Orkaan Sandy op ramkoers met Amerikaanse oostkust

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Op donderdag 25 oktober 2012 12:27 schreef Frutsel het volgende:

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GFS gaat langzaam aan toch mee met de andere modellen.

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Irene bedoel je?

En tja... afwachten... kustlijn is daar in elk geval niet bestand tegen een flinke orkaan.
Gisteren stond er ook niet op de verwachting dat Sandy uberhaupt categorie 2 zou halen.
In post #19 staat zo'n beetje zo'n doomscenario volgens mij.

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Op donderdag 25 oktober 2012 12:27 schreef aloa het volgende:

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Als het allemaal uitkomt, dan wordt dit een stuk erger. Deze gaat n.l. het land op en dat deed Irene vorig jaar niet (niet in dat gebied). Deze kan zelfs voor sneeuwstormen gaan zorgen verder landinwaarts.
Wat schade betreft staat die van vorig jaar op nummer 10. ($15,800,000,000).

http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/usdeadly.asp

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Op woensdag 24 oktober 2012 14:37 schreef YazooW het volgende:
Eerste visible van vandaag

[ afbeelding ]

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Op donderdag 25 oktober 2012 19:56 schreef aloa het volgende:
nog een beach cam http://74.228.46.36/view/index.shtml

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Op donderdag 25 oktober 2012 21:07 schreef aloa het volgende:

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Hurricane Sandy Seen From Space | Video

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At 11 a.m. EDT, tropical-storm-force winds extended up to 140 miles (220 km) from the center, making Sandy more than 280 miles in diameter. By 2 p.m. EDT, just more than three hours later, Sandy had grown. Sandy's tropical storm-force-winds now extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km) from the center, making the storm about 410 miles in diameter.
High res foto 7400x9800

http://www.nasa.gov/missi(...)012/h2012_Sandy.html

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SANDY IS EXPECTED TO GROW LARGER IN SIZE DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT3+shtml/252035.shtml

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Isn't it strange that a hurricane in the Bahamas would somehow turn into a monster mega-storm and slam into the Northeast at the end of October? Aren't hurricanes supposed to weaken as they move north over cold water? What the hell is going on?

The answers are... yes, yes, and we're not completely sure. This is a beyond-strange situation. It's unprecedented and bizarre. Hurricanes almost always bend out to sea in October, although there have been some exceptions when storms went due north, but rarely. No October tropical systems in the record book have turned left into the northeast coast.

The strong evidence we have that a significant, maybe historic, storm is going to hit the east coast is that EVERY reliable computer forecast model now says it's going to happen. The only way we can forecast the weather four or five days days from now is with the aid of these super-complex computer programs run on supercomputers. The two best, the European and the U.S. GFS (Global Forecast System) run by NOAA, are now in reasonable agreement that there IS going to be an extraordinarily unusual confluence of events that results in a massive storm.

The upper-air steering pattern that is part of the puzzle is not all that unheard of. It happens when the atmosphere gets blocked over the Atlantic and the flow over the U.S. doubles back on itself. Sometimes big winter storms are involved.

The freak part is that a hurricane happens to be in the right place in the world to get sucked into this doubled-back channel of air and pulled inland from the coast.

And the double-freak part is that the upper level wind, instead of weakening the storm and simply absorbing the moisture - which would be annoying enough - is merging with the tropical system to create a monstrous hybrid vortex. A combination of a hurricane and a nor'easter.

At least that's what the models are saying. And since all of the independent models are saying something similar, we have to believe them and be ready.

For most people being ready means getting to the store and getting stuff before everybody else gets wise and gets the stuff first. The forecast is for an incredibly widespread and long-duration windstorm, meaning power will likely be out for an extended period of time in a lot of locations.

A transistor radio is your best friend in a situation like this. Get one and enough batteries to keep it going. Your cell phone may or may not be your friend after a big storm.

