quote:Tropical Cyclone Ava threatening Madagascar
A tropical cyclone designated 03S, named Ava at 09:00 UTC, January 3, has formed east of Madagascar and is currently affecting Reunion, Mauritius and especially northern Madagascar where heavy rain is already causing problems. This system is expected to continue organizing and gaining strength until it makes landfall early Friday, January 5, 2018 (UTC) along the northeastern coast of Madagascar. Be ready for strong winds, dangerous storm surge, heavy rain, flooding and landslides.
Ava is the first named cyclone of the 2017-18 South-West Indian Ocean cyclone season. It comes unusually late in a season which runs November 15 through April 30/May 15.
Showers produced by TC03S, now Ava, started across northern Madagascar late Tuesday, January 2 and intensified overnight Wednesday, reaching close to and over 200 mm (7.8 inches) in some places by Wednesday morning. Reunion and Mauritius saw first drops of rain around 09:00 UTC Tuesday and accumulated close to 100 mm (3.9 inches) in places over the next 24 hours.
This is a slow-moving cyclone with a potential to drop huge amounts of rain on Madagascar over the next couple of days, before and after landfall which is expected sometime around 09:00 UTC on January 5 in the vicinity of Toamasina (Madagascar is UTC+3).
These pre-landfall rains could set the stage for some serious flooding after already heavily soaked ground receives more intense downpours.
Tropical storm-force winds are expected as well as dangerous storm surge on top of rainfall amounts of 200 - 400 mm (8 - 16 inches), locally over 600 mm (24 inches).
Reunion and Mauritius are not in a direct track of this storm but will experience its effects over the next couple of days.
quote:Ava made landfall as a category 2 hurricane
Tropical Cyclone "Ava" made landfall in Toamasina, Madagascar on January 5, 2018 with maximum sustained winds of 167 km/h (103 mph), an equivalent a Category 2 hurricane on Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Ava is dropping heavy rain on Madagascar for several days now and is expected to continue producing heavy rains, strong winds and flooding as it moves over and along the coast of Madagascar over the next couple of days.
Ava is the first named cyclone of the unusually slow 2017-18 South-West Indian Ocean cyclone season. The season officially began on November 15, 2017, and will end officially on April 30, 2018, with the exception for Mauritius and Seychelles, for which it will end on May 15, 2018.
It reached hurricane strength with maximum sustained winds of 167 km/h (103 mph) around 15:00 UTC on January 5, a couple of hours before it made landfall.
Rising water levels have been observed in the Alaotra Mangoro and Analanjirofo regions, while flooding, interruptions to communications networks and power cuts have been reported in Fokontany Ambinany (Soanierana Ivongo), according to UN OCHA. Preventive evacuations began in Brickaville on January 4.
Mťtťo Madagascar, the national weather service for the country has issued red alerts and yellow alerts that cover a large area of the island's east coast.
Ava's interaction with land has somewhat weakened it and further weakening is expected as it traverses the country, but its heavy rain and strong winds will remain a significant threat to lives and property over the weekend.
There is a very high risk of major flooding and landslides as some places might receive as between 200 and 400 mm (8 - 16 inches) of rain and as much as 600 mm (24 inches) total.
quote:29 killed, 80 000 affected by Madagascar cyclone
Antananarivo - Twenty-nine people died and more than 80 000 were affected after tropical cyclone Ava tore through Madagascar last week, authorities said on Monday.
Seventeen people died on Monday, after a house crumbled following a mudslide in the Ivory suburb, south-east of the capital Antananarivo.
"On a national scale, the provisional toll is 29 dead, 22 missing, 17 170 displaced and 83 023 affected," the National Bureau for Risk and Catastrophe Management said in a statement.
The cyclone, which made landfall on Friday morning, lashed the eastern part of the African island off Mozambique with violent winds and heavy rains before moving off the territory on Saturday night.
The cyclone caused flash flooding in the capital Antananarivo and the port city of Toamasina and in the eastern town of Tamatave. Several homes were without power and roads cut off by felled trees.
