Corona peer reviewed artikelen +datavisualisatie & statistieken topic

Presentatie Jaap van Dissel 25 maart technische briefing tweede kamer

Vanuit de SC @George_of_the_Jungle

[ Bericht 19% gewijzigd door Momo op 26-03-2020 12:01:04 ]

Data initiatieven omtrent COVID-19 via overheid.nl

Datagraver

De maatregelen in alle landen per 26 maart

Could chloroquine /hydroxychloroquine be harmful in Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) treatment?

The Impact of Cross-Cultural Differences in Handwashing Patterns on the COVID-19 Outbreak Magnitude

Frequent handwashing with soap for at least 20 seconds at a time is widely advised as one of the preventive measures against COVID-19. Yet, while it is possible to quickly influence individual hygiene behaviorin the short term, in the long run, changing handwashing culture in a particular country as well as globally is a much more difficult task. Considering the relative stability of cross-cultural differencesover time, we explorewhether and to what extent handwashing culture can be used to explain and predict the relative penetration of COVID-19 pandemicinternationally. We find that even though many different factors could have influenced the rapid expansion of the virus, handwashing culture is a very good predictor of the COVID-19 spread magnitude.

Covid-19: Data analysis of the Lombardy region and the provinces of Bergamo and Brescia

The data analysis on deaths in the Lombardy Region and of both the provinces of Bergamo and Brescia shows a twofold aspect on the trend of the epidemic: - all the data show a bias linked to the event of March 10th (day for which the Lombardy region data is partial) and the subsequent change in the way in which positive cases and deaths are calculated; - following the containment measures of the Prime Minister's Decree of March 11th, the spread of the epidemic, although still exponential in nature, has a reduced multiplication coefficient. Our analysis concludes that the situation is not yet compatible with a plateau trend and allows us to predict the trend in the number of deaths in the Lombardy region. We therefore conclude that the containment measures put in place by the government on March 11th will allow a reduction in deaths from around 8000 to just over 6500 for March 27th.

A simplified model for expected development of the SARS-CoV-2 (Corona) spread in Germany and US after social distancing

Widespread opinions and discussion exist regarding the efficiency of social distancing after crucial spread of the SARS-CoV-2 virus during the actual Covid-19 pandemic. While Germany has released a federal law that prohibits any type of direct contact for more than 2 people other countries including the US released curfews.
People are now wondering whether these measures are helpful to stop or hamper the Covid-19 pandemic and to limit the spread of the new corona virus.
A quantitative statement on this question depends on many parameters that are difficult to grasp mathematically and cannot therefore be made conclusively (they include consistent adherence to the measures decided, the estimated number of unreported cases, the possible limitation by test capacities, possible mutations of the virus, etc ...). However, it turns out that a reduction in the actual daily new infection rate (actual daily growth rate of reported cases, in short: infection rate) from the current value of 30-35% in the US to 10% would be extremely effective in stopping the spread of the virus. The severe restrictions in Germany which closed any public events, schools and universities a week ago might already have contributed to a reduction of the growth rate of reported cases below 30%.

Clinical Characteristics of Fatal and Recovered Cases of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) in Wuhan, China: A Retrospective Study

The 2019 novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) has caused the outbreak of the acute respiratory disease in Wuhan, Hubei Province of China since December 2019. This study is performed to analyze the clinical characteristics of patients who succumbed to and who recovered from 2019 novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19).Clinical data were collected from two tertiary hospitals in Wuhan. A retrospective investigation was conducted to analyze the clinical characteristics of fatal cases of COVID-19 (death group) and compare them with recovered patients (recovered group). Continuous variables were analyzed using the Mann-Whitney U test. Categorical variables were analyzed by χ test or Fisher's exact tests as appropriate.

Totaal aantal meldingen per gemeente. De laatste paar dagen worden iets langer getoond.


Totaal aanntal meldingen per 100.000 inwoners. Vooral de gemeente Boekel en aanliggende worden hard getroffen.


