sight. My favorite park is Madison Square Park. About a month ago, a 19-year-old girl was shot and killed across the street. I don’t think I have an answer, but I do think it’s clear: it’s time to move out of NYC. I’m not the only one who feels this way, either. In my building alone, the rent has plummeted almost 3% — more people are moving away than ever before. So … It’s not goodbye yet. But a lifelong New Yorker is thinking about it. I pick his post out, but I could’ve picked one of dozens of others. People say, “NYC has been through worse” or “NYC has always come back.” No and no. First, when has NYC been through worse? Even in the 1970s, and through the ’80s, when NYC was going bankrupt, and even when it was the crime capital of the US or close to it, it was still the capital of the business world (meaning: it was the primary place young people would go to build wealth and find opportunity). It was culturally on top of its game — home to artists, theater, media, advertising, publishing. And it was probably the food capital of the US. NYC has never been locked down for five months. Not in any pandemic, war, financial crisis, never. In the middle of the polio epidemic, when little kids (including my mother) were going paralyzed or dying (my mother ended up with a bad leg), NYC didn’t go through this. This is not to say what should have been done or should not have been done. That part is over. Now we have to deal with what is. In early March, many people (not me) left NYC when they felt it would provide safety from the virus and they no longer needed to go to work and all the restaurants were closed. People figured, “I’ll get out for a month or two and then come back.” They are all still gone. And then in June, during rioting and looting, a second wave of NYC-ers (this time me) left. I have kids. Nothing was wrong with the protests, but I was a little nervous when I saw videos of rioters after curfew trying to break into my building. Many people left temporarily but there were also people leaving permanently. Friends of mine moved to Nashville, Miami, Austin, Denver, Salt Lake City, Austin, Dallas, etc. Enlarge ImageReal-estate data shows the number of people fleeing New York for other cities. Real estate data shows the number of people fleeing New York for other cities.Redfin Now a third wave of people are leaving. But they might be too late. Prices are down 30-50% on both rentals and sales, no matter what real estate people tell you. And rentals soaring in the second- and third-tier cities. I’m temporarily, although maybe permanently, in South Florida now. I also got my place sight unseen. My wife, Robyn, was looking at listings around Miami, and then she saw an area we had never been to before. We found three houses we liked. She called the real estate agent. Place #1. Just rented that morning 50% higher than the asking price. Place #2. Also rented — to New Yorkers (“They came from New York for three hours, saw the place, got it, went back to pack”). Place #3. “Available.” “We’ll take it!” The first time we physically saw it was when we flew down and moved in. “This is temporary, right?” I confirmed with Robyn. But … I don’t know. I’m starting to like the sun a little bit. I mean, when it’s behind the shades. And when I am in air-conditioning. But let’s move on for a second: Summary: Businesses are remote, and they aren’t returning to the office. And it’s a death spiral: The longer offices remain empty, the longer they will remain empty. In 2005, a hedge fund manager was visiting my office and said, “In Manhattan, you practically trip over opportunities in the street.” Now the streets are empty. Culture I co-own a comedy club, Standup NY, on West 78th and Broadway. I’m very very proud of the club and grateful to my fellow owners, Dani Zoldan and Gabe Waldman, and our manager, Jon Boreamayo. It’s a great club. It’s been around since 1986, and before that it was a theater. One time, Henry Winkler stopped by to come on my podcast. He was the one who told me it had been a theater. He said, “I grew up two doors down from here and used to perform in here as a kid. Then I went out to LA to be the Fonz and now I’m back here, full circle, to be on your podcast. This place has history.” Things like that happen in NYC. Enlarge ImageThe author meets Henry Winkler at his comedy club (before coronavirus). The author meets Henry Winkler at his comedy club (before coronavirus).James Altucher In the past year, Jim Gaffigan, Jerry Seinfeld, Tracy Morgan and many others have been on the stage. It’s only one step to get on the stage. Jim Gaffigan fell flat on his face while he was walking up the steps. The next day, on Seth Myers’ “Late Show,” Jim said, “I failed at the one thing you’re supposed to do — I couldn’t stand up!” I love the club. Before the pandemic, I would perform there throughout the week, in addition to many other clubs around the city. Also, in the [months before COVID-19], clubs in Chicago, Denver, San Jose, LA, Cincinnati, all over the Netherlands and other places. I miss it. We had a show in May. An outdoor show. Everyone social distanced. But we were shut down by the police. I guess we were super-spreading humor during a very serious time. The club is doing something fun: They are doing shows outside in Central Park. This is a great idea. In a time like this, businesses need to give to the community, not complain and not take. That said, we have no idea when we will open. Nobody has any idea. And the longer we close, the less chance we will ever reopen profitably. Broadway is closed until at least the spring. Lincoln Center is closed. All the museums are closed. Forget about the tens of thousands of jobs lost in these cultural centers. Forget even about the millions of dollars of tourist and tourist-generated revenues lost by the closing of these centers. There are thousands of performers, producers, artists — and the entire ecosystem of art, theater, production and curation — that surrounds these cultural centers. People who have worked all of their lives for the right to be able to perform even once on Broadway whose lives and careers have been put on hold. I get it. There was a pandemic. But the question now is: What happens next? And, given the uncertainty (since there is no known answer), and given the fact that people, cities, economies loathe uncertainty, we simply don’t know the answer. And that’s a bad thing for New York City. Right now, Broadway is closed “at least until early 2021” and then there are supposed to be a series of “rolling dates” by which it will reopen. But is that true? We simply don’t know. And what does that mean? And will it have to be only 25% capacity? Broadway shows can’t survive with that! And will performers, writers, producers, investors, lenders, stagehands, landlords, etc. wait a year? Same for the museums, Lincoln Center and the thousand other cultural reasons millions come to New York City every year. Food My favorite restaurant is closed for good. OK, let’s go to my second favorite. Closed for good. Third favorite, closed for good. I thought the Paycheck Protection Program (PPP) was supposed to help. No? What about emergency relief? No. Stimulus checks? Unemployment? No and no. OK, my fourth favorite, or what about that place I always ordered delivery from? No and no. Around late May, I took walks and saw that many places were boarded up. OK, I thought, because the protesting was leading to looting, and the restaurants were protecting themselves. They’ll be OK. Looking closer, I’d see the signs. For Lease. For Rent. For whatever. Before the pandemic, the average restaurant had only 16 days of cash on hand. Some had more (McDonald’s), and some had less (the local mom-and-pop Greek diner). Yelp estimates that 60% of restaurants around the United States have closed. My guess is more than 60% will be closed in New York City, but who knows. Someone said to me, “Well, people will want to come in now and start their own restaurants! There is less competition.” I don’t think you understand how restaurants work. Restaurants want other restaurants nearby. That’s why there’s one street in Manhattan (West 46th Street between Eighth and Ninth) called “Restaurant Row.” It’s all restaurants. That’s why there’s another street called “Little India” and another one called “Koreatown.” Restaurants happen