Madagascar, one of the world's poorest countries, is regularly hit by cyclones.
In March last year, cyclone Enawo killed at least 78 people.
quote:Tropical Storm Joyce formed
Tropical Cyclone "Joyce" formed late January 10, 2018 (UTC), near the west Kimberly coast, Western Australia. The system is expected to intensify while moving in a S to SW direction. There is a risk of a severe tropical cyclone impacting the Pilbara or far west Kimberley coast during Friday or early on Saturday, BOM warns. This is the 5th named storm of the 2017-18 Australian region tropical cyclone season.
As of 06:47 UTC (14:47 AWST) on January 11, the center of Tropical Cyclone "Joyce" was located about 90 km (56 miles) NW of Broome and 155 km (96 miles) N of Bidyadanga. The system has maximum sustained winds of 75 km/h (46 mph) with wind gusts to 100 km/h (62 mph) and is moving S at 9 km/h (5.6 mph), according to BOM.
Cape Leveque to Port Hedland, including Broome and Port Hedland, as well as remaining inland parts of the far western Kimberley and far northeast Pilbara are currently in the warning zone.
Port Hedland to Dampier, including Karratha and Dampier, as well as remaining inland parts of the central and eastern Pilbara, including Nullagine, Marble Bar, Telfer, Newman and Tom Price are in the watch zone.
According to BOM, gales with gusts to 100 km/h (62 mph) are possible today between Cape Leveque and Bidyadanga. Gales may extend to areas between Bidyadanga and Wallal Downs during Thursday evening (local time), and to areas between Wallal Downs and Port Hedland on Friday. If the system tracks further to the west, gales will be possible in areas between Port Hedland and Karratha on Saturday.
Destructive winds with gusts to 130 km/h (81 mph) may develop in coastal parts between Beagle Bay and Wallal Downs, including Broome, on Thursday evening if the system is close enough to the coast. Destructive winds may extend to Pardoo Roadhouse during Friday.
Very destructive winds with gusts to 180 km/h (112 mph) are possible near the center of the system on Friday, if it develops into a severe tropical cyclone.
Tides will be higher than expected between Cape Leveque and Pardoo Roadhouse, BOM warns.
Heavy rainfall is expected over the northwest and west Kimberley coast, extending to the far eastern Pilbara during Thursday. Widespread daily rainfall totals of around 50 to 150 mm (1.9 - 5.9 inches) are expected with isolated heavier falls of 150 - 300 mm (5.9 - 11.8 inches) possible.
quote:Death toll in Madagascar cyclone rises to 33 as 22 missing
LATEST: Madagascar cyclone deaths rise to 78, at least 400 000 affected
Johannesburg - The UN humanitarian agency says the death toll from a cyclone in Madagascar has reached 33.
A statement on Wednesday cites Malagasy authorities and says another 22 people remain missing.
Tropical Cyclone Ava struck the Indian Ocean island over the weekend, causing the evacuation of more than 24 000 people.
The new statement says more than 34 000 children are out of school and road access to some areas in the country's south has been cut off.
quote:Tropical Cyclone "Joyce" makes landfall near Wallal Downs, Western Australia
Tropical Cyclone "Joyce" made landfall near Eighty Mile Beach, west of Wallal Downs in Western Australia just before 10:00 UTC on January 12, 2018 as Category 1 cyclone on the Australian tropical cyclone intensity scale. The system is expected to continue weakening as it interacts with the land but heavy rain is still expected to continue along its track over the weekend.
As of 09:00 UTC (17:00 AWST) on January 12, one hour before landfall, Joyce sustained winds near the center of 65 km/h (40 mph) and gusts to 95 km/h (59 mph). It was moving SW at 12 km/h (7 mph).
With its center now over land, the system is causing heavy rain and gusty winds over the northwestern parts of Western Australia. Bidyadanga to De Grey, as well as inland parts of the northeast Pilbara including Marble Bar are currently in the Warning Zone.
While the wind threat will ease overnight, heavy rain is expected to continue along Joyce's track over the weekend. Widespread daily rainfall totals of around 50 - 100 mm (2 - 4 inches) are expected, with isolated totals up to 250 mm (10 inches) possible near the center.