De meeste nieuwe meldingen zijn in Amsterdam en Rotterdam de laatste dagen.


@George_of_the_Jungle

Estimating the number of infections and the impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions on COVID-19 in 11 European countries



Deze is wel interessant qua geschatte deel van de bevolking dat besmet is.

Warm weer lijkt niet de besmettingskans te reduceren

Association between ambient temperature and COVID-19 infection in 122 cities from China

The exposure-response curves suggested that the relationship between mean temperature and COVID-19 confirmed cases was approximately linear in the range of less than 3 °C and became flat above 3 °C.
•

When mean temperature (lag0-14) was below 3 °C, each 1 °C rise was associated with a 4.861% (95% CI: 3.209-6.513) increase in the daily number of COVID-19 confirmed cases.
•

There is no evidence supporting that case counts of COVID-19 could decline when the weather becomes warmer when the temperature is above 3 °C.

Cross-Country Comparison of Case Fatality Rates of COVID-19/SARS-COV-2

Objectives
Case fatality rates (CFR) and recovery rates are important readouts during epidemics and pandemics. In this article, an international analysis was performed on the ongoing coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic.
Methods
Data were retrieved from accurate databases according to the user’s guide of data sources for patient registries, CFR and recovery rates were calculated for each country. A comparison of CFR between countries with total cases ≥ 1,000 was observed for 12th and 23rd March.
Results
Italy’s CFR was the highest of all countries studied for both time points (12th March, 6.22% versus 23rd March, 9.26%). The data showed that even though Italy was the only European country reported on 12rd March, Spain and France had the highest CFR of 6.16 and 4.21%, respectively, on 23rd March, which was strikingly higher than the overall CFR of 3.61%.
Conclusion
Obtaining detailed and accurate medical history from COVID-19 patients, and analyzing CFR alongside the recovery rate, may enable the identification of the highest risk areas so that efficient medical care may be provided. This may lead to the development of point-of-care tools to help clinicians in stratifying patients based on possible requirements in the level of care, to increase the probabilities of survival from COVID-19 disease.

A Coadunation of Biological and Mathematical Perspectives on the Pandemic COVID-19: A Review

Coronaviruse disease (COVID-19) outbreak has created an emergency globally, and social distancing and isolation is the only solution to prevent its spread. Several countries have announced fully locked on to tackle this pandemic. The recent COVID-2019 has shaken the globe with incidence cases of more than half-million cases, and a mortality toll of more than twenty thousand to date. The coronavirus family is inclusive of pathogen of both – animal species and humans, encapsulating the isolated severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus (SARS-CoV). Researchers round the globe have been dexterously working to decode this lethal virus. Many mathematical frameworks have also been depicted which have helped to understand the dynamics of the COVID-19. Research on coronaviruses continues to explore various aspects of viral replication and pathogenesis to understanding the predilection of these viruses to switch between species, to develop an infection in a new host, and to identify significant reservoirs of coronaviruses will dramatically aid in our potential to prophesize when and where potential epidemics may occur. Many of the non-structural and accessory proteins encoded by the viruses remain unclear and unknown. This systematic review highlights the current situation of the pandemic, virus genomic composition, pathogenesis, symptomatology, diagnosis, and prognosis along with mathematical models of disease transmission and dynamics.

Dashboard: Covid-19 in Nederland, informatie: landelijk en regionaal.

[ Bericht 2% gewijzigd door Momo op 07-04-2020 18:18:35 ]

Waarom Europeanen misschien harder getroffen worden door het virus, nog niet peer reviewed maar wel geschikt voor hier.

ACE2 variants underlie interindividual variability and susceptibility to COVID-19 in Italian population

quote:

Op woensdag 8 april 2020 12:50 schreef Mondkapje het volgende:
Hoe kan Oudewater in de provincie Utrecht zo hoog scoren? Veel grote veeteeltbedrijven in de buurt soms?

