Live blog van FOK! met links naar vorige dagenquote:Tijdlijn van de ontwikkelingen in Oekraïne
- 21 november 2013
President Viktor Janoekovitsj maakt bekend dat de regering niet van plan is een samenwerkingsverdrag met de Europese Unie te tekenen, maar in plaats daarvan de banden met buurland Rusland wil aanhalen. Betogers gaan de straat op.
- 30 november
Beelden van betogers die tot bloedens toe zijn geslagen door agenten met gummiknuppels duiken overal op. Steeds meer mensen sluiten zich aan bij de betogers.
- 1 december
Een demonstratie op het Onafhankelijkheidsplein in Kiev trekt driehonderdduizend betogers. Het is de grootste demonstratie sinds de Oranjerevolutie in 2004. Activisten bezetten het gemeentehuis van de hoofdstad.
- 17 december
De Russische president Vladimir Poetin maakt bekend dat Moskou voor 15 miljard aan Oekraïense staatsobligaties koopt en de gasprijs verlaagt.
- Eind december
De protesten in Kiev blijven tienduizenden mensen trekken, maar de opkomst is een stuk lager dan begin december, toen honderdduizenden mensen zich aansloten bij de protestbeweging.
- 22 januari 2014
Drie betogers komen tijdens vechtpartijen met de politie om het leven. Demonstranten richtten barricades op.
- 28 januari
De Oekraïense premier Mykola Azarov maakt het aftreden van de regering bekend. Het besluit is bedoeld als een concessie aan de protestbeweging. Strenge wetten die de protestbeweging moest beperken in haar bewegingsvrijheid worden herroepen.
- 16 februari
Oppositieleden en demonstranten maken een einde aan de bezetting van het gemeentehuis in Kiev in ruil voor de vrijlating van alle 234 betogers die waren opgepakt en vastgezet.
- 18 februari
Betogers vallen linies van de politie aan en stichten brand bij het parlementsgebouw, nadat een grondwetshervorming die de macht van de president moet inperken, was blijven steken in het parlement. De oproerpolitie reageert met geweld in een poging de betogers te verdrijven van het Onafhankelijkheidsplein. Zeker 26 mensen komen om het leven en honderden raken gewond.
- 20 februari
Enkele uren na de afkondiging van een wapenstilstand breekt opnieuw geweld uit. Scherpschutters van de regering nemen betogers vanaf daken onder vuur. Van de 82 slachtoffers die in totaal omkomen vallen de meesten op deze dag.
- 21 februari
Protestleiders en president Janoekovitsj komen na bemiddeling van de Europese Unie overeen een nieuwe regering te vormen en vervroegde verkiezingen te houden. Het parlement perkt de rechten van de president in en zijn politieke rivaal, Joelia Timosjenko, wordt vrijgelaten uit de gevangenis. Ondanks de overeenkomst blijven de betogers op het Onafhankelijkheidsplein. Janoekovitsj ontvlucht Kiev.
- 22 februari
Het parlement stemt in met de afzetting van Janoekovitsj en besluit tot nieuwe verkiezingen. Timosjenko komt vrij en spreekt tienduizenden mensen op het Onafhankelijkheidsplein toe.
- 23 februari
Het parlement van Oekraïne draagt de bevoegdheden van de president over aan voorzitter van het parlement Oleksandr Toertsjinov, een bondgenoot van Timosjenko. De nieuwe autoriteiten vragen het Westen om leningen om een naderend bankroet te voorkomen. Pro-Russische betogers op de Krim gaan de straat op om te protesteren tegen de nieuwe regering. De Krim is een schiereiland in Oekraïne met een autonome status, waar de Russische Zwarte Zeevloot is gelegerd.
- 24 februari
De interim-regering in Kiev vaardigt een arrestatiebevel uit tegen Janoekovitsj. De Russische premier Dmitri Medvedev schildert de nieuwe leiders van het land af als mensen in bivakmutsen met kalasjnikovs.
- 26 februari
Leiders van de Oekraïense protestbeweging stellen voor om Arsenij Jatsenjoek aan te wijzen als premier. In Moskou geeft president Vladimir Poetin het leger opdracht tot paraatheidsoefeningen bij de grens met Oekraïne.
- 27 februari
Gemaskerde en gewapende lieden bezetten overheidsgebouwen op de Krim. De Oekraïense regering belooft met steun van het Westen een opsplitsing van Oekraïne te voorkomen. Janoekovitsj wijkt uit naar Rusland.
- 28 februari
Volgens de Oekraïense regering hebben Russische militairen positie gekozen op strategische plekken op de Krim. Het Oekraïense parlement neemt een resolutie aan waarin van Rusland wordt geëist dat maatregelen die in strijd zijn met de soevereiniteit en territoriale integriteit van Oekraïne worden teruggedraaid. Toertsjinov maakt bekend dat hij het leger in opperste staat van paraatheid heeft gebracht vanwege de mogelijke agressie.