People living in areas south of Bidyadanga to Wallal are on Yellow Alert - take action and get ready to shelter. Areas south of Wallal to De Grey and inland to Marble Bar are on Blue Alert - prepare for cyclonic weather and organize an emergency kit including first aid kit, torch, portable radio, spare batteries, food and water.
quote:11.41am: Intense tropical storm to hit Mauritius on Wednesday
The intense tropical cyclone Berguitta is forecast to strike Mauritius as a tropical cyclone at about 6pm GMT on Wednesday, January 17, moving into the morning of Thursday, January 18 when the majority of the island will have been hit.
La Reunion is expected to be hit at 8am on Thursday, January 18 with winds of 140km/h.
Data supplied by the US Navy and Air Force Joint Typhoon Warning Center suggests the point of landfall in Mauritius will be near 19.9 S, 58.0 E.
11.03am: Berguitta's satellite imagery suggests the tropical cyclone has the power of a category 4 hurricane
Cody Fields tweeted: "#Berguitta has made the most out of the environment and its satellite presentation resembles that of a Category 4 hurricane. Very bad news for Rťunion and Mauritius."
Wow. Op de Australische schaal of de Saffir?quote:
1-2 als het in AustraliŽ aankomt, volgens het nieuws aldaar.quote:
quote:Marcus hits Darwin as category 2 storm
Tropical Cyclone "Marcus" formed March 16, 2018 as the 8th named storm of the 2017/18 Australian region tropical cyclone season. Marcus passed over Darwin as a Category 2 system on the Australian tropical cyclone intensity scale with sustained winds near the center of 95 km/h (59 mph) and wind gusts to 130 km/h (80 mph) as it moved southwest.
Marcus battered the city with strong winds and heavy rain, bringing down trees and power lines and shutting down local water supply. Emergency services urged residents to stay inside until the system passes.
This storm will continue to bring heavy rainfall and higher than normal tides through the area, which could produce some minor flooding of low-lying areas, BOM warns.
The cyclone warning zone is from Cape Don to Cape Fourcroy and Point Stuart to Mitchell Plateau in WA, this is where gales, sustained winds greater than 60 km/h (37 mph) can be expected in the next 24 hours.
As the system moves down the coast it is likely to interact with land and weaken to a category 1 system, though there is some uncertainty about how it will interact with land.
It will then re-intensify into a Category 2 system as it moves through the Timor Sea and brings destructive winds as it approaches the north Kimberley coast during Sunday, March 18.
There is a cyclone watch for areas from Mitchell Plateau to Cockatoo Island, where gales are possible in the next 24 - 48 hours. This system is likely to affect northern parts of the Kimberley and not move as far south as previous systems this season.
Tis daar ook niet best, storm geweest of veel pech met heel veel neerslag.twitter:
Ooit een tropische storm geweest daar...normaal gesproken komen ze daar niet voor.quote:Op zondag 18 maart 2018 14:49 schreef Adrie072 het volgende:Tis daar ook niet best, storm geweest of veel pech met heel veel neerslag.twitter:
quote:17 fatalities as Tropical Cyclone "Eliakim" moves over Madagascar
Tropical Cyclone "Eliakim" hit Madagascar's Mananara region on March 17 with wind speeds of 85 km/h (53 mph) and gusts to 120 km/h (75 mph). It then moved over the provinces of Analanjirofo and Antsinanana over the next 2 days, killing at least 17 people and leaving over 6 000 displaced. The storm dropped over 200 mm (7.8 inches) of rain in some areas within 24 hours and continued heading off the central and southeastern coast of Madagascar as a tropical storm.
At least 17 people were killed and 15 772 affected as Tropical Cyclone "Eliakim" hit eastern Madagascar over the weekend, authorities confirmed early Monday, March 19, 2018.
1 271 homes have been damaged and 648 destroyed, leaving 6 282 displaced. National authorities also reported that the access to the affected areas may be a major constraint due to a large number of landslides and flooded roads.
