When it comes to the Eurovision final, a late draw position does offer countries a better chance of success with generally higher average points over the past decade of Eurovision finals being associated with those countries that have received the later draw positions. However, it is interesting to note that being drawn to perform in last place is not the best draw position statistically to get in a Eurovision final, as opposed to the trend noted earlier for the Eurovision semi-finals. Indeed, no act has won a Eurovision final when performing last on the night (although there have been a number of semi-final wins from this draw position) since Yugoslavia’s Riva won in 1989 with Rock Me. Indeed, an analysis of past voting patterns suggest that being drawn to perform in third-last position in a final is a better draw position to get statistically than being drawn to perform last or second-last on the night.
The best draw positions to get statistically based on this analysis, after the third-last position in the running order (24th in the case of tonight’s final), would be the 17th and 18th positions in the Eurovision final running order, although a number of the later positions in the running order – 21st, 22nd and 25th – are also associated with higher than average points levels. In the earlier part of the show, the 10th and 11th positions in the Eurovision final running order are seen to be best to get in the first half of the show based on voting patterns in previous contests. The worst draw position to get, according to the past voting statistics, in a Eurovision final is the 2nd draw position, with the next worst being the 4th and 9th positions in the running order. The 3rd place draw position proves not to be the worst to get in statistical terms in a final, as opposed to the case for semi-finals where the 3rd place position in the running order is statistically the worst one to get. But along with the first, 15th and 26th positions in the running order, the 3rd place draw position can be shown to still compare unfavourably with other potential draw positions.
Dat zou dus betekenen pech voor:
Engeland
Oekraine
Wit Rusland
Polen
IJsland
Rusland
geen kanshebbers
En geluk voor:
Oostenrijk
Hongarije
Nederland
Malta
Finland
Slovenië
geen kanshebbers
En god zag dat YouCanLeaveYourHeadOn gelijk had.