in clusters, and then people say, “Let’s go out to eat!” And even if they don’t know where they want to eat, they go to the area where all the restaurants are. If the restaurants are no longer clustered, fewer people go out to eat. They are on the fence about where so they elect to stay home. Restaurants breed more restaurants. And again, what happens to all the employees who work at these restaurants? They are gone. They left New York City. Where did they go? I know a lot of people who went to upstate NY, Maine, Vermont, Tennessee, Indiana, etc. — back to live with their parents or live with friends or live cheaper. They are gone and gone for good. And what person wakes up today and says, “I can’t wait to set up a pizza place in the location where 100,000 other pizza places just closed down.” People are going to wait awhile and see. They want to make sure the virus is gone, or there’s a vaccine, or there’s a profitable business model. Commercial real estate If building owners and landlords lose their prime tenants — the storefronts on the bottom floor, the offices on the middle floors, the well-to-do on the top floors, etc. — then they go out of business. And what happens when they go out of business? Nothing, actually. And that’s the bad news. People who would have rented or bought say, “Hmmm, everyone is saying NYC is heading back to the 1970s, so even though prices might be 50% lower than they were a year ago, I think I will wait a bit more. Better safe than sorry!” And then with everyone waiting … prices go down. So people see prices go down and they say, “Good thing I waited. But what happens if I wait even more?” And they wait, and then prices go down more. This is called a deflationary spiral. People wait. Prices go down. Nobody really wins. Because the landlords or owners go broke. Less money gets spent on the city. Nobody moves in, so there is no motion in the markets. And people who already own in the area, who can afford to hang on, have to wait longer for a return of restaurants, services, etc. that they were used to. Well, will prices go down low enough everyone buys? Answer: Maybe. Maybe not. Some people can afford to hang on but not afford to sell. So they wait. Other people will go bankrupt and there will be litigation, which creates other problems for real estate in the area. And the big borrowers and lenders may need a bailout of some sort or face mass bankruptcy. Who knows what will happen? Colleges There are almost 600,000 college students spread out through NYC. From Columbia to NYU to Baruch, Fordham, St. John’s, etc. Will they require remote learning? Will kids be on campus? It turns out: a little bit of both. Some colleges are waiting a semester to decide, some are half and half, some are optional. But we know this — there is uncertainty, and there is hybrid. I don’t know of any college fully coming back right away. That’s OK, you might say, so in a semester or two it might be fine. Not so fast. Let’s say just 100,000 of those 600,000 don’t return to school and decide not to rent an apartment in New York City. That’s a lot of apartments that will go empty. That’s a lot of landlords who will not be able to pay their own bills. Many bought those student apartments as a way to make a living. So now it ripples back to the landlords, to the support staff, to the banks, to the professors, etc. In other words, we don’t know. But it’s going to be a lot worse before it’s better. OK, OK, but NYC always comes back … Yes, it does. I lived three blocks from Ground Zero on 9/11. Downtown, where I lived, was destroyed, but it came roaring back within two years. Such sadness and hardship — and then, quickly, that area became the most attractive area in New York. And in 2008 and 2009, there was much suffering during the Great Recession, and again much hardship, but things came roaring back. But this time it’s different. You’re never supposed to say that, but this time it’s true. If you believe this time is no different, that NYC is resilient — I really hope you’re right. I don’t benefit from saying any of this. I love NYC. I was born there. I’ve lived there forever. I STILL live there. I love everything about NYC. I want 2019 back. But this time it’s different. One reason: bandwidth. In 2008, average bandwidth speeds were 3 megabits per second. That’s not enough for a Zoom meeting with reliable video quality. Now, it’s over 20 megabits per second. That’s more than enough for high-quality video. There’s a before and after. Before: no remote work. After: everyone can remote work. The difference: bandwidth got faster. And that’s basically it. People have left New York City and have moved completely into virtual worlds. The Time-Life building doesn’t need to fill up again. Wall Street can now stretch across every street instead of just being one building in Manhattan. We are officially AB: After Bandwidth. And for the entire history of NYC (and the world) until now, we were BB: Before Bandwidth. Remote learning, remote meetings, remote offices, remote performance, remote everything. That’s what is different. Everyone has spent the past five months adapting to a new lifestyle. Nobody wants to fly across the country for a two-hour meeting when you can do it just as well on Zoom. I can go see “live comedy” on Zoom. I can take classes from the best teachers in the world for almost free online as opposed to paying $70,000 a year for a limited number of teachers who may or may not be good. Everyone has choices now. You can live in the music capital of Nashville, you can live in the “next Silicon Valley” of Austin. You can live in your hometown in the middle of wherever. And you can be just as productive, make the same salary, have higher quality of life with a cheaper cost. And what would make you come back? There won’t be business opportunities for years. Businesses move on. People move on. It will be cheaper for businesses to function remotely — and bandwidth is only getting faster. Wait for events and conferences and even meetings and maybe even office spaces to start happening in virtual realities once everyone has spread out from Midtown Manhattan to all over the country. The quality of restaurants will start to go up in all the second- and then third-tier cities as talent and skill flow to the places that can quickly make use of them. Ditto for cultural events. And then people will ask, “Wait a second — I was paying over 16% in state and city taxes and these other states and cities have little to no taxes? And I don’t have to deal with all the other headaches of NYC?” Because there are headaches in NYC. Lots of them. It’s just we sweep them under the table because so much else has been good there. NYC has a $9 billion deficit. A billion more than the mayor thought it was going to have. How does a city pay back its debts? The main way is aid from the state. But the state deficit just went bonkers. Another way is taxes. But if 900,000 estimated jobs are lost in NYC and tens of thousands of businesses, then that means less revenue from taxes — unless taxes are raised. Enlarge ImageMuch of the city's revenue comes from taxes, which will see serious reductions due to people relocating as well as a reduced number of real estate and other transactions. Much of the city’s revenue comes from taxes, which will see serious pressure due to people relocating as well as a dramatically reduced number of real estate and other transactions.New York City Comptroller Yet another way to pay back debt is tolls from the tunnels and bridges. But fewer people are commuting to work. Well, how about the city-owned colleges? Fewer people are returning to college. Well, how about property taxes? More people defaulting on their properties. What reason will people have to go back to NYC? I love my life in NYC. I have friends all over. People I’ve known for decades. I could go out of my apartment and cross the street and there was my comedy club — and I can go up on stage and perform. I could go a few minutes by Uber and meet with anyone or go play ping-pong or go to a movie or go on a podcast — and people traveling through could come on my podcast. I could go out at night to my favorite restaurants and then see my favorite performers perform. I could go to the park and play chess. I could take advantage of all this wonderful city has to offer. No more.