- 1 maart
Russische militairen nemen de Krim over zonder een schot te lossen. Poetin krijgt van de Federatieraad toestemming om het leger in te zetten in Oekraïne. De regering in Kiev en haar westerse bondgenoten staan machteloos. De Amerikaanse president Barack Obama belt Poetin en eist dat hij zijn militairen terugtrekt.
- 2 maart
Oekraïne roept de hulp van de internationale gemeenschap in uit vrees voor een Russische invasie. Aanhangers van de regering en haar tegenstanders gaan in diverse steden in Oekraïne en in Moskou de straat op. Volgens de Verenigde Staten heeft Rusland meer dan zesduizend militairen naar de Krim gestuurd. De G7, de groep zeven rijkste landen op aarde, schorten voorbereidende gesprekken voor een G8-top in Rusland op.
- 3 maart
Pro-Russische militairen bezetten een veerbootterminal in Kersj, in het oosten van de Krim. De vrees dat Rusland voorbereidingen treft om meer militairen naar de Krim te sturen neemt toe.
- 6 maart
Zowel de Europese Unie als de Verenigde Staten besluiten om maatregelen te nemen tegen Rusland. Als de Russische regering besluit niet in gesprek te gaan over de crisis in Oekraïne volgen hardere sancties. De voormalige Oekraïense premier Joelia Timosjenko roept het westen op om snel in te grijpen en dat Rusland gebruikt maakt van de zwakte van het Westen.
- 7 maart
"Er komt geen oorlog met Oekraïne". Dat zegt de voorzitter van het hogerhuis van het parlement in Rusland, Valentina Matvijenko. Ze zegt zeker te weten dat er nooit een oorlog tussen de twee “broedernaties” zal komen.
- 8 maart
De Oekraïne benadrukt opnieuw dat het de Krim nooit zal opgeven.
- 10 maart
De regering in Kiev geeft aan dat het bespreekbaar is dat de Krim en het oosten van het land meer autonomie kunnen krijgen. De NAVO maakt bekend dat men meer vliegtuigen langs de grens met Oekraïne stationeert om de situatie te volgen. AWACS-vliegtuigen zullen oa vanuit Polen en Roemenië opereren. De EU gaat ondertussen verder met de voorbereiding van sancties tegen Rusland.
- 11 maart
Lavrov (Rusland) en Kerry (VS) bespreken opnieuw de Oekraïne. Tot een akkoord leidt dit niet maar er wordt afgesproken verder met elkaar te blijven praten. De Krim maakt bekend dat ze de oorlogsschepen van de Oekraïne in beslag wil nemen.
- 13 maart
Demonstranten uit het Pro-Russische kamp raken slaags met demonstranten die de Oekraïne steunen in Donetsk. Daarbij valt één dode. De Oekraïense interim-premier Arseni Jatsenjoek spreekt openlijk in de VN-veiligheidsraad en uit zijn bezorgdheid. Tevens benadrukt hij dat Oekraïne geen oorlog wil. Zijn Russische ambtsgenoot in de VN zegt hetzelfde. Rusland brengt inmiddels meer en meer troepen naar de grens met de Oekraïne. "Een grootschalige militaire oefening", aldus de Russen.
- 14 maart
Rusland maakt een nieuw dreigement aan de Oekraïne. De Russen zeggen dat het duidelijk is dat de regering in Kiev de situatie in het oosten van de Oekraïne niet in de hand heeft en dreigt met ingrijpen. In Londen praten de Russische minister van Buitenlandse Zaken, Sergei Lavrov, en zijn Amerikaanse tegenhanger John Kerry met elkaar. Het topoverleg levert niets op.
- 15 maart
Zoals verwacht blokkeert Rusland met een veto een stemming in de VN-veiligheidsraad waarbij de uitslag van het Krim-referendum ongeldig wordt verklaard. China onthield zich van stemming, alle overige leden stemden voor het voorstel. Zaterdag meldde de Oekraïense regering dat de Russen een dorp net buiten de Krim hebben ingenomen. In die plaats, Strilkove, staan een gasfabriek en een verdeelcentrum die de Krim van energie voorzien
- 16 maart
Het referendum op de Krim vindt plaats. 96,6 % van de kiezers zou voor afscheiding hebben gestemd. De opkomst zou rond de 83% hebben gelegen.
- 17 maart
De EU en VS stellen nieuwe sancties op tegen Rusland. Onder andere de tegoeden van individuen die betrokken waren bij de onrust op de Krim worden bevroren. De Oekraine noemt het referendum van zondag een farce en blijft bij hun standpunt de Krim niet op te willen geven. Rusland wil een steungroep Oekraïne oprichten om landsdelen meer autonomie toe te kennen. Oekraïense veiligheidstroepen hebben de bewaking van de gasleidingen elders in het land opgevoerd.
- 18 maart
De Russische president Poetin gaat akkoord met de conceptwet waarbij annexatie Krim door Rusland een feit zou zijn. In april zijn ze in staat om de 'roebel’ te herinvoeren. Japan maakt bekend ook sancties tegen Rusland in te stellen.
quote:John McCain: Russia is a ‘gas station’Sen. John McCain lit into Russia and President Vladimir Putin on Wednesday, describing Russia as “a gas station masquerading as a country” on the Senate floor.
