Politieke ontwikkelingen in het Midden-Oosten

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Op zaterdag 25 november 2017 21:51 schreef Aloulu het volgende:
Jullie vergeten dat de statistieken mbt religieuze groepen in Libanon achterhaald zijn. Elke Libanees weet dat. Stamt uit het oude pakt maar Libanese Christenen zijn door de decennia heen de grootste groep die migreerden en nog steeds migreren. Ook omdat vele families van oudser bijv Franse paspoorten hadden en/of makkelijker verblijfsstatus kregen/krijgen.

De realiteit heeft die oude verdeling achterhaald maar men is terecht niet bereid het sektarische model op te geven op basis van een nieuwe telling. De grote families kom je bij conservatievere sjiitische en soennitische Libanezen tegen, niet de te weinig fokkende seculierdere stedelijkere Christelijke Libanezen.

Daarnaast zijn de rechten van Libanese Christenen wel juridisch goed beschermd maar gezien de ernstig verzwakte en bedreigde positie van Christenen in de regio de laatste vijftien jaar (beginnend met Iraakse exodus tot in Syrie nu) speelt dat ook bij Christelijke Libanezen wel flink als angstbeeld mee.

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Op zondag 26 november 2017 13:25 schreef Barbusse het volgende:

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Allemaal leuk en aardig, maar ik zie hier geen grote hand van Trump in.

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Op zondag 26 november 2017 13:24 schreef Barbusse het volgende:

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Jij denkt dat de hernieuwde samenwerkingspogingen tussen Israel en KSA op het konto van de VS te schrijven zijn? Ik heb meer het idee dat dit hun eigen conclusie was, maar ok... Nogmaals, state department wordt bijkans uitgekleed. De VS verliest enorm veel sof power daarmee. En met minder soft power krijgt de VS simpelweg minder voor elkaar diplomatiek gezien.

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Op zondag 26 november 2017 13:39 schreef Monolith het volgende:

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Ik zeg niet dat er makkelijke oplossingen voor het oprapen liggen. Ik stel dat de tactiek om het over te laten aan de bondgenoten nogal naïef is. Zoals anderen al aangeven zit je feitelijk nog steeds met de puinhopen van Bush. Niet dat die onder Obama nou zo voortvarend zijn opgeruimd, maar dat wordt ook nogal lastig als je je aan je verkiezingsbelofte om je terug te wilt houden.

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Op zondag 26 november 2017 15:44 schreef J.B. het volgende:

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Qatar boycotten met Amerikaanse steun lijkt me stug. Misschien de steun van Trump ja, aangezien het zo'n incompetente idioot is, maar de gemiddelde Amerikaan die een beetje verstand heeft van buitenlandse zaken weet dat de Amerikanen een enorme (en belangrijke!) legerbasis in Qatar hebben.

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Op zondag 26 november 2017 17:23 schreef Stabiel het volgende:

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Daar zijn de Golfstaten en Israel helemaal niet blij mee. Ze zien het liefst de VS in haar traditionele rol als leidende en actieve speler in het Midden-Oosten. De VS in een ondersteunende rol betekent nauwelijks meer dan het voorzien van wapentuig aan haar bondgenoten, terwijl moderne wapentuig nauwelijks efficiënt is wanneer het wordt gebruikt door intrinsiek incompetente legerstaten als Saoedie-Arabië. Iran heeft een veel verouderd leger, maar weet haar directe concurrenten en vijanden in haast elk conflictgebied strategisch te verslaan. Dit ondanks het feit dat het land leed, en nog steeds lijdt, onder pijnlijke sancties die de economische potentie van het land significant ondermijnt.

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Ik zie niet in hoe Israël, Saoedie-Arabië of zelfs de VS het tij kan keren. De VS moet simpelweg toegeven dat het niet langer de alleenheerser in het Midden-Oosten is, maar dat lokale machten als Iran, maar ook Turkije, steeds meer hun eigen koers varen en niet bang zijn om daarmee Amerikaanse belangen te ondermijnen. Daarbij komt kijken dat Rusland onomstotelijk de regionale 'power broker' is: geen ander land dat de presidenten van Iran, Turkije, Israël, Saoedie-Arabië, Qatar, Egypte, Irak en Syrië allemaal in haar hoofdstad ontvangt.