marcb1974	zondag 23 augustus 2020 @ 19:16
	Ja, we gaan weer terug naar 'normaal', al is normaal wel een zich veranderend iets. Maar dingen als 1,5 meter, handen schudden etc zullen allemaal weer worden gecorrigeerd.
eragon2890	maandag 24 augustus 2020 @ 00:29
	quote: Op zondag 23 augustus 2020 19:12 schreef Nia het volgende: In Manhattan New York wordt een heel somber beeld over de nabije toekomst geschetst in dit grote artkel in de New York Post: https://nypost.com/2020/0(...)-why-james-altucher/ New York City is dead forever By James AltucherAugust 17, 2020 \| 4:16pm \| Updated Author, comedy club owner and former hedge-fund manager James Altucher self-published this essay on Thursday, Aug. 13, under the title, “NYC is dead forever. Here’s why.” He granted the New York Post permission to reprint his piece in full below. I love NYC. When I first moved to NYC it was a dream come true. Every corner was like a theater production happening right in front of me. So much personality, so many stories. Every subculture I loved was in NYC. I could play chess all day and night. I could go to comedy clubs. I could start any type of business. I could meet people. I had family, friends, opportunities. No matter what happened to me, NYC was a net I could fall back on and bounce back up. NYC residents ramp up mass exodus out of Big Apple Now it’s completely dead. “But NYC always always bounces back.” No. Not this time. “But NYC is the center of the financial universe. Opportunities will flourish here again.” Not this time. “NYC has experienced worse.” No, it hasn’t. A Facebook group [Into The Unknown] formed a few weeks ago that was for people who were planning a move and wanted others to talk to and ask advice from. Within two or three days it had about 10,000 members. Every day I see more and more posts: “I’ve been in NYC forever but I guess this time I have to say goodbye.” I’ve been screenshotting them for my scrapbook. Three of the most important reasons to move to NYC: business opportunities, culture and food. Commercial real estate and colleges are also suffering. And, of course, friends. But if everything I say below is even 1/10 of what I think then there won’t be as many opportunities to make friends. Business Midtown Manhattan, the center of business in NYC, is empty. Even though people can go back to work, famous office buildings like the Time Life skyscraper are still 90% empty. Businesses realized that they don’t need their employees at the office. In fact, they realize they are even more productive without everyone back to the office. The Time Life building can handle 8,000 workers. Now it maybe has 500 workers back. “What do you mean?” a friend of mine said to me when I told him, “Midtown should be called ‘Ghost Town’!” “I’m in my office right now!” “What are you doing there?” I asked. “Packing up,” he said and laughed, “I’m shutting it down.” He works in the entertainment business. Another friend of mine works at a major investment bank as a managing director. Before the pandemic he was at the office every day, sometimes working from 6 a.m. to 10 p.m. Now he lives in Phoenix, Arizona. “As of June,” he told me, “I had never even been to Phoenix.” And then he moved there. He does all his meetings on Zoom. I was talking to a book editor who has been out of the city since early March. “We’ve been all working fine. I’m not sure why we would need to go back to the office.” One friend of mine, Derek Halpern, was convinced he’d stay. He put up a Facebook post the other day saying he might be changing his mind. Derek wrote: In the last week: I watched a homeless person lose his mind and start attacking random pedestrians. Including spitting on, throwing stuff at, and swatting. I’ve seen several single parents with a child asking for money for food. And then, when someone gave them food, tossed the food right back at them. I watched a man yell racist slurs at every single race of people while charging / then stopping before going too far. And worse. I’ve been living in New York City for about 10 years. It has definitely gotten worse and there’s no end in sight. My favorite park is Madison Square Park. About a month ago, a 19-year-old girl was shot and killed across the street. I don’t think I have an answer, but I do think it’s clear: it’s time to move out of NYC. I’m not the only one who feels this way, either. In my building alone, the rent has plummeted almost 3% — more people are moving away than ever before. So … It’s not goodbye yet. But a lifelong New Yorker is thinking about it. I pick his post out, but I could’ve picked one of dozens of others. People say, “NYC has been through worse” or “NYC has always come back.” No and no. First, when has NYC been through worse? Even in the 1970s, and through the ’80s, when NYC was going bankrupt, and even when it was the crime capital of the US or close to it, it was still the capital of the business world (meaning: it was the primary place young people would go to build wealth and find opportunity). It was culturally on top of its game — home to artists, theater, media, advertising, publishing. And it was probably the food capital of the US. NYC has never been locked down for five months. Not in any pandemic, war, financial crisis, never. In the middle of the polio epidemic, when little kids (including my mother) were going paralyzed or dying (my mother ended up with a bad leg), NYC didn’t go through this. This is not to say what should have been done or should not have been done. That part is over. Now we have to deal with what is. In early March, many people (not me) left NYC when they felt it would provide safety from the virus and they no longer needed to go to work and all the restaurants were closed. People figured, “I’ll get out for a month or two and then come back.” They are all still gone. And then in June, during rioting and looting, a second wave of NYC-ers (this time me) left. I have kids. Nothing was wrong with the protests, but I was a little nervous when I saw videos of rioters after curfew trying to break into my building. Many people left temporarily but there were also people leaving permanently. Friends of mine moved to Nashville, Miami, Austin, Denver, Salt Lake City, Austin, Dallas, etc. Enlarge ImageReal-estate data shows the number of people fleeing New York for other cities. Real estate data shows the number of people fleeing New York for other cities.Redfin Now a third wave of people are leaving. But they might be too late. Prices are down 30-50% on both rentals and sales, no matter what real estate people tell you. And rentals soaring in the second- and third-tier cities. I’m temporarily, although maybe permanently, in South Florida now. I also got my place sight unseen. My wife, Robyn, was looking at listings around Miami, and then she saw an area we had never been to before. We found three houses we liked. She called the real estate agent. Place #1. Just rented that morning 50% higher than the asking price. Place #2. Also rented — to New Yorkers (“They came from New York for three hours, saw the place, got it, went back to pack”). Place #3. “Available.” “We’ll