At 00:00 UTC on March 19, the center of Tropical Storm "Eliakim" was located 130 km (81 miles) SE of Manakara, Vatovavy-Fitovinany and was moving S at 18 km/h (11.5 mph) with maximum sustained winds of 83 km/h (51 mph).
Over the next 24 hours, it is forecast to keep heading southeast away from land, while strengthening. Heavy rain and strong winds may still affect northern, central and southern Madagascar and La Reunion on March 19 and 20.
Meteo Madagascar has published a red alert for strong winds in the southeastern areas of the country. Meteo France La Reunion has issued an orange alert for strong winds for the southwestern areas of the island.
The last cyclone to strike Madagascar was Ava in January 2018. That storm left 51 people dead.
quote:New cyclone coming on Friday
Coastal communities in north-east Arnhem land should prepare now for the predicted Tropical Cyclone Nora, which is expected to hit the region on Friday.
NT Emergency Services chief officer Jason Collins urged residents in this region to make plans, check cyclone kits and to ensure they had enough food and water to last 72 hours.
VHS radios and satellite phones should be charged, and residents should ensure they are aware of the warnings being released.
He urged people, especially tourists, to cancel travel plans to the region.
Although emergency service crews had been kept busy after Tropical Cyclone Marcus hit the Darwin region on Saturday, Mr Collins said fatigue management systems were in place and fresh crews were prepared in the region.
He said it had already been in contact with most communities and outstations by Wednesday afternoon.
"As it continues to move into the Gulf of Carpentaria conditions remain favourable there.
"People need to be preparing now."
It was too early to discern how intense it would be.
Tropical Cyclone Marcus is currently off the coast of Western Australia and a category-four storm, expected to become a category five, but should remain at sea.
The forecast cyclone should not impact Darwin weather.
Four days with no power
That should come as a relief for Darwin residents, as 2,500 homes still had no power on Wednesday afternoon after damage from Tropical Cyclone Marcus.
Power and Water said earlier on Wednesday that some residents could be waiting until Friday before their power is reconnected.
Tap water in the community of Belyuen is once again safe to drink.
'It's been a bit rough'
It could be weeks before Rod Tremlett's household returns to normality, after a mahogany crashed through the roof of his Moil home during the storm.
Given the demand for tradespeople, he thought there could be a long wait before the hole in the ceiling was fixed and power was reconnected.
zie ook:quote:Keni expected to lash Fiji tomorrow
Cyclone Keni is expected to be closest to Fiji about midday tomorrow, on the tail of a week of rain and Cyclone Josie the previous weekend.
Sashi Kiran, of the organisation FRIEND, said homes standing on saturated ground in the country's west and north are at risk with more rain and wind expected.
But she said people were so engrossed coping with recent floods, the impending cyclone is just another worry.
"They have seen their houses go, they have seen their whole cars go, they have seen their entire furniture go into a river. And then after that they've had to live in very wet clothes and in muddy conditions for days."
Sashi Kiran said people had been struggling with lack of drinking water and food.
Flood damage in Ba.Flood damage in Ba. Photo: Facebook/ FRIEND
The director of the Fiji Met Service, Ravindra Kumar, said Keni is expected to be about 120 kilometres off Nadi by mid afternoon Tuesday.
He said on its current southeasterly trajectory it will come within about 100 kilometres to the south of Kadavu Island later on Tuesday afternoon.
He said "we have a got a storm warning for parts of the main island [Viti Levu] and as it comes closer this storm warning will be expanded to most of Viti Levu, the Lau and Lomaiviti group, as well as Kadavu and nearby smaller islands".
Ravindra Kumar said they are anticipating 150 millimetres over 24 hours particularly in the Western Division, which is already sodden after last week's rain.
The cyclone is now a category two storm with sustained winds near its centre of about 100 kilometres an hour.
Meanwile civil servants in Fiji have been advised not to go into work tomorrow as the cyclone approaches
The Fiji Roads Authority has warned a large number of roads in the Western Division are closed, while parts of the key King's and Queen's Highways are reduced to single lane by flooding.