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Op zondag 26 november 2017 17:44 schreef Stabiel het volgende:

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Amerika als homogene entiteit bestaat niet. De crisis met Qatar liet goed het schisma tussen aan de ene kant het Witte Huis en aan de andere kant de State Department en Pentagon zien. Vandaar die enorme ambiguïteit, in welk geval conflicterende statements van Trump versus legerofficials/diplomaten, omtrent Amerika's positie in het conflict tussen beide golfstaten. Je ziet dat Trump en zijn gezant Kushner weliswaar steevast de kant van Saoedie-Arabië kiezen, maar dat het Amerikaanse leger en Ministerie van Buitenlandse Zaken daarentegen een veel neutralere positie innemen en meer bewust zijn van de gevoeligheid en complexiteit in de regio.

Wat veel mensen over het hoofd zien is dat de Amerikaanse machtsinstituten (Witte Huis, Pentagon, State Department, Congress) meer onafhankelijker van elkaar opereren dat menigeen denkt.

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Op maandag 27 november 2017 01:50 schreef Rangono het volgende:

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Kunnen ze samen met Israel Yemen naar de vernieling bombarderen. Cute wel.

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Op maandag 27 november 2017 12:21 schreef Rangono het volgende:

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Er valt als machtsblok altijd te winnen bij destabilisatie in het Midden-Oosten.

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True enough. But the Kremlin regarded everything to do with the so-called Arab spring as a western threat, having “watched, in amazement, the United States pulling the plug on their Egyptian ally, Hosni Mubarak, after a week of mass protests in Cairo’s Tahrir Square, and then putting up with Muslim Brotherhood Islamists in power”. Moscow wondered if the US was plotting a Russian spring.

To Putin, all this looked like an Arab rerun of the “colour revolutions” that swept across the old Soviet buffer, from Georgia to Ukraine. “Sparks from Arab revolutions could ignite Russia’s geopolitical underbelly,” Trenin writes. After Tahrir Square, “the Kiev Maidan of 2013-14 gave them a sense of what a successful urban revolt might look like”. But US blundering, above all in willing the downfall of Bashar al-Assad in Syria while refusing to give rebels the means to topple him, seeded a Russian sense of opportunity. “To Russian Arabists, Americans and their European allies were no more than hapless sorcerer’s apprentices who did not know what they were doing,” Trenin says.

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Mr Putin may feel his goal has been achieved: “Russia’s military engagement in Syria was not only, or even primarily about Syria or even the Middle East,” Trenin argues. “Moscow was seeking a comeback to the global arena as a great power.”

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CAIRO — As Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi welcomed Lebanese Prime Minister Saad Hariri on Nov. 21, he stressed the importance of preserving Lebanon's unity and the need to disassociate the country from the conflicts raging in the Middle East. Egypt and Lebanon are bound by a strong relationship that dates back to the 1940s.

A presidential statement issued on Nov. 21 stated that Sisi met with Hariri to discuss the latest developments in Beirut in the wake of Hariri’s abrupt resignation. During his meeting with Hariri, Sisi emphasized the need for the Lebanese parties to uphold the supreme national interest of the Lebanese people and reject any foreign interference in their internal affairs.

The meeting between Sisi and Hariri came hours before the Lebanese prime minister returned to Beirut on Nov. 22 and announced that he postponed his widely controversial resignation, which he had declared from Riyadh on Nov. 4.

Following his meeting with Hariri, Sisi received a phone call from Lebanese President Michel Aoun, during which the two counterparts discussed the political situation in Lebanon.

According to analysts contacted by Al-Monitor, Egypt has played an active role in calming the situation in Lebanon since the announcement of Hariri's resignation, stressing the need to spare the region new battlegrounds. In a press statement issued Nov. 9 on the sidelines of the World Youth Forum, Sisi stressed Egypt’s rejection of any Iranian interference in the Gulf region.

Hariri attributed his resignation to Iran's intervention in his country’s domestic affairs and said he feared being assassinated. He remained in Saudi Arabia after his resignation before he embarked on a tour Nov. 18 that included France, Egypt and Cyprus to discuss his resignation crisis.