OUDEWATER
Bij de tien Nederlandse gemeenten met de meeste coronapatiënten in het ziekenhuis per 100.000 inwoners staat Oudewater op plaats 6. Het is de enige Utrechtse gemeente in dit lijstje. Ook in gemeenten rond Oudewater, zoals Lopik, Montfoort, Woerden en IJsselstein, zijn relatief meer inwoners in het ziekenhuis opgenomen met corona.
https://www.rtvutrecht.nl(...)ekenhuisopnames.html

Kun je dit even in een ander topic posten?

Average detection rate of SARS-CoV-2 infections is estimated around six percent



Zou heel wat zijn als al ongeveer 600.000 mensen besmet waren in Nederland op 31 maart.

Zuid-Korea doet experimenten om mensen te genezen van covid-19 met bloedplasma behandeling, het lijkt goed te werken.

Use of Convalescent Plasma Therapy in Two COVID-19 Patients with Acute Respiratory Distress Syndrome in Korea

Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2 not yet has established its treatment, but convalescent plasma has been expected to increase survival rates as in the case with other emerging viral infections. We describe two cases of COVID-19 treated with convalescent plasma infusion. Both patients presented severe pneumonia with acute respiratory distress syndrome and showed a favorable outcome after the use of convalescent plasma in addition to systemic corticosteroid. To our knowledge, this is the first report of the use of convalescent plasma therapy for COVID-19 in Korea.

Een grote kans om eventueel ziek te worden van COVID-19 bij mannen die last hebben van haarverlies

Conversations on COVID: Exploring genetic links to COVID-19 severity

An assistant professor of dermatology at Brown’s medical school is investigating whether the genetic cause of hair loss could help to explain greater severity and more fatalities among male COVID-19 patients.

COVID-19 And Older Adults: What We Know.

SARS-CoV-2, a novel virus that causes COVID-19 infection, has recently emerged and caused a deadly pandemic. Studies have shown that this virus causes worse outcomes and a higher mortality rate in older adults and those with comorbidities such as hypertension, cardiovascular disease, diabetes, chronic respiratory disease, and chronic kidney disease. A significant percentage of older American adults have these diseases, putting them at a higher risk of infection. Additionally, many adults with hypertension, diabetes, and chronic kidney disease are placed on angiotensin-converting enzyme (ACE) inhibitors and angiotensin II receptor blockers (ARBs). Studies have shown that these medications upregulate the ACE-2 receptor, the very receptor which the SARS-CoV-2 virus uses to enter host cells, which puts older adults at a further increased risk of infection. In this review, we discuss the transmission, symptomatology, mortality, and possible treatments for this infection, as they relate to older adults. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Coronavirus COV-19/SARS-CoV-2 affects women less than men: clinical response to viral infection.

