El Nino 2015 - 2016 zwaarste ooit ?

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Kans op El Niņo flink toegenomen

De kans dat er dit jaar een El Niņo komt is met 50 procent toegenomen, meldt een Australisch meteorologisch instituut dinsdag. Dat baseert zich op zes internationale weermodellen die laten zien dat de watertemperatuur in het midden van de Grote Oceaan is gestegen.
Het weerfenomeen El Niņo zorgt over de hele wereld voor extreem weer. 'De Kleine Jongen' brengt bijvoorbeeld enorme droogte in Zuidoost-Azië en Australië, terwijl Zuid-Amerika te maken krijgt met hevige regen. Dit heeft invloed op de wereldvoedselproductie.

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Is El Niņo about to make its presence known?

Surface waters have warmed dramatically over the far eastern tropical Pacific over the last several weeks, and the water temperatures are now assuming a more classic El Niņo configuration that’s been absent for the last few months, with prominent warming just off the coast of South America. Computer models are remarkably consistent on projecting a strengthening of El Niņo conditions over the next few months. All eight international models surveyed by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology on March 16 indicated that at least moderate El Niņo conditions should be in place by August (i.e., sea-surface temperatures at least 1.0°C above average over the Niņo3.4 region). However, in a March 31 update, the BOM cautions: “Model outlooks spanning February to May . . . have lower confidence than forecasts made at other times of year. Some models currently show some spread in their outlooks for tropical Pacific Ocean temperatures, indicating that while further warming is indeed very likely, there remains some ambiguity about the amount of warming expected.”

One hallmark of El Niņo across the U.S. is split flow, with the polar jet stream retreating to the north and the subtropical jet stream intensifying across the southern tier of states. This pattern tends to keep unstable air shunted toward the Gulf Coast, hiking the chance of severe weather there (especially in Florida) but reducing the odds over the nation’s heartland.

Long-range models for mid-April are suggesting an El Niņo-flavored pattern may emerge, with prominent split flow (see Figure 2, below). This is partly related to an intense Madden-Julian Oscillation event, the strongest on record (see our March 18 post), whose impacts are now reaching the eastern tropical Pacific and reinforcing the trend toward El Niņo conditions. On its heels, a strong downwelling (or warming-phase) oceanic Kelvin wave will be pushing slowly eastward within the eastern equatorial Pacific over the next month, according to WSI’s Michael Ventrice. “This should favor increased organized thunderstorm activity over the eastern tropical Pacific basin, which will act to accelerate the subtropical jet stream over the U.S. through the end of spring,” says Ventrice. “This spells heavy precipitation threats (including some severe weather) across the southeastern tier of the nation over the upcoming months under the developing split-flow type pattern.”

Unfortunately, next week’s strong western trough may bypass California, further reducing hope of an “Awesome April” that might take a dent out of the severe drought and heat now plaguing the state. If a strong El Niņo were to develop and persist, it could increase the likelihood of substantial rain in California during the 2015-16 wet season.

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New insight on how El Niņo, La Niņa shape severe weather risk
A paper published this month in Nature Geoscience elaborates on how the odds of U.S. severe weather in late winter and spring tend to be boosted by La Niņa and diminished by El Niņo. The authors, led by John Allen (International Research Institute for Climate and Society, or IRI), acknowledge that it’s difficult to examine the connection between the El Niņo/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and severe weather. The datasets are imperfect (not all tornadoes or severe hailstorms get reported), and there’s a great deal of variability from year to year. “Trying to tease out an ENSO signal from both the natural noise and the human noise becomes quite complicated,” said coauthor Michael Tippett (Columbia University) in an IRI news release. “You can’t get a robust correlation using the observational record alone.” In this new study, the state of ENSO from 1979 to 2012 is compared not only with actual severe reports but also with the environmental factors associated with severe weather, such as instability and vertical wind shear, thus enabling the results to be analyzed more comprehensively. The study is the first to examine ENSO’s relationship to severe hail.