take it!” The first time we physically saw it was when we flew down and moved in. “This is temporary, right?” I confirmed with Robyn. But … I don’t know. I’m starting to like the sun a little bit. I mean, when it’s behind the shades. And when I am in air-conditioning. But let’s move on for a second: Summary: Businesses are remote, and they aren’t returning to the office. And it’s a death spiral: The longer offices remain empty, the longer they will remain empty. In 2005, a hedge fund manager was visiting my office and said, “In Manhattan, you practically trip over opportunities in the street.” Now the streets are empty. Culture I co-own a comedy club, Standup NY, on West 78th and Broadway. I’m very very proud of the club and grateful to my fellow owners, Dani Zoldan and Gabe Waldman, and our manager, Jon Boreamayo. It’s a great club. It’s been around since 1986, and before that it was a theater. One time, Henry Winkler stopped by to come on my podcast. He was the one who told me it had been a theater. He said, “I grew up two doors down from here and used to perform in here as a kid. Then I went out to LA to be the Fonz and now I’m back here, full circle, to be on your podcast. This place has history.” Things like that happen in NYC. Enlarge ImageThe author meets Henry Winkler at his comedy club (before coronavirus). The author meets Henry Winkler at his comedy club (before coronavirus).James Altucher In the past year, Jim Gaffigan, Jerry Seinfeld, Tracy Morgan and many others have been on the stage. It’s only one step to get on the stage. Jim Gaffigan fell flat on his face while he was walking up the steps. The next day, on Seth Myers’ “Late Show,” Jim said, “I failed at the one thing you’re supposed to do — I couldn’t stand up!” I love the club. Before the pandemic, I would perform there throughout the week, in addition to many other clubs around the city. Also, in the [months before COVID-19], clubs in Chicago, Denver, San Jose, LA, Cincinnati, all over the Netherlands and other places. I miss it. We had a show in May. An outdoor show. Everyone social distanced. But we were shut down by the police. I guess we were super-spreading humor during a very serious time. The club is doing something fun: They are doing shows outside in Central Park. This is a great idea. In a time like this, businesses need to give to the community, not complain and not take. That said, we have no idea when we will open. Nobody has any idea. And the longer we close, the less chance we will ever reopen profitably. Broadway is closed until at least the spring. Lincoln Center is closed. All the museums are closed. Forget about the tens of thousands of jobs lost in these cultural centers. Forget even about the millions of dollars of tourist and tourist-generated revenues lost by the closing of these centers. There are thousands of performers, producers, artists — and the entire ecosystem of art, theater, production and curation — that surrounds these cultural centers. People who have worked all of their lives for the right to be able to perform even once on Broadway whose lives and careers have been put on hold. I get it. There was a pandemic. But the question now is: What happens next? And, given the uncertainty (since there is no known answer), and given the fact that people, cities, economies loathe uncertainty, we simply don’t know the answer. And that’s a bad thing for New York City. Right now, Broadway is closed “at least until early 2021” and then there are supposed to be a series of “rolling dates” by which it will reopen. But is that true? We simply don’t know. And what does that mean? And will it have to be only 25% capacity? Broadway shows can’t survive with that! And will performers, writers, producers, investors, lenders, stagehands, landlords, etc. wait a year? Same for the museums, Lincoln Center and the thousand other cultural reasons millions come to New York City every year. Food My favorite restaurant is closed for good. OK, let’s go to my second favorite. Closed for good. Third favorite, closed for good. I thought the Paycheck Protection Program (PPP) was supposed to help. No? What about emergency relief? No. Stimulus checks? Unemployment? No and no. OK, my fourth favorite, or what about that place I always ordered delivery from? No and no. Around late May, I took walks and saw that many places were boarded up. OK, I thought, because the protesting was leading to looting, and the restaurants were protecting themselves. They’ll be OK. Looking closer, I’d see the signs. For Lease. For Rent. For whatever. Before the pandemic, the average restaurant had only 16 days of cash on hand. Some had more (McDonald’s), and some had less (the local mom-and-pop Greek diner). Yelp estimates that 60% of restaurants around the United States have closed. My guess is more than 60% will be closed in New York City, but who knows. Someone said to me, “Well, people will want to come in now and start their own restaurants! There is less competition.” I don’t think you understand how restaurants work. Restaurants want other restaurants nearby. That’s why there’s one street in Manhattan (West 46th Street between Eighth and Ninth) called “Restaurant Row.” It’s all restaurants. That’s why there’s another street called “Little India” and another one called “Koreatown.” Restaurants happen in clusters, and then people say, “Let’s go out to eat!” And even if they don’t know where they want to eat, they go to the area where all the restaurants are. If the restaurants are no longer clustered, fewer people go out to eat. They are on the fence about where so they elect to stay home. Restaurants breed more restaurants. And again, what happens to all the employees who work at these restaurants? They are gone. They left New York City. Where did they go? I know a lot of people who went to upstate NY, Maine, Vermont, Tennessee, Indiana, etc. — back to live with their parents or live with friends or live cheaper. They are gone and gone for good. And what person wakes up today and says, “I can’t wait to set up a pizza place in the location where 100,000 other pizza places just closed down.” People are going to wait awhile and see. They want to make sure the virus is gone, or there’s a vaccine, or there’s a profitable business model. Commercial real estate If building owners and landlords lose their prime tenants — the storefronts on the bottom floor, the offices on the middle floors, the well-to-do on the top floors, etc. — then they go out of business. And what happens when they go out of business? Nothing, actually. And that’s the bad news. People who would have rented or bought say, “Hmmm, everyone is saying NYC is heading back to the 1970s, so even though prices might be 50% lower than they were a year ago, I think I will wait a bit more. Better safe than sorry!” And then with everyone waiting … prices go down. So people see prices go down and they say, “Good thing I waited. But what happens if I wait even more?” And they wait, and then prices go down more. This is called a deflationary spiral. People wait. Prices go down. Nobody really wins. Because the landlords or