While most of their colleagues were at a party lunch, McCain and Sens. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) and Kelly Ayotte (R-N.H.) took a broadside to Putin and Russia, portraying the country’s government as little other than a petrochemical exporter.
“I have no illusions or worry about the long-term future of Russia. Russia is now a gas station masquerading as a country,” McCain said.
“They are an oil and gas company masquerading as a country,” agreed Graham.
But in addition to their zingers, the hawkish GOP stalwarts also raised grave concerns that Putin will be emboldened by the easy manner in which the Crimean Peninsula was seized by Russia. They worry that Moldova, or Eastern Ukraine could be next.
“The value system of Mr. Putin is that of a KGB colonel,” Graham said. “I understand where he is coming from because of his value system. I just don’t agree with it. But what we can’t do is let him affect those who are living around him who want to go a different path, because the day you begin to do that, it never works out well. In World War II, every time somebody gave Hitler a little of this and a little of that, eventually it never works out well.”
“Vladimir Putin’s forces are on the border of Eastern Ukraine right now, and they are poised to invade. They even have forces in Belarus and Vladimir Putin is figuring out the cost-benefit ratio to moving into Ukraine,” McCain added.
quote:
Ukraine's combat dolphins fall into Russian hands after Crimea takeover
By Roland Oliphant in Simferopol
Russian forces have completed their takeover of the Ukrainian navy's assets in Crimea with the storming of the minesweeper Cherkessy.
The Ukrainian navy has been reduced to only 10 vessels, with the other 51 it held at the beginning of this month, including its only submarine, now flying the Russian flag.
But of all the Ukrainian military assets Russia has seized during the annexation, none is quite as unusual as the combat dolphin programme.
The Soviet Union began training dolphins and other marine mammals to locate mines, mark underwater obstacles and detect - and if necessary kill - enemy frogmen in the 1960s. The programme is shrouded in myth, but the dolphins are believed to have been trained to kill frogmen with special harpoons or knives fitted to their backs, or drag them to the surface to be captured.
They were also reported to be fitted with packets of explosives and trained to carry out suicide attacks against enemy vessels, using their natural sonar to distinguish Soviet submarines from potential targets.
With the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991, Ukraine inherited the animals and the experts who trained them at Sevastopol.
With fewer geopolitical foes to worry about, the dolphins found a new role providing therapy swimming for disabled children.
quote:
Ukraine relaunched the military programme in 2012 and the current generation of dolphins is already proficient at marking lost weapons and underwater obstacles with buoys. But last month, the defence ministry in Kiev announced plans to release the dolphins into the wild or rehouse them in civilian aquariums in a cost-cutting move.
Now the base is hoping for a new lease of life under a better funded Russian navy. "Our experts have developed new devices, which convert the detection of objects by the dolphins' underwater sonar to a signal on an operator's monitor," an employee told Russia's RIA Novosti news agency yesterday.
"But the Ukrainian navy lacked the funds for such know-how."
The programme has not always run smoothly, however. In March last year three dolphins reportedly "deserted" to look for mates.
The only other country to train military dolphins is the US, which runs a programme in California.
Much like Soviet-era military equipment, "graduates" of the academy are reportedly to be found in militaries around the world. In 2000, Boris Zhurid, a former submariner who ran the training programme in Sevastopol, sold 27 marine animals including walruses, sea lions and a Beluga whale to Iran, saying he had run out of food and medicine for them at the Black Sea base. It is unclear whether the animals are still in the service of the Iranian military.
Enquote:- 23 februari
Het parlement van Oekraïne draagt de bevoegdheden van de president over aan voorzitter van het parlement Oleksandr Toertsjinov
Er moet nog even bij dat deze twee niet bevoegd zijn om wetten uit te vaardigen of de grondwet te wijzigen omdat ze niet democratisch gekozen zijn. Het enige dat ze mogen doen is lopende zaken behandelen en nieuwe verkiezingen regelen. Maar ze hebben wel wetten uitgevaardigd en ook nog eens de grondwet terug gedraaid.quote:- 26 februari
Leiders van de Oekraïense protestbeweging stellen voor om Arsenij Jatsenjoek aan te wijzen als premier
Achja, alles eraan doen om de militaire overname van gebied en materiaal goed te praten. Rusland is ondertussen groter geworden, dat is pas een probleem.quote:Op donderdag 27 maart 2014 08:09 schreef DustPuppy het volgende:
Een voorzitter van een parlement wordt toch niet verkozen door de kiezers maar door de volksvertegenwoordigers zelf (die dus wel gekozen zijn).
Dat is hier niet anders.
Next stop: Transnistrië!quote:Op donderdag 27 maart 2014 08:22 schreef firefly3 het volgende:
[..]
Achja, alles eraan doen om de militaire overname van gebied en materiaal goed te praten. Rusland is ondertussen groter geworden, dat is pas een probleem.