Tarek Fahmi, a political science professor at the American University of Cairo, told Al-Monitor that Hariri had visited Egypt before returning to Beirut, as he wanted to derive strength from central Arab parties in the face of Iran. Hariri, he added, had announced his resignation from Saudi Arabia and visited the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain and Egypt, which are Arab countries confronting Tehran and whose roles go in line with the Egyptian role in Lebanon.

The day after Hariri announced his resignation, Sisi met with Lebanese parliamentary speaker Nabih Berri in Sharm el-Sheikh. Berri had arrived in Egypt Nov. 4 to attend the inauguration of the World Youth Forum. During the meeting, Sisi stressed Egypt’s interest in preserving Lebanon’s security and stability. He also told Berri that only the Lebanese should work on finding the political formula that they see fit and that caters to their interests, adding that such interests must be prioritized.

“What Cairo has done aims to serve the Arab national security," Fahmi said. "Egypt is a committed Arab country whenever a crisis erupts, and [Hariri’s] visit conveys an important message whereby the major Arab parties are widely present in the Lebanese arena.”

Fahmi's comments go in line with statements made by the Egyptian president on Nov. 8 concerning his opposition to military strikes against Iran or the Tehran-backed Lebanese Hezbollah because the region cannot afford further unrest.

Hussein Haridi, former assistant to the foreign minister, told Al-Monitor, “Egypt does not want to increase the hotbeds and flashpoints in the region, and it is doing its best to contain any negative repercussions that may arise from Hariri's resignation.”

He said that Cairo's position stems from a conviction that no foreign countries should interfere in Lebanon’s domestic affairs. It also wants to give the internal forces the chance to choose the policies that best fit their country.

In a bid to contain the Lebanese crisis, Egyptian Foreign Minister Sameh Shoukry started a six-nation tour on Nov. 12 that included Jordan, the UAE, Kuwait, Bahrain, Oman and Saudi Arabia.

Egyptian Foreign Ministry spokesman Ahmed Abu Zeid said in a statement Nov. 11 that the visit came based on Egypt's desire to contain any crises that could cause tensions and instability in the region.

Ahmed Youssef Ahmed, the former director of the Institute of Arab Research and Studies of the Arab League, told Al-Monitor that Egypt wants to achieve some kind of Lebanese consensus so that the “Iranian-Saudi” polarization will not be at the expense of Lebanon and the security of the region. He explained that Sisi made it clear from the very beginning that Egypt was against any escalation in Lebanon and was not planning any military actions against Hezbollah.

Tension has been growing between Saudi Arabia and Iran in the region ever since Hariri's sudden resignation, as Saudi Arabia accused Hezbollah of being behind the rocket launched into Riyadh from Yemen in early November.

“Egypt is clearly working on protecting Arab national states against any threats,” Youssef said, pointing out that “attempts to blow up the situation in Lebanon will be costly for the entire region because Hezbollah is part of Lebanon.”

He added, “We do not accept that Hezbollah be allowed to enjoy military force at a time when other political movements are not allowed to, but we must recognize that it is a political force in Lebanon and that there are political methods that must be followed in dealing with it. In parallel, Egypt works firmly to ward off any risk that could threaten the Gulf security.”

Sisi asserted Nov. 8 that “the security of the Gulf is a red line,” and added that “others [Iran] should not interfere in our affairs. Just like we say we do not want wars on them, they need to make sure that things do not by any means reach the point of collision because that would not be in anyone’s interest.”

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This first-of-its-kind Knesset event was chaired by Ksenia Svetlova, the Chairperson of the Lobby for Strengthening the Relationship between the State of Israel and the Kurdish People.

When every nation turned away from Kurdish aspirations for independence, Israel alone stood with the Kurdish people, recalled President of the Kurdish European Society Kahraman Evsen at a Knesset conference Wednesday devoted to Kurdistan and Israel. Speaking Tuesday to a room full of MKs and Kurdish and Jewish NGO heads and activists, Evsen said Kurds and Jews share the same values and principles.

“We need to enhance our cooperation at all levels,” he said.

This first-of-its-kind Knesset event was chaired by Ksenia Svetlova, the Chairperson of the Lobby for Strengthening the Relationship between the State of Israel and the Kurdish People.

