Zonnevlammen, Zonnestormen en CME #4:

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Op maandag 9 januari 2023 20:44 schreef MissHobje het volgende:

[..]
Krijgen we daar last van?

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Continued likelihood of M-class flares and a chance of X-class through January 13

Solar activity is expected to remain moderate through January 13, with the continuing likelihood of M-class flares (70%) and a chance of X-class events (30%) due primarily to the combined flare probabilities of Regions 3181, 3182, 3184, and 3186. A total of 3 X-class solar flares erupted since January 6, including X2.2 — the second strongest solar flare of Solar Cycle 25.

Solar activity reached high levels in 24 hours to 00:30 UTC on January 11, 2023, following an impulsive X1/2b flare — the third X-class solar flare since January 61 — from Region 3186 (beta-delta) which was the most active region during the period and the source of an M5/Sf (R2-Moderate) flare at 00:16 UTC on January 10, an M1.3 flare at 17:28 UTC, and multiple C-class flares.

The region appeared to possess a delta configuration from likely mixed polarity umbrae within the leader penumbral area.2

X1.0 solar f lare on January 10. This is the third X-class solar flare over the past 5 days, following X1.2 at 00:52 UTC on January 6 and X1.9 at 18:50 UTC on January 9 — the second strongest solar flare of Solar Cycle 25
Additionally, Region 3181 (beta-gamma) grew in coverage and spread in heliographic extent and produced a few M-class flares.

Region 3182 (beta-gamma-delta) — the source of the X1.2 solar flare on January 6 — weakened but retained its bipolar configuration, mainly producing optical subflares.3

Region 3184 (beta-delta) rotated further into view and despite some foreshortening, produced a few M-class flares. This was the source of the X1.9 solar flare on January 9.4

New Region 3187 (alpha) was assigned, but the region was inactive while Region 3185 (beta) produced a C5.3 flare.

The remaining regions changed little or underwent some decay.

No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.

olar activity is likely to remain moderate through January 13, with the continuing likelihood of M-class flares (70%) and a chance of X-class events (30%) due primarily to the combined flare probabilities of Regions 3181, 3182, 3184, and 3186.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached moderate levels during the period and is expected to be normal to moderate through January 13. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels, with a slight chance of an S1 -Minor solar radiation storm due to the combined solar energetic proton event potential of the several large sunspot group complexes present.

Solar wind parameters were indicative of a minor disturbance in the IMF and slight escalation in solar wind speed, likely due to proximity to an anticipated coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS). Disturbances and enhancements in the solar wind field are likely to continue on January 11 due to effects from proximity to or weak connection with an isolated, negative polarity CH HSS. Any influences are anticipated to wane on January 12 and a return to a more ambient-like state is expected on January 13.

The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels in response to the mildly enhanced and disturbed solar wind field, and the same conditions are expected to continue through January 11, with a return to mainly quiet levels on January 12 and 13.

X1.0 solar flare erupts from Region 3186 — CME produced

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Op zondag 26 februari 2023 22:46 schreef Starhopper het volgende:
Ik zie nu zwak poollicht aan de horizon Op de foto's is het waanzinnig!

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G2 – Moderate geomagnetic storming due to CH HSS effects combined with CME

Our planet is under the influence of a positive polarity coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS) today, March 15, 2023, combined with an impact from the coronal mass ejection (CME) produced on March 10. G2 – Moderate geomagnetic storm threshold was reached at 05:59 UTC and the geomagnetic field is likely to reach G1 – Minor geomagnetic storming levels, with a chance for isolated G2 – Moderate periods on March 15 and 16 due to any flanking effects from CMEs produced on March 11 to 13.

The solar wind environment in 24 hours to 00:30 UTC on March 16 reflected positive polarity CH HSS onset and what is likely transient influence from CME produced on March 10.

The total field peaked at 16 nT near 04:31 UTC on March 14. The Bz component was primarily +/- 11 nT with a few sustained southward deflections of -6 to -8 nT. Phi was positive but became somewhat variable between approximately 07:00 on March 14.

Positive polarity CH HSS influences are expected to continue mostly through March 17.

A CME, likely produced on March 11, impacted Earth at 04:28 UTC on March 15.

Geomagnetic K-index of 6 threshold — G2 – Moderate geomagnetic storm, was reached about an hour and a half later, at 05:59 UTC.

G2 – Moderate geomagnetic storm potential impacts:

Area of impact primarily poleward of 55 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.

Induced Currents – Power grid fluctuations can occur. High-latitude power systems may experience voltage alarms. Spacecraft – Satellite orientation irregularities may occur; increased drag on low Earth-orbit satellites is possible. Radio – HF (high frequency) radio propagation can fade at higher latitudes. Aurora may be seen as low as New York to Wisconsin to Washington state.