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In line with previous work by others, the largest influence found by the IRI team in winter (December-February) is across southern Texas and Florida, where the risk of tornadoes is roughly doubled during El Niņo events. Prior studies had been inconclusive for springtime, but the IRI group found a significant ENSO influence focused across parts of northern Texas, Oklahoma, and Arkansas (see Figure 3), where the risk of tornadoes and severe hail rises dramatically during La Niņa and drops during El Niņo. There’s some asymmetry in this response: while not every El Niņo event puts a dent in the region’s severe weather, La Niņa events almost always push the likehood of tornadoes or severe hail above the climatological norm. “Naturally, this is only a simple model for the influence of ENSO on hail/tornadoes, and there needs to be more complexity added moving forward,” Allen told me in an email. He and colleagues are now looking into how variations in the strength of ENSO across a severe weather season might influence the outcome.

Given the weak El Niņo event now under way, the IRI team is calling for slightly enhanced odds of a less-active severe season than usual. Allen explains the forecast in a video clip on IRI’s website.

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UPDATE 1-Ocean warming suggests 50 pct chance of El Nino-Australia

(Reuters) - Recent warming of the Pacific Ocean may signal an El Nino weather event is forming, the Australian Bureau of Meteorology said on Tuesday.

Climate models indicate the central tropical Pacific Ocean is likely to continue to warm, with El Nino thresholds to be reached or exceeded by mid-year, the weather bureau said.

"There is about a 50 percent chance of El Nino developing in the coming months, which is twice the normal likelihood," the bureau said.

Should an El Nino eventuate, the system would likely bring below-average winter and spring rainfall over eastern Australia and above-average daytime temperatures over the southern half of Australia.

Such climatic conditions would prove a blow for Australian wheat production, which is reliant on rains in winter and spring.

Wheat production is expected to total 24.39 million tonnes in the 2015/16 season starting July 1, Australia's chief commodity forecaster said this month, up 3 percent from this year's 23.61 million tonnes.

Wheat production from Australia's east coast has suffered two consecutive seasons of poor production as dry weather curbed yields.

Another season of poor wheat production from Australian east coast farmers will also extend the headwinds for GrainCorp Ltd , the country's largest bulk grain handler.

GrainCorp said in February its 2015 full-year earnings are expected to hit a five-year low as drought along the east coast curbs grain production.

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The latest updates from NOAA (see PDF) and the Australian Bureau of Meteorology confirm that the El Niņo event that began in earnest this spring continues to build. NOAA reports that sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) in the closely watched Niņo3.4 region of the eastern tropical Pacific were 1.2°C above average last week, well into the range associated with moderate El Niņo events (+1.0°C to +1.5°C). Based on another marker, the Multivariate ENSO Index, this El Niņo event is already into the “strong” category. All of the Niņo monitoring regions had SSTs of at least 1.2°C above average last week, making for the most widespread oceanic warmth since the landmark El Niņo event of 1997–98. Policymakers and investors are already taking note of the potential implications of the intensifying El Niņo for agriculture and the economy.

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Computer models are in firm agreement that El Niņo conditions will strengthen further during the latter part of 2015. All eight of the international models tracked by BOM show Niņo3.4 readings of 1.5°C or higher by October (see Figure 2), and several exceed 2.0°C, suggesting that the strongest event since 1997–98 may well be in the cards. Some models predicted that a significant El Niņo would emerge in mid-2014, but that didn’t happen, largely because the atmosphere failed to respond to oceanic shifts that often kick off El Niņo. This time, the atmosphere and ocean are much more in sync, so we can put more trust in the current model outlooks—especially now that we’re past the “spring predictability barrier” that makes early-year forecasts of El Niņo so tough. In today’s update, NOAA is calling for a greater than 90% chance that El Niņo will continue through the northern fall of 2015, and around an 85% chance it will last through the winter of 2015-16.

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Op vrijdag 12 juni 2015 10:55 schreef I-care het volgende:
Stel dat het zou gebeuren, kunnen wij er dan nog iets mee? Dan zijn we toch veel te laat, en anticiperen op dergelijke situaties lijkt mij een enorme investering, die zeer moeilijk te voorspellen is en daardoor dus amper op gang zal komen?

In het geval van voedselschaarste bv is dat behoorlijk eng. Maar wat kunnen wij er realistich gezien mee.