Svetlova hosted the event with the International Legal Forum, a global legal coalition initiating and centralizing efforts for human rights in the international arena. Titled “Kurdistan and Israel, together towards peace and stability in the Middle East,” the gathering included a long list of activists and intellectuals who have been active in recent years to encourage closer relations between Kurds and Jews as well as between the Kurdistan region and Israel. Opening the meeting, flanked by Zionist Union’s Tzipi Livni and Yossi Yonah, Bayit Yehudi’s Eli Ben-Dahan and Yifa Segal of the International Legal Forum, Svetlova said that until Israel can celebrate the creation of a Kurdish State, it should focus on other aspects of cooperation. “There are similarities in our destinies,” she said, speaking on November 29 and reminding listeners of the auspicious anniversary of the UN partition vote in 1947. “It is not just another day, today we celebrate the recognition of the State of Israel by the United Nations,” she said. “We understand we live in a world of challenges and there is an extremist religious ideology that is taking over with terrorist organizations and we as a state and you [Kurds] face the same nature of threat and it needs to be addressed by all of us,” said Livni. “You should know, here you can find friends. I am in the opposition and we have a gap with what the ideology of the government coalition is, [but] when it comes to Kurdish people we all feel the same.” Yossi Yonah, whose parents were born in what is now the Sunni Arab heartland of Iraq near Ramadi, also stressed the common characteristics that Jews and Kurds have historically in seeking a state of their own through self-determination. “They have been suffering persecution in the various states they exist, so this enhances the justification of the demand for self-determination.” Besides reminding those present that Jews and Kurds have a shared historical struggle for independence and share similar enemies, several of the speakers noted the fact that their relatives came from Iraq or Kurdish areas, or that family members had married Kurdish Jews. The parents of Moshe Raz of Meretz, for instance, had come from near Mosul to British Palestine via Beirut in 1931, he said. Deputy Minister for Public Diplomacy Michael Oren recalled serving alongside Jews of Kurdish origin in the army. Opposition leader Isaac Herzog said that Israel’s relations with Kurds go back to the era of Prime Minister David Ben-Gurion and praised the “impressive democratic society” and booming economy of the Kurdistan region of Iraq. “Clearly the Kurdish people are locked between forces and part of an international game that is extremely complex,” he said. He expressed that the issues facing Kurds should be discussed in the Knesset and that Israel has something to contribute to this conversation. Oren agreed that Kurds are deeply deserving of freedom. “Someday the Kurdish people will receive the sovereignty which they so richly and historically deserve. Therefore we have to prepare the ground.” Like several others, he said that cooperation could also include agricultural support and other economic issues. For some of the Kurds present, the event was a welcomed sign. Zorav Darisiro from the Free Kurds NGO in Norway said that he was happy to see Kurdish Jewry was alive and well in Israel. He even found an elderly Kurdish man to speak Kurdish to who had come to the meeting. Ceng Sagnic, the Coordinator of the Moshe Dayan Center’s Kurdish Studies Program, praised the professionalism of those present and said that Kurds could benefit from the experience Israel has after 69 years of independence. Dr. Mordechai Zaken, an author and expert on Kurdish Jews, said that Israel’s relationship with Kurdistan goes back decades and that the group he founded called the Israeli-Kurdistan Friendship League had pioneered this connection in the 1990s. For Svetlova, the historic meeting was a chance to build on the historic relations with Kurds and to continue down the path of a strategic alliance, which includes working together against common enemies in the region. “The invitation is open [to continue working together],” she said in her concluding remarks.

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The unprecedented embrace of the Israeli flag comes amidst Israel’s support for Kurdish rights and historic connections between the two nations.



In recent weeks Israel flags appeared frequently among the sea of Kurdish flags at pro-independence rallies across Europe and in the Kurdistan region of northern Iraq. In Cologne in late August and then Geneva and Oslo, Israel flags were waved proudly by attendees. On September 16 the blue and white appeared at rallies in Brussels, Hamburg and Stockholm. The unprecedented embrace of the Israeli flag comes amidst Israel’s support for Kurdish rights and historic connections between the two nations.