For people near the coast, it's critical that you pay attention to local evacuation orders and emergency information. This storm, as forecast, will create dangerous and potentially life-threatening storm surge along hundreds of miles of coastline north of where the center comes ashore. Big storms move a lot of water, and this one is about as big as they come.

Right now, it looks like the storm center will land between the Delmarva and New Jersey, which would put the entire Tri-State area of NJ, NY, and Connecticut on the bad side of the storm. The Jersey Shore, Long Island, and New York City itself would be exposed to the brunt of the storm surge due to the "L" in the coastline at NYC. The angle and duration of the wind will keep the water high for an extended period of time, if this comes together as forecast. This means transportation disruptions and widespread coastal damage.

If the storm comes in farther south, the Delmarva, Delaware Bay and maybe the Chesapeake will be at risk. A storm the size that's forecast would cause problems throughout New England as well, even if the center is south of New York. And then there is the threat from flooding rain and the extremely heavy snow well inland.

To make all this worse along the coast, the moon is full on Monday, meaning the high tides will be higher yet.

The hope we have is that the computer models are not handling this unusual situation well, and are predicting a stronger storm than we get. But, we can't bet of it. Even a weaker version will likely mean a nightmare for millions.

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Worst Storm in 100 Years Seen for Northeast U.S.

Hurricane Sandy will probably grow into a “Frankenstorm” that may become the worst to hit the U.S. Northeast in 100 years if current forecasts are correct.

Sandy may combine with a second storm coming out of the Midwest to create a system that would rival the New England hurricane of 1938 in intensity, said Paul Kocin, a National Weather Service meteorologist in College Park, Maryland. The hurricane currently passing the Bahamas has killed 21 people across the Caribbean, the Associated Press reported, citing local officials.

“What we’re seeing in some of our models is a storm at an intensity that we have not seen in this part of the country in the past century,” Kocin said in a telephone interview yesterday. “We’re not trying to hype it, this is what we’re seeing in some of our models. It may come in weaker.”

The hybrid storm may strike anywhere from the Delaware- Maryland-Virginia peninsula to southern New England. The current National Hurricane Center track calls for the system to go up Delaware Bay and almost directly over Wilmington, Delaware, just southwest of Philadelphia, on Oct. 30-31.

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e.net/p/2s.gif[/img] Op 26 oktober 2012 20:11 schreef aloa het volgende:
Gaat flink tekeer hier in Florida

http://www.surfguru.com/florida-surf-reports/new-smyrna-beach

twitter:

BigJoeBastardi twitterde op vrijdag 26-10-2012 om 21:12:40 ECMWF has shifted further north and the witches brew of modeling now has New York City as the center of the pick your poison potion reageer retweet

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Sandy zwakt af tot tropische storm
_{Toegevoegd: zaterdag 27 okt 2012, 11:58}

De orkaan Sandy, die waarschijnlijk maandag de Amerikaanse oostkust bereikt, is afgezwakt tot een tropische storm. Dat meldt het National Hurricane Centre.

Meteorologen hielden rekening met een scenario dat Sandy zich onder invloed van een krachtig koufront zou ontwikkelen tot een superstorm. Media in de Verenigde Staten hadden Sandy al omgedoopt tot "Frankenstorm". Volgens de laatste voorspelling lijkt het dus mee te vallen, al kan ook een tropische storm nog veel schade veroorzaken. Veel bomen staan nog in blad en kunnen daardoor gemakkelijk omver worden geblazen.

Waar Sandy precies aan land komt is nog niet duidelijk. De computermodellen geven nog geen uitsluitsel. De overlast aan de oostkust zal waarschijnlijk enkele dagen duren doordat Sandy zich maar langzaam verplaatst.

Sandy heeft ook gevolgen voor de slotfase van de campagne voor de presidentsverkiezingen. Zo heeft de Republikein Mitt Romney een bijeenkomst die voor zondagavond in de staat Virginia gepland stond afgelast.

Sandy heeft in het Caraïbisch gebied een spoor van vernielingen aangericht, vooral in Cuba en Haïti. Zeker 40 mensen zijn daar om het leven gekomen.