Als ze straks polen hebben ingenomen zitten mensen nog steeds te zeuren over fascisten, terroristen en andere uit hun band gerukte verhaaltjes en theorietjes plus conplotten.quote:
Ik mag aannemen dat we dan toch al wel in oorlog zijn.quote:Op donderdag 27 maart 2014 08:35 schreef firefly3 het volgende:
[..]
Als ze straks polen hebben ingenomen zitten mensen nog steeds te zeuren over fascisten, terroristen en andere uit hun band gerukte verhaaltjes en theorietjes plus conplotten.
Mijn scenario voor oorlog:quote:Op donderdag 27 maart 2014 08:38 schreef DustPuppy het volgende:
[..]
Ik mag aannemen dat we dan toch al wel in oorlog zijn.
De VN lijkt me nu een minder afwachtende houding aan te nemen dan de Volkerenbond van weleer.
quote:The real front in US-Russia 'Cold War'? Nuclear power
The new Cold War brewing between Russia and the U.S. has the potential to go nuclear—just not in the conventional sense.
In the wake of the Ukraine crisis, a debate has ensued about whether the U.S. can use natural gas to counter Russia's global ambitions. However, some experts say the real front in the global energy battle lies not in oil and gas, but in the arena of nuclear technology.
Moscow has quietly taken the lead in the $500 billion market for nuclear exports, building the lion's share of new facilities—and by extension earning influence and good will in key regions around the globe—as the U.S. sits on the sidelines.
Fueled in part by its bounty in natural gas and oil, Russia has transferred nuclear technology to a host of countries, including Hungary, Venezuela, Turkey and, most controversially, Iran. According to the World Nuclear Association, Moscow is building 37 percent of the new atomic facilities currently under construction worldwide, while nearly doubling its own domestic output by 2020.
"The Russians view nuclear as an excellent export product," said Barbara Judge, former chair of the U.K. Atomic Energy Authority, in an interview with CNBC. "They are using it as part of their plan to establish themselves as a geopolitical economic power."
http://www.cnbc.com/id/101507755
Het ziet er allemaal minder rooskleurig uit voor de Putin en de Russen.quote:Putin's Russia caught in US and Chinese double-pincer
Mr Putin is discovering that global finance is more frightened of the US Securities and Exchange Commission than Russian T90 tanks
Russia's Vladimir Putin has committed a grave strategic blunder by tearing up the international rule book without a green light from China. Any hope of recruiting Beijing as an ally to blunt Western sanctions looks doomed, and with it the Kremlin's chances of a painless victory, or any worthwhile victory at all.
Mr Putin was careful to thank China's Politburo for its alleged support in his victory speech on Crimea. Foreign minister Sergei Lavrov has been claiming with his usual elasticity that “Russia and China have coinciding views on the situation in Ukraine.”
This is of course a desperate lie. China did not stand behind Russia in the UN Security Council vote on Crimea, as it had over Syria. It pointedly abstained. Its foreign ministry stated that “China always sticks to the principle of non-interference in any country’s internal affairs and respects the independence, sovereignty, and territorial integrity of Ukraine.”
We don't know exactly what China's Xi Jinping told President Barack Obama at The Hague this week it clearly had nothing in common with the deranged assertions of the Kremlin. The US deputy national security adviser Ben Rhodes appeared delighted by the talks, claiming afterwards that Russia could no longer count on backing from its "traditional ally".
If so, Mr Putin is snookered. He cannot hope to escape financial suffocation by US regulatory muscle, should he send troops into Eastern Ukraine or even if he tries to stir up chaos in the Russian-speaking Donbass by means of agents provocateurs.
Nor can he hope to turn the tables on the West by joining forces with China to create a Eurasian bloc, a league of authoritarian powers in control of vast resources. Such an outcome is the obsession of the 'Spenglerites', the West's self-haters convinced that the US is finished and that dollar will soon be displaced by the Eurasian Gold Ducat -- odd though that may seem at a time of surging oil and gas output in the US, and an American manufacturing revival.
The reality is that China is breaking Russia's control over the gas basins of Central Asia systematically and ruthlessly. Turkmenistan's gas used to flow North, hostage to prices set by Gazprom. It now flows East. President Xi went in person last September to open the new 1,800 km pipeline to China from the Galkynysh field, the world's second largest with 26 trillion cubic meters.
It will ultimately supply 65 BCM, equal to half Gazprom's exports to Europe. Much the same is going on in Kazakhstan, where Chinese companies have taken over much of the energy industry. The politics are poignantly exposed in Wikileaks cables from Central Asia. A British diplomat is cited in a 2010 dispatch describing the "Chinese commercial colonization" of the region, saying Russia was "painfully" watching its energy domination in Central Asia slip away.
Yet more revealing is a cable quoting Cheng Guoping, China's ambassador to Kazakhstan, warning that Russia and China are on a collision course, and China will not be the one to yield. "In the future, great power relations in Central Asia will be complicated, delicate. The new oil and gas pipelines are breaking Russia's monopoly in energy exports."