USA: Crabs in the THOUSANDS turn Californian beach red

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Thousands of crabs invade Californian beach

The tiny tuna crabs are typically found further South in waters adjacent to Mexico

Beachgoers in southern California expecting the typical pristine shores may have been surprised to find the coast dotted with thousands of tiny red crabs in recent weeks.

Scientists say that the tuna crabs, typically around three inches in length, are typically found further South in waters adjacent to Mexico. They likely made their way North as a result of unusually warm water in the Pacific Ocean, in part due to the El Niņo weather pattern. Because they spend time swimming through the water, rather than on the seafloor, they’re affected by winds and currents that may push them to shore.

This isn’t the first time tuna crabs have appeared on California shores, but it’s certainly not a regular occurrence. Warm currents from the South every five years may be the cause, according to the Los Angeles Times.

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Boeren vrezen weerravage El Niņo

Signalen van een aanzwellende El Niņo, met stormen en extreme droogte, nemen toe. Dit zware weerfront kan de productie van maīs en sojabanen de grootproducenten Australië, Verenigde Staten en Latijns-Amerika fors raken.

Dat constateert ABN Amro in een overzicht van de agrarische markten dat donderdagochtend verschijnt. De markt kijkt met een scherp oog hoe de oogsten wereldwijd beīnvloed kunnen worden door het fenomeen El Niņo, omdat meer of minder aanbod voor producenten uiteindelijk de prijzen in de winkels gaat bepalen.

Chinese speculant stapt in

Naast de al ingezette droogte zorgt ,,de toenemende kans op een zwaardere El Niņo'', bij de al langer tegenvallende prijzen voor metalen en energie, dat veel vermogende Chinese speculanten overstappen en beleggen in grondstoffen. Zij rekenen met hun speculatieve belegging op stevige prijsverhoging door de verstoring van het weer als El Niņo tot volle kracht komt rond de evenaar, aldus ABN Amro-sectoreconoom Frank Rijkers.

De prijzen voor maīs - wereldwijd gebruikt in diervoeder - en sojabonen waren aanvankelijk gezakt door grote voorraden, wereldwijde economische crisis en omdat boeren veel dachten te kunnen produceren.

Forse prijsdaling eerst

Sinds begin juli, de traditionele start van het graanseizoen, waren de prijzen voor tarwe, maīs en sojabonen nog gedaald met respectievelijk 18%, 13% en 5%.
Inmiddels zijn de alweer prijzen aangetrokken naar het hoogste niveau in twaalf maanden. En dat tempo, mede gevoed door El Niņo, neemt toe: in anderhalve week tijd stegen de noteringen voor tarwe bijvoorbeeld met 22%, maīs won 17% in prijs en sojabonen 10% in prijs.
Al met al liggen ze nog op een laag niveau in vergelijking met de afgelopen jaren, aldus sectoreconoom Rijkers van ABN Amro.

El Niņo kan toeslaan

,,Ondanks dat de verwachting is dat de bodemprijzen zijn bereikt, kan een nieuwe dip niet volledig worden uitgesloten'', stelt hij. Een sterkere Amerikaanse dollar kan voor druk op met name de tarweprijzen zorgen.

De afgevlakte groei van de Chinese economie zal zorgen dat maīs en sojabonen gaan zakken in prijs en boeren wereldwijd een slecht jaar bezorgen.

Omdat de olieprijs ook al fors is gedaald, is er vanuit de industrie ook minder behoefte om ethanol als brandstof uit maīs te halen. Er is immer voldoende aanbod aan ruwe olie, aldus ABN Amro.
Beleggers zijn al niet happig op grondstoffen als beleggingen; ebt dat vertrouwen verder weg, dan kan dat ook bijdragen tot een verdere prijsdaling.

Zee warmt snel op

Maar een wat sterkere El Niņo, die een vernietigende werkiing op oogsten heeft gehad, neemt in sterkte wereldwijd rond de evenaar toe. De temperatuur van de zee warmt momenteel op. In de Verenigde Staten nemen zorgen toe.