owners go broke. Less money gets spent on the city. Nobody moves in, so there is no motion in the markets. And people who already own in the area, who can afford to hang on, have to wait longer for a return of restaurants, services, etc. that they were used to. Well, will prices go down low enough everyone buys? Answer: Maybe. Maybe not. Some people can afford to hang on but not afford to sell. So they wait. Other people will go bankrupt and there will be litigation, which creates other problems for real estate in the area. And the big borrowers and lenders may need a bailout of some sort or face mass bankruptcy. Who knows what will happen? Colleges There are almost 600,000 college students spread out through NYC. From Columbia to NYU to Baruch, Fordham, St. John’s, etc. Will they require remote learning? Will kids be on campus? It turns out: a little bit of both. Some colleges are waiting a semester to decide, some are half and half, some are optional. But we know this — there is uncertainty, and there is hybrid. I don’t know of any college fully coming back right away. That’s OK, you might say, so in a semester or two it might be fine. Not so fast. Let’s say just 100,000 of those 600,000 don’t return to school and decide not to rent an apartment in New York City. That’s a lot of apartments that will go empty. That’s a lot of landlords who will not be able to pay their own bills. Many bought those student apartments as a way to make a living. So now it ripples back to the landlords, to the support staff, to the banks, to the professors, etc. In other words, we don’t know. But it’s going to be a lot worse before it’s better. OK, OK, but NYC always comes back … Yes, it does. I lived three blocks from Ground Zero on 9/11. Downtown, where I lived, was destroyed, but it came roaring back within two years. Such sadness and hardship — and then, quickly, that area became the most attractive area in New York. And in 2008 and 2009, there was much suffering during the Great Recession, and again much hardship, but things came roaring back. But this time it’s different. You’re never supposed to say that, but this time it’s true. If you believe this time is no different, that NYC is resilient — I really hope you’re right. I don’t benefit from saying any of this. I love NYC. I was born there. I’ve lived there forever. I STILL live there. I love everything about NYC. I want 2019 back. But this time it’s different. One reason: bandwidth. In 2008, average bandwidth speeds were 3 megabits per second. That’s not enough for a Zoom meeting with reliable video quality. Now, it’s over 20 megabits per second. That’s more than enough for high-quality video. There’s a before and after. Before: no remote work. After: everyone can remote work. The difference: bandwidth got faster. And that’s basically it. People have left New York City and have moved completely into virtual worlds. The Time-Life building doesn’t need to fill up again. Wall Street can now stretch across every street instead of just being one building in Manhattan. We are officially AB: After Bandwidth. And for the entire history of NYC (and the world) until now, we were BB: Before Bandwidth. Remote learning, remote meetings, remote offices, remote performance, remote everything. That’s what is different. Everyone has spent the past five months adapting to a new lifestyle. Nobody wants to fly across the country for a two-hour meeting when you can do it just as well on Zoom. I can go see “live comedy” on Zoom. I can take classes from the best teachers in the world for almost free online as opposed to paying $70,000 a year for a limited number of teachers who may or may not be good. Everyone has choices now. You can live in the music capital of Nashville, you can live in the “next Silicon Valley” of Austin. You can live in your hometown in the middle of wherever. And you can be just as productive, make the same salary, have higher quality of life with a cheaper cost. And what would make you come back? There won’t be business opportunities for years. Businesses move on. People move on. It will be cheaper for businesses to function remotely — and bandwidth is only getting faster. Wait for events and conferences and even meetings and maybe even office spaces to start happening in virtual realities once everyone has spread out from Midtown Manhattan to all over the country. The quality of restaurants will start to go up in all the second- and then third-tier cities as talent and skill flow to the places that can quickly make use of them. Ditto for cultural events. And then people will ask, “Wait a second — I was paying over 16% in state and city taxes and these other states and cities have little to no taxes? And I don’t have to deal with all the other headaches of NYC?” Because there are headaches in NYC. Lots of them. It’s just we sweep them under the table because so much else has been good there. NYC has a $9 billion deficit. A billion more than the mayor thought it was going to have. How does a city pay back its debts? The main way is aid from the state. But the state deficit just went bonkers. Another way is taxes. But if 900,000 estimated jobs are lost in NYC and tens of thousands of businesses, then that means less revenue from taxes — unless taxes are raised. Enlarge ImageMuch of the city's revenue comes from taxes, which will see serious reductions due to people relocating as well as a reduced number of real estate and other transactions. Much of the city’s revenue comes from taxes, which will see serious pressure due to people relocating as well as a dramatically reduced number of real estate and other transactions.New York City Comptroller Yet another way to pay back debt is tolls from the tunnels and bridges. But fewer people are commuting to work. Well, how about the city-owned colleges? Fewer people are returning to college. Well, how about property taxes? More people defaulting on their properties. What reason will people have to go back to NYC? I love my life in NYC. I have friends all over. People I’ve known for decades. I could go out of my apartment and cross the street and there was my comedy club — and I can go up on stage and perform. I could go a few minutes by Uber and meet with anyone or go play ping-pong or go to a movie or go on a podcast — and people traveling through could come on my podcast. I could go out at night to my favorite restaurants and then see my favorite performers perform. I could go to the park and play chess. I could take advantage of all this wonderful city has to offer. No more. "Heel new york city komt nooit terug want mensen kunnen thuiswerken en hebben snel internet" 🤨🙄
capricia	maandag 24 augustus 2020 @ 00:36
	quote: Op zondag 23 augustus 2020 19:16 schreef marcb1974 het volgende: Ja, we gaan weer terug naar 'normaal', al is normaal wel een zich veranderend iets. Maar dingen als 1,5 meter, handen schudden etc zullen allemaal weer worden gecorrigeerd. Ik verbaas mijzelf er over hoe snel ik gewend ben aan afstand houden, niet handen schudden, 1,5 meter. Kennelijk zijn mensen een soort die zich snel kunnen aanpassen aan wijzigende omstandigheden.