It also said there are significant issues with flooding on some roads in the Central Division.
Fiji Airways has cancelled several international, regional and local flights due to the bad weather.
Today's flights connecting Nadi to Auckland, Port Vila, Australian cities, Hong Kong and Los Angeles have been affected.
On some routes, passengers have been rebooked on other flights.
Fiji's sugar cane farmers brace for more bad weather
Farmers of Fiji's all-important sugar cane crop are bracing for more bad weather amid concerns production has already been chopped by a third.
Cyclone Keni is forecast to bring more rain and wind to western Fiji where most of the country's cane farms are located.
The General Secretary of the Cane Growers Association in Rakiraki, Pushp Dass said farmers were drastically affected by floods over Easter.
He said much of the nearly mature cane either fell down or was totally uprooted and the crop could be down by about 35 percent.
Mr Dass said the farmers will be looking for subsidies or a special cane payment once the bad weather's over.
"They can't do anything at the moment because of waterlogged farms because the rain has hardly stopped since Easter weekend. Mentally they are very disturbed but it's all natural. We can't do much about it."
quote:Harvey, Irma, Maria and Nate Retired Following Devastating 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season
Tropical cyclones that are so destructive and/or deadly can be retired from future name lists.
Through 2017, 86 Atlantic hurricane or tropical storm names have been retired.
Three tropical cyclone names from 2017 also have been retired in the Western Pacific Basin.
Harvey, Irma, Maria and Nate were so destructive and deadly during the 2017 Atlantic hurricane season that the World Meteorological Organization's hurricane committee decided this week to retire those names from future Atlantic Basin tropical cyclone name lists.
Just as no New York Yankee will ever again wear number 3 (Babe Ruth), nor will a Green Bay Packer ever claim 15 (Bart Starr), no future Atlantic hurricane will ever be named Harvey, Irma, Maria and Nate.
Unlike an athlete's number, however, there is no celebration when an Atlantic name is retired from future use.
Contrary to popular opinion, a committee of the World Meteorological Organization – not the U.S. National Hurricane Center – is responsible for the tropical cyclone name lists.
Atlantic hurricane and tropical storm name lists repeat every six years, unless one is so destructive and/or deadly that the committee votes to retire that name from future lists. This avoids the use of, say, Katrina, Sandy or Maria to describe a future weak, open-ocean tropical storm.
The names Harold, Idalia, Margot and Nigel will replace Harvey, Irma, Maria and Nate when the list is reused again in the year 2023.
quote:Above average hurricane season expected
A leading hurricane forecast is calling for a slightly above average storm season with 14 named storms, 7 hurricanes and 3 major hurricanes.
The prediction from Colorado State University’s Tropical Meteorology Project was released this morning at the National Tropical Weather Conference in San Antonio.
It follows at least two other forecasts made this month calling for a near average to above average hurricane season.
An average season has 12 named storms, 6 hurricanes and 3 major hurricanes.
The hyperactive 2017 hurricane season had 17 named storms, 10 hurricanes and 6 major hurricanes.
The federal Climate Prediction Center will release its hurricane forecast in late May.
CSU’s April forecast is a much-anticipated annual event because it’s typically one of the first forecasts of the year and is possibly the longest running. It was started in 1984 by William Gray, who passed away in 2016.
Hurricane researcher Phil Klotzbach, who was mentored by Gray, is now the lead author of the report.
Klotzbach said the forecast was largely based on a prediction that El NiŮo will not appear this summer or fall, with the atmosphere instead transitioning to neutral from a current weak La NiŮa event.
The CSU forecast also considers the probability of hurricanes making landfall. According to today’s prediction, there is a 72 percent chance that a named storm will hit an area that includes Florida’s coastline and the east coast. The average is 61 percent.
The probability of a major hurricane – Category 3-5 – will hit the same region is 39 percent, compared to an average of 31 percent.
“We anticipate a slightly above-average probability for major hurricanes making landfall along the continental U.S. coastline and in the Caribbean,” the CSU forecast notes.