Keulen:


The rallies are in response to an independence referendum planned by the Kurdistan Regional Government for September 25. Announced in June, the Kurdistan parliament in the autonomous region in northern Iraq approved it on September 15. Since September 5 the Kurdistan region and diaspora communities have been holding increasingly large rallies in support of the nation’s hopes for independence. This has been more than 100 years in the making, say many Kurds. The Kurdish people live in Turkey, Iran, Syria and Iraq, divided by the colonial borders set down after the fall of the Ottoman Empire. In Iraq they have enjoyed autonomy since the 1990s. After three years of war against ISIS the local government thinks it is time to show the world that the people want independence.



The international community’s response has been tepid. On September 15 the White House released a statement saying the United States does not support the intention to hold a referendum. Other members of the international coalition fighting ISIS, who have been working with the Kurds and the Iraqi government, have also pressured the KRG to postpone. Israel is the only country to openly back Kurdish aspirations. “Israel supports the legitimate efforts of the Kurdish people to achieve their own state,” Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s office said on September 13. Speaking at the ICT’s World Counter-Terrorism summit on September 11, Justice Minister Ayelet Shaked said, “Israel and countries in the West have a major interest in the establishment of the state of Kurdistan."

Geneve:


In the Kurdistan region, Israeli flags have also been brought to Akre, Dohuk and Erbil rallies. Tens of thousands have attended these events. At no other rallies in the Middle East outside of Israel are Israeli flags present. In Egypt a recent controversy even erupted over the image of an Israeli flag in a textbook. In Iran the only Israeli flags on display are when they are being burned or trampled. Even across Europe and the West, Israeli flags are often a point of controversy, banned from events or the recipient of ire at anti-Israel protests.

Today in #Oslo #Norway Kurdish people celebrated #Kurdistan Independence Day coming 25 of September ❤️☀️ pic.twitter.com/6aDsQpD6gG
— #Yes4Kurdistan ☀️ (@Parvanamedian) September 9, 2017

Kurds, however, have a long history of connections to Israel, both when Jews lived in Kurdistan before the foundation of Israel and after, when Israel sent clandestine assistance to Kurds resisting Iraqi oppression. In recent years Israeli politicians have increasingly expressed open support for Kurds. In conversations I’ve had with Kurdish soldiers, politicians and locals, they generally see Israel and their people as facing the same enemies, whether it is Saddam Hussein’s genocide in the 1980s or Islamist extremism such as ISIS more recently. Today Iran and its Shia militias across the region threaten Kurds and Israel.

Erbil:


Jerusalem Post Israel News
IN PICTURES: KURDS ARE FLYING ISRAELI FLAGS AT INDEPENDENCE RALLIES

> Kurdistan’s independence: How to untie the Kurdish-Iraqi Gordian knot?
> Netanyahu to Congressmen: Kurds should have a state
BY SETH J. FRANTZMAN SEPTEMBER 17, 2017 10:51
The unprecedented embrace of the Israeli flag comes amidst Israel’s support for Kurdish rights and historic connections between the two nations.

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IN PICTURES: Kurds are flying Israeli flags at independence rallies
A Kurdish man holds an Israeli and Kurdish flag during a rally to show their support for the upcoming September 25th independence referendum in Erbil, Iraq September 16, 2017.. (photo credit: REUTERS/AZAD LASHKARIG)

In recent weeks Israel flags appeared frequently among the sea of Kurdish flags at pro-independence rallies across Europe and in the Kurdistan region of northern Iraq. In Cologne in late August and then Geneva and Oslo, Israel flags were waved proudly by attendees. On September 16 the blue and white appeared at rallies in Brussels, Hamburg and Stockholm. The unprecedented embrace of the Israeli flag comes amidst Israel’s support for Kurdish rights and historic connections between the two nations.

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buhar Qasim
@buhardar
The most beautiful thing in #Cologne_Festival for Independence of Kurdistan was raising #kurdistan_flag next to #Israel_flag 🇮🇱🇭🇺
4:54 AM - Aug 27, 2017
4 4 Replies 23 23 Retweets 32 32 likes
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The rallies are in response to an independence referendum planned by the Kurdistan Regional Government for September 25. Announced in June, the Kurdistan parliament in the autonomous region in northern Iraq approved it on September 15. Since September 5 the Kurdistan region and diaspora communities have been holding increasingly large rallies in support of the nation’s hopes for independence. This has been more than 100 years in the making, say many Kurds. The Kurdish people live in Turkey, Iran, Syria and Iraq, divided by the colonial borders set down after the fall of the Ottoman Empire. In Iraq they have enjoyed autonomy since the 1990s. After three years of war against ISIS the local government thinks it is time to show the world that the people want independence.