Mr Cheng not only expressed "a positive view of the US role in the region" but also suggested that NATO should take part as a guest at talks on the Shanghai Cooperation group -- allegedly the Sino-Russian answer to EU/NATO -- in order to "break the Russian monopoly in the region." That word "break" again. So there we have it in the raw, what really goes on behind closed doors, so far removed from the pieties of a Moscow-Beijing axis.
There was much anguish about such an axis in the 1960s, then based on Communist fraternity. Henry Kissinger saw through it, suspecting that the two hostile cultures were at daggers drawn along their vast borders -- "Four Thousand Kilometres of Problems" to cite the title of a 2006 opus by Moscow writer Akihero Ivasita.
George Walden exposes deep roots of this mistrust in his superb little book "China: A Wolf in the World?". As a diplomat in Russia and then in China -- one of the tiny handful of Westerners in Beijing through the Cultural Revolution -- he saw first-hand how the Marxist brotherhood had come to loathe each other. Indeed, they came close to nuclear war. The CIA and State Department were dumbfounded by his accounts at a debriefing in Washington. They had no sources on the ground in Mao's era.
Mr Walden says the Chinese have never forgiven Russia for seizing East Siberia under the Tsars, the "lost territories". They want their property back, and they are getting it back by ethnic resettlement across the Amur and the frontier regions, much as Mexico is retaking California and Texas by the Reconquista of migration.
The population of far Eastern Siberia has collapsed to 6.3m from over 8 million twenty years ago, leaving ghost towns along the Trans-Siberian Railway. Russia has failed to make a go of its Eastern venture. With a national fertility rate of 1.4, chronic alcoholism, and a population expected to shrink by 30m to barely more than 110m by 2050 -- according to UN demographers, not Mr Putin's officials -- the nation must inexorably recede towards its European bastion of Old Muscovy. The question is how fast, and how peacefully.
Jonathan Fenby, a China expert at Trusted Sources, said there is a faction within China's National Security Council that wishes to "line up with Russia" over Ukraine, hoping to exploit the crisis to gain better terms on gas, food, and raw materials. These voices have been overruled by Xi Jinping. He plays on a more sophisticated strategic stage.
China is likely to walk a tightrope, "hiding its brilliance and biding its time" as the saying goes. This will becomes a harder if the Ukraine crisis escalates. Beijing may have to choose. It is surely unlikely that imperious Xi Jinping will throw away the great prize of G2 Sino-American condominium to rescue a squalid and incompetent regime in Moscow from its own folly.
Mr Putin must realize by now how fatally isolated he has become, and how dangerous it would be to go a step further. Even Germany's ever-forgiving Angela Merkel has lost patience, lamenting an "unbelievable breakdown of trust." Enough of Europe's gas pipelines have been switched to two-way flows since 2009 to help at least some of the vulnerable frontline states, if he tries to pick off the minnows one by one. Eight EU countries have liquefied natural gas terminals. Two more will join the club this year, in Poland and Lithuania.
The EU summit text last week was a call to arms. Officials have been ordered to draft plans within 90 days to break dependence on Gazprom. Even if this crisis blows over, Europe will take radical steps to find other sources of energy. Imports of Russian may be slashed by half within a decade.
Capital flight from Russia reached $70bn in the first quarter. Russia's central bank cannot defend the rouble without tightening monetary policy, driving the economy deeper into recession in the process. Russian banks and companies must roll over $155bn of foreign debts over the next twelve months in a hostile market, at a premium already over 200 basis points.
Mr Putin is discovering that global finance is more frightened of the US Securities and Exchange Commission than Russian T90 tanks. Any sanction against any oligarch linked to any Russian company could shut it out of global capital markets, potentially forcing default. Creditors in the West would be burned. But nobody cares about them once national security is at stake, something markets have been slow to grasp.
Nor has he chosen a good moment for his gamble. Europe's gas tanks are unusually full. The price of oil is poised to fall -- ceteris paribus -- as Iraq's output reaches a 35-year high, the US adds a million barrels b/d a day this year from shale, and Libya cranks up exports again. The International Energy Agency says global supply jumped by 600,000 b/d last month. Deutsche Bank predicts a glut. So does China's Sinopec. Mr Putin needs prices near $110 to fund his budget. He may face $80 before long.
At the end of the day he has condemned Russia to the middle income trap. The windfall from the great oil boom has been wasted. Russia's engineering skills have atrophied. Industry has been hollowed out by the Dutch Disease: the curse of over-valued currency, and reliance on commodities.
He jumped the gun in Ukraine, striking before the interim government had committed any serious abuses or lost global goodwill, a remarkably sloppy and impatient Putsch for a KGB man. He took Germany for a patsy, and took China for granted. He has gained Crimea but turned the Kremlin into a pariah for another decade, if not a generation, and probably lost Ukraine forever. It is a remarkably poor trade.
http://www.telegraph.co.u(...)e-double-pincer.html
twitter:hubertsmeets twitterde op donderdag 27-03-2014 om 09:02:53US-inlichtingendienst acht kans op invasie in O.Oekraine en zelfs Moldavie en deel Balticum groter dan eerst gedacht. http://t.co/ODhSFqrphC reageer retweet
Ik denk dat hij er niet ver vanaf zit.quote:Op donderdag 27 maart 2014 09:23 schreef Stephen_Dedalus het volgende:
[..]