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‘Zonnestorm kan grootste file aller tijden veroorzaken’
De autonome auto’s van morgen worden geprogrammeerd om te kunnen omgaan met barre winterse omstandigheden, onoplettende voetgangers en zelfs vogelpoep, maar het grootste gevaar kan een zonnestorm zijn die de gps-communicatie uitschakelt en wegen verandert in gigantische parkeerterreinen.

Bloomberg waarschuwde al eerder voor een overmatige afhankelijkheid van satellietgegevens, aangezien deze problemen kunnen veroorzaken voor zelfrijdende voertuigen. De zon produceert namelijk regelmatig zonnevlammen en plasmawolken en slingert daarbij magnetische velden en allerlei geladen deeltjes de ruimte in. Meestal merken we weinig van deze zogeheten zonnestormen, behalve door het kleurrijke Noorderlicht rond de polen, veroorzaakt doordat geladen deeltjes botsen met de bovenste atmosfeer. Maar het probleem is dat ze tevens de communicatie op aarde kunnen verstoren.

Cyclus
Zonnestormen worden, net als orkanen, qua intensiteit beoordeeld op een schaal van 1 tot 5. Nasa heeft twee ruimtevaartuigen beschikbaar die de zonneactiviteit in de gaten houden en de Amerikaanse luchtmacht heeft ook een systeem ontwikkeld om mogelijke verstoringen van communicatie- en navigatiesystemen te voorspellen. Op dit moment lijken we ons in een pauze van zonneactiviteit te bevinden. De uitbarstingen volgen over het algemeen een cyclus van elf jaar, die het laatst zijn hoogtepunt bereikte in 2014.

Perfecte storm
Vaak zijn de zonnevlammen en plasmawolken niet op de aarde gericht. En zelfs als dat wel het geval is, hebben we altijd het beschermende aardmagnetisch veld nog. Maar ook dat aardmagnetisch veld kan ons niet beschermen tegen ‘The Perfect Storm‘: een samenloop van omstandigheden die leidt tot extreem, op de aarde gericht, ruimteweer. Dat gebeurde bijvoorbeeld in 1859 toen de zon ervoor zorgde dat de telegraafverbinding tussen Europa en Amerika door kortsluiting uitviel. En in 1989 zorgde een plasmawolk ervoor dat een elektriciteitsnetwerk in Canada werd uitgeschakeld, waardoor 6 miljoen mensen meer dan negen uur zonder stroom zaten.

12 procent
Maar hoe groot is nu de kans dat we op korte termijn weer zo’n heftig scenario voor de kiezen krijgen? In 2012 stelden deskundigen dat de kans dat we binnen tien jaar wederom getroffen worden door een zonnestorm zoals we die in 1859 zagen, ongeveer 12 procent is. Mede daarom nemen ingenieurs van geautomatiseerde auto’s en vrachtwagens stappen om onverwachte storingen zoals zonnestormen op te vangen. Sommige zelfrijdende systemen bevatten bijvoorbeeld regionale kaarten waarmee auto’s zonder satellietnavigatie de volgende snelwegafrit kunnen vinden.

Mad Max
Volgens experts in kunstmatige intelligentie zijn er voldoende veiligheidsmaatregelen ingebouwd om een Mad Max-achtig scenario op snelwegen na een zonnestorm te voorkomen. Volgens Danny Shapiro van Nvidia, een techbedrijf dat gespecialiseerd is in onder andere kunstmatige intelligentie, zouden auto’s in het slechtste geval zichzelf stilzetten op de vluchtstrook. ,,De meeste auto’s zijn bovendien niet permanent afhankelijk van gps-gegevens wanneer ze door de stad navigeren.”

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Space Weather Message Code: ALTK07
Serial Number: 124
Issue Time: 2023 Mar 23 1450 UTC
ALERT: Geomagnetic K-index of 7
Threshold Reached: 2023 Mar 23 1446 UTC
Synoptic Period: 1200-1500 UTC
Active Warning: Yes
NOAA Scale: G3 - Strong
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 50 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Power system voltage irregularities possible, false alarms may be triggered on some protection devices.
Spacecraft - Systems may experience surface charging; increased drag on low Earth-orbit satellites and orientation problems may occur.
Navigation - Intermittent satellite navigation (GPS) problems, including loss-of-lock and increased range error may occur.
Radio - HF (high frequency) radio may be intermittent.
Aurora - Aurora may be seen as low as Pennsylvania to Iowa to Oregon.

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Unexpected G4 – Severe geomagnetic storm

A combination of factors led to unexpectedly strong geomagnetic storm levels on Thursday, March 23, and Friday, March 24, 2023. The storm reached G3 – Strong levels at 14:49 UTC on March 23 and escalated to G4 – Severe at 04:04 UTC on March 24. The precise cause of this geomagnetic storm is still under investigation, but it is possible that coronal mass ejections (CMEs) from March 20 to 21 played a role.

This is the most intense geomagnetic storm in nearly 6 years.