CoV-19/SARS-CoV-2 is a highly pathogenic virus that causes coronavirus-19 disease (COVID-19) an acute respiratory distress syndrome which provokes serious problems for global health. Studies suggest that there are many differences between men and women in the immune response to CoV-19 infection and inflammatory diseases. Women, compared to men, are less susceptible to viral infections based on a different innate immunity, steroid hormones and factors related to sex chromosomes. The presence of two X chromosomes in women emphasize the immune system even if one is inactive. The immune regulatory genes encoded by X chromosome in female gender causes lower viral load levels, and less inflammation than in man, while CD4+ T cells are higher with better immune response. In addition, women generally produce higher levels of antibodies which remain in the circulation longer. The levels of activation of the immune cells are higher in women than in men, and it is correlated with the trigger of TLR7 and the production of IFN. TLR7 is higher in women than in men and its biallelic expression leads to higher immune responses and increases the resistance to viral infections. TLR7 is expressed in innate immune cells which recognizes single strand RNA virus by promoting the production of antibodies against the virus and the generation of pro-inflammatory cytokines including IL-6 and IL-1 family members. Moreover, in women the production of inflammatory IL-6 after viral infection is lower than in males and is often correlated with a better longevity. In addition, on the X chromosome there are loci that code for the genes involved in the regulation of immune cells such as FOXP3, and transcription factor for Treg involved in virus pathogenesis. The X chromosome influences the immune system by acting on many other proteins, including TLR8, CD40L and CXCR3 which can be over-expressed in women, and influence the response to viral infections and vaccinations. However, the biallelic expression of the X-linked genes can promote harmful autoimmune and inflammatory responses. Cardiovascular diseases are more frequent in males and subjects without cardiovascular dysfunctions infected by CoV-19 have a better prognosis. ACE2 is a receptor for CoV-19 and protects lung damage. CoV-19 infection and the virus's Spike protein inhibit the expression of ACE2, abolishing its protective function. Inhibitors of the angiotensin converting enzyme (ACEI) are used to stem the devastating effects of CoV-19, to increase the number of CD3 and CD8 T cells and to reduce the viral load and IL-6 levels that control CoV-19 replication via NF-B, but these effects are still under study. It is hoped that certain drugs, such as CoV-19 receptor blockers, anti-inflammatories (against rheumatic diseases), monoclonal antibodies, anti-IL-1 and anti-IL-6, the remdesevir drug (analogue adenosine, effective against ebola), hydroxychloroquine (for the treatment of malaria) and vaccines, will open up new strategies and new therapeutic ways to combat this terrible virus.

Radiographic and Clinical Features of Children with 2019 Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) Pneumonia.

OBJECTIVE:

The purpose of this study was to investigate chest computed tomography (CT) findings in children with coronavirus disease-19 (COVID-19) pneumonia in our hospital.
METHODS:

This study included 22 pediatric patients with confirmed COVID-19 from January to March 2020. The chest CT images and clinical data were reviewed.
RESULTS:

The most prevalent presenting symptoms were fever (64%) and cough (59%), and a mildly elevated mean (SD) C-reactive protein (CRP) level of 11.22(11.06) and erythrocyte sedimentation rate of 18.8 (15.17) were detected. The major CT abnormalities observed were mixed ground-glass opacity and consolidation lesions (36%), consolidations (32%), and ground-glass opacities (14%). Peripheral distribution (45%) of lung lesions was predominant. Most of the lesions were multilobar (68%), with an average of three lung segments involved.
CONCLUSION:

Children with COVID-19 had relatively milder symptoms and less severe lung inflammation than adults. Chest CT plays an important role in the management of children with COVID-19 pneumonia.

Temporal dynamics in viral shedding and transmissibility of COVID-19

Abstract

We report temporal patterns of viral shedding in 94 patients with laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 and modeled COVID-19 infectiousness profiles from a separate sample of 77 infector–infectee transmission pairs. We observed the highest viral load in throat swabs at the time of symptom onset, and inferred that infectiousness peaked on or before symptom onset. We estimated that 44% (95% confidence interval, 25–69%) of secondary cases were infected during the index cases’ presymptomatic stage, in settings with substantial household clustering, active case finding and quarantine outside the home. Disease control measures should be adjusted to account for probable substantial presymptomatic transmission.

https://www.visualcapitalist.com/

Technische briefings van vandaag in de tweede kamer.



PowerPoint presentatie dhr. Van Dissel - RIVM - Update coronavirus

PowerPoint presentatie mevr. Van Diemen-Steenvoorde - Inspecteur-generaal Inspectie Gezondheidszorg en Jeugd - Update coronavirus

PowerPoint Presentatie dhr. De Gouw - directeur publieke gezondheid GGD en GHOR - Update coronavirus


presentatie mevr. Nieuwenhuizen - voorzitter-bestuurder Verenso - Update coronavirus

Technische briefing 8 april

PowerPoint presentatie dhr. Gommers - Nederlandse Vereniging voor Intensive Care - Update coronavirus