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Mardini
@MardiniAlan3
From yesterday's historic Kurdish independence festival in Köln.The beautiful Israeli flags are everywhere along Kurdish flags.Biji Israel🇮🇱
6:22 AM - Aug 28, 2017
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The international community’s response has been tepid. On September 15 the White House released a statement saying the United States does not support the intention to hold a referendum. Other members of the international coalition fighting ISIS, who have been working with the Kurds and the Iraqi government, have also pressured the KRG to postpone. Israel is the only country to openly back Kurdish aspirations. “Israel supports the legitimate efforts of the Kurdish people to achieve their own state,” Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s office said on September 13. Speaking at the ICT’s World Counter-Terrorism summit on September 11, Justice Minister Ayelet Shaked said, “Israel and countries in the West have a major interest in the establishment of the state of Kurdistan.”

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Global Times
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@globaltimesnews
People attend a demonstration in support of the referendum for independence of Kurdish Iraq in Geneva, Switzerland. (VCG/Pierre Albouy)
10:15 AM - Sep 11, 2017
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In the Kurdistan region, Israeli flags have also been brought to Akre, Dohuk and Erbil rallies. Tens of thousands have attended these events. At no other rallies in the Middle East outside of Israel are Israeli flags present. In Egypt a recent controversy even erupted over the image of an Israeli flag in a textbook. In Iran the only Israeli flags on display are when they are being burned or trampled. Even across Europe and the West, Israeli flags are often a point of controversy, banned from events or the recipient of ire at anti-Israel protests.

Today in #Oslo #Norway Kurdish people celebrated #Kurdistan Independence Day coming 25 of September ❤️☀️ pic.twitter.com/6aDsQpD6gG
— #Yes4Kurdistan ☀️ (@Parvanamedian) September 9, 2017

Kurds, however, have a long history of connections to Israel, both when Jews lived in Kurdistan before the foundation of Israel and after, when Israel sent clandestine assistance to Kurds resisting Iraqi oppression. In recent years Israeli politicians have increasingly expressed open support for Kurds. In conversations I’ve had with Kurdish soldiers, politicians and locals, they generally see Israel and their people as facing the same enemies, whether it is Saddam Hussein’s genocide in the 1980s or Islamist extremism such as ISIS more recently. Today Iran and its Shia militias across the region threaten Kurds and Israel.

Erbil:


The Iraqi central government in Baghdad has opposed the referendum and threatened the Kurdish region with repercussions if it goes ahead.

De enige niet-Koerdische vlag:


Masoud Barzani, the president of the KRG, has said the referendum will not be postponed and that “dialogue with Baghdad will resume after the referendum.” The pro-referendum Kurdish leadership has stressed that the referendum is a natural right.



As the referendum date nears, there is a growing presence of Israeli flags and a feeling that the West has not stood by Kurdish democratic desires and demands for the same freedoms and referendums that have been held in Western states such as the Scottish referendum or Brexit. So far the flags have not engendered much controversy. Historically in Arab nationalist circles, Kurdistan was accused of being a “second Israel.” Ofra Bengio noted in a 2014 article for Middle East Quarterly that as early as 1966 Iraqi defense minister Abd al-Aziz al-Uqayli used this accusation. Given the long history of accusations against Kurds, it seems the visibility of the Israeli flag represents the maturation of decades of cultivation of this unique relationship.

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US president could offer recognition while delaying embassy move to city for another six months

US President Donald Trump is considering recognizing Jerusalem as Israel’s capital, officials said Thursday, adding weight to reports that have been circulating in Israeli media. The announcement would be a way to offset a likely decision delaying his campaign promise to move the US Embassy to the holy city from Tel Aviv, the US officials said. Trump’s announcement is expected next week and follows months of internal deliberations that grew particularly intense in recent days, according to officials familiar with the talks. They described the president as intent on fulfilling his pledge to move the embassy but also mindful that doing so could set back his aim of forging a long-elusive peace agreement between Israel and the Palestinians, who claim part of Jerusalem as the capital of an eventual state.