Het ziet er allemaal minder rooskleurig uit voor de Putin en de Russen.
De media portretteert Europa graag als een amechtig, noodlijdend wezen dat maar wat graag in de schoot van de VS kruipt, maar ik denk dat de West-Europese mogelijkheden tot het aanboren van andere energievoorzieningen wordt onderschat. Er is echt wel wat economische slag- en daadkracht binnen Europa. Ik denk ook dat Poetin zijn hand een beetje heeft overspeeld.quote:Op donderdag 27 maart 2014 09:23 schreef Stephen_Dedalus het volgende:
[..]
Het ziet er allemaal minder rooskleurig uit voor de Putin en de Russen.
Dat denk ik ook. De EU is meestal een bron van veto's en trage vooruitgang maar op het gebied van rusland zijn ze redelijk eensgezind. Je ziet trouwens ook al jaren dat met name frankrijk bezig is om gas uit noord afrika te betrekken.quote:Op donderdag 27 maart 2014 10:23 schreef Mystikvm het volgende:
[..]
De media portretteert Europa graag als een amechtig, noodlijdend wezen dat maar wat graag in de schoot van de VS kruipt, maar ik denk dat de West-Europese mogelijkheden tot het aanboren van andere energievoorzieningen wordt onderschat. Er is echt wel wat economische slag- en daadkracht binnen Europa. Ik denk ook dat Poetin zijn hand een beetje heeft overspeeld.
Wel machtig interessant om dit spel te zien, zolang het niet teveel levens verwoest, natuurlijk.
Las vandaag een stuk op de Correspondent over Transnistrië, en dat die mensen maar wat graag bij Rusland willen horen. Sluit wel een beetje aan bij het beeld wat ik al had van die regio.
Lijkt me vooral iemand die een boek wil verkopen.quote:Op donderdag 27 maart 2014 09:23 schreef Stephen_Dedalus het volgende:
[..]
George Walden exposes deep roots of this mistrust in his superb little book "China: A Wolf in the World?". As a diplomat in Russia and then in China -- one of the tiny handful of Westerners in Beijing through the Cultural Revolution -- he saw first-hand how the Marxist brotherhood had come to loathe each other. Indeed, they came close to nuclear war. The CIA and State Department were dumbfounded by his accounts at a debriefing in Washington. They had no sources on the ground in Mao's era.
Onwaarschijnlijk, Russisch gas zal de goedkoopste oplossing blijven voor Europa.quote:The EU summit text last week was a call to arms. Officials have been ordered to draft plans within 90 days to break dependence on Gazprom. Even if this crisis blows over, Europe will take radical steps to find other sources of energy. Imports of Russian may be slashed by half within a decade
"the US adds a million barrels b/d a day this year from shale"? Lijkt me erg optimistisch, men verwacht een stijging met 2.4 miljoen over acht jaar, wat gemiddeld 0.3 miljoen per jaar is. $80/ per vat lijkt ook een wensdroomquote:Nor has he chosen a good moment for his gamble. Europe's gas tanks are unusually full. The price of oil is poised to fall -- ceteris paribus -- as Iraq's output reaches a 35-year high, the US adds a million barrels b/d a day this year from shale, and Libya cranks up exports again. The International Energy Agency says global supply jumped by 600,000 b/d last month. Deutsche Bank predicts a glut. So does China's Sinopec. Mr Putin needs prices near $110 to fund his budget. He may face $80 before long.
Daarnaast is het maar de vraag of Putin momenteel baat zou hebben bij hoge energieprijzen. Het zou de roep om strengere sancties nog versterken.quote:Oil: Price above $100, traders shrug off jump in supplies
The price of oil rose above $100 a barrel Wednesday as the market looked beyond a large increase in oil supplies.
Benchmark U.S. crude for May delivery gained $1.07 to $100.26 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Brent crude, a contract for international varieties of oil, added 4 cents to $107.03 on the ICE Futures exchange in London.
A report from the Energy Department for the week ended March 21 showed crude oil supplies rose by 6.3 million barrels, more than double the gain of 2.6 million barrels expected by analysts, according to Platts. However, supplies at the oil hub in Cushing, Okla., where benchmark U.S. oil is priced, fell by 1.3 million barrels. And gasoline supplies dropped by 5.1 million barrels, a much bigger drop than analysts anticipated.
http://www.tulsaworld.com(...)88-0017a43b2370.html
Als Rusland morgen geen gas meer zou exporteren dan hebben ze een 15% stijging van de olieinkomsten nodig om het verlies te compenseren.quote:Op donderdag 27 maart 2014 10:09 schreef icecreamfarmer_NL het volgende:
[..]
Ik denk dat hij er niet ver vanaf zit.
De EU is al decennia bezig om minder afhankelijk van rusland te worden en het laatste decennium zijn er grote slagen gemaakt die alleen maar versneld zullen worden.