“We hebben nog geen signaal van deze omvang gezien sinds de tropische stormen van 1997”, verwees een zegsman van de Amerikaanse ruimtevaartorganisatie NASA onlangs naar een van de twee zwaarste weerfronten in de recente geschiedenis. “Het is niet zeker dat we een sterke El Niņo krijgen, maar de signalen worden sterker.''

Zware regenbuien
Naast de droogte op akkers in bijvoorbeeld Indonesië kan El Niņo tot enorme regenbuien en stormen leiden: boven Californië zouden zich buien opeen gaan hopen die in korte tijd net zoveel neerslag kunnen brengen als deze zesde economie van de wereld normaal in een seizoen krijgt.

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El Nino could make 2015 'the hottest year on record'... and 2016 will be even hotter

The slowdown in global warming is likely to end within two years as the Earth’s climate system undergoes a radical shift that could push temperatures to record highs this year and next, according to the Met Office.

The findings will demolish claims by climate sceptics that the slowdown in the rate of global warming over the past 17 years proves that scientists’ concerns are exaggerated.

And it will put further pressure on world leaders to agree strong action to curb carbon emissions at a key UN climate change summit in Paris in December – regarded as crucial if global warming is to be limited to 2C, beyond which the consequences become increasingly devastating.

The research predicts the world has entered what could be one of the strongest El Niņo events in the past century – a change to the climate system that increases the world’s temperature by warming the Pacific Ocean and which can be hugely damaging, causing droughts and extreme weather all over the world.

It forecasts that this El Niņo event could be at least as strong as in 1997-98, which caused deadly mudslides in South America, a crippling drought in South-east Asia and extreme weather in many other parts of the world.

It could also push the average global temperature – which hit a record high in 2014 and is expected to increase again this year – to a third consecutive record in 2016. At the same time, the rate at which the temperature rises could enter a period of higher increases, at a similar level to that seen before the slowdown began.

“Global mean temperatures in 2014, 2015 and 2016 are likely to be at or near record levels... It is now likely that decadal warming rates will reach late 20th century levels in the next couple of years,” said Professor Adam Scaife, of the Met Office Hadley Centre. Apart from potentially pushing the world into record temperatures, El Niņo has already weakened the Indian monsoon season and has increased the risk of droughts in South Africa, Indonesia and Australia. It could also be a force for good, potentially bringing rain to California which has suffered drought.

El Niņo events typically last nine months to two years, although they can potentially go on for four years.

The research, peer-reviewed by the University of Reading’s Professor Rowan Sutton, has also identified a second major change to the climate system – which is likely to warm the planet further, again by increasing the temperature of the Pacific Ocean.

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Strong El Nino could bring Big Freeze to UK
With the strongest El Niņo weather pattern since 1950 predicted, the United Kingdom could be in for an extremely cold and snowy winter, meteorologists there are saying.

Conditions could match the winter of 2009-2010, the say, a season so cold and long-lasting it has been dubbed "The Big Freeze."

During that winter heavy snowfall, up to 19 inches in some areas, threw the country's transport system into chaos, closing airports and requiring train service to be suspended.

An average temperature across the country of 30 degrees Fahrenheit was the coldest ever recorded since record-keeping began, the U.K. Met Office says.

Forecasters are predicting the strongest El Niņo since 1950, which was also one of the snowiest years on record for the U.K.

In an El Niņo event, warming areas of ocean water in the central and east-central equatorial regions of the Pacific Ocean release vast amounts of heat into the atmosphere, causing changes in weather patterns around the world.

One of those effects sees the polar jet streams move further south, increasing snowfall in the Northern Hemisphere's winter.

"This time round El Niņo could be the strongest in decades," says Met Office meteorologist Thomas Shafernaker.

"In Europe sometimes winters end up much colder and drier and last much into spring" with a strong El Niņo, he explains. "In 2010, the El Niņo played a part in bringing huge amounts of snow to the U.K."

The developing El Niņo – the phenomenon occurs around every 2 to 7 years – will likely bring drought to Australia and Asia while the west coasts of North and South America could see huge increases in rainfall over the next few months as the weather pattern peaks between October and January, forecasters say.