eragon2890	maandag 24 augustus 2020 @ 01:48
	quote: Op maandag 24 augustus 2020 00:36 schreef capricia het volgende: [..] Ik verbaas mijzelf er over hoe snel ik gewend ben aan afstand houden, niet handen schudden, 1,5 meter. Kennelijk zijn mensen een soort die zich snel kunnen aanpassen aan wijzigende omstandigheden. Ik zie letterlijk nooit iemand ergens zich aan die 1.5m houden. Je bent echt een uitzondering. Zelfs de tweede kamerleden tijdens het laatste corona debat stonden vlak op elkaar 🤣 daarstraks in de bioscoop: niemand. Op station: niemand. Op straat: niemand. Allemaal gewoon zoals 2019, exact, behalve dat er in bios minder mensen in de zaal mochten maar met iets van 8 totaal naast mij merk je dat niet. Die zaten overigens allemaal per twee naast elkaar, want dat mag. Ik heb al gezegd dat ik en mn vrienden allemaal elkaar nog huggen en blijven doen, maar dat zie ik pp straat ook om haverklap. Overal groepjes mensen gezellig samen lopen en zitte praten ook. En tenslotte trok geen mens zich in de grote marktatraat iets aan van eenrichtingsverkeer. De vraag is zowieso ook niet hoe het nu gaat, maar of we ooit nog van die 1.5m afkomeb. Als ik elke expert en politicus in Nederland mag geloven is het antwoord: ja Het verandert dan net zo snel terug als de pathe en het theater weer gewoon de zaal mogen vullen en wij weer iedereen mogen huggen. Pathe etc hebben gebouwen namelijk nog en willen na 1 jaar weer graag winst draaien en wij vinden op een conventie 550 weebs die de hugs ook gemist hebben. Idem voor mensen die feestjes gemist hebben, die gaan ook los, etc. Behalvs de genen die nu naar een van die tienallen of honderden illegale parties gaan, die missen weinig nu inmers 😅😆 [ Bericht 5% gewijzigd door eragon2890 op 24-08-2020 01:54:26 ]
#ANONIEM	maandag 24 augustus 2020 @ 02:28
	quote: Op zondag 23 augustus 2020 15:28 schreef phpmystyle het volgende: [..] Wat je vooral ziet is dat in vacatures nu al staat of de werkgever open staat voor al dan wel of niet thuiswerk. Wat mij betreft ook een recht van de werkgever omdat te eisen, die betaalt immers ook het loon! Als een werknemer thuis wil werken, en daar is geen ruimte voor, dan zal hij of zij elders moeten solliciteren. Uiteraard is dat het recht van de werkgever maar als hij nog aan goede mensen wilt zien te komen kan hij maar beter zorgen dat hij die flexibiliteit aanbiedt. Werkgevers die daar nu nog moeilijk over doen prijzen zichzelf alleen maar uit de markt.
Idisrom	maandag 24 augustus 2020 @ 05:55
	quote: Op zondag 23 augustus 2020 14:36 schreef Confetti het volgende: Over een paar maanden is het voorbij. Schrijf maar op. Je hebt helemaal geen groepsimmuniteit van 60% nodig om de ernstigste gevolgen te ontlopen. In steden als New York is het virus vrijwel dood. In zo'n drukbevolkte stad met een druk OV. New York is heel interessant om te volgen. Het is nu al maanden laag qua nieuwe gevallen en het aantal doden.
Idisrom	maandag 24 augustus 2020 @ 05:57
	quote: Op zondag 23 augustus 2020 14:52 schreef mvdejong het volgende: De grootste blijvende verandering zal zijn dat thuiswerken normaal wordt, en niet een "gunst" van de werkgever. Ik heb binnen de overheid zo vaak gezien dat er geen enkele reden is om niet een paar dagen per week thuis te werken (en op hoog niveau altijd gesteld werd dat dit moest kunnen), behalve dat managers : - zelf geen discipline hebben, en dus ook "weten" dat hun ondergeschikten ook niet in staat zijn een normale hoeveelheid werk te verzetten als ze thuis werken; - echte micro-managers zijn, die bij voorkeur over iemands schouder meekijken als er een mailtje verstuurd moet worden. Die zullen moeten gaan uitleggen waarom, zodra het weer mag, het absoluut noodzakelijk is dat iedereen weer de volle werktijd op kantoor zit. Gevolgen zullen ook zijn dat de Rijksoverheid (maar hetzelfde geldt natuurlijk ook voor bedrijven) werkplekken over hebben, en vastgoed zullen gaan afstoten, en dat het een blijvend effect gaat hebben op de files. Ik las dit weekend ook, dat hoge kantoorgebouwen nu niet meer rendabel zijn om deze reden.
Freecky28	woensdag 26 augustus 2020 @ 18:47
	quote: Op zondag 23 augustus 2020 18:10 schreef inslagenreuring het volgende: [..] Dit is natuurlijk flauwekul. De cijfers liegen er niet om, en er onderuit komen doe je toch niet. Cijfers kloppen van geen kanten
Zwolsboy	donderdag 27 augustus 2020 @ 14:10
	quote: Op woensdag 26 augustus 2020 18:47 schreef Freecky28 het volgende: [..] Cijfers kloppen van geen kanten Bron?
Salina	vrijdag 28 augustus 2020 @ 09:40
	quote: Op maandag 24 augustus 2020 05:55 schreef Idisrom het volgende: [..] New York is heel interessant om te volgen. Het is nu al maanden laag qua nieuwe gevallen en het aantal doden. Vraag is wel of dat door vermeende groepsimmuniteit komt, of toch ook door andere factoren. Ik zou wel heel voorzichtig zijn met het trekken van (voorbarige) conclusies. Niet naar jou toe trouwens, maar gewoon in het algemeen een opmerking. In NY zijn een heleboel dingen nog steeds niet mogelijk. Ze hebben een strengere lockdown gehad dan veel andere steden of staten. Hier bijvoorbeeld iets meer uitleg over de fasen en de fase waar NY nu in zit (4e) sinds augustus nog maar. Everything We Do and Don’t Know About New York’s Reopening SPOILER As of August 14, all of New York’s 10 regions are in the fourth and theoretically final phase of a four-phase reopening process following the statewide coronavirus lockdown; New York City was the last the enter Phase Four on July 20, while every other region had been in Phase Four for weeks. What happens in the four reopening phases? Regions are to reopen in four phases, prioritizing industries that pose the lowest risk of infection for employees and customers. The details of each phase are not necessarily set in stone, either, as the state has already made adjustments to the original guidelines, like adding outdoor dining to phase two. Originally, the plan was for state and regional officials to evaluate the outcomes of the reopening phases over two-week periods and decide whether the region can move onto the next one, but each phase will not necessarily last only two weeks. Here is where the phase plans currently stand: Phase One allowed construction, manufacturing, and wholesale supply-chain businesses to reopen, as well as many retailers for curbside pickup, in-store pickup, or drop-off. Phase-one retail categories included clothing and shoes, electronics and appliances, web and mail order, florists, jewelry, luggage, and sporting goods, among others. Malls remained closed. (Many nonessential retail businesses throughout the state were already offering curbside pickup ahead of the reopening, but not all.) Agriculture, forestry, fishing, and hunting businesses can also resume, as can landscaping and gardening businesses, drive-in movie theaters, and low-risk recreational activities like socially distant sports such as tennis. Phase Two allowed a greater range of businesses to reopen, including: offices, outdoor dining, places of worship (at 25 percent capacity), and storefront retailers and businesses in the professional-services, finance and insurance, administrative support, and real-estate and rental-leasing industries. Salons and barbershops were also allowed able reopen in phase two with limited capacity, as were car dealerships. For retail, malls will remain closed. Phase Three focuses on the hospitality industry, allowing restaurants and other food-service businesses to reopen for dine-in service at 50 percent capacity. (In New York City, however, indoor dining will not be allowed in this phase.) Diners are required to be separated by at least six feet or by a barrier when that’s not possible, and must wear masks until they sit down. Gatherings of as many as 25 people, up from 10, are also allowed under this phase. Phase Four, the final phase, allows schools and low-risk arts, entertainment, and recreation businesses to reopen — all with social distancing required — but not indoor dining, movie theaters, or shopping malls. Gatherings of up to 50 people will also be allowed. Phase Five? Governor