En zonder de gasinkomsten is het kremlin nergens.
Maar die prijs staat ook onder druk.quote:Op donderdag 27 maart 2014 10:57 schreef meth1745 het volgende:
[..]
Als Rusland morgen geen gas meer zou exporteren dan hebben ze een 15% stijging van de olieinkomsten nodig om het verlies te compenseren.
Het gas kost de Russen weinig, transport is ook goedkoop dankzij de pijpleidingen, daarom kunnen ze altijd de goedkoopste prijs aanbieden. Natuurlijk hangt dat af van de beschikbare alternatieven, zijn die er niet dan vragen ze wat ze willen. Europa heeft vooral alternatieven nodig om een lagere prijs met de russen te onderhandelen, niet om ze daadwerkelijk te gebruiken.quote:Op donderdag 27 maart 2014 10:58 schreef icecreamfarmer_NL het volgende:
[..]
Maar die prijs staat ook onder druk.
Overigens snap ik je opmerking over de goedkoopste optie niet.
Vooral de oost-europese staten worden uitgeknepen met hoge gasprijzen.
En gezien hun veiligheid willen ze daar graag vanaf.
De yield van moderne kernwapens (de kracht van de explosie) is instelbaar.quote:A sub-strategic role: The SDR also defined a sub-strategic role for the Trident nuclear deterrent alongside its principal strategic function. It stated:
The credibility of deterrence also depends upon retaining an option for a limited strike that would not automatically lead to a full scale nuclear exchange. Unlike Polaris and Chevaline, Trident must also be capable of performing this 'sub-strategic' role.
In comparison with a strategic strike, which would involve a full-scale attack against an adversary in which all or a significant part of the available Trident force would be launched, a sub-strategic strike would involve the launch of one or a limited number of missiles against an adversary as a means of conveying a political message, warning or demonstration of resolve. Commodore Hare told us that this sub-strategic role "offers the Government of the day an extra option in the escalatory process before it goes for an all-out strategic strike which would deliver unacceptable damage to a potential adversary". Although the Government has revealed little information about the precise number and yield of UK warheads, it is widely believed that Trident missiles intended for this sub-strategic role carry only a single warhead, potentially with a significantly reduced yield.
http://www.publications.p(...)dfence/986/98605.htm
quote:Angela Merkel miffed at Nuclear war game
The Hague: German Chancellor Angela Merkel did not enjoy what other leaders did at the ongoing nuclear security summit in The Netherlands — a ‘nuclear war game’.
The German chancellor grumbled at being asked to play games and take tests with the Prime Minister, US and Chinese presidents around a table with dozens of heads of state at a nuclear summit in The Hague, the report said.
The nuclear war game was a computer test based on the scenario that if an atomic bomb was to hit any of their metropolitan cities what steps would they take — would they inform the people or would they accede to the demands of the terrorist organisation?
US President Barack Obama helped make the game and the test was also aimed at being impulsive and without the aid of any advisers. In a competitive environment, with a ticking clock, the leaders had to make rapid choices before the results were presented to the group, anonymously stripped of their identities and followed by discussion.
http://www.deccanchronicl(...)fed-nuclear-war-game
(foto is toegevoegd)
quote:Western governments see continuing Russian buildup on Ukraine border
(Reuters) - U.S. and European security agencies estimate Russia has deployed military and militia units totaling more than 30,000 people along its border with eastern Ukraine, according to U.S. and European sources familiar with official reporting.
The current estimates represent what officials on both sides of the Atlantic describe as a continuing influx of Russian forces along the Ukraine frontier, the sources said.
The 30,000 figure represents a significant increase from a figure of 20,000 Russian troops along the border that was widely reported in U.S. and European media last week.
But U.S. and European security sources noted that these estimates are imprecise. Some estimates put current troop levels as high as 35,000 while others still suggest a level of 25,000, the sources said.
However, the sources said that U.S. and European government experts believe that there has been, and continues to be, a steady and noticeable buildup in the total number of Russian forces along the Ukrainian border, though some military units have rotated in or out of the area.
U.S. and European security sources said that the Russian force deployed along the Ukraine border includes regular military including infantry and armored units and some air support.
Also deployed are militia or special forces units comprised of Russian fighters, wearing uniforms lacking insignia or other identifying markings, similar to the first Russian forces to move into Crimea during Russia's recent military takeover there.
U.S. officials said that what Russian President Vladimir Putin actually plans to do with his forces deployed on the Ukraine border is unknown. Some officials say intelligence information available to policymakers regarding what Putin is thinking, and what he is saying to his advisors and military commanders, is fragmentary to non-existent.
But the portents are potentially ominous. "No one's ruling out the possibility of additional Russian military aggression," one U.S. official said.
U.S. President Barack Obama was non-committal when asked about the 30,000 Russian troops estimate at a news conference in The Hague on Tuesday.
