SPC geeft nu al een waarschuwing voor 'dag 7' oftewel volgende week dinsdag.
Is dat niet erg vroeg?
quote:
THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS BEGIN THE DAY 4 TO 8 PERIOD WITH AN
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE GREAT PLAINS AND MOVE THIS FEATURE EWD
INTO THE MS VALLEY ON SATURDAY/DAY 4 INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. ON
SUNDAY/DAY 5...THE ECMWF AND GFS MOVE AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS
THE GREAT PLAINS AND RETURN MOISTURE NWD AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM. THE
MODELS SUGGEST THAT AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT COULD DEVELOP SUNDAY
AFTERNOON ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN PLAINS BUT DIFFER ON THE AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY THAT WILL BE IN PLACE. ON MONDAY/DAY 6...BOTH THE ECMWF
AND GFS CONTINUE TO INCREASE MOISTURE ACROSS THE SRN AND CNTRL
PLAINS WHERE A CORRIDOR OF MODERATE INSTABILITY COULD DEVELOP MONDAY
AFTERNOON. BOTH SOLUTIONS MOVE A SHORTWAVE RIDGE NEWD ACROSS THE SRN
AND CNTRL PLAINS MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT AND SHOW AN UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH APPROACHING THE SRN PLAINS ON TUESDAY/DAY 7. THE MODELS
SUGGEST A DRYLINE ORGANIZES ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS DURING THE DAY ON
TUESDAY WITH THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG AND EAST OF THE DRYLINE
LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE ECMWF SOLUTION ALSO SHOWS THE EXIT
REGION OF A MID-LEVEL JET OVERSPREADING THE SRN PLAINS ON TUESDAY.
THE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT AND HAVE SHOWN ENOUGH RUN TO RUN
CONSISTENCY TO ADD A 15 PERCENT CONTOUR FOR PARTS OF CNTRL AND NORTH
TX...OK...SRN KS...NW AR AND FAR SW MO FOR TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT. A SEVERE WEATHER EVENT WITH TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL AND WIND
DAMAGE WILL BE POSSIBLE. ON WEDNESDAY/DAY 8...THE MODEL SOLUTIONS
SHOW SOME VARIANCE WITH THE ECMWF EJECTING THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
ENEWD ACROSS THE MS VALLEY WHILE THE GFS IS SLOWER KEEPING THE
INSTABILITY AXIS BACK OVER THE SRN PLAINS. ALTHOUGH A SEVERE THREAT
APPEARS PROBABLE TO DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF THE SCNTRL U.S. ON
WEDNESDAY...WILL GO PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW DUE TO MODEL DIFFERENCES.