The State Department recently advised American diplomatic posts in predominantly Muslim nations that an announcement about the embassy and Jerusalem’s status is possible next week, and advised them to be vigilant about possible protests, officials said. The officials, who weren’t authorized to publicly discuss the matter and spoke on condition of anonymity, said the outlines of Trump’s plan emerged from a meeting of his top national security advisers at the White House on Monday. Trump himself was expected to drop by the meeting for 15 or 20 minutes. He ended up staying for at least an hour and grew increasingly animated during the session, according to two officials briefed on what happened.

Trump is likely to issue a waiver on moving the embassy by Monday, officials said, though they cautioned that the president could always decide otherwise.

Israeli media has been buzzing since Wednesday with reports that Trump is about to declare he recognizes Jerusalem as Israel’s capital and, possibly, make comments about instructing his team to begin preparations for moving the embassy. An Israeli TV report to this effect on Wednesday evening was characterized by the White House as “premature.”

The Trump administration insisted the president hasn’t made any decisions on the embassy.

“The president has always said it is a matter of when, not if,” a White House spokesperson said. “The president is still considering options and we have nothing to announce.”

The White House also is considering a possible presidential speech or statement on Jerusalem by Wednesday, according to the officials and an outside administration adviser. Another possibility involves Vice President Mike Pence, who is set to travel to Israel in mid-December, making the Jerusalem announcement during his trip, one official said. Pence said Tuesday that Trump is “actively considering when and how” to move the embassy.

White House spokesman Sarah Sanders on Wednesday called an earlier report saying Trump would order an embassy move as “premature.”

Moving the embassy is a step that could spark widespread protest across the Middle East and undermine an Arab-Israeli peace push led by president’s son-in-law, Jared Kushner. Trump’s campaign season promises won him the support of powerful pro-Israel voices in the Republican Party. But as president, he has faced equally forceful lobbying from close US allies such as King Abdullah II of Jordan, who have impressed on him the dangers in abandoning America’s longstanding position on the holy city. Under US law signed by President Bill Clinton in 1995, the US must relocate its embassy from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem unless the president waives the requirement on national security grounds, something required every six months. If the waiver isn’t signed and the embassy doesn’t move, the State Department would lose half its funding for its facilities and their security around the world. Republicans have championed embassy security since a 2012 attack on American compounds in Benghazi, Libya. All presidents since Clinton have issued the waiver, saying Jerusalem’s status is a matter for Israelis and Palestinians to negotiate. Trump signed the waiver at the last deadline in June, but the White House made clear he still intended to move the embassy. Trump’s approach appears to thread a fine needle, much like he did with the Iran nuclear deal. After vowing to pull out, Trump in October decertified the agreement as no longer serving America’s national interests. But he didn’t announce new sanctions or take any other step to immediately revoke the accord.

Now, as then, he faced significant resistance from his top national security advisers. At Monday’s White House meeting, Defense Secretary James Mattis and Secretary of State Rex Tillerson made the case that moving the embassy in Israel would pose a grave danger to American diplomats and troops stationed in the Middle East and Muslim nations, the US officials said.

King Abdullah II, who met Pence and Tillerson this week in Washington, made the same argument, telling the vice president and others that any change to the embassy in the absence of an Israeli-Palestinian peace deal would create unrest and instability throughout the region and drive up anti-American sentiment, according to the officials. After a lengthy back and forth at the White House meeting, Trump and his inner circle appeared to accept those concerns but insisted that the president had to demonstrate his stated commitment to move the embassy, the officials said. The discussion then turned toward waiving the embassy move for another six months but combining it with recognition of Jerusalem as Israel’s eternal capital, which the Israelis have long sought. Inside the Trump administration, officials said debate now centers on how to make a Jerusalem announcement without affecting Israeli-Palestinian “final status” negotiations. One option under consideration is to include in any such statement a nod to Palestinian aspirations for their capital to be in East Jerusalem. The US also faces legal constraints. Recognizing Jerusalem as Israel’s capital without a peace deal could run afoul of UN Security Council resolutions that don’t recognize Israeli sovereignty over the city. Washington has a veto on the council and could block any effort to declare the US in violation, but any such vote risks being an embarrassment and driving a wedge between the United States and many of its closest allies.