"With respect to the Russian troops that are along the border of Ukraine at the moment, right now they are on Russian soil. And if they stay on Russian soil, we oppose what appears to be an effort of intimidation, but Russia has a right, legally, to have its troops on its own soil. I don't think it's a done deal. And I think that Russia's still making a series of calculations," Obama said.
http://www.reuters.com/ar(...)dUSBREA2P22120140326
quote:Poll: Ukraine Crisis Hurts Obama Approval Ratings
WASHINGTON March 26, 2014 (AP)
By CONNIE CASS and JENNIFER AGIESTA Associated Press
Foreign policy used to stand out as a not-so-bleak spot in the public's waning assessment of Barack Obama. Not anymore. He's getting low marks for handling Russia's swoop into Ukraine, and more Americans than ever disapprove of the way Obama is doing his job, according to a new Associated Press-GfK poll.
Despite the poor performance reviews, Obama's primary tactic so far — imposing economic sanctions on key Russians — has strong backing.
Close to 9 out of 10 Americans support sanctions as a response to Russia's annexation of the Crimean Peninsula, the poll indicates. About half of that group says the U.S. sanctions so far are about right, while the other half wants to see them strengthened, the AP-GfK poll found.
Most Democrats say the sanctions were OK, while a majority of Republicans find them too weak.
"We're supposed to be a country that helps smaller countries in need," said Christopher Ashby, 29, a Republican in Albemarle, N.C., who wants a more powerful response. "Ukraine at this time is definitely in need."
Ashby, a stay-at-home dad caring for three young daughters, said, "When I look at Obama, I see my 5-year-old daughter looking at something that just happened and saying, 'What do I do?'"
Overall disapproval of the job Obama is doing ticked up to 59 percent — a record high for his presidency — in the poll released Wednesday. That's still well below the 72 percent disapproval rate that former President George W. Bush recorded in the AP-GfK poll in October 2008. Still, Obama's 41 percent approval rating is a sobering number for fellow Democrats running in this fall's House and Senate elections.
http://abcnews.go.com/Pol(...)-obama-home-23069843
quote:Ukraine agrees to 50% gas price hike amid IMF talks
Ukraine's interim government says it will raise gas prices for domestic consumers by 50% in an effort to secure an International Monetary Fund (IMF) aid package.
An official at Ukraine's Naftogaz state energy company said the price rise would take effect on 1 May, and further rises would be scheduled until 2018.
Ukrainians are accustomed to buying gas at heavily subsidised rates. But the IMF has made subsidy reform a condition of its deal.
Ukraine currently buys more than half of its natural gas from Russia's Gazprom, and then sells it on to consumers at below market prices.
Yury Kolbushkin, budget and planning director at Naftogaz, told reporters that gas prices for district heating companies would also rise by 40% from 1 July.
IMF negotiators are still in Kiev to negotiate a package of measures worth billions of dollars to help Ukraine's interim government plug its budget deficit and meet foreign loan repayments.
Deal expected
The IMF is also asking Ukraine to crack down on corruption and end central bank support for the Ukrainian currency.
On Tuesday, Ukraine's finance minister Olexander Shlapak said the country was seeking $15-20bn (£9-12bn) from the IMF. The Financial Times has reported that a rescue package worth about $15bn is close to being agreed, and could be announced as early as Thursday.
An agreement with the IMF is necessary to unlock further financial support from the EU and US.
Financial help is urgently required as Ukraine has been forced to plunder its foreign currency reserves, and the economy is expected to contract by 3% this year, according to the country's finance ministry.
In the US, arguments in Congress over reforms to the IMF have held up plans to offer Ukraine $1bn in loan guarantees.
The EU says its financial support, potentially worth 1.6bn euros (£1.3bn) is contingent on the IMF deal being agreed.
http://www.bbc.com/news/business-26758788
quote:Crimean chief prosecutor Natalia Poklonskaya ‘wanted’ by Ukraine's security service
Ukrainian national security service has put Crimea’s chief prosecutor Natalia Poklonskaya on its wanted list. She is charged of taking actions aimed at the violent overthrow of constitutional order and takeover of government power.
Poklonskaya took the office as Crimea defied the coup-imposed government in Kiev and sought independence from Ukraine. After the peninsula joined the Russian Federation, she was appointed as Crimea's acting chief prosecutor by Russia’s General Prosecutor Yury Chaika.
The Ukrainian National Service for Security and Defense accuse her of violating article 109 of the Criminal Code, which deals with overthrow of the government.
Poklonskaya became somewhat of an internet sensation due you relative youth, attractive appearance and emotional media conferences. A number of anime-style drawings of the official are currency circulation on the web, with many supporters calling her ‘kawaii prosecutor’ after the Japanese term for cuteness.
The now-wanted in Ukraine officer of the law is somewhat irritated with her web popularity, she told the media, because it undermines the serious nature of her job.
Last week the Ukrainian security service said it was investigating 22 alleged cases under Article 109. Seven of the alleged ‘separatists’, as Kiev calls them, are under arrest. Among those charged are several leaders of protests in eastern Ukraine, which defied the new authorities.
http://rt.com/news/prosecutor-poklonskaya-wanted-crimea-349/
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