PowerPoint presentatie dhr. Van Dissel - RIVM - Update coronavirus

1 april

presentatie Nederlandse Vereniging voor Intensive Care update coronavirus

presentatie RIVM update coronavirus

25 maart

presentatie RIVM Update coronavirus

18 maart

presentatie RIVM over de ontwikkelingen rondom het coronavirus

Powerpoint presentatie Jaap van Dissel technische briefing 22 april

[ Bericht 28% gewijzigd door Momo op 22-04-2020 14:41:40 ]

Presenting Characteristics, Comorbidities, and Outcomes Among 5700 Patients Hospitalized With COVID-19 in the New York City Area


Abstract

Importance There is limited information describing the presenting characteristics and outcomes of US patients requiring hospitalization for coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19).

Objective To describe the clinical characteristics and outcomes of patients with COVID-19 hospitalized in a US health care system.

Design, Setting, and Participants Case series of patients with COVID-19 admitted to 12 hospitals in New York City, Long Island, and Westchester County, New York, within the Northwell Health system. The study included all sequentially hospitalized patients between March 1, 2020, and April 4, 2020, inclusive of these dates.

Exposures Confirmed severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection by positive result on polymerase chain reaction testing of a nasopharyngeal sample among patients requiring admission.

A spatio-temporal analysis for exploring the effect of temperature on COVID-19 early evolution in Spain

Highlights

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No evidence of a relationship between COVID-19 cases and temperature was found.
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Results should not be extrapolated to other temperature ranges.
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These results should be interpreted carefully due to data uncertainty and confounders.
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It is important to account for non-meteorological, spatial and temporal effects.

Features of 16,749 hospitalised UK patients with COVID-19 using the ISARIC WHO Clinical Characterisation Protocol

Abstract

Objective: To characterize the clinical features of patients with severe COVID-19 in the UK. Design: Prospective observational cohort study with rapid data gathering and near real-time analysis, using a pre-approved questionnaire adopted by the WHO. Setting: 166 UK hospitals between 6th February and 18th April 2020. Participants: 16,749 people with COVID-19. Interventions: No interventions were performed, but with consent samples were taken for research purposes. Many participants were co-enrolled in other interventional studies and clinical trials. Results: The median age was 72 years [IQR 57, 82; range 0, 104], the median duration of symptoms before admission was 4 days [IQR 1,8] and the median duration of hospital stay was 7 days [IQR 4,12]. The commonest comorbidities were chronic cardiac disease (29%), uncomplicated diabetes (19%), non-asthmatic chronic pulmonary disease (19%) and asthma (14%); 47% had no documented reported comorbidity. Increased age and comorbidities including obesity were associated with a higher probability of mortality. Distinct clusters of symptoms were found: 1. respiratory (cough, sputum, sore throat, runny nose, ear pain, wheeze, and chest pain); 2. systemic (myalgia, joint pain and fatigue); 3. enteric (abdominal pain, vomiting and diarrhoea). Overall, 49% of patients were discharged alive, 33% have died and 17% continued to receive care at date of reporting. 17% required admission to High Dependency or Intensive Care Units; of these, 31% were discharged alive, 45% died and 24% continued to receive care at the reporting date. Of those receiving mechanical ventilation, 20% were discharged alive, 53% died and 27% remained in hospital. Conclusions: We present the largest detailed description of COVID-19 in Europe, demonstrating the importance of pandemic preparedness and the need to maintain readiness to launch research studies in response to outbreaks. Trial documentation: Available at https://isaric4c.net/protocols . Ethical approval in England and Wales (13/SC/0149), and Scotland (20/SS/0028). ISRCTN (pending).