Geomagnetic storms of this intensity occur on average 100 times per solar cycle

Initially, SWPC predicted that the arrival of a co-rotating interaction region (CIR) ahead of a recurrent, negative polarity coronal hole high-speed stream (CH HSS) would disturb the geomagnetic field, leading to G1 – Minor conditions on March 23. This disturbance, along with nearby transients, was expected to produce G2 – Moderate conditions on March 24. However, contrary to predictions, the geomagnetic field exhibited G3 – Strong levels on March 23 and G4 – Severe early on March 24.

The unanticipated intensity of the geomagnetic storm may have resulted from a stealthy CME or a combination of events, including CMEs from March 20 and 21.

G3 – Strong geomagnetic storm potential impacts:

The area of impact is primarily poleward of 50 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.

Induced Currents – Power system voltage irregularities possible, false alarms may be triggered on some protection devices.
Spacecraft – Systems may experience surface charging; increased drag on low Earth-orbit satellites and orientation problems may occur.
Navigation – Intermittent satellite navigation (GPS) problems, including loss-of-lock and increased range error may occur.
Radio – HF (high frequency) radio may be intermittent.
Aurora – Aurora may be seen as low as Pennsylvania to Iowa to Oregon.
G4 – Severe geomagnetic storm impacts:

The area of impact is primarily poleward of 45 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.

Induced Currents – Possible widespread voltage control problems and some protective systems may mistakenly trip out key assets from the power grid. Induced pipeline currents intensify.
Spacecraft – Systems may experience surface charging; increased drag on low earth orbit satellites, and tracking and orientation problems may occur.
Navigation – Satellite navigation (GPS) degraded or inoperable for hours.
Radio – HF (high frequency) radio propagation sporadic or blacked out.
Aurora – Aurora may be seen as low as Alabama and northern California.

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Strongest solar storm in nearly 6 years slams into Earth catching forecasters by surprise

The most powerful solar storm in nearly six years slammed Earth today (March 24), but strangely, space weather forecasters didn't see it coming.

The geomagnetic storm peaked as a severe G4 on the 5-grade scale used by the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) to assess the severity of space weather events. The storm's unexpected ferocity not only made auroras visible as far south as New Mexico in the U.S., but it also forced spaceflight company Rocket Lab to delay a launch by 90 minutes.

Geomagnetic storms are disturbances to Earth's magnetic field caused by solar material from coronal mass ejections (CME) — large expulsions of plasma and magnetic field from the sun's atmosphere. It turns out that this particular geomagnetic storm was triggered by a "stealth" CME which — as the name suggests — is rather tricky to detect.

NOAA's National Space Weather Service originally announced a "geomagnetic storm watch" on March 22(opens in new tab), to come into effect on 23-25 March with possible moderate G2 storm conditions expected on March 24. So forecasters weren't completely caught off-guard, they however didn't expect a magnitude G4 storm.

It wasn't until 00:41 a.m. EDT ( 0441 GMT) on March 24 that NOAA uprated the warning to a severe G4 storm, which was after a stronger than forecasted G3 storm (opens in new tab)escalated to a G4 at 12:04 a.m. EDT (0404 GMT).

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Impulsive X1.2 solar flare erupts
An impulsive solar flare measuring X1.2 at its peak erupted from AR 3256 at 02:33 UTC on March 29, 2023. The event started at 02:18 and ended at 02:40 UTC.

There were no radio signatures suggesting a coronal mass ejection (CME) was produced. Even if it was, the location of this region does not favor Earth-directed CMEs.

Radio frequencies were forecast to be most degraded over the West Pacific Ocean, parts of eastern China and Russia, Vietnam, Laos, Thailand, Cambodia, Japan, Philippines, Indonesia, Papua New Guinea and Australia.

Region 3256 is now approaching the west limb and will start its farside rotation in a couple of days.

Solar activity was at low levels until this solar flare and is expected to be at low levels, with a slight chance for M-class flares through March 31.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels and the greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels with a peak flux of 1 810 pfu observed at GOES-16 at 14:20 UTC on March 28.1

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background levels through March 31. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach high levels through March 31, possibly decreasing to moderate levels on March 30 with the arrival of the next negative polarity CH HSS.

Solar wind parameters were mostly at background levels in 24 hours to 00:30 UTC on March 29. The IMF was relaxed with total field averaging around 6 nT and Bz undergoing few if any significant southward deviations. Wind speeds were unreliable from DSCOVR given the low density environment, but ACE showed speeds generally at 400 km/s or less. The phi angle was oriented in a negative solar sector towards the Sun. Nominal levels are expected to continue through March 29 and the first half of March 30. Another negative polarity CH HSS is forecast to arrive midday on March 30, with elevated levels of activity lasting through March 31.

The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels on March 29. Mostly quiet levels are expected on March 29 and the first half of March 30.

Active conditions are expected starting midday on March 30 through March 31 with the onset of a negative polarity CH HSS. There is also a chance for G1 – Minor geomagnetic storms on March 30 and 31 with this activity.