Cuomo has cautioned that with the outbreaks intensifying around the country, the overall situation remained fluid — but he has not indicated that the state will add another phase. With several industries remaining closed in phase four, there may need to be another phase subsequently. Cuomo has said the state is watching what is happening in other reopened states in order to determine whether New York needs to adjust its own plan. What is going on with New York City? New York City began phase four on July 20, and more and more types of businesses have been been added to the reopening since them. Here’s what’s now reopened, and what still isn’t: Bowling alleys set to return on August 17 at 50 percent capacity Governor Cuomo has announced that bowling alleys, statewide, will be able to reopen on Monday, August 17, provided they limit capacity to 50 percent, require masks, separate bowling parties by a (closed) lane, and only serve food and drinks that are delivered to parties at their lane — in order to minimize the movement of people inside the alleys. Museums and aquariums can return on August 24 Across the state, museums and aquariums will be able to reopen, at 25 percent capacity, with mandated face masks and timed entry, on August 24. According to NBC New York, the American Museum of Natural History has been planning to reopen on September 2, while the Metropolitan Museum of Art has been aiming to reopen on August 29. No indoor dining or drinking yet Though indoor dining was set to begin in phase three, Cuomo announced that the practice would be suspended until further notice, following a surge in new cases in states in which more indoor activities have been allowed. Eating out, with alcohol, outside Outdoor-only, socially distanced dining returned at bars and restaurants during phase two. The city allowed restaurants to expand their curbside seating space, using the roadside along the curb, converted parking spaces, streets closed as a part of the Open Streets program, and pedestrian plazas for dining. The city’s Open Restaurants initiative has been extended through Halloween. Drinking outside without food has been re-restricted, plus a three-strike rule for violating venues On July 16, state officials prohibited the sale of alcohol unless food is also being consumed as part of an effort to crack down on crowds of young people that have recently been assembling and drinking at outdoor venues and outside of indoor bars. A new three-strike protocol was also announced. Any venue with three COVID protocol violations will be automatically closed, as will any venue that commits an especially serious violation, regardless of how they had up to that point. Governor Cuomo has also threatened to re-close all the city’s restaurants and bars if compliance doesn’t improve. Zoos and botanical gardens All four New York City zoos and the New York Botanical Garden reopened at the end of July at 33 percent capacity, as did the Brooklyn Botanical Garden in early August. Malls remain closed Because of fears of indoor transmission of the coronavirus, New York City’s malls are not able to reopen. Pro-sports are back, but without fans Major League Baseball, without fans, returned on July 23. Other leagues resuming their seasons are not playing games inside the city. Television and movie production is back New York City is once again open to the entertainment industry as of Phase Four, provided COVID-19 precautions are taken. Nail salons and tattoo parlors Nail and tanning salons and tattoo and massage parlors can open at 50 percent capacity, provided that employees wear masks and that workstations are disinfected for each new customer. Outdoor recreation In phase three, outdoor sports like basketball, soccer, tennis, volleyball, handball, and boccie can resume. Dog runs will also reopen. Returning to the cubicle Offices reopened at limited capacity in phase two. For more on what that entails, skip down to the section on office requirements. You can take your pet to the vet Veterinary practices have also been allowed to reopen statewide. Spas and salons Barber shops and hair salons reopened in phase two. Nail, tanning, and waxing salons, massage businesses and spas, and massage, tattoo, and piercing parlors will reopen in phase three. Theaters shopping malls aren’t reopening anytime soon It’s not clear when these businesses will be able to reopen in the city. Public transportation Subway service has returned to its normal schedule, but the subway system will still be shut down for overnight cleaning from 1 a.m. to 5 a.m. for the foreseeable future. Playgrounds The locks were removed at the start of phase two. What is already open or once again allowed statewide? Small gatherings came back on May 22 All New York residents can once again gather in small, socially distanced groups of ten people or fewer “for any lawful purpose or reason,” Cuomo announced on May 22. The seemingly ahead-of-schedule move came after the New York Civil Liberties Union filed a lawsuit over Cuomo allowing gatherings of ten or fewer people for religious ceremonies to mark Memorial Day, but no one else. Parks and beaches State parks, beaches, and lakeshores in New York (and beaches in New Jersey, Connecticut, and Delaware) have all reopened, mostly at reduced capacity, provided visitors adhere to social-distancing protocols. New York City beaches All New York City beaches are open for swimming as of July 1. Visitors must remain social distanced and cannot congregate or play sports. Long Island beaches Some beaches on Long Island have been restricted to county residents only, so would-be visitors should check for restrictions before hitting the sand. Campgrounds Campgrounds and RV parks have been allowed to reopen statewide. Racetracks Horse-racing tracks and the Watkins Glen International auto-racing track reopened, without fans, on June 1. Gyms On August 17, Governor Cuomo announced that gyms in New York would be able to open on August 24 at 33 percent capacity, if visitors fill out contact-tracing forms and wear masks at all times, and facilities employ HVAC ventilation systems to filter the air to help prevent transmission. Local leaders can delay the opening until September 2, and beyond if necessary. “If the locality can get the inspections done or be ready to inspect, they can open August 24,” Cuomo explained. “If the locality cannot get ready to do inspections, then they get another week. They can do it September 2.” Towns and cities can also determine whether or not they choose to allow exercise classes. Shortly after the governor’s announcement, Mayor Bill de Blasio stated that indoor classes and indoor pools will remain closed for the time being. Do businesses all know what phase they get to reopen in? The state is encouraging businesses to use an online lookup tool to determine what category they fit into and whether they are currently allowed to reopen. Reopened Offices Employers will obviously be in contact with their employees regarding individual offices’ reopening plans and schedules, but offices will be able to reopen during phase two, provided they do so at 50 percent capacity and businesses follow a number of mandatory guidelines, including: Proper social distancing — which means six feet between office occupants at all times and social-distancing markers denoting the proper spacing. When six-foot spacing is not possible, workers must wear acceptable face coverings, which include “cloth (e.g., homemade sewn, quick cut, bandana), surgical masks, and face shields,” which employers must provide free of charge to all employees and train them how to use — and face coverings cannot be shared or reused unless they are properly cleaned first. Businesses should reduce on-site workforces and interpersonal contact and congregation as much as possible by adjusting or staggering work hours. Elevators and vehicles must be limited to one person at a time, unless the occupants are wearing face masks, and the confined space is limited to 50 percent capacity. Shared workstations must be disinfected between users but should be