Incidence of COVID-19 and Connections with Air Pollution Exposure : Evidence from the Netherlands

Abstract
The fast spread of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 has resulted in the emergence of several hot-spots around the world. Several of these are located in areas associated with high levels of air pollution. This study investigates the relationship between exposure to particulate matter and COVID-19 incidence in 355 municipalities in the Netherlands. The results show that atmospheric particulate matter with diameter less than 2.5 is a highly significant predictor of the number of confirmed COVID-19 cases and related hospital admissions. The estimates suggest that expected COVID-19 cases increase by nearly 100 percent when pollution concentrations increase by 20 percent. The association between air pollution and case incidence is robust in the presence of data on health-related preconditions, proxies for symptom severity, and demographic control variables. The results are obtained with ground-measurements and satellite-derived measures of atmospheric particulate matter as well as COVID-19 data from alternative dates. The findings call for further investigation into the association between air pollution and SARS-CoV-2 infection risk. If particulate matter plays a significant role in COVID-19 incidence, it has strong implications for the mitigation strategies required to prevent spreading.

Modeling COVID-19 Growing Trends to Reveal the Differences in the Effectiveness of Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions among Countries in the World

Abstract

Objective: We hypothesize that COVID-19 case growth data reveals the efficacy of NPIs. In this study, we conduct a secondary analysis of COVID-19 case growth data to compare the differences in the effectiveness of NPIs among 16 representative countries in the world. Methods: This study leverages publicly available data to learn patterns of dynamic changes in the reproduction rate for sixteen countries covering Asia, Europe, North America, South America, Australia, and Africa. Furthermore, we model the relationships between the cumulative number of cases and the dynamic reproduction rate to characterize the effectiveness of the NPIs. We learn four levels of NPIs according to their effects in the control of COVID-19 growth and categorize the 16 countries into the corresponding groups. Results: The dynamic changes of the reproduction rate are learned via linear regression models for all of the studied countries, with the average adjusted R-squared at 0.96 and the 95% confidence interval as [0.94 0.98]. China, South Korea, Argentina, and Australia are at the first level of NPIs, which are the most effective. Japan and Egypt are at the second level of NPIs, and Italy, Germany, France, Netherlands, and Spain, are at the third level. The US and UK have the most inefficient NPIs, and they are at the fourth level of NPIs. Conclusions: COVID-19 case growth data provides evidence to demonstrate the effectiveness of the NPIs. Understanding the differences in the efficacy of the NPIs among countries in the world can give guidance for emergent public health events.

Incidence of thrombotic complications in critically ill ICU patients with COVID-19

Abstract
Introduction

COVID-19 may predispose to both venous and arterial thromboembolism due to excessive inflammation, hypoxia, immobilisation and diffuse intravascular coagulation. Reports on the incidence of thrombotic complications are however not available.
Methods

We evaluated the incidence of the composite outcome of symptomatic acute pulmonary embolism (PE), deep-vein thrombosis, ischemic stroke, myocardial infarction or systemic arterial embolism in all COVID-19 patients admitted to the ICU of 2 Dutch university hospitals and 1 Dutch teaching hospital.
Results

We studied 184 ICU patients with proven COVID-19 pneumonia of whom 23 died (13%), 22 were discharged alive (12%) and 139 (76%) were still on the ICU on April 5th 2020. All patients received at least standard doses thromboprophylaxis. The cumulative incidence of the composite outcome was 31% (95%CI 20-41), of which CTPA and/or ultrasonography confirmed VTE in 27% (95%CI 17-37%) and arterial thrombotic events in 3.7% (95%CI 0-8.2%). PE was the most frequent thrombotic complication (n = 25, 81%). Age (adjusted hazard ratio (aHR) 1.05/per year, 95%CI 1.004-1.01) and coagulopathy, defined as spontaneous prolongation of the prothrombin time > 3 s or activated partial thromboplastin time > 5 s (aHR 4.1, 95%CI 1.9-9.1), were independent predictors of thrombotic complications.
Conclusion

The 31% incidence of thrombotic complications in ICU patients with COVID-19 infections is remarkably high. Our findings reinforce the recommendation to strictly apply pharmacological thrombosis prophylaxis in all COVID-19 patients admitted to the ICU, and are strongly suggestive of increasing the prophylaxis towards high-prophylactic doses, even in the absence of randomized evidence.