limited-use to begin with. Per the state, businesses must also “limit the sharing of objects, such as tools, laptops, notebooks, telephones, touchscreens, and writing utensils, as well as the touching of shared surfaces; or, require workers to wear gloves when in contact with shared objects or frequently touched surfaces; or, require workers to perform hand hygiene before and after contact.” In-person gatherings must be limited, meaning that meetings and such should still be conducted virtually as much as possible. Essential in-person meetings must occur in socially distanced, well-ventilated areas. Nonessential common areas, like workplace gyms, must remain closed. The state is suggesting, though not mandating, other best practices for offices, including that workspaces be reconfigured to best implement social-distancing protocols; that businesses require strict clean-desk policies; that bidirectional foot traffic is limited in aisles; and that nonessential amenities and community areas be closed. On June 6, Cuomo also announced that commercial buildings would be allowed to check the temperature of anyone entering their buildings — though the effectiveness of that practice remains open to debate. When will schools reopen? On July 13, Governor Andrew Cuomo laid out the criteria for reopening schools in New York State. A region must be in phase four and the area’s daily infection rate, on a 14 day average, must be below five percent. The guidance, put together by the State Education Department, came with a raft of safety guidelines for when schools reopen, including mandatory masking, daily temperature checks, and a focus on cleaning classrooms, buses, and common areas. The key decision, about whether schools open in-person at all this year, will not be made until the first week of August. Until then, local districts will develop plans on how to reopen. New York City Mayor Bill De Blasio announced his plan last week. It centers on a “blended learning” model that has students in the classroom two or three days of the week and learning from home on the other days. What are the general requirements for all reopening businesses? Cuomo has emphasized that all businesses should begin working on their reopening plans immediately. In order to reopen, they must also meet the following criteria: Strict cleaning and sanitation standards must be met. Social-distancing protocols must be in place, and workplace hours and shifts must be designed so as to reduce the density of people working at the business. Mandatory face masks for all employees and customers in situations where there is frequent, unavoidable person-to-person contact. Coronavirus cases must be traced, tracked, and reported to regional public-health officials. Nonessential travel must be restricted for employees. Liability processes must be in place (but it’s not clear what this will actually entail yet). Who is going to enforce the requirements? The details of enforcement remain unclear, but local governments will undoubtedly be responsible for making sure businesses follow the rules, and the state is encouraging residents to report violations. Face-mask mandates may yet prove controversial as they have in some other parts of the country. When will routine health care, dental care, and other health services be available again? Elective surgeries are once again available, but New Yorkers should of course consult their physicians and individual health-care facilities. Dental practices have been allowed to reopen statewide. When can you go shopping inside a nonessential retail store again? In-store half-capacity retail returns in phase two everywhere but not at indoor shopping malls. When can you finally get that haircut you desperately need? Hair salons and barbershops were able to reopen in phase two, so shaggy New York City residents can finally go get a haircut. When can you attend group religious services? As of June 7, places of worship can reopen at 25 percent capacity so long as they are in a region that has entered phase two. What about travel between regions in different phases? The reopening plan says that regions should not allow businesses to reopen if they prove to be a draw for large numbers of nonlocal visitors, but it’s not clear what the metrics for that will be. The plan also says that regions must coordinate reopening plans with surrounding regions, but again, it’s not clear how that will actually play out. What requirements must each New York region meet to begin/continue reopening? In order to reopen, regions must first meet (or continue to meet) a variety of criteria, including, most importantly, these seven health-related benchmarks regarding infection, death, and hospitalization rates, health-care-system capacity, and test-and-trace capacity. Hospitalization and death rates A 14-day decline in coronavirus hospitalizations and deaths from the virus on a three-day rolling average. 15 or fewer total new confirmed cases of COVID-19 or five or fewer new deaths from the coronavirus on a three-day rolling average. Fewer than two new coronavirus patients admitting to hospitals per 100,000 residents. As of June 22, New York reported 10 deaths, the lowest number since mid-March. Health-care capacity, after elective surgeries resume 30 percent of both total hospital beds and ICU beds must be available. Hospitals must have a 90-day stockpile of PPE. Testing and contact tracing In order to reopen, regions must have: Capacity to conduct 30 diagnostic tests per month for every 1,000 residents, via an appropriate number of well-advertised testing sites depending on the region’s population, and testing needs to prioritize people who show symptoms or have been in contact with people with confirmed cases of COVID-19. At least 30 contact tracers for every 100,000 residents, or more if projections warrant that. Regions must must also continue to make sure essential workers are protected and have set up a regional control room to monitor all indicators of progress throughout the reopening phases. They will need to collect and evaluate their infection-rate data, and test-and trace programs and the reopening of public-transportation systems and schools must be coordinated with surrounding regions. The progress of the regions in the seven health-related benchmarks is being tracked by the state on a regional monitoring dashboard. What happens if a reopening region experiences a new outbreak and no longer meets the requirements? It’s still not clear how state and regional officials will handle that if it happens. What impact will the mass protests over the killing of George Floyd have? Data from around the country nearly a month after Floyd’s killing, suggest no link between the protests and increase coronavirus cases. Public-health officials have attributed this to protesters wearing face coverings and the demonstrations taking place outdoors, where the virus is much less likely to spread. Where can you get tested for the coronavirus? The state has set up a website for locating nearby test sites (for both current infections and coronavirus antibodies). Free testing is available to all residents of New York City. Is there any kind of official certification or benefit available for people who have already been infected with the coronavirus and recovered? No — nor is there conclusive evidence, at least yet, as to how much immunity the presence of coronavirus antibodies will confer. Samenvattend: - nog geen indoor dineren in restaurants - shopping malls nog niet open - theaters nog niet open - nog geen lessen op school - nog geen binnenzwembaden open - gyms mochten onder strenge voorwaarden open per de 24e augustus - kantoren open met 50% capaciteit onder strikte hygiënevoorwaarden - dierentuinen en botanische tuinen op 33% capaciteit open per eind juli/begin augustus - musea, bowlingbanen, aquariums open per half/eind augustus, beperkte capaciteit. Toch wat strenger dan bij ons dus. Vraag is of de lagere huidige cijfers nu komen door een vermeende groepsimmuniteit, of toch ook door de strengere nog van toepassing zijnde maatregelen.